ATP Tennis predictions Fri, Nov 6
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every ATP match. Methodology →
4 tour-level matches on this slate · 117–83 since Oct 20 (model V4) →
14 Challenger matches · Challenger: 122–85 since Oct 27 (model V4) →
Games
Paris
#16
Shelton
Biggest factor: Return edge · Paul
#105
Hijikata
#79
Van Assche
Biggest factor: Return edge · Van Assche
#2
Alcaraz
#4
Fritz
Biggest factor: Return edge · Alcaraz
#10
Ruud
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Ruud
ATP Challenger 14 matches
Bratislava Challenger
#99
Djere
#154
Dodig
Biggest factor: Return edge · Djere
#96
Kym
#88
Basavareddy
#175
Piros
#100
Svrcina
Biggest factor: Return edge · Svrcina
#159
Rodionov
#216
Coppejans
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Rodionov
Charlottesville Challenger
Biggest factor: Return edge · Andrade
#203
Mayo
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Mayo
Biggest factor: Return edge · Kozlov
Costa do Sauipe Challenger
#230
Midon
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Midon
Taipei Challenger
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Shimizu
#171
Mayot
Biggest factor: Return edge · Mayot
#170
Muller
#165
Watanuki
Biggest factor: Return edge · Watanuki
Villa Maria Challenger
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Roca Batalla
Biggest factor: Return edge · Torres
#318
Coria
#335
Ficovich
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Ficovich
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 53.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 50.3%
Decimal odds 1.85 / 1.87, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Trotter | Andrade | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.8168th of 472 | 57.6357th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 30.8363rd of 472 | 35.775th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.31254th of 472 | 46.67231st of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.06281st of 570 | 46.40262nd of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 26 | 62 |
| Matches rated | 203 | 147 |
Serve and return
| Trotter | Andrade | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.6% | 62.4% |
| Return pts won | 37.6% | 38.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 76.8% | 78.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setAndrade 53%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setAndrade 54%set by set, before calibration; published 53% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 59.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 62.0%
Decimal odds 1.51 / 2.46, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Jasika | Shimizu | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 57.7350th of 472 | 59.4 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.7245th of 472 | 32.9 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 45.19310th of 472 | 46.11 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.88356th of 570 | 45.91 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 30 | – |
| Matches rated | 276 | 255 |
Serve and return
| Jasika | Shimizu | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 59.9% | 62.1% |
| Return pts won | 37.9% | 40.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 73.4% | 77.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setShimizu 57%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setShimizu 61%set by set, before calibration; published 59% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeShimizu 27.4, Jasika 29.5small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 63.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 59.1%
Decimal odds 2.28 / 1.58, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Mayot | Kumstat | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.5182nd of 472 | 62.2150th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.9125th of 472 | 31.2341st of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.21150th of 472 | 46.71228th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.74171st of 570 | 47.78169th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 41 | 31 |
| Matches rated | 316 | 49 |
Serve and return
| Mayot | Kumstat | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 66.2% | 62.9% |
| Return pts won | 37.1% | 33.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 85.0% | 79.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMayot 61%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMayot 66%set by set, before calibration; published 63% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 52.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 63.5%
Decimal odds 1.47 / 2.56, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Muller | Watanuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.8171st of 472 | 61.2193rd of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.4151st of 472 | 35.2107th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.08155th of 472 | 48.23149th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.76170th of 570 | 47.89165th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 38 | 27 |
| Matches rated | 511 | 373 |
Serve and return
| Muller | Watanuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.6% | 62.1% |
| Return pts won | 37.9% | 38.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 76.8% | 77.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setWatanuki 52%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setWatanuki 53%set by set, before calibration; published 52% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeWatanuki 28.6, Muller 29.8small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 56.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 46.8%
Decimal odds 1.74 / 1.98, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Djere | Dodig | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 62.7131st of 472 | 62.4141st of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 35.778th of 472 | 32.5263rd of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.17102nd of 472 | 47.46182nd of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.4099th of 570 | 48.13154th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Matches, 12 months | 47 | 58 |
| Matches rated | 577 | 163 |
Serve and return
| Djere | Dodig | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 64.9% | 63.3% |
| Return pts won | 36.7% | 35.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 82.8% | 80.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setDjere 55%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setDjere 58%set by set, before calibration; published 56% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeDodig 21.3, Djere 31.4small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 53.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 54.8%
Decimal odds 2.10 / 1.73, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Paul | Shelton | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 68.422nd of 472 | 71.65th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 40.37th of 472 | 35.499th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 54.366th of 472 | 53.4613th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 54.316th of 570 | 53.1416th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 68 | 62 |
| Matches rated | 591 | 293 |
Serve and return
| Paul | Shelton | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 68.2% | 67.3% |
| Return pts won | 32.7% | 31.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 87.8% | 86.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setPaul 53%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setPaul 54%set by set, before calibration; published 53% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeShelton 24.1, Paul 29.5small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 50.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 51.9%
Decimal odds 1.93 / 1.79, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Kym | Basavareddy | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 65.362nd of 472 | 63.3115th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.9124th of 472 | 36.367th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.0970th of 472 | 49.8182nd of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.4696th of 570 | 49.5988th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 39 | 43 |
| Matches rated | 167 | 169 |
Serve and return
| Kym | Basavareddy | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 65.1% | 64.9% |
| Return pts won | 35.1% | 34.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 83.1% | 82.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setKym 51%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setKym 51%set by set, before calibration; published 51% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeBasavareddy 21.5, Kym 23.7small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 65.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 62.7%
Decimal odds 1.49 / 2.50, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Kicker | Roca Batalla | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 57.4 | 61.0 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 34.8 | 34.9 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 46.10 | 47.91 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.55 | 47.48 |
| Matches rated | 436 | 371 |
Serve and return
| Kicker | Roca Batalla | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 57.4% | 61.2% |
| Return pts won | 38.8% | 42.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 68.0% | 76.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setRoca Batalla 63%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setRoca Batalla 69%set by set, before calibration; published 65% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeRoca Batalla 33.5, Kicker 34.2small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 57.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 60.3%
Decimal odds 1.57 / 2.38, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Hijikata | Van Assche | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 62.3147th of 472 | 62.2151st of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 36.365th of 472 | 37.728th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.3198th of 472 | 49.9575th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.32105th of 570 | 49.8079th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 72 | 71 |
| Matches rated | 348 | 342 |
Serve and return
| Hijikata | Van Assche | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 60.3% | 62.2% |
| Return pts won | 37.8% | 39.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 74.2% | 77.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setVan Assche 56%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setVan Assche 59%set by set, before calibration; published 58% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeVan Assche 22.5, Hijikata 25.7small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 66.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 64.2%
Decimal odds 2.60 / 1.45, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Midon | Bueno | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 58.0256th of 402 | 55.7341st of 402 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 36.963rd of 402 | 35.3136th of 402 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 47.46168th of 402 | 45.48271st of 402 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.86230th of 570 | 44.95354th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 62 | 55 |
| Matches rated | 158 | 219 |
Serve and return
| Midon | Bueno | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 59.7% | 55.8% |
| Return pts won | 44.2% | 40.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 73.0% | 64.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMidon 64%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMidon 70%set by set, before calibration; published 66% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeBueno 22.6, Midon 22.6small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 69.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 58.9%
Decimal odds 1.56 / 2.24, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Piros | Svrcina | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 60.3234th of 472 | 58.6309th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.4150th of 472 | 40.46th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.38188th of 472 | 49.5093rd of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.71175th of 570 | 49.37100th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 60 | 48 |
| Matches rated | 385 | 311 |
Serve and return
| Piros | Svrcina | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 55.5% | 60.3% |
| Return pts won | 39.7% | 44.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 63.5% | 74.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setSvrcina 66%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSvrcina 73%set by set, before calibration; published 69% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeSvrcina 24.1, Piros 27.1small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 52.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 58.5%
Decimal odds 2.21 / 1.57, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Mayo | Rehberg | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 62.0158th of 472 | 61.4 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.0232nd of 472 | 32.8 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.53176th of 472 | 47.15 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.17203rd of 570 | 47.14 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 39 | – |
| Matches rated | 204 | 179 |
Serve and return
| Mayo | Rehberg | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 65.3% | 64.6% |
| Return pts won | 35.4% | 34.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 83.5% | 82.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMayo 52%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMayo 53%set by set, before calibration; published 53% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeRehberg 23.1, Mayo 23.5small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchRehberg from claygames projection only, not the win chance
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 55.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 49.3%
Decimal odds 1.86 / 1.81, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Olivieri | Torres | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 55.8 | 55.3351st of 402 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 35.2 | 36.964th of 402 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 45.52 | 46.09238th of 402 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.10 | 45.65308th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | – | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | – | 54 |
| Matches rated | 335 | 269 |
Serve and return
| Olivieri | Torres | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 54.9% | 56.3% |
| Return pts won | 43.7% | 45.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 62.1% | 65.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setTorres 55%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setTorres 57%set by set, before calibration; published 56% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 61.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 61.0%
Decimal odds 1.53 / 2.39, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Shick | Kozlov | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 58.4328th of 472 | 57.3 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 31.7309th of 472 | 35.9 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 45.05323rd of 472 | 46.61 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.78367th of 570 | 46.52 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 33 | – |
| Matches rated | 41 | 461 |
Serve and return
| Shick | Kozlov | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 58.0% | 60.8% |
| Return pts won | 39.2% | 42.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 69.2% | 75.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setKozlov 60%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setKozlov 64%set by set, before calibration; published 62% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 63.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 64.8%
Decimal odds 2.60 / 1.41, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Rodionov | Coppejans | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.5187th of 472 | 59.0290th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.8127th of 472 | 35.0120th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.16152nd of 472 | 47.02207th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.04159th of 570 | 47.06216th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 50 | 54 |
| Matches rated | 528 | 673 |
Serve and return
| Rodionov | Coppejans | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.9% | 58.7% |
| Return pts won | 41.3% | 38.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 77.5% | 70.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setRodionov 61%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setRodionov 66%set by set, before calibration; published 63% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeCoppejans 32.7, Rodionov 27.5small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 73.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 71.4%
Decimal odds 3.32 / 1.33, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Alcaraz | Fritz | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 70.47th of 472 | 72.43rd of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 43.91st of 472 | 36.757th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 57.192nd of 472 | 54.545th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 57.112nd of 570 | 54.464th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Matches, 12 months | 47 | 61 |
| Matches rated | 416 | 683 |
Serve and return
| Alcaraz | Fritz | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 69.9% | 63.6% |
| Return pts won | 36.4% | 30.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 89.9% | 80.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setAlcaraz 69%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setAlcaraz 78%set by set, before calibration; published 73% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeFritz 29.0, Alcaraz 23.5small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 61.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 62.6%
Decimal odds 1.51 / 2.53, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Borges | Ruud | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 67.036th of 472 | 69.017th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 37.138th of 472 | 37.826th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 52.0729th of 472 | 53.4015th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 52.1727th of 570 | 53.8410th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 59 | 46 |
| Matches rated | 367 | 574 |
Serve and return
| Borges | Ruud | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 64.3% | 67.3% |
| Return pts won | 32.7% | 35.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 81.8% | 86.5% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setRuud 60%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setRuud 64%set by set, before calibration; published 62% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeRuud 27.9, Borges 29.7small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 51.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 54.6%
Decimal odds 1.67 / 2.01, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Coria | Ficovich | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 56.9298th of 402 | 58.2247th of 402 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 35.2141st of 402 | 33.5230th of 402 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 46.06241st of 402 | 45.85251st of 402 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.47318th of 570 | 45.14335th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 14 | 39 |
| Matches rated | 581 | 439 |
Serve and return
| Coria | Ficovich | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 58.2% | 58.7% |
| Return pts won | 41.3% | 41.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 69.8% | 70.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setFicovich 52%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setFicovich 52%set by set, before calibration; published 52% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeFicovich 29.8, Coria 34.7small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchFicovich from hardgames projection only, not the win chance
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →