ATP

Model record

Every game since Oct 10, 2026, settled against the first line we captured (games spread and moneyline). Simulated 1 unit a game, not real bets.

The model's side is the favorite when its margin is bigger than the line's, the underdog when smaller. Lines are DraftKings first. Pushes return the stake; postponed, cancelled, walkover and retired games are no action.

2–3 on the games spread · since Oct 10

40.0% hit rate · break-even 51.2% at the prices taken

-1.0 units at 1 a game · ROI -20.6%

5 settled games: at this size the hit rate could be off by about ±43 points either way, far too few to separate skill from luck.

0 no action · 0 pending · 11 with no position (the model matched the market, or no price was posted).

Model's side vs the line	Result	Units
Mon, Oct 12 →
Paul T. -2.0Vacherot V. 6, Paul T. 12	✓ covered	+0.98
Fils A. -4.0Van De Zandschulp B. 13, Fils A. 9	✗ didn't cover	-1.00
Lehecka J. -2.0Jodar R. 17, Lehecka J. 16	✗ didn't cover	-1.00
Fritz T. -2.0Fritz T. 14, Tsitsipas S. 16	✗ didn't cover	-1.00
Ruud C. +2.0Ruud C. 13, Tien L. 10	✓ covered	+0.99

Games spread