ATP Tennis predictions Sat, Nov 7
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every ATP match. Methodology →
6 tour-level matches on this slate · 120–84 since Oct 20 (model V4) →
7 Challenger matches · Challenger: 132–92 since Oct 27 (model V4) →
Games
Paris
#15
Shelton
#77
Van Assche
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Shelton
Stockholm
#112
Passaro
#62
Basilashvili
Biggest factor: Return edge · Basilashvili
#141
Gojo
#206
Brunold
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Gojo
#92
Sonego
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Sonego
#79
Samuel
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Samuel
#387
Durasovic
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Shevchenko
ATP Challenger 7 matches
Bratislava Challenger
#151
Dodig
#97
Kym
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Kym
#160
Rodionov
#94
Svrcina
Biggest factor: Return edge · Svrcina
Charlottesville Challenger
#101
Chidekh
#113
Giron
Biggest factor: Return edge · Chidekh
#190
Mayo
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Mayo
Costa do Sauipe Challenger
#152
Ugo Carabelli
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Ugo Carabelli
Taipei Challenger
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Kumstat
Villa Maria Challenger
#318
Coria
Biggest factor: Return edge · Olivieri
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 61.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 61.4%
Decimal odds 2.42 / 1.52, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Chidekh | Giron | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 62.0157th of 472 | 63.8101st of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 37.528th of 472 | 34.3158th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.7886th of 472 | 49.03106th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.35101st of 570 | 49.04113th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 8 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 64 | 43 |
| Matches rated | 179 | 564 |
Serve and return
| Chidekh | Giron | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.6% | 60.7% |
| Return pts won | 39.3% | 36.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 80.5% | 74.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setChidekh 60%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setChidekh 64%set by set, before calibration; published 62% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeGiron 33.3, Chidekh 25.4small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 55.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 59.2%
Decimal odds 2.28 / 1.57, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Kumstat | Shimizu | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 62.6134th of 472 | 59.4 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 31.0353rd of 472 | 33.1 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.83222nd of 472 | 46.21 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.78169th of 570 | 46.00 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 32 | – |
| Matches rated | 50 | 256 |
Serve and return
| Kumstat | Shimizu | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 65.1% | 63.8% |
| Return pts won | 36.2% | 34.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 83.1% | 80.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setKumstat 54%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setKumstat 57%set by set, before calibration; published 55% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 57.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 64.4%
Decimal odds 1.45 / 2.62, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Passaro | Basilashvili | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 64.190th of 472 | 65.458th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.8182nd of 472 | 35.872nd of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.94115th of 472 | 50.6151st of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.20112th of 570 | 50.2362nd of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 10 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 42 | 48 |
| Matches rated | 303 | 649 |
Serve and return
| Passaro | Basilashvili | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 64.0% | 65.7% |
| Return pts won | 34.3% | 36.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 81.2% | 84.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawQualifying
- Chance to win a setBasilashvili 56%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBasilashvili 59%set by set, before calibration; published 57% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeBasilashvili 34.7, Passaro 25.8small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelBasilashvili 9, Passaro 19counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 55.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 59.9%
Decimal odds 2.33 / 1.56, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Gojo | Brunold | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 64.776th of 472 | 59.6268th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.6256th of 472 | 35.1111th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.67127th of 472 | 47.36188th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.47141st of 570 | 47.15206th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 42 | 39 |
| Matches rated | 385 | 134 |
Serve and return
| Gojo | Brunold | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 64.8% | 63.4% |
| Return pts won | 36.6% | 35.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 82.7% | 80.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawQualifying
- Chance to win a setGojo 55%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setGojo 57%set by set, before calibration; published 56% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeBrunold 22.1, Gojo 28.7small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 80.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 86.8%
Decimal odds 7.11 / 1.08, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Sonego | Wallin | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 65.360th of 472 | 58.8 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.3159th of 472 | 31.5 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.8184th of 472 | 45.12 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.5492nd of 570 | 45.81297th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 32 | 18 |
| Matches rated | 592 | 60 |
Serve and return
| Sonego | Wallin | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 68.6% | 60.0% |
| Return pts won | 40.0% | 31.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 88.3% | 73.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawQualifying
- Chance to win a setSonego 76%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSonego 86%set by set, before calibration; published 81% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelWallin 33, Sonego 5counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 66.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 62.2%
Decimal odds 1.50 / 2.47, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Dodig | Kym | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 62.6132nd of 472 | 65.455th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.7247th of 472 | 34.7129th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.66170th of 472 | 50.0870th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.25151st of 570 | 49.4697th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Matches, 12 months | 59 | 40 |
| Matches rated | 164 | 168 |
Serve and return
| Dodig | Kym | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 64.5% | 68.9% |
| Return pts won | 31.1% | 35.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 82.1% | 88.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setKym 64%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setKym 70%set by set, before calibration; published 67% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeKym 23.7, Dodig 21.3small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchDodig from claygames projection only, not the win chance
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 93.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 84.2%
Decimal odds 5.95 / 1.12, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Samuel | Friberg | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 63.4113th of 472 | 54.4 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 37.137th of 472 | 32.8 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.2762nd of 472 | 43.60 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.8579th of 570 | 43.58 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 61 | – |
| Matches rated | 94 | 54 |
Serve and return
| Samuel | Friberg | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 66.7% | 52.7% |
| Return pts won | 47.3% | 33.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 85.6% | 56.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawQualifying
- Chance to win a setSamuel 89%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSamuel 96%set by set, before calibration; published 93% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeFriberg 27.6, Samuel 24.2small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelFriberg 1034, Samuel 5counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 73.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 76.8%
Decimal odds 4.04 / 1.22, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Shevchenko | Durasovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 62.1155th of 472 | 58.4324th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.4208th of 472 | 31.5320th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.74164th of 472 | 44.98327th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.71174th of 570 | 44.48387th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 52 | 26 |
| Matches rated | 338 | 342 |
Serve and return
| Shevchenko | Durasovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 66.3% | 60.1% |
| Return pts won | 39.9% | 33.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 85.0% | 73.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawQualifying
- Chance to win a setShevchenko 70%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setShevchenko 78%set by set, before calibration; published 74% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeDurasovic 29.6, Shevchenko 25.9small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelDurasovic 26, Shevchenko 5counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -3.5
- First line
- -3.5
- Latest
- -3.5
Shelton -3.5 at +105
- Model
- 74.8%
- First line
- 74.6%
- Latest
- 74.6%
Moneyline Van Assche L. +275 / Shelton B. -358 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · 7:33 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 7:33 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Shelton | Van Assche | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 71.85th of 472 | 62.3144th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 35.3101st of 472 | 37.727th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 53.5711th of 472 | 50.0374th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 53.2515th of 570 | 49.8877th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 63 | 72 |
| Matches rated | 294 | 343 |
Serve and return
| Shelton | Van Assche | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 70.1% | 63.4% |
| Return pts won | 36.6% | 29.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 90.3% | 80.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setShelton 71%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setShelton 79%set by set, before calibration; published 75% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeVan Assche 22.5, Shelton 24.1small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 64.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 58.4%
Decimal odds 1.59 / 2.23, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Rodionov | Svrcina | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.5188th of 472 | 58.8299th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.8125th of 472 | 40.56th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.16152nd of 472 | 49.6391st of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.04160th of 570 | 49.5094th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 50 | 49 |
| Matches rated | 528 | 312 |
Serve and return
| Rodionov | Svrcina | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 56.5% | 60.0% |
| Return pts won | 40.0% | 43.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 65.8% | 73.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setSvrcina 62%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSvrcina 68%set by set, before calibration; published 65% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeSvrcina 24.1, Rodionov 27.5small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 73.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 71.7%
Decimal odds 3.29 / 1.30, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Ugo Carabelli | Bueno | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 61.7125th of 402 | 56.0335th of 402 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 36.677th of 402 | 35.5125th of 402 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 49.1592nd of 402 | 45.73260th of 402 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.21152nd of 570 | 45.19332nd of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 48 | 56 |
| Matches rated | 415 | 220 |
Serve and return
| Ugo Carabelli | Bueno | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 62.4% | 56.4% |
| Return pts won | 43.6% | 37.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 78.3% | 65.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setUgo Carabelli 70%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setUgo Carabelli 78%set by set, before calibration; published 74% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeBueno 22.6, Ugo Carabelli 27.4small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchUgo Carabelli from hardgames projection only, not the win chance
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 51.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 51.2%
Decimal odds 1.90 / 1.81, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Olivieri | Coria | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 55.9 | 56.9298th of 402 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 35.5 | 35.2139th of 402 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 45.69 | 46.06240th of 402 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.26 | 45.46318th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | – | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | – | 14 |
| Matches rated | 336 | 581 |
Serve and return
| Olivieri | Coria | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 56.7% | 56.3% |
| Return pts won | 43.7% | 43.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 66.3% | 65.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setOlivieri 51%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setOlivieri 52%set by set, before calibration; published 52% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeCoria 34.7, Olivieri 28.3small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 58.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 62.7%
Decimal odds 1.38 / 2.32, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Andrade | Mayo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 57.9343rd of 472 | 62.2152nd of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 35.873rd of 472 | 33.1229th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.88218th of 472 | 47.66169th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.60245th of 570 | 47.30190th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Matches, 12 months | 63 | 40 |
| Matches rated | 148 | 205 |
Serve and return
| Andrade | Mayo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 60.4% | 62.6% |
| Return pts won | 37.4% | 39.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 74.4% | 78.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMayo 57%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMayo 61%set by set, before calibration; published 59% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →