ATP Tennis predictions Thu, Nov 5
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every ATP match. Methodology →
8 tour-level matches on this slate · 113–80 since Oct 20 (model V4) →
15 Challenger matches · Challenger: 110–80 since Oct 27 (model V4) →
Games
Paris
#38
Halys
Biggest factor: Return edge · Paul
#34
Rinderknech
#16
Shelton
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Shelton
#79
Van Assche
#17
Musetti
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Musetti
#53
Etcheverry
#112
Hijikata
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Etcheverry
#62
Buse
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Borges
#11
Ruud
#48
Struff
Biggest factor: Return edge · Ruud
#2
Alcaraz
#30
Berrettini
Biggest factor: Return edge · Alcaraz
#5
Fritz
#6
Fils
Biggest factor: Return edge · Fils
ATP Challenger 15 matches
Bratislava Challenger
#122
Virtanen
#98
Djere
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Virtanen
#160
Dodig
#217
Gentzsch
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Dodig
#72
Samuel
#164
Rodionov
Biggest factor: Return edge · Samuel
Charlottesville Challenger
#231
Mayo
Biggest factor: Return edge · Mayo
Biggest factor: Return edge · Rehberg
Costa do Sauipe Challenger
#261
Misolic
#74
Diaz Acosta
Biggest factor: Return edge · Diaz Acosta
#185
Cecchinato
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Monteiro
#320
Roncadelli
#85
Seyboth Wild
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Seyboth Wild
Taipei Challenger
#168
Muller
Broom
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Muller
#175
Watanuki
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Watanuki
#180
Shimabukuro
#174
Mayot
Biggest factor: Return edge · Mayot
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Overbeck
Villa Maria Challenger
Biggest factor: Return edge · Torres
#356
Ficovich
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Ficovich
Biggest factor: Return edge · Olivieri
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 57.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 55.6%
Decimal odds 2.10 / 1.68, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Muller | Broom | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.7173rd of 472 | 60.1 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.4152nd of 472 | 33.9 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.06154th of 472 | 47.04 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.73168th of 570 | 46.92 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 37 | – |
| Matches rated | 510 | 168 |
Serve and return
| Muller | Broom | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.8% | 61.0% |
| Return pts won | 39.0% | 37.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 79.2% | 75.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMuller 56%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMuller 59%set by set, before calibration; published 57% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeBroom 28.5, Muller 29.8small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchBroom from grassgames projection only, not the win chance
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 79.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 81.2%
Decimal odds 1.15 / 4.98, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Imamura | Watanuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 56.6396th of 472 | 61.1196th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 31.5324th of 472 | 34.9123rd of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 44.02378th of 472 | 48.01156th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 43.68439th of 570 | 47.67175th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 42 | 26 |
| Matches rated | 108 | 372 |
Serve and return
| Imamura | Watanuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 57.2% | 64.9% |
| Return pts won | 35.1% | 42.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 67.5% | 82.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setWatanuki 74%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setWatanuki 84%set by set, before calibration; published 79% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 59.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 53.5%
Decimal odds 1.74 / 2.00, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Shimabukuro | Mayot | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.5182nd of 472 | 61.5186th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.2221st of 472 | 34.9126th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.38187th of 472 | 48.17151st of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.51180th of 570 | 47.68174th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 8 |
| Matches, 12 months | 57 | 40 |
| Matches rated | 286 | 315 |
Serve and return
| Shimabukuro | Mayot | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.8% | 64.2% |
| Return pts won | 35.8% | 38.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 77.3% | 81.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMayot 58%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMayot 62%set by set, before calibration; published 60% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeMayot 24.8, Shimabukuro 29.3small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchMayot from claygames projection only, not the win chance
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 53.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 54.0%
Decimal odds 1.72 / 2.02, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Samrej | Overbeck | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 59.0288th of 472 | 60.6222nd of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 30.4376th of 472 | 29.9398th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 44.72341st of 472 | 45.23306th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.53381st of 570 | 44.81362nd of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 29 | 30 |
| Matches rated | 102 | 35 |
Serve and return
| Samrej | Overbeck | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 64.9% | 65.8% |
| Return pts won | 34.2% | 35.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 82.9% | 84.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setOverbeck 53%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setOverbeck 54%set by set, before calibration; published 53% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- -3.5
- Latest
- -3.5
Paul -3.5 at +104
- Model
- 70.7%
- First line
- 72.3%
- Latest
- 72.3%
Moneyline Paul T. -312 / Halys Q. +244 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · 7:34 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 7:34 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Halys | Paul | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 68.820th of 472 | 68.124th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.2164th of 472 | 40.36th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 51.5037th of 472 | 54.207th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 51.4338th of 570 | 54.168th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 65 | 67 |
| Matches rated | 668 | 590 |
Serve and return
| Halys | Paul | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.5% | 69.0% |
| Return pts won | 31.0% | 36.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 80.4% | 88.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setPaul 67%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setPaul 75%set by set, before calibration; published 71% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgePaul 29.5, Halys 30.0small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- -3.0
- Latest
- -3.0
Shelton -3.0 at +109
- Model
- 69.2%
- First line
- 73.9%
- Latest
- 73.9%
Moneyline Shelton B. -343 / Rinderknech A. +265 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · 7:34 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 7:34 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Rinderknech | Shelton | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 68.819th of 472 | 71.45th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.0174th of 472 | 35.595th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 51.4138th of 472 | 53.4414th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 51.5734th of 570 | 53.1116th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 35 | 61 |
| Matches rated | 424 | 292 |
Serve and return
| Rinderknech | Shelton | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 68.1% | 73.5% |
| Return pts won | 26.5% | 31.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 87.7% | 93.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setShelton 66%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setShelton 73%set by set, before calibration; published 69% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeShelton 24.1, Rinderknech 31.3small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 51.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 60.9%
Decimal odds 2.38 / 1.53, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Virtanen | Djere | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 64.380th of 472 | 62.8130th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.4204th of 472 | 35.780th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.89116th of 472 | 49.22100th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.87122nd of 570 | 49.4498th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 49 | 46 |
| Matches rated | 304 | 576 |
Serve and return
| Virtanen | Djere | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 64.5% | 64.1% |
| Return pts won | 35.9% | 35.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 82.2% | 81.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setVirtanen 51%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setVirtanen 52%set by set, before calibration; published 52% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeDjere 31.4, Virtanen 25.4small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchDjere from claygames projection only, not the win chance
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 57.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 61.7%
Decimal odds 2.43 / 1.51, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Dodig | Gentzsch | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 62.1152nd of 472 | 61.1198th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.5268th of 472 | 32.0289th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.28193rd of 472 | 46.56238th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.02160th of 570 | 47.05217th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 57 | 60 |
| Matches rated | 162 | 123 |
Serve and return
| Dodig | Gentzsch | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 66.7% | 64.9% |
| Return pts won | 35.1% | 33.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 85.6% | 82.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setDodig 56%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setDodig 59%set by set, before calibration; published 57% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeGentzsch 23.2, Dodig 21.3small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -3.5
- First line
- -3.5
- Latest
- -3.5
Musetti -3.5 at -112
- Model
- 72.5%
- First line
- 73.2%
- Latest
- 73.2%
Moneyline Musetti L. -329 / Van Assche L. +256 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · 7:34 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 7:34 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Van Assche | Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 62.0158th of 472 | 67.828th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 37.728th of 472 | 38.120th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.8579th of 472 | 52.9717th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.7179th of 570 | 52.9117th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 8 |
| Matches, 12 months | 70 | 41 |
| Matches rated | 341 | 419 |
Serve and return
| Van Assche | Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 60.2% | 66.1% |
| Return pts won | 33.9% | 39.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 74.0% | 84.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setMusetti 69%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMusetti 77%set by set, before calibration; published 72% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeMusetti 24.7, Van Assche 22.5small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- -0.5
- Latest
- -0.5
Etcheverry -0.5 at -120
- Model
- 61.9%
- First line
- 53.3%
- Latest
- 53.3%
Moneyline Hijikata R. +104 / Etcheverry T. -127 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / BetRivers · 7:34 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / BetRivers · as of 7:34 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Etcheverry | Hijikata | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 67.234th of 472 | 62.0161st of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.5146th of 472 | 36.465th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.8347th of 472 | 49.17102nd of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 50.6453rd of 570 | 49.19112th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 54 | 71 |
| Matches rated | 445 | 347 |
Serve and return
| Etcheverry | Hijikata | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 66.3% | 63.3% |
| Return pts won | 36.7% | 33.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 85.0% | 79.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setEtcheverry 60%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setEtcheverry 65%set by set, before calibration; published 62% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeHijikata 25.7, Etcheverry 27.3small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 71.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 54.9%
Decimal odds 2.06 / 1.69, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Samuel | Rodionov | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 63.4108th of 472 | 61.1194th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 37.530th of 472 | 34.8130th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.4656th of 472 | 47.96159th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 50.0272nd of 570 | 47.88164th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 60 | 49 |
| Matches rated | 93 | 527 |
Serve and return
| Samuel | Rodionov | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 64.7% | 59.1% |
| Return pts won | 40.9% | 35.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 82.5% | 71.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setSamuel 68%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSamuel 76%set by set, before calibration; published 72% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeRodionov 27.5, Samuel 24.2small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -1.5
- First line
- -1.5
- Latest
- -1.5
Borges -1.5 at -127
- Model
- 59.1%
- First line
- 55.7%
- Latest
- 55.7%
Moneyline Borges N. -141 / Buse I. +115 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / BetRivers · 7:34 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / BetRivers · as of 7:34 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Buse | Borges | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 62.2148th of 472 | 66.837th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 37.827th of 472 | 36.756th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.9875th of 472 | 51.7533rd of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 50.2862nd of 570 | 51.8729th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 60 | 58 |
| Matches rated | 199 | 366 |
Serve and return
| Buse | Borges | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.8% | 64.1% |
| Return pts won | 35.9% | 38.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 77.2% | 81.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setBorges 58%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBorges 61%set by set, before calibration; published 59% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeBorges 29.7, Buse 22.6small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 56.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 58.7%
Decimal odds 1.57 / 2.23, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Nijboer | Torres | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 57.4274th of 402 | 55.2354th of 402 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 33.0253rd of 402 | 36.868th of 402 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 45.23282nd of 402 | 45.98243rd of 402 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.73371st of 570 | 45.54315th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 19 | 53 |
| Matches rated | 124 | 268 |
Serve and return
| Nijboer | Torres | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 56.9% | 58.4% |
| Return pts won | 41.6% | 43.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 66.8% | 70.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setTorres 55%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setTorres 58%set by set, before calibration; published 56% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 63.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 62.2%
Decimal odds 1.50 / 2.47, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Gray | Mayo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 60.4 | 61.6177th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 31.4 | 32.8247th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 45.91 | 47.21198th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.99 | 46.85231st of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | – | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | – | 38 |
| Matches rated | 99 | 203 |
Serve and return
| Gray | Mayo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.9% | 66.4% |
| Return pts won | 33.6% | 37.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 79.3% | 85.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMayo 61%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMayo 67%set by set, before calibration; published 64% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeMayo 23.5, Gray 28.4small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchGray from grassgames projection only, not the win chance
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 73.0%
- First line
- 64.8%
- Latest
- 64.8%
Moneyline Struff J. +171 / Ruud C. -212 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings · 7:34 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings · as of 7:34 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Ruud | Struff | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 68.818th of 472 | 67.233rd of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 37.629th of 472 | 34.6138th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 53.2315th of 472 | 50.9145th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 53.7111th of 570 | 50.7248th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 8 |
| Matches, 12 months | 45 | 58 |
| Matches rated | 573 | 850 |
Serve and return
| Ruud | Struff | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 69.6% | 63.4% |
| Return pts won | 36.6% | 30.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 89.6% | 80.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setRuud 69%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setRuud 77%set by set, before calibration; published 73% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeStruff 36.5, Ruud 27.9small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 58.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 60.0%
Decimal odds 1.52 / 2.28, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Dellien | Ficovich | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 54.0 | 58.1249th of 402 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 34.8 | 33.0251st of 402 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 44.37 | 45.59263rd of 402 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 43.84 | 44.91356th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | – | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | – | 38 |
| Matches rated | 231 | 438 |
Serve and return
| Dellien | Ficovich | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 57.2% | 59.1% |
| Return pts won | 40.9% | 42.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 67.4% | 71.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setFicovich 57%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setFicovich 60%set by set, before calibration; published 58% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 75.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 81.2%
Decimal odds 4.92 / 1.14, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Olivieri | Monzon | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 55.8 | 52.6390th of 402 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 35.1 | 31.6321st of 402 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 45.42 | 42.14378th of 402 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.00 | 41.63526th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | – | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | – | 11 |
| Matches rated | 334 | 95 |
Serve and return
| Olivieri | Monzon | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 60.1% | 53.8% |
| Return pts won | 46.2% | 39.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 73.9% | 59.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setOlivieri 71%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setOlivieri 80%set by set, before calibration; published 75% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 58.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 48.0%
Decimal odds 1.77 / 1.92, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Rehberg | Milavsky | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.2 | 60.7219th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.8 | 32.0290th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.03 | 46.34252nd of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.05 | 46.19273rd of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | – | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | – | 37 |
| Matches rated | 178 | 66 |
Serve and return
| Rehberg | Milavsky | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 65.5% | 63.4% |
| Return pts won | 36.6% | 34.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 83.7% | 80.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setRehberg 57%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setRehberg 60%set by set, before calibration; published 58% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 76.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 62.1%
Decimal odds 1.48 / 2.43, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Misolic | Diaz Acosta | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 59.5211th of 402 | 62.896th of 402 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 34.8156th of 402 | 38.529th of 402 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 47.15187th of 402 | 50.6350th of 402 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.41261st of 570 | 49.9774th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 12 | 73 |
| Matches rated | 251 | 318 |
Serve and return
| Misolic | Diaz Acosta | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 57.6% | 64.4% |
| Return pts won | 35.6% | 42.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 68.3% | 82.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setDiaz Acosta 72%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setDiaz Acosta 81%set by set, before calibration; published 76% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeDiaz Acosta 25.9, Misolic 25.2small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -4.5
- First line
- -4.5
- Latest
- -4.5
Alcaraz -4.5 at -139
- Model
- 88.2%
- First line
- 87.3%
- Latest
- 87.3%
Moneyline Berrettini M. +650 / Alcaraz C. -1060 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / BetRivers · 7:34 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / BetRivers · as of 7:34 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Alcaraz | Berrettini | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 70.47th of 472 | 70.29th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 43.91st of 472 | 33.6196th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 57.182nd of 472 | 51.8731st of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 57.112nd of 570 | 51.8230th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 9 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 47 | 42 |
| Matches rated | 416 | 448 |
Serve and return
| Alcaraz | Berrettini | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 73.0% | 61.1% |
| Return pts won | 38.9% | 27.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 93.3% | 75.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setAlcaraz 83%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setAlcaraz 92%set by set, before calibration; published 88% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeBerrettini 30.6, Alcaraz 23.5small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 51.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 53.1%
Decimal odds 1.74 / 1.97, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Cecchinato | Monteiro | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 61.4136th of 402 | 62.993rd of 402 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 34.4177th of 402 | 33.0257th of 402 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 47.89146th of 402 | 47.93145th of 402 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.40185th of 570 | 47.50181st of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 61 | 48 |
| Matches rated | 828 | 734 |
Serve and return
| Cecchinato | Monteiro | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 63.3% | 63.7% |
| Return pts won | 36.3% | 36.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 80.1% | 80.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMonteiro 51%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMonteiro 52%set by set, before calibration; published 52% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeMonteiro 32.4, Cecchinato 34.1small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 52.9%
- First line
- 47.4%
- Latest
- 47.4%
Moneyline Fils A. +101 / Fritz T. -123 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings · 7:34 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings · as of 7:34 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Fritz | Fils | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 72.13rd of 472 | 69.413th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 36.558th of 472 | 38.812th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 54.315th of 472 | 54.098th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 54.225th of 570 | 54.186th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 60 | 51 |
| Matches rated | 682 | 274 |
Serve and return
| Fritz | Fils | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 68.5% | 69.3% |
| Return pts won | 30.7% | 31.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 88.2% | 89.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setFils 52%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setFils 54%set by set, before calibration; published 53% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeFils 22.4, Fritz 29.0small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 81.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 86.5%
Decimal odds 1.07 / 6.88, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Roncadelli | Seyboth Wild | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 54.8364th of 402 | 65.045th of 402 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 37.256th of 402 | 35.3132nd of 402 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 46.00242nd of 402 | 50.1760th of 402 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.42320th of 570 | 49.6285th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 9 |
| Matches, 12 months | 53 | 52 |
| Matches rated | 127 | 429 |
Serve and return
| Roncadelli | Seyboth Wild | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 55.7% | 64.1% |
| Return pts won | 35.9% | 44.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 64.1% | 81.5% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setSeyboth Wild 77%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSeyboth Wild 86%set by set, before calibration; published 81% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →