ATP Tennis predictions Fri, Oct 30
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every ATP match. Methodology →
7 tour-level matches on this slate · 73–48 since Oct 20 (model V4) →
17 Challenger matches · Challenger: 24–22 since Oct 27 (model V4) →
Games
Basel
#46
Vacherot
Rune
Set at line Rune 54.8% · model 57.0%
Biggest factor: Return edge: Rune breaks 14% vs 11% · Rune +2.5 pts
#7
Fils
#5
Fritz
Set at line Fritz 47.6% · model 50.7%
#56
Struff
Set at line Borges 44.7% · model 62.7%
Biggest factor: Return edge: Borges breaks 18% vs 13% · Struff +5.1 pts
Vienna
#4
Medvedev
#101
Mannarino
Set at line Medvedev 80.0% · model 89.1%
Biggest factor: Return edge: Medvedev breaks 35% vs 13% · Mannarino +22.4 pts
#2
Alcaraz
Set at line Alcaraz 76.8% · model 78.9%
Biggest factor: Return edge: Alcaraz breaks 30% vs 15% · Paul +14.7 pts
#66
Fery
#3
Zverev
Set at line Fery 14.1% · model 16.0%
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Zverev holds 92% vs 76% · Zverev +15.2 pts
#12
De Minaur
#32
Berrettini
Set at line Berrettini 33.8% · model 34.8%
Biggest factor: Return edge: De Minaur breaks 19% vs 13% · Berrettini +6.2 pts
ATP Challenger 17 matches
Brest Challenger
#39
Prizmic
#220
Cina
Set at line Prizmic 66.2% · model 75.3%
Biggest factor: Return edge: Prizmic breaks 27% vs 15% · Cina +12.2 pts
#132
Tabur
#94
Damm
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Damm holds 90% vs 87% · Damm +3.5 pts
#286
Maestrelli
#237
Kouame
Set at line Maestrelli 33.7% · model 42.0%
Biggest factor: Return edge: Kouame breaks 21% vs 17% · Kouame +3.5 pts
#109
Virtanen
#175
Travaglia
Set at line Travaglia 25.8% · model 34.6%
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Virtanen holds 84% vs 77% · Travaglia +6.9 pts
Guayaquil Challenger
#216
Midon
Set at line Midon 53.7% · model 72.3%
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Midon holds 70% vs 57% · Aguilar Cardozo +12.9 pts
#361
Hardt
Set at line Hardt 50.0% · model 56.7%
Biggest factor: Return edge: Hardt breaks 36% vs 33% · Aboian +3.7 pts
#115
Dellien
Set at line Dellien 49.5% · model 90.7%
Biggest factor: Return edge: Dellien breaks 42% vs 16% · Zarate +25.9 pts
Ningbo Challenger
#156
Mayot
Set at line Mayot 73.9% · model 89.7%
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Mayot holds 88% vs 65% · Demin +22.9 pts
#323
Hsu
Biggest factor: Return edge: Hsu breaks 25% vs 24% · Alkaya +1.7 pts
Set at line Bar Biryukov 29.5% · model 40.9%
Biggest factor: Return edge: Cui breaks 14% vs 11% · Cui +3.2 pts
Seoul Challenger
#249
Harris
#137
Sakamoto
Set at line Harris 24.0% · model 26.6%
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Sakamoto holds 89% vs 80% · Sakamoto +9.8 pts
Set at line Chung 37.8% · model 67.5%
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Chung holds 81% vs 72% · Jasika +8.6 pts
Hong
#112
Atmane
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Atmane holds 85% vs 78% · Atmane +7.2 pts
Sioux Falls Challenger
#210
Blanch
#248
Krueger
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Blanch holds 85% vs 80% · Krueger +5.6 pts
#233
Mayo
Set at line Mayo 44.1% · model 44.1%
Biggest factor: Return edge: Rottgering breaks 23% vs 20% · Rottgering +2.7 pts
Wolf
Set at line Dietrich 61.3% · model 66.4%
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Dietrich holds 86% vs 78% · Dietrich +7.1 pts
Set at line Dominko 40.5% · model 44.8%
Biggest factor: Return edge: Rehberg breaks 15% vs 13% · Rehberg +1.9 pts
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 63.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 72.4%
Decimal odds 3.39 / 1.29, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Blanch | Krueger | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 62.7140th of 480 | 60.6225th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 31.9298th of 480 | 33.1236th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.31196th of 480 | 46.86219th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.10210th of 577 | 46.53248th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 64 | 40 |
| Matches rated | 96 | 617 |
Serve and return
| Blanch | Krueger | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 66.6% | 63.2% |
| Return pts won | 36.8% | 33.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 85.5% | 79.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setBlanch 61%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBlanch 66%set by set, before calibration; published 63% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeKrueger 32.8, Blanch 19.1small age adjustment to serve
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 73.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 76.0%
Decimal odds 1.23 / 3.90, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Harris | Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 60.7223rd of 480 | 65.367th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.7262nd of 480 | 32.4277th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.69232nd of 480 | 48.82122nd of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.52249th of 577 | 48.57137th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 46 | 64 |
| Matches rated | 308 | 134 |
Serve and return
| Harris | Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.0% | 69.3% |
| Return pts won | 30.7% | 37.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 79.5% | 89.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setSakamoto 70%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSakamoto 78%set by set, before calibration; published 73% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeSakamoto 20.4, Harris 31.8small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchHarris from grassgames projection only, not the win chance
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 67.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 37.8%
Decimal odds 1.50 / 2.47, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Chung | Jasika | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 60.5 | 56.1401st of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 31.8 | 32.0297th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.18 | 44.06376th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.71 | 43.69433rd of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | – | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | – | 26 |
| Matches rated | 11 | 258 |
Serve and return
| Chung | Jasika | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.8% | 59.4% |
| Return pts won | 40.6% | 36.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 81.0% | 72.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setChung 65%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setChung 71%set by set, before calibration; published 68% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeJasika 29.5, Chung 28.6small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchChung from grassgames projection only, not the win chance
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 89.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 73.9%
Decimal odds 3.59 / 1.27, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Mayot | Demin | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 62.0171st of 480 | 55.8 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 35.4109th of 480 | 29.9 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.66132nd of 480 | 42.84 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.20156th of 577 | 42.38 |
| Wins, last 10 | 8 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 38 | 6 |
| Matches rated | 308 | 21 |
Serve and return
| Mayot | Demin | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 68.0% | 56.0% |
| Return pts won | 44.0% | 32.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 87.6% | 64.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMayot 85%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMayot 94%set by set, before calibration; published 90% after tempering toward 50%
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 66.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 69.5%
Decimal odds 1.34 / 3.05, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Hong | Atmane | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 59.4 | 66.640th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 36.0 | 32.2283rd of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.69 | 49.4097th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.43 | 49.19112th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 2 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 3 | 47 |
| Matches rated | 162 | 272 |
Serve and return
| Hong | Atmane | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.4% | 66.6% |
| Return pts won | 33.4% | 37.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 78.3% | 85.5% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setAtmane 64%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setAtmane 70%set by set, before calibration; published 66% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeAtmane 24.8, Hong 29.3small age adjustment to serve
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 53.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 55.7%
Decimal odds 2.11 / 1.68, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Hsu | Alkaya | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 57.8347th of 480 | 58.7305th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.7199th of 480 | 31.8311th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 45.72288th of 480 | 45.25310th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.41323rd of 577 | 44.91355th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 37 | 34 |
| Matches rated | 213 | 41 |
Serve and return
| Hsu | Alkaya | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.4% | 60.6% |
| Return pts won | 39.4% | 38.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 76.5% | 74.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setHsu 53%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setHsu 54%set by set, before calibration; published 53% after tempering toward 50%
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 59.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 70.5%
Decimal odds 1.32 / 3.16, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Bar Biryukov | Cui | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 62.5146th of 480 | 59.8258th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 25.6470th of 480 | 31.1355th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 44.08374th of 480 | 45.43299th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 43.66437th of 577 | 45.25335th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 43 | 30 |
| Matches rated | 97 | 137 |
Serve and return
| Bar Biryukov | Cui | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 67.0% | 69.4% |
| Return pts won | 30.6% | 33.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 86.1% | 89.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setCui 57%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setCui 61%set by set, before calibration; published 59% after tempering toward 50%
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -4.5
- First line
- -4.5
- Latest
- -4.5
Medvedev -4.5 at +108
- Model
- 89.1%
- First line
- 80.0%
- Latest
- 80.0%
Moneyline Mannarino A. +377 / Medvedev D. -518 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · 8:30 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 8:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Medvedev | Mannarino | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 68.423rd of 480 | 63.6111th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 41.14th of 480 | 35.790th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 54.774th of 480 | 49.6289th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 54.454th of 577 | 49.29101st of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 67 | 56 |
| Matches rated | 713 | 1011 |
Serve and return
| Medvedev | Mannarino | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 67.6% | 56.0% |
| Return pts won | 44.0% | 32.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 87.0% | 64.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setMedvedev 84%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMedvedev 93%set by set, before calibration; published 89% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeMannarino 38.3, Medvedev 30.7small age adjustment to serve
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 75.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 66.2%
Decimal odds 2.76 / 1.41, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Prizmic | Cina | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 63.7109th of 480 | 60.7222nd of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 37.926th of 480 | 33.9185th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.7850th of 480 | 47.29198th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 51.3539th of 577 | 47.02220th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 48 | 49 |
| Matches rated | 185 | 112 |
Serve and return
| Prizmic | Cina | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 66.4% | 59.7% |
| Return pts won | 40.3% | 33.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 85.2% | 72.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setPrizmic 71%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setPrizmic 80%set by set, before calibration; published 75% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeCina 19.6, Prizmic 21.2small age adjustment to serve
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -0.5
- First line
- -1.5
- Latest
- -1.5
Rune -1.5 at -105
- Model
- 57.0%
- First line
- 54.8%
- Latest
- 54.8%
Moneyline Rune H. -135 / Vacherot V. +111 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · 8:30 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 8:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Vacherot | Rune | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 67.728th of 480 | 67.0 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.1171st of 480 | 35.9 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.9345th of 480 | 51.45 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 51.0046th of 577 | 51.41 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 40 | 4 |
| Matches rated | 218 | 343 |
Serve and return
| Vacherot | Rune | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 67.2% | 69.1% |
| Return pts won | 30.9% | 32.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 86.4% | 88.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setRune 56%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setRune 59%set by set, before calibration; published 57% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeRune 23.5, Vacherot 28.0small age adjustment to serve
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -3.5
- First line
- -4.0
- Latest
- -4.0
Alcaraz -4.0 at -107
- Model
- 78.9%
- First line
- 76.8%
- Latest
- 76.8%
Moneyline Paul T. +311 / Alcaraz C. -412 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · 8:30 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 8:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Alcaraz | Paul | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 69.912th of 480 | 67.431st of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 44.21st of 480 | 40.17th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 57.082nd of 480 | 53.7510th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 57.012nd of 577 | 53.7310th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 43 | 64 |
| Matches rated | 412 | 587 |
Serve and return
| Alcaraz | Paul | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 66.0% | 58.3% |
| Return pts won | 41.7% | 34.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 84.6% | 69.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setAlcaraz 74%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setAlcaraz 84%set by set, before calibration; published 79% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgePaul 29.5, Alcaraz 23.5small age adjustment to serve
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 60.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 63.1%
Decimal odds 1.48 / 2.53, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Tabur | Damm | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 63.2124th of 480 | 68.424th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.4153rd of 480 | 31.3345th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.81123rd of 480 | 49.8382nd of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.63132nd of 577 | 49.5294th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 59 | 50 |
| Matches rated | 212 | 187 |
Serve and return
| Tabur | Damm | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 67.5% | 70.2% |
| Return pts won | 29.8% | 32.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 86.8% | 90.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setDamm 58%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setDamm 63%set by set, before calibration; published 60% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeDamm 23.1, Tabur 26.8small age adjustment to serve
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -0.1
- First line
- +0.5
- Latest
- +0.5
Fritz +0.5 at -122
- Model
- 50.7%
- First line
- 47.6%
- Latest
- 47.6%
Moneyline Fritz T. +100 / Fils A. -122 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / BetRivers · 8:30 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / BetRivers · as of 8:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Fils | Fritz | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 69.017th of 480 | 72.04th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 38.715th of 480 | 37.143rd of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 53.858th of 480 | 54.545th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 53.977th of 577 | 54.425th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 50 | 57 |
| Matches rated | 271 | 679 |
Serve and return
| Fils | Fritz | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 68.3% | 68.4% |
| Return pts won | 31.6% | 31.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 87.9% | 88.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setFritz 51%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setFritz 51%set by set, before calibration; published 51% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeFritz 29.0, Fils 22.4small age adjustment to serve
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 72.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 53.7%
Decimal odds 1.90 / 1.64, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Midon | Aguilar Cardozo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 57.7254th of 403 | 54.0365th of 403 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 37.554th of 403 | 36.591st of 403 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 47.59162nd of 403 | 45.24278th of 403 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.05216th of 577 | 44.74365th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 60 | 28 |
| Matches rated | 150 | 27 |
Serve and return
| Midon | Aguilar Cardozo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 58.3% | 52.8% |
| Return pts won | 47.2% | 41.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 69.9% | 57.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMidon 69%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMidon 77%set by set, before calibration; published 72% after tempering toward 50%
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -3.5
- First line
- -4.5
- Latest
- -4.5
Zverev -4.5 at -115
- Model
- 84.0%
- First line
- 85.9%
- Latest
- 85.9%
Moneyline Zverev A. -900 / Fery A. +578 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / BetRivers · 8:30 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / BetRivers · as of 8:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Fery | Zverev | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 63.5113th of 480 | 73.32nd of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 37.047th of 480 | 38.125th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.2467th of 480 | 55.693rd of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 50.2466th of 577 | 55.693rd of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 8 |
| Matches, 12 months | 53 | 77 |
| Matches rated | 154 | 815 |
Serve and return
| Fery | Zverev | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.4% | 71.4% |
| Return pts won | 28.6% | 38.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 76.5% | 91.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setZverev 79%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setZverev 89%set by set, before calibration; published 84% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeZverev 29.5, Fery 24.3small age adjustment to serve
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 55.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 55.9%
Decimal odds 1.67 / 2.12, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Mayo | Rottgering | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.5188th of 480 | 59.1287th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.7263rd of 480 | 35.881st of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.10203rd of 480 | 47.45184th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.76233rd of 577 | 47.33193rd of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 35 | 22 |
| Matches rated | 184 | 37 |
Serve and return
| Mayo | Rottgering | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.9% | 63.4% |
| Return pts won | 36.6% | 38.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 77.4% | 80.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setRottgering 55%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setRottgering 57%set by set, before calibration; published 56% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeRottgering 19.3, Mayo 23.5small age adjustment to serve
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -1.5
- First line
- +0.5
- Latest
- +0.5
Borges +0.5 at -106
- Model
- 62.7%
- First line
- 44.7%
- Latest
- 44.7%
Moneyline Struff J. -138 / Borges N. +113 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / BetRivers · 8:30 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / BetRivers · as of 8:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Borges | Struff | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 66.937th of 480 | 67.034th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 36.464th of 480 | 34.3166th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 51.6835th of 480 | 50.6653rd of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 51.8331st of 577 | 50.4756th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 58 | 57 |
| Matches rated | 361 | 846 |
Serve and return
| Borges | Struff | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 67.7% | 64.4% |
| Return pts won | 35.6% | 32.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 87.1% | 82.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setBorges 60%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBorges 66%set by set, before calibration; published 63% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeStruff 36.5, Borges 29.7small age adjustment to serve
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 58.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 66.3%
Decimal odds 1.37 / 2.70, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Maestrelli | Kouame | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.4195th of 480 | 58.9297th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 31.3350th of 480 | 34.6143rd of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.32252nd of 480 | 46.76227th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.09286th of 577 | 46.63237th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 49 | 37 |
| Matches rated | 295 | 42 |
Serve and return
| Maestrelli | Kouame | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.9% | 64.9% |
| Return pts won | 35.1% | 37.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 79.2% | 82.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setKouame 57%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setKouame 60%set by set, before calibration; published 58% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeKouame 17.7, Maestrelli 23.9small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchMaestrelli from claygames projection only, not the win chance
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 56.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 50.0%
Decimal odds 1.03 / 1.03, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Hardt | Aboian | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 54.7349th of 403 | 55.4333rd of 403 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 36.2104th of 403 | 34.0215th of 403 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 45.40269th of 403 | 44.69302nd of 403 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.80361st of 577 | 44.20400th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 29 | 49 |
| Matches rated | 192 | 140 |
Serve and return
| Hardt | Aboian | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 57.1% | 55.5% |
| Return pts won | 44.5% | 42.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 67.2% | 63.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setHardt 56%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setHardt 58%set by set, before calibration; published 57% after tempering toward 50%
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 66.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 61.3%
Decimal odds 1.52 / 2.41, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Wolf | Dietrich | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.5 | 65.365th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 35.1 | 34.4156th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.26 | 49.8581st of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.95 | 49.6391st of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 9 |
| Matches, 12 months | 6 | 21 |
| Matches rated | 318 | 38 |
Serve and return
| Wolf | Dietrich | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.5% | 66.7% |
| Return pts won | 33.3% | 37.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 78.5% | 85.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setDietrich 64%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setDietrich 70%set by set, before calibration; published 66% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeDietrich 22.1, Wolf 27.9small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchDietrich from claygames projection only, not the win chance
- Days since last event Not in the modelDietrich 4, Wolf 61counted from event start dates
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 90.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 49.5%
Decimal odds 1.01 / 1.03, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Dellien | Zarate | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 61.3136th of 403 | 54.7348th of 403 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 37.941st of 403 | 31.1345th of 403 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 49.6380th of 403 | 42.91369th of 403 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.13115th of 577 | 42.37507th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 8 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 62 | 28 |
| Matches rated | 566 | 43 |
Serve and return
| Dellien | Zarate | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 65.3% | 53.0% |
| Return pts won | 47.0% | 34.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 83.5% | 57.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setDellien 86%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setDellien 94%set by set, before calibration; published 91% after tempering toward 50%
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- -2.5
- Latest
- -2.5
De Minaur -2.5 at -120
- Model
- 65.2%
- First line
- 66.2%
- Latest
- 66.2%
Moneyline Berrettini M. +182 / De Minaur A. -226 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / BetRivers · 8:30 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / BetRivers · as of 8:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| De Minaur | Berrettini | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 66.150th of 480 | 70.011th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 41.05th of 480 | 33.7198th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 53.5612th of 480 | 51.8532nd of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 53.5112th of 577 | 51.8132nd of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 60 | 42 |
| Matches rated | 562 | 445 |
Serve and return
| De Minaur | Berrettini | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 67.9% | 63.9% |
| Return pts won | 36.1% | 32.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 87.3% | 81.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setDe Minaur 63%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setDe Minaur 68%set by set, before calibration; published 65% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeBerrettini 30.5, De Minaur 27.7small age adjustment to serve
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 65.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 74.2%
Decimal odds 3.51 / 1.22, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Virtanen | Travaglia | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 65.075th of 480 | 61.1205th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.5216th of 480 | 35.1123rd of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.23105th of 480 | 48.12158th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.21109th of 577 | 47.70175th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 51 | 58 |
| Matches rated | 291 | 614 |
Serve and return
| Virtanen | Travaglia | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 65.7% | 61.8% |
| Return pts won | 38.2% | 34.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 84.2% | 77.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setVirtanen 63%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setVirtanen 69%set by set, before calibration; published 65% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeTravaglia 34.8, Virtanen 25.4small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchTravaglia from claygames projection only, not the win chance
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 55.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 59.5%
Decimal odds 1.51 / 2.22, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Dominko | Rehberg | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 63.7 | 61.2 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 29.6 | 32.8 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.67 | 47.00 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.40 | 47.01 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 2 | – |
| Matches rated | 14 | 172 |
Serve and return
| Dominko | Rehberg | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 66.5% | 67.8% |
| Return pts won | 32.2% | 33.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 85.3% | 87.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setRehberg 54%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setRehberg 56%set by set, before calibration; published 55% after tempering toward 50%
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →