ATP
Model record
152–82
favorite straight-up · last 30 days
65.0%
favorite win rate (234 graded)
3.6
games: average miss on the projected margin
4.9
games: average miss on the projected total
Day by day
7–3
Sep 29
6–4
Sep 30
12–7
Oct 1
5–2
Oct 2
7–2
Oct 3
4–4
Oct 4
11–10
Oct 5
9–3
Oct 6
9–4
Oct 7
9–6
Oct 8
8–7
Oct 9
11–3
Oct 10
5–2
Oct 11
4–4
Oct 12
favorite won · favorite lost
Calibration
50%–60%
55.7% n=131
60%–70%
73.0% n=89
70%–80%
72.2% n=79
80%–90%
84.6% n=39
bar = how often the favorite actually won · notch = what the model predicted
Recently graded
| Model favorite | Result | Win % | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, Oct 12 → | |||
| Alcaraz C. | ✗ miss | 85.5% | Alcaraz C. 11, Bergs Z. 14 |
| Fils A. | ✗ miss | 78.2% | Van De Zandschulp B. 13, Fils A. 9 |
| Paul T. | ✓ hit | 62.0% | Vacherot V. 6, Paul T. 12 |
| Lehecka J. | ✗ miss | 68.0% | Jodar R. 17, Lehecka J. 16 |
| Medvedev D. | ✓ hit | 79.7% | Svrcina D. 5, Medvedev D. 12 |
| Fritz T. | ✗ miss | 64.4% | Fritz T. 14, Tsitsipas S. 16 |
| Auger Aliassime F. | ✓ hit | 69.6% | Auger Aliassime F. 16, Carreno-Busta P. 10 |
| Ruud C. | ✓ hit | 52.2% | Ruud C. 13, Tien L. 10 |
| Sun, Oct 11 → | |||
| Zverev A. | ✓ hit | 76.0% | Halys Q. 14, Zverev A. 18 |
| Davidovich Fokina A. | ✓ hit | 54.8% | Tiafoe F. 18, Davidovich Fokina A. 18 |
| Nakashima B. | ✗ miss | 56.4% | Nakashima B. 16, Bublik A. 19 |
| Hurkacz H. | ✓ hit | 84.7% | Zhou Y. 11, Hurkacz H. 15 |
| Shelton B. | ✗ miss | 70.3% | Gea A. 14, Shelton B. 12 |
| De Minaur A. | ✓ hit | 71.1% | Sakamoto R. 10, De Minaur A. 13 |
| Khachanov K. | ✓ hit | 77.1% | Mannarino A. 6, Khachanov K. 12 |
5 earlier slates
| Model favorite | Result | Win % | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Oct 10 → | |||
| Tsitsipas S. | ✓ hit | 60.6% | Tsitsipas S. 12, Darderi L. 7 |
| Paul T. | ✓ hit | 65.4% | Vallejo A. 4, Paul T. 12 |
| Vacherot V. | ✓ hit | 59.6% | Vacherot V. 13, Baez S. 10 |
| Michelsen A. | ✗ miss | 69.0% | Michelsen A. 8, Van De Zandschulp B. 12 |
| Alcaraz C. | ✓ hit | 94.4% | Alcaraz C. 12, Cerundolo J. 6 |
| Bergs Z. | ✓ hit | 54.5% | Bergs Z. 12, Buse I. 3 |
| Fils A. | ✓ hit | 90.6% | Kotov P. 7, Fils A. 12 |
| Fritz T. | ✓ hit | 76.4% | Fritz T. 13, Arnaldi M. 9 |
| Tien L. | ✓ hit | 70.1% | Svajda Z. 10, Tien L. 14 |
| Tabilo A. | ✗ miss | 61.2% | Carreno-Busta P. 17, Tabilo A. 16 |
| Etcheverry T. | ✗ miss | 54.6% | Etcheverry T. 14, Svrcina D. 16 |
| Lehecka J. | ✓ hit | 65.2% | Borges N. 12, Lehecka J. 15 |
| Auger Aliassime F. | ✓ hit | 84.4% | Auger Aliassime F. 18, Ugo Carabelli C. 17 |
| Jodar R. | ✓ hit | 58.8% | Jodar R. 16, Tirante T. 11 |
| Fri, Oct 9 → | |||
| Bublik A. | ✓ hit | 68.3% | Machac T. 10, Bublik A. 13 |
| Musetti L. | ✗ miss | 83.6% | Musetti L. 18, Zhou Y. 17 |
| Khachanov K. | ✓ hit | 70.4% | Fery A. 19, Khachanov K. 20 |
| Mensik J. | ✓ hit | 67.9% | Mensik J. 12, Kecmanovic M. 6 |
| Safiullin R. | ✗ miss | 53.3% | Safiullin R. 9, Cerundolo F. 13 |
| Tiafoe F. | ✓ hit | 64.3% | Tiafoe F. 12, Hanfmann Y. 8 |
| Blockx A. | ✗ miss | 50.9% | Blockx A. 16, Halys Q. 17 |
| Zverev A. | ✓ hit | 80.5% | Wu Y. 10, Zverev A. 13 |
| Davidovich Fokina A. | ✓ hit | 63.5% | Brooksby J. 4, Davidovich Fokina A. 12 |
| Djokovic N. | ✗ miss | 56.6% | Hurkacz H. 12, Djokovic N. 7 |
| Nakashima B. | ✓ hit | 59.3% | Nakashima B. 14, Berrettini M. 11 |
| Humbert U. | ✗ miss | 50.6% | Humbert U. 11, Gea A. 15 |
| Cobolli F. | ✗ miss | 61.1% | Cobolli F. 10, Mannarino A. 16 |
| Rublev A. | ✗ miss | 71.5% | Rublev A. 8, Sakamoto R. 12 |
| Shelton B. | ✓ hit | 88.6% | Altmaier D. 9, Shelton B. 13 |
| Thu, Oct 8 → | |||
| Bergs Z. | ✓ hit | 68.9% | Bergs Z. 12, Kopriva V. 4 |
| Norrie C. | ✗ miss | 62.6% | Svrcina D. 15, Norrie C. 13 |
| Marozsan F. | ✗ miss | 53.8% | Svajda Z. 13, Marozsan F. 9 |
| Navone M. | ✗ miss | 58.2% | Carreno-Busta P. 17, Navone M. 14 |
| Struff J. | ✓ hit | 55.0% | Struff J. 12, Landaluce M. 8 |
| Baez S. | ✓ hit | 55.8% | Baez S. 13, Giron M. 13 |
| Cerundolo J. | ✓ hit | 66.4% | Mejia N. 8, Cerundolo J. 12 |
| Hurkacz H. | ✓ hit | 74.1% | Duckworth J. 9, Hurkacz H. 13 |
| Munar J. | ✗ miss | 65.0% | Brooksby J. 13, Munar J. 9 |
| Borges N. | ✓ hit | 66.5% | Diaz Acosta F. 8, Borges N. 13 |
| Tirante T. | ✓ hit | 56.9% | Medjedovic H. 6, Tirante T. 12 |
| Royer V. | ✗ miss | 55.5% | Royer V. 4, Vallejo A. 12 |
| Griekspoor T. | ✗ miss | 69.5% | Griekspoor T. 10, Kotov P. 13 |
| Tsitsipas S. | ✓ hit | 82.4% | Tsitsipas S. 13, Coppejans K. 8 |
| Arnaldi M. | ✓ hit | 66.5% | Arnaldi M. 12, Tomic B. 4 |
| Wed, Oct 7 → | |||
| Basilashvili N. | ✗ miss | 57.2% | Basilashvili N. 5, Mannarino A. 8 |
| Fery A. | ✓ hit | 51.0% | Cilic M. 7, Fery A. 13 |
| Rune H. | ✗ miss | 75.8% | Altmaier D. 14, Rune H. 16 |
| Bellucci M. | ✗ miss | 72.7% | Zhou Y. 16, Bellucci M. 16 |
| Machac T. | ✓ hit | 61.8% | Machac T. 14, Zhang Z. 14 |
| Majchrzak K. | ✗ miss | 51.1% | Majchrzak K. 19, Hanfmann Y. 20 |
| Wu Y. | ✓ hit | 59.3% | Zheng M. 9, Wu Y. 13 |
| Molcan A. | ✓ hit | 60.8% | Cina F. 9, Molcan A. 16 |
| Sakamoto R. | ✓ hit | 62.8% | Sakamoto R. 13, Trungelliti M. 8 |
| Safiullin R. | ✓ hit | 73.3% | Safiullin R. 13, Hijikata R. 8 |
| Berrettini M. | ✓ hit | 67.5% | Berrettini M. 18, Kovacevic A. 12 |
| Gea A. | ✓ hit | 64.5% | Faria J. 10, Gea A. 18 |
| Kecmanovic M. | ✓ hit | 69.4% | Kecmanovic M. 12, Shimabukuro S. 6 |
| Tue, Oct 6 → | |||
| Svrcina D. | ✓ hit | 56.8% | Svrcina D. 5, Nishioka Y. 2 |
| Djokovic N. | ✓ hit | 54.0% | De Minaur A. 7, Djokovic N. 7 |
| Alcaraz C. | ✓ hit | 66.9% | Lehecka J. 10, Alcaraz C. 13 |
| Jacquet K. | ✗ miss | 56.1% | Sakamoto R. 18, Jacquet K. 18 |
| Kotov P. | ✓ hit | 54.4% | Vukic A. 6, Kotov P. 12 |
| Sweeny D. | ✗ miss | 55.3% | Coppejans K. 12, Sweeny D. 5 |
| Bellucci M. | ✓ hit | 70.5% | Muller A. 6, Bellucci M. 12 |
| Safiullin R. | ✓ hit | 84.1% | Mochizuki S. 5, Safiullin R. 12 |