ATP Tennis predictions Mon, Oct 12
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every ATP match. How it works →
8 matches on this slate · model went 4–4 · 152–82 last 30 days →
Games
Auger Aliassime F.
Carreno-Busta P.
Ruud C.
Tien L.
Jodar R.
Lehecka J.
Fritz T.
Tsitsipas S.
Svrcina D.
Medvedev D.
Van De Zandschulp B.
Fils A.
Alcaraz C.
Bergs Z.
Vacherot V.
Market
Against the first line
- Final
- Auger Aliassime F. 16, Carreno-Busta P. 10
- Result
- Carreno-Busta P. lost by 6
- Why
- Model 30%, first price 27%
Model vs market
- Model
- Auger Aliassime F. -3.5
- First line
- Auger Aliassime F. -3.5
- Latest
- Auger Aliassime F. -3.5
Auger Aliassime F. -3.5 at -114
- Model
- 30.4%
- First line
- 27.9%
- Latest
- 27.5%
Moneyline Carreno-Busta P. +247 / Auger Aliassime F. -317 (vig removed) · opened 27.9%
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sat 12:58 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Sun 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Against the first line
- Final
- Ruud C. 13, Tien L. 10
- Result
- Ruud C. won by 3, could lose by up to 1 (2 pushes)
- Why
- Model Ruud C. -0.5, first line Tien L. -2.0: the underdog
- Final
- Ruud C. 13, Tien L. 10
- Result
- Ruud C. won by 3
- Why
- Model 52%, first price 41%
Model vs market
- Model
- Ruud C. -0.5
- First line
- Tien L. -2.0
- Latest
- Tien L. -2.0
Tien L. -2.0 at -111
- Model
- 47.8%
- First line
- 53.7%
- Latest
- 59.4%
Moneyline Tien L. -165 / Ruud C. +135 (vig removed) · opened 53.7%
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sat 12:58 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Sun 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Against the first line
- Final
- Jodar R. 17, Lehecka J. 16
- Result
- Lehecka J. lost by 1, needed to win by 3+ (2 pushes)
- Why
- Model Lehecka J. -3.5, first line Lehecka J. -2.0: the favorite
- Final
- Jodar R. 17, Lehecka J. 16
- Result
- Lehecka J. lost by 1
- Why
- Model 68%, first price 58%
Model vs market
- Model
- Lehecka J. -3.5
- First line
- Lehecka J. -2.0
- Latest
- Lehecka J. -2.0
Lehecka J. -2.0 at -102
- Model
- 68.0%
- First line
- 53.9%
- Latest
- 57.6%
Moneyline Lehecka J. -153 / Jodar R. +125 (vig removed) · opened 53.9%
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sat 12:58 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Sun 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Against the first line
- Final
- Fritz T. 14, Tsitsipas S. 16
- Result
- Fritz T. lost by 2, needed to win by 3+ (2 pushes)
- Why
- Model Fritz T. -2.5, first line Fritz T. -2.0: the favorite
- Final
- Fritz T. 14, Tsitsipas S. 16
- Result
- Fritz T. lost by 2
- Why
- Model 64%, first price 61%
Model vs market
- Model
- Fritz T. -2.5
- First line
- Fritz T. -2.0
- Latest
- Fritz T. -2.0
Fritz T. -2.0 at -102
- Model
- 35.6%
- First line
- 39.1%
- Latest
- 39.1%
Moneyline Tsitsipas S. +144 / Fritz T. -176 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sat 12:58 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Sun 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Against the first line
- Final
- Svrcina D. 5, Medvedev D. 12
- Result
- Svrcina D. lost by 7
- Why
- Model 20%, first price 16%
Model vs market
- Model
- Medvedev D. -5.5
- First line
- Medvedev D. -5.5
- Latest
- Medvedev D. -5.5
Medvedev D. -5.5 at -105
- Model
- 79.7%
- First line
- 82.1%
- Latest
- 83.7%
Moneyline Medvedev D. -710 / Svrcina D. +486 (vig removed) · opened 82.1%
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sat 12:58 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Sun 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Against the first line
- Final
- Van De Zandschulp B. 13, Fils A. 9
- Result
- Fils A. lost by 4, needed to win by 5+ (4 pushes)
- Why
- Model Fils A. -4.5, first line Fils A. -4.0: the favorite
Model vs market
- Model
- Fils A. -4.5
- First line
- Fils A. -4.0
- Latest
- Fils A. -4.0
Fils A. -4.0 at -118
- Model
- 78.2%
- First line
- 78.6%
- Latest
- 78.6%
Moneyline Fils A. -467 / Van De Zandschulp B. +346 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sat 12:58 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Sun 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Against the first line
- Final
- Alcaraz C. 11, Bergs Z. 14
- Result
- Bergs Z. won by 3
- Why
- Model 14%, first price 9%
Model vs market
- Model
- Alcaraz C. -5.5
- First line
- Alcaraz C. -5.5
- Latest
- Alcaraz C. -5.5
Alcaraz C. -5.5 at -105
- Model
- 14.5%
- First line
- 9.4%
- Latest
- 9.4%
Moneyline Bergs Z. +920 / Alcaraz C. -1860 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sat 12:58 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Sun 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Against the first line
- Final
- Vacherot V. 6, Paul T. 12
- Result
- Paul T. won by 6, needed to win by 3+ (2 pushes)
- Why
- Model Paul T. -2.5, first line Paul T. -2.0: the favorite
- Final
- Vacherot V. 6, Paul T. 12
- Result
- Paul T. won by 6
- Why
- Model 62%, first price 57%
Model vs market
- Model
- Paul T. -2.5
- First line
- Paul T. -2.0
- Latest
- Paul T. -2.0
Paul T. -2.0 at -102
- Model
- 62.0%
- First line
- 56.8%
- Latest
- 57.2%
Moneyline Paul T. -150 / Vacherot V. +123 (vig removed) · opened 56.8%
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sat 12:58 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Sun 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →