ATP Tennis predictions Wed, Nov 4
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every ATP match. Methodology →
13 tour-level matches on this slate · 109–70 since Oct 20 (model V4) →
23 Challenger matches · Challenger: 93–66 since Oct 27 (model V4) →
Games
Paris
#29
Tiafoe
#38
Halys
Biggest factor: Return edge · Tiafoe
#41
Rinderknech
#63
Bellucci
#31
Tien
#87
Van Assche
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Tien
#20
Musetti
#3
Zverev
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Zverev
#4
Medvedev
#67
Buse
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Medvedev
#12
De Minaur
#54
Etcheverry
Biggest factor: Return edge · De Minaur
#114
Hijikata
#5
Djokovic
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Djokovic
#6
Fritz
#48
Molcan
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Fritz
#17
Khachanov
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Khachanov
#36
Humbert
#30
Berrettini
#52
Struff
#64
Tirante
Biggest factor: Return edge · Tirante
#2
Alcaraz
#21
Michelsen
Biggest factor: Return edge · Alcaraz
#55
Machac
#7
Fils
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Fils
ATP Challenger 23 matches
Bratislava Challenger
#141
Mpetshi Perricard
#105
Svrcina
Biggest factor: Return edge · Svrcina
#218
Coppejans
#188
Budkov Kjaer
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Budkov Kjaer
#126
Virtanen
#201
Sachko
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Virtanen
#229
Gentzsch
#95
Damm
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Damm
#155
Dodig
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Dodig
#69
Samuel
Pokorny
Biggest factor: Return edge · Samuel
#173
Piros
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Gueymard Wayenburg
#197
Brunold
#93
Basavareddy
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Basavareddy
#100
Kym
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Kym
Charlottesville Challenger
#165
Kasnikowski
#168
Draxl
#210
Cassone
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Cassone
#204
Blanch
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Blanch
#118
Giron
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Giron
Taipei Challenger
Broady
Broom
#175
Mayot
Biggest factor: Return edge · Mayot
#206
Tseng
Biggest factor: Return edge · Tseng
#176
Muller
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Muller
#261
Harris
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Kumstat
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Holmgren
Villa Maria Challenger
#367
Ficovich
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Kicker
Biggest factor: Return edge · Roca Batalla
Biggest factor: Return edge · Ratti
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 50.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 47.7%
Decimal odds 1.78 / 1.95, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Broady | Broom | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 60.0 | 60.0 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.7 | 34.0 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.38 | 46.96 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.99 | 46.85 |
| Matches rated | 581 | 167 |
Serve and return
| Broady | Broom | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 60.6% | 60.6% |
| Return pts won | 39.4% | 39.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 74.8% | 74.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setBroady 50%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBroady 50%set by set, before calibration; published 50% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeBroom 28.5, Broady 32.8small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 81.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 82.2%
Decimal odds 1.14 / 5.28, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Bar Biryukov | Mayot | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.6176th of 471 | 61.4187th of 471 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 26.3462nd of 471 | 34.9124th of 471 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 43.93383rd of 471 | 48.16150th of 471 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 43.48453rd of 569 | 47.67175th of 569 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 46 | 39 |
| Matches rated | 107 | 314 |
Serve and return
| Bar Biryukov | Mayot | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.3% | 71.2% |
| Return pts won | 28.8% | 37.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 78.2% | 91.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMayot 76%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMayot 86%set by set, before calibration; published 81% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 67.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 65.4%
Decimal odds 2.68 / 1.42, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Tseng | Overbeck | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 59.8257th of 471 | 60.0248th of 471 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.9181st of 471 | 29.6403rd of 471 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.82222nd of 471 | 44.80336th of 471 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.18206th of 569 | 44.35396th of 569 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 50 | 29 |
| Matches rated | 394 | 34 |
Serve and return
| Tseng | Overbeck | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 66.1% | 61.7% |
| Return pts won | 38.3% | 33.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 84.7% | 77.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setTseng 64%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setTseng 71%set by set, before calibration; published 67% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelOverbeck 9, Tseng 58counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 78.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 61.5%
Decimal odds 2.43 / 1.52, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Muller | Demin | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.6179th of 471 | 57.2 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.4152nd of 471 | 30.7 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.99156th of 471 | 43.93 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.67176th of 569 | 43.49 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 36 | 9 |
| Matches rated | 509 | 31 |
Serve and return
| Muller | Demin | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 66.0% | 58.4% |
| Return pts won | 41.6% | 34.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 84.5% | 70.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMuller 74%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMuller 83%set by set, before calibration; published 79% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelDemin 9, Muller 23counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 55.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 52.2%
Decimal odds 1.78 / 1.94, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Harris | Kumstat | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 60.4232nd of 471 | 61.6180th of 471 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.5264th of 471 | 31.8309th of 471 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.45244th of 471 | 46.67231st of 471 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.41261st of 569 | 47.80167th of 569 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 47 | 30 |
| Matches rated | 319 | 48 |
Serve and return
| Harris | Kumstat | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.3% | 64.6% |
| Return pts won | 35.4% | 36.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 80.0% | 82.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setKumstat 54%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setKumstat 56%set by set, before calibration; published 55% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 57.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 40.6%
Decimal odds 2.25 / 1.54, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Mpetshi Perricard | Svrcina | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 67.926th of 471 | 58.6308th of 471 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 28.9425th of 471 | 40.26th of 471 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.42139th of 471 | 49.4095th of 471 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.49141st of 569 | 49.27105th of 569 |
| Wins, last 10 | 2 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 33 | 46 |
| Matches rated | 260 | 309 |
Serve and return
| Mpetshi Perricard | Svrcina | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 64.0% | 65.8% |
| Return pts won | 34.2% | 36.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 81.2% | 84.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setSvrcina 56%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSvrcina 59%set by set, before calibration; published 57% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeSvrcina 24.1, Mpetshi Perricard 23.3small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelSvrcina 23, Mpetshi Perricard 2counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 63.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 59.7%
Decimal odds 1.47 / 2.18, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Coppejans | Budkov Kjaer | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 59.0287th of 471 | 61.1196th of 471 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 35.0119th of 471 | 33.9177th of 471 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.02209th of 471 | 47.53175th of 471 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.05218th of 569 | 47.36188th of 569 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 54 | 52 |
| Matches rated | 673 | 134 |
Serve and return
| Coppejans | Budkov Kjaer | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 59.6% | 62.9% |
| Return pts won | 37.1% | 40.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 72.8% | 79.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setBudkov Kjaer 61%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBudkov Kjaer 66%set by set, before calibration; published 63% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeBudkov Kjaer 20.2, Coppejans 32.7small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchBudkov Kjaer from claygames projection only, not the win chance
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 55.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 57.5%
Decimal odds 2.19 / 1.62, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Holmgren | Shimizu | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 63.898th of 471 | 59.3 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 30.0391st of 471 | 32.9 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.89217th of 471 | 46.11 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.80235th of 569 | 45.91 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 52 | – |
| Matches rated | 202 | 254 |
Serve and return
| Holmgren | Shimizu | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 66.1% | 64.8% |
| Return pts won | 35.2% | 33.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 84.8% | 82.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setHolmgren 54%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setHolmgren 57%set by set, before calibration; published 55% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeShimizu 27.4, Holmgren 28.5small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 66.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 67.7%
Decimal odds 2.89 / 1.38, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Virtanen | Sachko | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 64.381st of 471 | 59.6270th of 471 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.3215th of 471 | 34.6140th of 471 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.81121st of 471 | 47.06208th of 471 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.79126th of 569 | 47.23201st of 569 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 48 | 36 |
| Matches rated | 303 | 364 |
Serve and return
| Virtanen | Sachko | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 65.6% | 61.4% |
| Return pts won | 38.6% | 34.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 83.9% | 76.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setVirtanen 64%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setVirtanen 70%set by set, before calibration; published 67% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeSachko 29.3, Virtanen 25.4small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchSachko from claygames projection only, not the win chance
- Days since last event Not in the modelSachko 37, Virtanen 9counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -0.5
- First line
- -1.5
- Latest
- -1.5
Tiafoe -1.5 at -109
- Model
- 55.5%
- First line
- 56.9%
- Latest
- 56.9%
Moneyline Halys Q. +121 / Tiafoe F. -148 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · 7:33 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 7:33 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Tiafoe | Halys | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 66.936th of 471 | 68.918th of 471 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 37.140th of 471 | 33.9179th of 471 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 52.0029th of 471 | 51.4037th of 471 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 51.9029th of 569 | 51.3538th of 569 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 63 | 64 |
| Matches rated | 631 | 667 |
Serve and return
| Tiafoe | Halys | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 68.2% | 66.8% |
| Return pts won | 33.2% | 31.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 87.8% | 85.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setTiafoe 55%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setTiafoe 57%set by set, before calibration; published 55% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeHalys 30.0, Tiafoe 28.8small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -0.5
- First line
- +1.5
- Latest
- +1.5
Rinderknech +1.5 at -108
- Model
- 51.0%
- First line
- 45.0%
- Latest
- 45.0%
Moneyline Bellucci M. -136 / Rinderknech A. +112 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · 7:33 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 7:33 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Rinderknech | Bellucci | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 68.521st of 471 | 65.165th of 471 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.6194th of 471 | 35.780th of 471 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 51.0741st of 471 | 50.4159th of 471 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 51.2841st of 569 | 50.2563rd of 569 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 34 | 64 |
| Matches rated | 423 | 306 |
Serve and return
| Rinderknech | Bellucci | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 67.6% | 67.4% |
| Return pts won | 32.6% | 32.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 87.0% | 86.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setRinderknech 51%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setRinderknech 51%set by set, before calibration; published 51% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeBellucci 25.4, Rinderknech 31.3small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- -3.0
- Latest
- -3.0
Tien -3.0 at +102
- Model
- 68.2%
- First line
- 64.9%
- Latest
- 64.9%
Moneyline Van Assche L. +172 / Tien L. -213 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · 7:33 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 7:33 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Tien | Van Assche | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 64.872nd of 471 | 61.6182nd of 471 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 38.912th of 471 | 37.925th of 471 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 51.8631st of 471 | 49.7287th of 471 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 51.7831st of 569 | 49.5987th of 569 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 51 | 69 |
| Matches rated | 173 | 340 |
Serve and return
| Tien | Van Assche | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.6% | 59.0% |
| Return pts won | 41.0% | 36.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 80.5% | 71.5% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setTien 65%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setTien 72%set by set, before calibration; published 68% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeVan Assche 22.5, Tien 20.9small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- -3.0
- Latest
- -3.0
Zverev -3.0 at -105
- Model
- 68.9%
- First line
- 69.8%
- Latest
- 68.0%
Moneyline Zverev A. -249 / Musetti L. +198 (vig removed) · opened 69.8%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 69.8%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Mon 7:30 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 7:33 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Musetti | Zverev | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 67.630th of 471 | 73.32nd of 471 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 37.924th of 471 | 38.121st of 471 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 52.7319th of 471 | 55.713rd of 471 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 52.6720th of 569 | 55.703rd of 569 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 40 | 79 |
| Matches rated | 418 | 817 |
Serve and return
| Musetti | Zverev | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 65.4% | 70.5% |
| Return pts won | 29.5% | 34.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 83.6% | 90.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setZverev 66%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setZverev 73%set by set, before calibration; published 69% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeZverev 29.5, Musetti 24.7small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 74.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 73.1%
Decimal odds 1.28 / 3.47, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Gentzsch | Damm | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 60.7216th of 471 | 67.728th of 471 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 31.9303rd of 471 | 31.6317th of 471 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.31253rd of 471 | 49.6592nd of 471 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.88229th of 569 | 49.4895th of 569 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 59 | 53 |
| Matches rated | 122 | 203 |
Serve and return
| Gentzsch | Damm | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 65.4% | 72.1% |
| Return pts won | 27.9% | 34.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 83.6% | 92.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setDamm 70%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setDamm 79%set by set, before calibration; published 74% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeDamm 23.1, Gentzsch 23.2small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchGentzsch from grassgames projection only, not the win chance
- Days since last event Not in the modelDamm 9, Gentzsch 23counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -4.5
- First line
- -5.0
- Latest
- -5.0
Medvedev -5.0 at -101
- Model
- 81.6%
- First line
- 83.3%
- Latest
- 83.3%
Moneyline Buse I. +473 / Medvedev D. -690 (vig removed)
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 83.3%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Mon 7:30 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 7:33 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Medvedev | Buse | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 68.322nd of 471 | 61.8162nd of 471 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 41.23rd of 471 | 37.729th of 471 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 54.774th of 471 | 49.7585th of 471 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 54.464th of 569 | 50.1167th of 569 |
| Wins, last 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 69 | 59 |
| Matches rated | 715 | 198 |
Serve and return
| Medvedev | Buse | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 65.6% | 57.0% |
| Return pts won | 43.0% | 34.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 83.9% | 67.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setMedvedev 77%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMedvedev 86%set by set, before calibration; published 82% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeBuse 22.6, Medvedev 30.7small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- -4.0
- Latest
- -4.0
De Minaur -4.0 at -110
- Model
- 72.0%
- First line
- 79.7%
- Latest
- 79.7%
Moneyline Etcheverry T. +371 / De Minaur A. -509 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · 7:33 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 7:33 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| De Minaur | Etcheverry | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 66.243rd of 471 | 67.035th of 471 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 41.14th of 471 | 34.5147th of 471 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 53.6411th of 471 | 50.7247th of 471 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 53.5712th of 569 | 50.5454th of 569 |
| Wins, last 10 | 8 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 63 | 53 |
| Matches rated | 565 | 444 |
Serve and return
| De Minaur | Etcheverry | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 67.2% | 61.4% |
| Return pts won | 38.6% | 32.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 86.4% | 76.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setDe Minaur 68%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setDe Minaur 76%set by set, before calibration; published 72% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeEtcheverry 27.3, De Minaur 27.7small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 50.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 64.1%
Decimal odds 1.43 / 2.55, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Ficovich | Aguilar Cardozo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 58.0253rd of 402 | 54.0377th of 402 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 32.8266th of 402 | 36.483rd of 402 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 45.42273rd of 402 | 45.19286th of 402 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.75367th of 569 | 44.68370th of 569 |
| Wins, last 10 | 2 | 8 |
| Matches, 12 months | 37 | 30 |
| Matches rated | 437 | 27 |
Serve and return
| Ficovich | Aguilar Cardozo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 57.3% | 57.4% |
| Return pts won | 42.6% | 42.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 67.8% | 67.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setAguilar Cardozo 50%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setAguilar Cardozo 50%set by set, before calibration; published 50% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelAguilar Cardozo 9, Ficovich 16counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -3.5
- First line
- -3.5
- Latest
- -3.5
Djokovic -3.5 at -114
- Model
- 80.8%
- First line
- 76.3%
- Latest
- 76.3%
Moneyline Djokovic N. -398 / Hijikata R. +302 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · 7:33 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 7:33 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Hijikata | Djokovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.8165th of 471 | 70.67th of 471 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 36.268th of 471 | 38.320th of 471 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.99109th of 471 | 54.485th of 471 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.02114th of 569 | 54.385th of 569 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 70 | 27 |
| Matches rated | 346 | 1295 |
Serve and return
| Hijikata | Djokovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 59.3% | 67.8% |
| Return pts won | 32.2% | 40.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 72.1% | 87.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setDjokovic 76%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setDjokovic 86%set by set, before calibration; published 81% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeDjokovic 39.5, Hijikata 25.7small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 74.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 85.8%
Decimal odds 1.09 / 6.56, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Krajci | Dodig | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 58.0 | 62.1150th of 471 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 31.1 | 32.5265th of 471 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 44.56 | 47.30194th of 471 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 43.87 | 48.08155th of 569 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 8 |
| Matches, 12 months | 4 | 56 |
| Matches rated | 17 | 161 |
Serve and return
| Krajci | Dodig | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.1% | 67.6% |
| Return pts won | 32.4% | 38.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 75.8% | 87.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setDodig 71%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setDodig 79%set by set, before calibration; published 74% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelDodig 16, Krajci 156counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -3.5
- First line
- -3.5
- Latest
- -3.5
Fritz -3.5 at -152
- Model
- 77.8%
- First line
- 76.8%
- Latest
- 76.8%
Moneyline Molcan A. +311 / Fritz T. -411 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / BetRivers · 7:33 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / BetRivers · as of 7:33 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Fritz | Molcan | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 71.84th of 471 | 63.5106th of 471 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 36.758th of 471 | 37.334th of 471 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 54.276th of 471 | 50.4258th of 471 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 54.186th of 569 | 50.7348th of 569 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 59 | 42 |
| Matches rated | 681 | 387 |
Serve and return
| Fritz | Molcan | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 69.7% | 62.0% |
| Return pts won | 38.0% | 30.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 89.7% | 77.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setFritz 73%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setFritz 83%set by set, before calibration; published 78% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeMolcan 28.9, Fritz 29.0small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -1.5
- First line
- -2.5
- Latest
- -2.5
Khachanov -2.5 at -108
- Model
- 61.6%
- First line
- 65.2%
- Latest
- 65.2%
Moneyline Borges N. +174 / Khachanov K. -216 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · 7:33 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 7:33 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Khachanov | Borges | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 69.213th of 471 | 66.440th of 471 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 36.851st of 471 | 36.659th of 471 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 53.0317th of 471 | 51.4636th of 471 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 52.9317th of 569 | 51.6233rd of 569 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 49 | 57 |
| Matches rated | 653 | 365 |
Serve and return
| Khachanov | Borges | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 67.6% | 64.6% |
| Return pts won | 35.4% | 32.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 87.0% | 82.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setKhachanov 60%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setKhachanov 64%set by set, before calibration; published 62% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeBorges 29.7, Khachanov 30.5small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 85.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 80.3%
Decimal odds 4.72 / 1.16, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Samuel | Pokorny | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 63.4108th of 471 | 60.4 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 37.630th of 471 | 30.7 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.5156th of 471 | 45.57 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 50.0569th of 569 | 45.29 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 59 | – |
| Matches rated | 92 | 79 |
Serve and return
| Samuel | Pokorny | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 68.8% | 58.4% |
| Return pts won | 41.6% | 31.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 88.6% | 70.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setSamuel 81%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSamuel 90%set by set, before calibration; published 86% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelPokorny 58, Samuel 9counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 51.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 50.1%
Decimal odds 1.83 / 1.84, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Piros | Gueymard Wayenburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 60.1245th of 471 | 62.0153rd of 471 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.5142nd of 471 | 33.0234th of 471 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.33192nd of 471 | 47.50176th of 471 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.70173rd of 569 | 46.95222nd of 569 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 59 | 55 |
| Matches rated | 384 | 163 |
Serve and return
| Piros | Gueymard Wayenburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.7% | 63.1% |
| Return pts won | 36.9% | 37.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 78.9% | 79.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setGueymard Wayenburg 51%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setGueymard Wayenburg 52%set by set, before calibration; published 52% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -0.1
- First line
- -0.5
- Latest
- -0.5
Humbert -0.5 at -106
- Model
- 51.0%
- First line
- 52.4%
- Latest
- 52.4%
Moneyline Berrettini M. +100 / Humbert U. -122 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · 7:33 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 7:33 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Humbert | Berrettini | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 68.025th of 471 | 70.28th of 471 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 35.593rd of 471 | 33.5203rd of 471 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 51.7834th of 471 | 51.8432nd of 471 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 51.5236th of 569 | 51.8030th of 569 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 52 | 41 |
| Matches rated | 485 | 447 |
Serve and return
| Humbert | Berrettini | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 69.9% | 69.6% |
| Return pts won | 30.4% | 30.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 89.9% | 89.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setHumbert 51%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setHumbert 51%set by set, before calibration; published 51% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeBerrettini 30.6, Humbert 28.4small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -0.2
- First line
- +3.5
- Latest
- +3.5
Tirante +3.5 at -143
- Model
- 51.9%
- First line
- 28.8%
- Latest
- 28.8%
Moneyline Tirante T. +231 / Struff J. -295 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / BetRivers · 7:33 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / BetRivers · as of 7:33 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Struff | Tirante | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 67.233rd of 471 | 65.947th of 471 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.5143rd of 471 | 34.3159th of 471 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.8646th of 471 | 50.1170th of 471 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 50.6552nd of 569 | 50.2564th of 569 |
| Wins, last 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 57 | 52 |
| Matches rated | 849 | 386 |
Serve and return
| Struff | Tirante | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 66.7% | 67.2% |
| Return pts won | 32.8% | 33.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 85.7% | 86.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setTirante 52%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setTirante 52%set by set, before calibration; published 52% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeTirante 25.6, Struff 36.5small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelTirante 16, Struff 1counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 50.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 48.1%
Decimal odds 1.77 / 1.91, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Kasnikowski | Draxl | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 62.3146th of 471 | 60.4229th of 471 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.6191st of 471 | 35.688th of 471 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.95160th of 471 | 47.99155th of 471 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.87165th of 569 | 47.75168th of 569 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 64 | 55 |
| Matches rated | 206 | 222 |
Serve and return
| Kasnikowski | Draxl | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.9% | 62.7% |
| Return pts won | 37.3% | 37.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 79.3% | 78.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setKasnikowski 51%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setKasnikowski 51%set by set, before calibration; published 51% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeDraxl 24.9, Kasnikowski 23.3small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 62.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 53.0%
Decimal odds 1.73 / 1.95, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Kozlov | Cassone | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 57.1 | 62.6133rd of 471 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 35.6 | 32.3283rd of 471 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.32 | 47.44183rd of 471 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.25 | 47.12210th of 569 |
| Wins, last 10 | – | 8 |
| Matches, 12 months | – | 41 |
| Matches rated | 460 | 160 |
Serve and return
| Kozlov | Cassone | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 60.1% | 63.1% |
| Return pts won | 36.9% | 39.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 73.8% | 79.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setCassone 60%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setCassone 65%set by set, before calibration; published 62% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeCassone 24.2, Kozlov 28.8small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchCassone from grassgames projection only, not the win chance
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 68.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 65.0%
Decimal odds 1.43 / 2.65, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Brunold | Basavareddy | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 59.9251st of 471 | 63.4113th of 471 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 35.0118th of 471 | 36.069th of 471 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.48181st of 471 | 49.7089th of 471 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.24197th of 569 | 49.4993rd of 569 |
| Wins, last 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 38 | 42 |
| Matches rated | 133 | 168 |
Serve and return
| Brunold | Basavareddy | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 60.3% | 64.9% |
| Return pts won | 35.1% | 39.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 74.3% | 82.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setBasavareddy 65%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBasavareddy 72%set by set, before calibration; published 68% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeBasavareddy 21.5, Brunold 22.1small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 79.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 74.6%
Decimal odds 1.24 / 3.64, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Pavlovic | Kym | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.3191st of 471 | 65.456th of 471 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 30.9356th of 471 | 34.7133rd of 471 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.10265th of 471 | 50.0274th of 471 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.84296th of 569 | 49.39100th of 569 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 8 |
| Matches, 12 months | 44 | 38 |
| Matches rated | 125 | 166 |
Serve and return
| Pavlovic | Kym | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.2% | 70.6% |
| Return pts won | 29.4% | 37.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 78.0% | 90.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setKym 75%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setKym 84%set by set, before calibration; published 80% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeKym 23.7, Pavlovic 26.6small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchPavlovic from claygames projection only, not the win chance
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 73.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 77.3%
Decimal odds 4.05 / 1.19, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Kicker | Aguilar Cardozo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 57.3 | 51.8 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 34.7 | 32.9 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 45.96 | 42.34 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.41 | 41.91 |
| Wins, last 10 | – | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | – | 5 |
| Matches rated | 435 | 15 |
Serve and return
| Kicker | Aguilar Cardozo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 59.3% | 53.4% |
| Return pts won | 46.6% | 40.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 72.1% | 58.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setKicker 70%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setKicker 78%set by set, before calibration; published 74% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 75.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 80.6%
Decimal odds 1.13 / 4.69, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Tabata | Roca Batalla | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 57.5 | 60.9 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 30.0 | 34.6 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 43.74 | 47.74 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 42.40505th of 569 | 47.32 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 12 | – |
| Matches rated | 18 | 370 |
Serve and return
| Tabata | Roca Batalla | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 59.2% | 66.0% |
| Return pts won | 34.0% | 40.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 71.8% | 84.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setRoca Batalla 72%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setRoca Batalla 81%set by set, before calibration; published 76% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -3.5
- First line
- -4.5
- Latest
- -4.5
Alcaraz -4.5 at -117
- Model
- 81.0%
- First line
- 81.6%
- Latest
- 81.6%
Moneyline Michelsen A. +420 / Alcaraz C. -592 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / BetRivers · 7:33 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / BetRivers · as of 7:33 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Alcaraz | Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 70.29th of 471 | 66.638th of 471 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 44.01st of 471 | 38.914th of 471 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 57.122nd of 471 | 52.7418th of 471 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 57.052nd of 569 | 52.4821st of 569 |
| Wins, last 10 | 9 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 46 | 63 |
| Matches rated | 415 | 261 |
Serve and return
| Alcaraz | Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 67.5% | 59.0% |
| Return pts won | 41.0% | 32.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 86.9% | 71.5% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setAlcaraz 76%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setAlcaraz 86%set by set, before calibration; published 81% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeMichelsen 22.2, Alcaraz 23.5small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 75.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 61.7%
Decimal odds 2.29 / 1.42, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Blanch | Shick | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 62.5140th of 471 | 57.9342nd of 471 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.3280th of 471 | 31.5326th of 471 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.37189th of 471 | 44.69342nd of 471 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.21204th of 569 | 44.43391st of 569 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 62 | 32 |
| Matches rated | 104 | 40 |
Serve and return
| Blanch | Shick | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 68.0% | 61.2% |
| Return pts won | 38.8% | 32.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 87.5% | 76.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setBlanch 71%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBlanch 80%set by set, before calibration; published 75% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -3.5
- First line
- -3.0
- Latest
- -2.5
Fils -2.5 at -116 · opened -3.0
- Model
- 77.1%
- First line
- 65.2%
- Latest
- 63.3%
Moneyline Fils A. -197 / Machac T. +160 (vig removed) · opened 65.2%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 65.2%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Mon 7:30 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 7:33 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Machac | Fils | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 64.189th of 471 | 68.916th of 471 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 37.044th of 471 | 38.913th of 471 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.5653rd of 471 | 53.908th of 471 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 50.4855th of 569 | 54.007th of 569 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 36 | 50 |
| Matches rated | 358 | 273 |
Serve and return
| Machac | Fils | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.0% | 68.3% |
| Return pts won | 31.7% | 39.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 75.6% | 87.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setFils 73%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setFils 82%set by set, before calibration; published 77% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeFils 22.4, Machac 26.1small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 78.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 74.2%
Decimal odds 1.23 / 3.54, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Boulais | Giron | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 56.8388th of 471 | 63.6101st of 471 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.4270th of 471 | 34.3161st of 471 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 44.60346th of 471 | 48.96112th of 471 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.30401st of 569 | 48.98118th of 569 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 30 | 42 |
| Matches rated | 114 | 563 |
Serve and return
| Boulais | Giron | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 58.1% | 65.6% |
| Return pts won | 34.4% | 41.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 69.4% | 84.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setGiron 74%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setGiron 83%set by set, before calibration; published 78% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 53.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 48.1%
Decimal odds 1.91 / 1.77, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Zarate | Ratti | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 54.7366th of 402 | 55.2354th of 402 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 31.1344th of 402 | 31.6323rd of 402 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 42.92368th of 402 | 43.39358th of 402 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 42.38506th of 569 | 43.07474th of 569 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 31 | 32 |
| Matches rated | 46 | 49 |
Serve and return
| Zarate | Ratti | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 59.4% | 60.3% |
| Return pts won | 39.7% | 40.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 72.2% | 74.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setRatti 53%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setRatti 55%set by set, before calibration; published 54% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →