ATP Tennis predictions Tue, Nov 3
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every ATP match. Methodology →
12 tour-level matches on this slate · 103–65 since Oct 20 (model V4) →
30 Challenger matches · Challenger: 71–51 since Oct 27 (model V4) →
Games
Paris
#54
Etcheverry
#28
Rublev
Biggest factor: Return edge: Rublev breaks 17% vs 12% · Rublev +4.2 pts
#25
Cerundolo
#41
Rinderknech
Biggest factor: Return edge: Cerundolo breaks 19% vs 15% · Rinderknech +4.4 pts
#78
Fery
#38
Halys
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Halys holds 86% vs 83% · Halys +3.4 pts
#220
Kouame
#19
Davidovich Fokina
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Davidovich Fokina holds 88% vs 72% · Davidovich Fokina +16.4 pts
#31
Berrettini
#26
Nakashima
Biggest factor: Return edge: Nakashima breaks 11% vs 8% · Nakashima +2.3 pts
#42
Vacherot
#5
Djokovic
Biggest factor: Return edge: Djokovic breaks 17% vs 10% · Djokovic +6.8 pts
Rune
Biggest factor: Return edge: Paul breaks 21% vs 14% · Paul +6.6 pts
#12
Lehecka
#24
Michelsen
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Lehecka holds 86% vs 84% · Michelsen +2.8 pts
#6
Fritz
#66
Bonzi
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Fritz holds 92% vs 79% · Bonzi +12.5 pts
#56
Gea
#52
Struff
Biggest factor: Return edge: Gea breaks 21% vs 16% · Struff +5.0 pts
#43
Norrie
#18
Shelton
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Shelton holds 90% vs 82% · Shelton +7.9 pts
#16
Jodar
#13
Ruud
Biggest factor: Return edge: Jodar breaks 20% vs 18% · Ruud +1.8 pts
ATP Challenger 30 matches
Bratislava Challenger
#193
Brunold
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Brunold holds 83% vs 63% · Brunold +19.7 pts
#99
Kym
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Kym holds 86% vs 71% · Kym +14.5 pts
#192
Butvilas
#98
Djere
Biggest factor: Return edge: Djere breaks 22% vs 20% · Djere +2.0 pts
#417
Vasa
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Gueymard Wayenburg holds 87% vs 76% · Vasa +10.9 pts
#143
Mpetshi Perricard
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Mpetshi Perricard holds 91% vs 84% · Mpetshi Perricard +6.5 pts
#277
Gombos
#105
Svrcina
Biggest factor: Return edge: Svrcina breaks 40% vs 22% · Svrcina +18.8 pts
#185
Travaglia
#168
Rodionov
Biggest factor: Return edge: Rodionov breaks 25% vs 22% · Rodionov +2.9 pts
#199
Budkov Kjaer
#190
Mochizuki
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Budkov Kjaer holds 76% vs 73% · Mochizuki +2.6 pts
#221
Coppejans
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Forejtek holds 76% vs 74% · Coppejans +2.0 pts
Charlottesville Challenger
#149
Royer
Biggest factor: Return edge: Royer breaks 24% vs 13% · Gray +11.0 pts
#117
Chidekh
Biggest factor: Return edge: Chidekh breaks 35% vs 18% · Santamarta Roig +16.9 pts
#121
Giron
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Dietrich holds 87% vs 79% · Giron +8.2 pts
#316
Svajda
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Rehberg holds 81% vs 77% · Rehberg +3.7 pts
#234
Wendelken
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Wendelken holds 71% vs 68% · Wendelken +3.2 pts
Costa do Sauipe Challenger
#235
Midon
Biggest factor: Return edge: Midon breaks 27% vs 19% · Andrade Da Silva +8.0 pts
#138
Pucinelli De Almeida
#77
Diaz Acosta
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Diaz Acosta holds 77% vs 71% · Diaz Acosta +6.1 pts
#111
Comesana
#200
Cecchinato
Biggest factor: Return edge: Comesana breaks 26% vs 17% · Cecchinato +9.5 pts
#163
Ugo Carabelli
Sanchez Izquierdo
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Ugo Carabelli holds 75% vs 70% · Sanchez Izquierdo +4.4 pts
Taipei Challenger
#205
Sakellaridis
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Sakellaridis holds 84% vs 77% · Sakellaridis +6.8 pts
#331
Hsu
Biggest factor: Return edge: Hsu breaks 28% vs 25% · Hsu +3.8 pts
Biggest factor: Return edge: Leong breaks 28% vs 26% · Imamura +2.6 pts
Biggest factor: Return edge: Erel breaks 18% vs 14% · McCabe +4.8 pts
#188
Watanuki
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Harris holds 86% vs 77% · Harris +8.7 pts
#180
Shimabukuro
#328
Poljicak
Biggest factor: Return edge: Shimabukuro breaks 22% vs 15% · Poljicak +6.8 pts
Villa Maria Challenger
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Rodriguez holds 75% vs 68% · Rodriguez +6.7 pts
Biggest factor: Return edge: Casanova breaks 41% vs 23% · Cigarran +18.1 pts
Biggest factor: Return edge: Estevez breaks 30% vs 27% · Estevez +3.0 pts
Biggest factor: Return edge: Aboian breaks 27% vs 25% · Magadan +2.2 pts
Biggest factor: Return edge: Torres breaks 51% vs 12% · Torres +38.7 pts
Biggest factor: Return edge: Agamenone breaks 42% vs 29% · Agamenone +12.5 pts
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 65.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 55.3%
Decimal odds 1.69 / 2.09, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Shimizu | Sakellaridis | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 58.9 | 61.9164th of 479 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.8 | 32.7257th of 479 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 45.83 | 47.26201st of 479 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.62 | 47.24205th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | – | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | – | 54 |
| Matches rated | 252 | 138 |
Serve and return
| Shimizu | Sakellaridis | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.8% | 65.6% |
| Return pts won | 34.4% | 38.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 77.1% | 83.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setSakellaridis 62%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSakellaridis 68%set by set, before calibration; published 65% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeSakellaridis 22.1, Shimizu 27.4small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 57.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 60.4%
Decimal odds 1.54 / 2.35, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Jasika | Hsu | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 57.3378th of 479 | 57.9347th of 479 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.5269th of 479 | 33.4211th of 479 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 44.92333rd of 479 | 45.66292nd of 479 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.60381st of 577 | 45.21331st of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 28 | 39 |
| Matches rated | 273 | 220 |
Serve and return
| Jasika | Hsu | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 59.0% | 60.9% |
| Return pts won | 39.1% | 41.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 71.5% | 75.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setHsu 56%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setHsu 59%set by set, before calibration; published 58% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeHsu 27.6, Jasika 29.5small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 55.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 48.1%
Decimal odds 1.79 / 1.93, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Leong | Imamura | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 56.2407th of 479 | 56.3404th of 479 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.9241st of 479 | 31.6322nd of 479 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 44.58351st of 479 | 43.97382nd of 479 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.17412th of 577 | 43.62448th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 2 |
| Matches, 12 months | 30 | 44 |
| Matches rated | 72 | 107 |
Serve and return
| Leong | Imamura | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 60.3% | 59.1% |
| Return pts won | 40.9% | 39.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 74.2% | 71.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setLeong 54%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setLeong 56%set by set, before calibration; published 55% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelImamura 8, Leong 50counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 61.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 43.9%
Decimal odds 1.66 / 2.12, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Erel | McCabe | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.2197th of 479 | 60.4231st of 479 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.5271st of 479 | 29.5411th of 479 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.81227th of 479 | 44.98330th of 479 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.33271st of 577 | 44.90360th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 2 |
| Matches, 12 months | 24 | 44 |
| Matches rated | 85 | 229 |
Serve and return
| Erel | McCabe | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 67.3% | 64.2% |
| Return pts won | 35.8% | 32.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 86.5% | 81.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setErel 60%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setErel 64%set by set, before calibration; published 62% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelMcCabe 8, Erel 35counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 69.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 59.3%
Decimal odds 1.57 / 2.29, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Watanuki | Harris | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 60.8215th of 479 | 66.244th of 479 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.7138th of 479 | 34.5152nd of 479 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.73170th of 479 | 50.3464th of 479 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.39188th of 577 | 50.1567th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 25 | 42 |
| Matches rated | 370 | 455 |
Serve and return
| Watanuki | Harris | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.6% | 66.6% |
| Return pts won | 33.4% | 38.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 76.9% | 85.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setHarris 66%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setHarris 73%set by set, before calibration; published 69% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeHarris 29.7, Watanuki 28.6small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelHarris 8, Watanuki 22counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -1.5
- First line
- -3.0
- Latest
- -3.0
Rublev -3.0 at -106
- Model
- 60.9%
- First line
- 68.8%
- Latest
- 67.4%
Moneyline Rublev A. -241 / Etcheverry T. +192 (vig removed) · opened 68.8%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 3 captures, first 68.8%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sat 8:33 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 7:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Etcheverry | Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 66.837th of 479 | 67.432nd of 479 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.6143rd of 479 | 37.140th of 479 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.7149th of 479 | 52.2826th of 479 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 50.5354th of 577 | 52.1228th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 54 | 55 |
| Matches rated | 443 | 722 |
Serve and return
| Etcheverry | Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 65.3% | 68.1% |
| Return pts won | 31.9% | 34.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 83.4% | 87.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setRublev 59%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setRublev 63%set by set, before calibration; published 61% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeRublev 29.0, Etcheverry 27.3small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -1.5
- First line
- -3.0
- Latest
- -2.5
Cerundolo -2.5 at -115 · opened -3.0
- Model
- 60.6%
- First line
- 68.7%
- Latest
- 63.8%
Moneyline Rinderknech A. +163 / Cerundolo F. -202 (vig removed) · opened 68.7%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 3 captures, first 68.7%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sat 8:33 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 7:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Cerundolo | Rinderknech | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 64.778th of 479 | 68.521st of 479 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 39.78th of 479 | 33.7195th of 479 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 52.1728th of 479 | 51.1042nd of 479 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 52.2725th of 577 | 51.3041st of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 55 | 35 |
| Matches rated | 420 | 423 |
Serve and return
| Cerundolo | Rinderknech | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 66.4% | 63.7% |
| Return pts won | 36.3% | 33.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 85.2% | 80.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setCerundolo 59%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setCerundolo 63%set by set, before calibration; published 61% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeRinderknech 31.3, Cerundolo 28.2small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -1.5
- First line
- -1.5
- Latest
- -2.0
Halys -2.0 at +100 · opened -1.5
- Model
- 58.5%
- First line
- 59.2%
- Latest
- 59.2%
Moneyline Halys Q. -164 / Fery A. +134 (vig removed)
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 3 captures, first 59.2%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sat 8:33 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 7:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Fery | Halys | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 63.0125th of 479 | 68.718th of 479 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 36.759th of 479 | 34.2170th of 479 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.8779th of 479 | 51.4736th of 479 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.8778th of 577 | 51.4138th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 54 | 64 |
| Matches rated | 157 | 666 |
Serve and return
| Fery | Halys | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 64.9% | 67.1% |
| Return pts won | 32.9% | 35.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 82.9% | 86.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setHalys 57%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setHalys 60%set by set, before calibration; published 58% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeHalys 30.0, Fery 24.3small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 65.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 71.7%
Decimal odds 3.29 / 1.30, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Shimabukuro | Poljicak | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.4188th of 479 | 59.1 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.4213th of 479 | 30.5 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.43187th of 479 | 44.83 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.54180th of 577 | 45.34328th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 61 | 28 |
| Matches rated | 285 | 114 |
Serve and return
| Shimabukuro | Poljicak | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 66.1% | 62.2% |
| Return pts won | 37.8% | 33.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 84.8% | 77.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setShimabukuro 63%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setShimabukuro 69%set by set, before calibration; published 65% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgePoljicak 22.3, Shimabukuro 29.3small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchPoljicak from claygames projection only, not the win chance
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 84.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 81.5%
Decimal odds 1.15 / 5.08, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Vrbensky | Brunold | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 54.9 | 60.1251st of 479 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 31.5 | 35.1117th of 479 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 43.19 | 47.58176th of 479 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 42.84 | 47.32193rd of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | – | 8 |
| Matches, 12 months | – | 37 |
| Matches rated | 214 | 132 |
Serve and return
| Vrbensky | Brunold | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 55.5% | 65.1% |
| Return pts won | 34.9% | 44.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 63.4% | 83.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setBrunold 80%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBrunold 89%set by set, before calibration; published 85% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeBrunold 22.1, Vrbensky 26.9small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -3.5
- First line
- -3.5
- Latest
- -3.5
Davidovich Fokina -3.5 at -115
- Model
- 83.0%
- First line
- 71.5%
- Latest
- 71.5%
Moneyline Davidovich Fokina A. -300 / Kouame M. +235 (vig removed)
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 71.5%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sun 7:30 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 7:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Kouame | Davidovich Fokina | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 59.7267th of 479 | 67.630th of 479 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.8131st of 479 | 37.827th of 479 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.20203rd of 479 | 52.7220th of 479 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.03220th of 577 | 52.7619th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 9 |
| Matches, 12 months | 40 | 47 |
| Matches rated | 46 | 460 |
Serve and return
| Kouame | Davidovich Fokina | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 59.1% | 68.4% |
| Return pts won | 31.6% | 40.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 71.7% | 88.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setDavidovich Fokina 78%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setDavidovich Fokina 88%set by set, before calibration; published 83% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeDavidovich Fokina 27.4, Kouame 17.7small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelDavidovich Fokina 16, Kouame 8counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -0.5
- First line
- -1.5
- Latest
- -1.5
Nakashima -1.5 at -112
- Model
- 57.4%
- First line
- 59.6%
- Latest
- 59.6%
Moneyline Nakashima B. -166 / Berrettini M. +136 (vig removed)
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 3 captures, first 59.6%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sat 8:33 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 7:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Berrettini | Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 69.912th of 479 | 69.114th of 479 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.6198th of 479 | 35.4102nd of 479 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 51.7433rd of 479 | 52.2627th of 479 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 51.7131st of 577 | 52.2626th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 43 | 58 |
| Matches rated | 446 | 446 |
Serve and return
| Berrettini | Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 69.5% | 71.5% |
| Return pts won | 28.5% | 30.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 89.4% | 91.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setNakashima 56%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setNakashima 59%set by set, before calibration; published 57% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeNakashima 25.3, Berrettini 30.6small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 79.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 80.5%
Decimal odds 1.16 / 4.79, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Poullain | Kym | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 58.0339th of 479 | 65.264th of 479 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.8130th of 479 | 34.8128th of 479 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.39251st of 479 | 50.0375th of 479 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.94293rd of 577 | 49.3999th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 32 | 37 |
| Matches rated | 140 | 165 |
Serve and return
| Poullain | Kym | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 58.8% | 66.7% |
| Return pts won | 33.3% | 41.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 71.1% | 85.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setKym 75%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setKym 84%set by set, before calibration; published 79% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelKym 4, Poullain 36counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- -2.5
- Latest
- -2.5
Djokovic -2.5 at -117
- Model
- 67.8%
- First line
- 65.9%
- Latest
- 65.9%
Moneyline Djokovic N. -224 / Vacherot V. +180 (vig removed)
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 65.9%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sun 7:30 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 7:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Vacherot | Djokovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 67.628th of 479 | 70.87th of 479 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.5147th of 479 | 38.124th of 479 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 51.0743rd of 479 | 54.485th of 479 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 51.1342nd of 577 | 54.375th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 43 | 30 |
| Matches rated | 221 | 1294 |
Serve and return
| Vacherot | Djokovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 65.0% | 69.7% |
| Return pts won | 30.3% | 35.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 82.9% | 89.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setDjokovic 65%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setDjokovic 72%set by set, before calibration; published 68% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeDjokovic 39.5, Vacherot 28.0small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- -3.0
- Latest
- -3.0
Paul -3.0 at -102
- Model
- 65.5%
- First line
- 64.8%
- Latest
- 64.8%
Moneyline Paul T. -213 / Rune H. +171 (vig removed)
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 3 captures, first 64.8%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sat 8:33 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 7:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Rune | Paul | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 66.7 | 67.629th of 479 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 35.9 | 40.07th of 479 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 51.31 | 53.839th of 479 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 51.28 | 53.8110th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 5 | 65 |
| Matches rated | 344 | 588 |
Serve and return
| Rune | Paul | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.9% | 66.9% |
| Return pts won | 33.1% | 37.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 79.3% | 85.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setPaul 63%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setPaul 69%set by set, before calibration; published 65% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgePaul 29.5, Rune 23.5small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 54.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 65.9%
Decimal odds 1.41 / 2.72, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Butvilas | Djere | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.4189th of 479 | 62.8131st of 479 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.2169th of 479 | 35.692nd of 479 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.80164th of 479 | 49.17102nd of 479 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.34192nd of 577 | 49.4398th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 61 | 46 |
| Matches rated | 177 | 575 |
Serve and return
| Butvilas | Djere | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.3% | 63.4% |
| Return pts won | 36.6% | 37.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 78.2% | 80.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setDjere 54%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setDjere 55%set by set, before calibration; published 54% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeDjere 31.4, Butvilas 22.3small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelDjere 8, Butvilas 22counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 74.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 83.2%
Decimal odds 5.53 / 1.12, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Gueymard Wayenburg | Vasa | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.9161st of 479 | 58.7304th of 479 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.1233rd of 479 | 29.9403rd of 479 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.49182nd of 479 | 44.29367th of 479 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.93226th of 577 | 44.05417th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 60 | 31 |
| Matches rated | 162 | 57 |
Serve and return
| Gueymard Wayenburg | Vasa | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 67.6% | 61.2% |
| Return pts won | 38.8% | 32.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 87.0% | 76.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setGueymard Wayenburg 70%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setGueymard Wayenburg 79%set by set, before calibration; published 74% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelVasa 106, Gueymard Wayenburg 8counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 62.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 67.4%
Decimal odds 1.38 / 2.85, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Aguilar Cardozo | Rodriguez | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 51.8 | 56.7309th of 403 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 32.4 | 30.6357th of 403 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 42.10 | 43.66350th of 403 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 41.67 | 43.19472nd of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 4 | 25 |
| Matches rated | 14 | 82 |
Serve and return
| Aguilar Cardozo | Rodriguez | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 57.5% | 60.6% |
| Return pts won | 39.4% | 42.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 68.1% | 74.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setRodriguez 61%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setRodriguez 66%set by set, before calibration; published 63% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelRodriguez 36, Aguilar Cardozo 351counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -0.5
- First line
- -1.5
- Latest
- -1.5
Lehecka -1.5 at -112
- Model
- 57.0%
- First line
- 57.1%
- Latest
- 57.1%
Moneyline Michelsen A. +122 / Lehecka J. -149 (vig removed)
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 57.1%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sun 7:30 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 7:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Lehecka | Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 70.010th of 479 | 66.439th of 479 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 37.434th of 479 | 38.715th of 479 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 53.6911th of 479 | 52.5422nd of 479 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 53.5812th of 577 | 52.2724th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 57 | 62 |
| Matches rated | 355 | 260 |
Serve and return
| Lehecka | Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 67.3% | 65.5% |
| Return pts won | 34.5% | 32.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 86.5% | 83.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setLehecka 56%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setLehecka 59%set by set, before calibration; published 57% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeMichelsen 22.2, Lehecka 25.0small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 80.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 76.0%
Decimal odds 3.86 / 1.22, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Casanova | Cigarran | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 56.5 | 52.5390th of 403 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 35.1 | 30.1371st of 403 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 45.83 | 41.27393rd of 403 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.31 | 40.80553rd of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | – | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | – | 25 |
| Matches rated | 253 | 57 |
Serve and return
| Casanova | Cigarran | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 61.7% | 53.6% |
| Return pts won | 46.4% | 38.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 77.0% | 58.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setCasanova 76%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setCasanova 86%set by set, before calibration; published 81% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelCigarran 22, Casanova 15counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -3.5
- First line
- -3.5
- Latest
- -3.5
Fritz -3.5 at +102
- Model
- 80.1%
- First line
- 79.4%
- Latest
- 78.0%
Moneyline Bonzi B. +333 / Fritz T. -447 (vig removed) · opened 79.4%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 79.4%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sun 7:30 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 7:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Fritz | Bonzi | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 71.84th of 479 | 64.875th of 479 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 37.048th of 479 | 35.781st of 479 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 54.406th of 479 | 50.2468th of 479 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 54.306th of 577 | 50.2066th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 58 | 58 |
| Matches rated | 680 | 515 |
Serve and return
| Fritz | Bonzi | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 71.4% | 62.8% |
| Return pts won | 37.2% | 28.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 91.6% | 79.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setFritz 75%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setFritz 85%set by set, before calibration; published 80% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeBonzi 30.4, Fritz 29.0small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 67.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 72.8%
Decimal odds 1.28 / 3.42, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Krumich | Mpetshi Perricard | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 58.5323rd of 479 | 68.025th of 479 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.7194th of 479 | 28.8431st of 479 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.06272nd of 479 | 48.41140th of 479 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.35268th of 577 | 48.48143rd of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 2 |
| Matches, 12 months | 61 | 33 |
| Matches rated | 159 | 258 |
Serve and return
| Krumich | Mpetshi Perricard | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 65.8% | 70.6% |
| Return pts won | 29.4% | 34.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 84.3% | 90.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMpetshi Perricard 65%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMpetshi Perricard 72%set by set, before calibration; published 68% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeMpetshi Perricard 23.3, Krumich 23.9small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchKrumich from claygames projection only, not the win chance
- Days since last event Not in the modelMpetshi Perricard 7, Krumich 29counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 55.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 64.6%
Decimal odds 1.44 / 2.63, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Tabata | Estevez | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 56.5 | 53.6381st of 403 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 30.1 | 34.4182nd of 403 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 43.30 | 43.99338th of 403 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 41.88525th of 577 | 43.51455th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 2 | 1 |
| Matches, 12 months | 12 | 37 |
| Matches rated | 16 | 46 |
Serve and return
| Tabata | Estevez | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 58.4% | 59.8% |
| Return pts won | 40.2% | 41.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 70.1% | 73.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setEstevez 55%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setEstevez 57%set by set, before calibration; published 56% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelEstevez 8, Tabata 141counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 74.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 71.4%
Decimal odds 3.25 / 1.30, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Royer | Gray | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 63.0126th of 479 | 60.1 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.2172nd of 479 | 31.2 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.58137th of 479 | 45.61 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.39149th of 577 | 45.73 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 55 | – |
| Matches rated | 263 | 98 |
Serve and return
| Royer | Gray | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 67.7% | 61.3% |
| Return pts won | 38.7% | 32.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 87.1% | 76.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setRoyer 70%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setRoyer 79%set by set, before calibration; published 74% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeGray 28.4, Royer 25.4small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchGray from grassgames projection only, not the win chance
- Days since last event Not in the modelGray 50, Royer 8counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 82.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 68.8%
Decimal odds 1.35 / 2.97, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Gombos | Svrcina | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 60.1248th of 479 | 58.6310th of 479 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.4278th of 479 | 40.26th of 479 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.26258th of 479 | 49.4395th of 479 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.20277th of 577 | 49.30105th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 38 | 46 |
| Matches rated | 773 | 309 |
Serve and return
| Gombos | Svrcina | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 53.9% | 62.4% |
| Return pts won | 37.6% | 46.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 59.6% | 78.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setSvrcina 77%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSvrcina 87%set by set, before calibration; published 82% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeSvrcina 24.1, Gombos 36.2small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchGombos from claygames projection only, not the win chance
- Days since last event Not in the modelSvrcina 22, Gombos 22counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 56.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 56.1%
Decimal odds 1.65 / 2.11, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Travaglia | Rodionov | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.1198th of 479 | 61.0202nd of 479 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.5153rd of 479 | 34.7137th of 479 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.79165th of 479 | 47.86162nd of 479 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.44185th of 577 | 47.80168th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 59 | 50 |
| Matches rated | 620 | 526 |
Serve and return
| Travaglia | Rodionov | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 60.6% | 62.1% |
| Return pts won | 37.9% | 39.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 74.9% | 77.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setRodionov 55%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setRodionov 57%set by set, before calibration; published 56% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeRodionov 27.5, Travaglia 34.9small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchTravaglia from claygames projection only, not the win chance
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 54.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 72.5%
Decimal odds 3.35 / 1.27, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Aboian | Magadan | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 56.3325th of 403 | 56.7310th of 403 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 33.5232nd of 403 | 31.7323rd of 403 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 44.87302nd of 403 | 44.20332nd of 403 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.38397th of 577 | 44.36401st of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 52 | 26 |
| Matches rated | 150 | 50 |
Serve and return
| Aboian | Magadan | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 60.9% | 59.8% |
| Return pts won | 40.2% | 39.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 75.3% | 73.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setAboian 54%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setAboian 56%set by set, before calibration; published 54% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -1.5
- First line
- -0.5
- Latest
- -0.5
Gea -0.5 at -108
- Model
- 61.5%
- First line
- 53.2%
- Latest
- 53.0%
Moneyline Struff J. +103 / Gea A. -125 (vig removed) · opened 53.2%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 53.2%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sun 7:30 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 7:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Gea | Struff | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 63.898th of 479 | 67.034th of 479 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 38.221st of 479 | 34.8129th of 479 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.9944th of 479 | 50.8746th of 479 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 50.4656th of 577 | 50.6752nd of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 57 | 57 |
| Matches rated | 164 | 848 |
Serve and return
| Gea | Struff | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 65.5% | 62.7% |
| Return pts won | 37.3% | 34.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 83.9% | 78.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setGea 60%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setGea 64%set by set, before calibration; published 61% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeStruff 36.5, Gea 21.8small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelStruff 3, Gea 21counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 97.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 91.4%
Decimal odds 1.02 / 10.88, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Bruna | Torres | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 50.0 | 55.1357th of 403 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 23.3 | 36.772nd of 403 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 36.67 | 45.93247th of 403 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 36.31 | 45.49319th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 0 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 3 | 56 |
| Matches rated | 16 | 267 |
Serve and return
| Bruna | Torres | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 49.6% | 68.1% |
| Return pts won | 31.9% | 50.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 49.0% | 87.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setTorres 95%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setTorres 99%set by set, before calibration; published 98% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelTorres 15, Bruna 253counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 55.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 60.4%
Decimal odds 2.35 / 1.54, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Budkov Kjaer | Mochizuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.0203rd of 479 | 57.3375th of 479 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.9184th of 479 | 36.953rd of 479 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.45186th of 479 | 47.12207th of 479 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.27199th of 577 | 47.37190th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 51 | 42 |
| Matches rated | 133 | 346 |
Serve and return
| Budkov Kjaer | Mochizuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.0% | 59.7% |
| Return pts won | 40.3% | 39.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 75.6% | 73.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setBudkov Kjaer 54%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBudkov Kjaer 56%set by set, before calibration; published 55% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeMochizuki 23.4, Budkov Kjaer 20.2small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchBudkov Kjaer from claygames projection only, not the win chance
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 71.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 77.3%
Decimal odds 1.20 / 4.08, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Monzon | Agamenone | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 52.2394th of 403 | 55.4 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 31.8311th of 403 | 35.2 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 42.01382nd of 403 | 45.29 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 41.50537th of 577 | 44.85 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 10 | – |
| Matches rated | 94 | 321 |
Serve and return
| Monzon | Agamenone | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 53.2% | 58.6% |
| Return pts won | 41.4% | 46.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 58.1% | 70.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setAgamenone 68%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setAgamenone 76%set by set, before calibration; published 72% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelAgamenone 15, Monzon 120counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 54.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 59.3%
Decimal odds 2.26 / 1.55, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Forejtek | Coppejans | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 60.6 | 58.8296th of 479 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.0 | 35.1119th of 479 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.80 | 46.96213th of 479 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.44 | 47.02221st of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | – | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | – | 55 |
| Matches rated | 253 | 672 |
Serve and return
| Forejtek | Coppejans | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.4% | 60.4% |
| Return pts won | 39.6% | 38.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 76.4% | 74.5% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setForejtek 53%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setForejtek 55%set by set, before calibration; published 54% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeCoppejans 32.7, Forejtek 25.7small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelCoppejans 22, Forejtek 2counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 66.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 69.2%
Decimal odds 3.04 / 1.35, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Midon | Andrade Da Silva | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 57.8264th of 403 | 60.5 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 37.160th of 403 | 31.0 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 47.43171st of 403 | 45.76 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.83235th of 577 | 45.36 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 61 | 8 |
| Matches rated | 156 | 17 |
Serve and return
| Midon | Andrade Da Silva | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 63.8% | 59.7% |
| Return pts won | 40.3% | 36.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 80.9% | 72.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMidon 64%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMidon 70%set by set, before calibration; published 66% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelAndrade Da Silva 36, Midon 8counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 80.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 87.9%
Decimal odds 7.68 / 1.06, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Chidekh | Santamarta Roig | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.6179th of 479 | 57.8 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 37.337th of 479 | 33.2 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.4793rd of 479 | 45.50 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.01117th of 577 | 46.09284th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 62 | 14 |
| Matches rated | 177 | 29 |
Serve and return
| Chidekh | Santamarta Roig | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 64.3% | 56.1% |
| Return pts won | 43.9% | 35.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 81.9% | 65.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setChidekh 76%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setChidekh 85%set by set, before calibration; published 81% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelSantamarta Roig 113, Chidekh 11counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- -3.0
- Latest
- -3.0
Shelton -3.0 at -103
- Model
- 70.2%
- First line
- 72.5%
- Latest
- 72.5%
Moneyline Shelton B. -317 / Norrie C. +247 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · 7:30 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 7:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Norrie | Shelton | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 64.971st of 479 | 71.25th of 479 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 37.532nd of 479 | 35.4103rd of 479 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 51.2141st of 479 | 53.2714th of 479 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 51.0043rd of 577 | 52.9418th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 49 | 60 |
| Matches rated | 574 | 291 |
Serve and return
| Norrie | Shelton | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 64.4% | 69.8% |
| Return pts won | 30.2% | 35.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 82.0% | 89.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setShelton 67%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setShelton 74%set by set, before calibration; published 70% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeShelton 24.1, Norrie 31.2small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 69.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 66.6%
Decimal odds 2.75 / 1.38, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Dietrich | Giron | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 65.362nd of 479 | 63.5106th of 479 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 35.599th of 479 | 34.2167th of 479 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.3762nd of 479 | 48.87118th of 479 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 50.2365th of 577 | 48.91121st of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 10 | 2 |
| Matches, 12 months | 24 | 44 |
| Matches rated | 43 | 562 |
Serve and return
| Dietrich | Giron | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 67.6% | 62.6% |
| Return pts won | 37.4% | 32.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 86.9% | 78.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setDietrich 66%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setDietrich 73%set by set, before calibration; published 69% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeGiron 33.3, Dietrich 22.1small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchDietrich from claygames projection only, not the win chance
- Days since last event Not in the modelGiron 14, Dietrich 8counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -0.5
- First line
- -2.5
- Latest
- -2.5
Jodar -2.5 at -113
- Model
- 54.1%
- First line
- 61.2%
- Latest
- 61.2%
Moneyline Ruud C. +146 / Jodar R. -179 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · 7:30 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 7:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Jodar | Ruud | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 64.973rd of 479 | 68.620th of 479 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 40.85th of 479 | 37.530th of 479 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 52.8618th of 479 | 53.0517th of 479 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 53.0316th of 577 | 53.5613th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 72 | 44 |
| Matches rated | 121 | 572 |
Serve and return
| Jodar | Ruud | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 64.2% | 63.2% |
| Return pts won | 36.8% | 35.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 81.6% | 79.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setJodar 53%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setJodar 55%set by set, before calibration; published 54% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeRuud 27.9, Jodar 20.1small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 58.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 54.0%
Decimal odds 1.71 / 2.01, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Svajda | Rehberg | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 58.0340th of 479 | 61.2 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.7188th of 479 | 33.0 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 45.86279th of 479 | 47.09 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.61316th of 577 | 47.12 |
| Wins, last 10 | 2 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 15 | – |
| Matches rated | 58 | 177 |
Serve and return
| Svajda | Rehberg | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.8% | 63.8% |
| Return pts won | 36.2% | 38.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 77.2% | 80.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setRehberg 57%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setRehberg 60%set by set, before calibration; published 58% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeRehberg 23.1, Svajda 20.5small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchRehberg from claygames projection only, not the win chance
- Days since last event Not in the modelRehberg 8, Svajda 15counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 62.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 58.0%
Decimal odds 1.59 / 2.20, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Pucinelli De Almeida | Diaz Acosta | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 60.2177th of 403 | 63.089th of 403 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 38.038th of 403 | 38.235th of 403 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 49.1096th of 403 | 50.6051st of 403 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.56138th of 577 | 49.9577th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 49 | 72 |
| Matches rated | 283 | 317 |
Serve and return
| Pucinelli De Almeida | Diaz Acosta | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 58.6% | 61.5% |
| Return pts won | 38.5% | 41.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 70.5% | 76.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setDiaz Acosta 60%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setDiaz Acosta 65%set by set, before calibration; published 62% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeDiaz Acosta 25.9, Pucinelli De Almeida 25.6small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchDiaz Acosta from hardgames projection only, not the win chance
- Days since last event Not in the modelDiaz Acosta 13, Pucinelli De Almeida 15counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 70.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 70.4%
Decimal odds 3.11 / 1.31, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Comesana | Cecchinato | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 62.991st of 403 | 61.3137th of 403 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 36.289th of 403 | 34.2198th of 403 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 49.5780th of 403 | 47.74151st of 403 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.09111th of 577 | 47.27200th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 45 | 61 |
| Matches rated | 272 | 827 |
Serve and return
| Comesana | Cecchinato | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 65.2% | 60.0% |
| Return pts won | 40.0% | 34.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 83.2% | 73.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setComesana 67%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setComesana 74%set by set, before calibration; published 70% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeCecchinato 34.1, Comesana 26.1small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchComesana from hardgames projection only, not the win chance
- Days since last event Not in the modelCecchinato 15, Comesana 15counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 58.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 65.6%
Decimal odds 2.67 / 1.40, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Ugo Carabelli | Sanchez Izquierdo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 61.1146th of 403 | 59.0 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 36.676th of 403 | 36.8 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 48.87106th of 403 | 47.86 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.93163rd of 577 | 47.38 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 45 | – |
| Matches rated | 412 | 297 |
Serve and return
| Ugo Carabelli | Sanchez Izquierdo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 60.5% | 58.5% |
| Return pts won | 41.5% | 39.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 74.7% | 70.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setUgo Carabelli 57%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setUgo Carabelli 61%set by set, before calibration; published 59% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeSanchez Izquierdo 27.6, Ugo Carabelli 27.4small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchUgo Carabelli from hardgames projection only, not the win chance
- Days since last event Not in the modelSanchez Izquierdo 15, Ugo Carabelli 8counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 56.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 53.8%
Decimal odds 1.71 / 1.99, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Andrade | Wendelken | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 57.4370th of 479 | 58.5319th of 479 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 35.876th of 479 | 35.779th of 479 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.59241st of 479 | 47.13206th of 479 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.33270th of 577 | 46.83234th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 63 | 42 |
| Matches rated | 146 | 101 |
Serve and return
| Andrade | Wendelken | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 57.3% | 58.7% |
| Return pts won | 41.3% | 42.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 67.7% | 70.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setWendelken 55%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setWendelken 58%set by set, before calibration; published 56% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →