ATP Tennis predictions Mon, Nov 2
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every ATP match. Methodology →
12 tour-level matches on this slate · 95–62 since Oct 20 (model V4) →
30 Challenger matches · Challenger: 52–42 since Oct 27 (model V4) →
Games
Paris
#15
Hurkacz
#20
Musetti
Biggest factor: Return edge: Musetti breaks 14% vs 13% · Musetti +0.5 pts
#34
Bergs
#71
Buse
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Bergs holds 81% vs 75% · Buse +5.6 pts
#158
Hijikata
#69
Darderi
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Darderi holds 82% vs 78% · Darderi +4.6 pts
#42
Navone
#112
Van Assche
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Navone holds 74% vs 70% · Van Assche +3.7 pts
#18
Jodar
#47
Tabilo
Biggest factor: Return edge: Jodar breaks 24% vs 15% · Tabilo +9.0 pts
#115
Arnaldi
#44
Norrie
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Norrie holds 80% vs 74% · Norrie +6.0 pts
#96
Cerundolo
#14
Ruud
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Ruud holds 89% vs 77% · Ruud +12.0 pts
#79
Sonego
#78
Bellucci
Biggest factor: Return edge: Bellucci breaks 16% vs 15% · Bellucci +1.2 pts
#70
Machac
#128
Jacquet
Biggest factor: Return edge: Machac breaks 22% vs 18% · Jacquet +3.6 pts
#98
Droguet
#60
Molcan
#17
Khachanov
#39
Shapovalov
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Khachanov holds 84% vs 81% · Shapovalov +3.2 pts
#52
Van De Zandschulp
#36
Humbert
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Humbert holds 83% vs 79% · Humbert +4.4 pts
ATP Challenger 30 matches
Bratislava Challenger
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Houkes holds 76% vs 66% · Houkes +10.5 pts
#151
Mpetshi Perricard
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Mpetshi Perricard holds 95% vs 79% · Mpetshi Perricard +15.4 pts
#415
Vasa
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Vasa holds 74% vs 71% · Vasa +3.2 pts
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Forejtek holds 78% vs 66% · Forejtek +11.6 pts
Biggest factor: Return edge: Shevchenko breaks 19% vs 12% · Pavlovic +6.8 pts
#117
Basavareddy
Biggest factor: Return edge: Basavareddy breaks 22% vs 10% · Basavareddy +11.9 pts
#173
Piros
#155
Gojo
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Gojo holds 84% vs 81% · Gojo +3.5 pts
Charlottesville Challenger
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Trotter holds 86% vs 78% · Trotter +8.5 pts
Biggest factor: Return edge: Boulais breaks 37% vs 17% · Heredia +19.6 pts
#249
Krueger
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Krueger holds 81% vs 71% · Krueger +9.4 pts
#211
Cassone
#270
Mejia
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Cassone holds 85% vs 80% · Mejia +5.2 pts
Biggest factor: Return edge: Smith breaks 32% vs 17% · Smith +14.7 pts
Costa do Sauipe Challenger
#265
Galan
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Galan holds 82% vs 70% · Galan +12.1 pts
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Rodriguez Taverna holds 80% vs 75% · Rodriguez Taverna +5.6 pts
#209
Moller
#273
Kolar
Biggest factor: Return edge: Moller breaks 40% vs 33% · Kolar +7.4 pts
#127
Heide
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Heide holds 78% vs 70% · Heide +7.8 pts
#214
Misolic
Biggest factor: Return edge: Misolic breaks 26% vs 15% · Alves +11.4 pts
Taipei Challenger
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Erel holds 82% vs 72% · Erel +10.6 pts
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Shimizu holds 81% vs 67% · Zhu +14.1 pts
#184
Watanuki
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Watanuki holds 79% vs 67% · Watanuki +12.1 pts
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Samrej holds 79% vs 75% · Samrej +4.1 pts
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Holmgren holds 83% vs 78% · Michalski +5.1 pts
#303
Schwaerzler
Biggest factor: Return edge: Kumstat breaks 16% vs 14% · Schwaerzler +2.0 pts
Villa Maria Challenger
Biggest factor: Return edge: De La Fuente breaks 32% vs 30% · De La Fuente +1.6 pts
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Farjat holds 69% vs 66% · Farjat +2.8 pts
Biggest factor: Return edge: Ribero breaks 35% vs 11% · Ribero +24.5 pts
Biggest factor: Return edge: Ratti breaks 25% vs 22% · Ratti +2.9 pts
Biggest factor: Return edge: Villanueva breaks 35% vs 24% · Zarate +10.7 pts
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 71.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 71.1%
Decimal odds 1.31 / 3.22, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Imamura | Erel | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 55.7415th of 480 | 61.1205th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.2284th of 480 | 32.2287th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 43.93382nd of 480 | 46.66235th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 43.67435th of 577 | 46.15280th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 2 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 44 | 24 |
| Matches rated | 99 | 84 |
Serve and return
| Imamura | Erel | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 59.1% | 64.5% |
| Return pts won | 35.5% | 40.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 71.6% | 82.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setErel 68%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setErel 76%set by set, before calibration; published 71% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelErel 34, Imamura 7counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 76.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 67.8%
Decimal odds 2.89 / 1.37, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Shimizu | Zhu | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 58.8 | 54.2444th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.6 | 30.2385th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 45.70 | 42.19448th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.49 | 41.89524th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | – | 1 |
| Matches, 12 months | – | 20 |
| Matches rated | 248 | 172 |
Serve and return
| Shimizu | Zhu | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 64.1% | 57.1% |
| Return pts won | 42.9% | 35.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 81.4% | 67.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setShimizu 72%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setShimizu 81%set by set, before calibration; published 77% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelZhu 34, Shimizu 7counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 72.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 78.7%
Decimal odds 1.18 / 4.37, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Leong | Watanuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 56.0406th of 480 | 60.8218th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.3221st of 480 | 34.6148th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 44.67340th of 480 | 47.71167th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.29392nd of 577 | 47.44184th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 30 | 25 |
| Matches rated | 58 | 366 |
Serve and return
| Leong | Watanuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 57.0% | 62.8% |
| Return pts won | 37.2% | 43.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 67.0% | 79.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setWatanuki 69%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setWatanuki 77%set by set, before calibration; published 73% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelWatanuki 21, Leong 49counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 58.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 46.9%
Decimal odds 1.98 / 1.75, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Jasika | Samrej | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 56.1401st of 480 | 59.1287th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.2286th of 480 | 30.6370th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 44.14370th of 480 | 44.86330th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 43.78428th of 577 | 44.69368th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 28 | 29 |
| Matches rated | 260 | 97 |
Serve and return
| Jasika | Samrej | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 60.6% | 62.7% |
| Return pts won | 37.3% | 39.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 74.8% | 78.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setSamrej 57%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSamrej 61%set by set, before calibration; published 59% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeSamrej 25.8, Jasika 29.5small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 61.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 59.6%
Decimal odds 2.30 / 1.56, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Holmgren | Michalski | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 64.196th of 480 | 56.5 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 29.9396th of 480 | 34.3 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.97213th of 480 | 45.40 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.82228th of 577 | 45.21 |
| Wins, last 10 | 2 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 51 | – |
| Matches rated | 193 | 194 |
Serve and return
| Holmgren | Michalski | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 65.1% | 62.3% |
| Return pts won | 37.7% | 34.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 83.1% | 78.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setHolmgren 59%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setHolmgren 64%set by set, before calibration; published 61% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelMichalski 49, Holmgren 7counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 55.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 49.1%
Decimal odds 1.82 / 1.89, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Kumstat | Schwaerzler | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.6185th of 480 | 61.3198th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.1291st of 480 | 30.0392nd of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.88219th of 480 | 45.66290th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.53140th of 577 | 45.70303rd of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 29 | 55 |
| Matches rated | 41 | 135 |
Serve and return
| Kumstat | Schwaerzler | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 67.2% | 65.9% |
| Return pts won | 34.1% | 32.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 86.4% | 84.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setKumstat 54%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setKumstat 56%set by set, before calibration; published 55% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelSchwaerzler 28, Kumstat 7counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -0.2
- First line
- +0.5
- Latest
- +0.5
Musetti +0.5 at -113
- Model
- 51.4%
- First line
- 46.7%
- Latest
- 48.6%
Moneyline Musetti L. -104 / Hurkacz H. -117 (vig removed) · opened 46.7%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 46.7%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sat 8:33 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 7:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Hurkacz | Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 70.57th of 480 | 67.332nd of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 35.689th of 480 | 38.421st of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 53.0915th of 480 | 52.8117th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 53.2115th of 577 | 52.7320th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 52 | 43 |
| Matches rated | 545 | 417 |
Serve and return
| Hurkacz | Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 67.2% | 67.6% |
| Return pts won | 32.4% | 32.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 86.4% | 86.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setMusetti 51%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMusetti 52%set by set, before calibration; published 51% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeMusetti 24.7, Hurkacz 29.7small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- -3.5
- Latest
- -3.5
Bergs -3.5 at -109
- Model
- 61.9%
- First line
- 69.9%
- Latest
- 69.9%
Moneyline Buse I. +217 / Bergs Z. -274 (vig removed)
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 69.9%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sat 8:33 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 7:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Bergs | Buse | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 65.855th of 480 | 61.7183rd of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 37.143rd of 480 | 37.434th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 51.4735th of 480 | 49.5691st of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 51.5934th of 577 | 49.9771st of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 50 | 60 |
| Matches rated | 379 | 197 |
Serve and return
| Bergs | Buse | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.8% | 60.9% |
| Return pts won | 39.1% | 36.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 81.0% | 75.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setBergs 60%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBergs 65%set by set, before calibration; published 62% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeBuse 22.6, Bergs 27.4small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 50.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 68.9%
Decimal odds 2.97 / 1.34, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Visker | Krajci | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 62.3152nd of 480 | 57.1 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 24.8474th of 480 | 30.0 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 43.57401st of 480 | 43.56 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 43.12469th of 577 | 43.04 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 30 | 4 |
| Matches rated | 51 | 14 |
Serve and return
| Visker | Krajci | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 67.9% | 67.9% |
| Return pts won | 32.1% | 32.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 87.4% | 87.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setVisker 50%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setVisker 50%set by set, before calibration; published 50% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelKrajci 154, Visker 21counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -1.5
- First line
- +0.5
- Latest
- +0.5
Darderi +0.5 at -110
- Model
- 60.2%
- First line
- 50.0%
- Latest
- 50.0%
Moneyline Darderi L. -110 / Hijikata R. -110 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / BetRivers · 7:30 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / BetRivers · as of 7:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Hijikata | Darderi | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.3201st of 480 | 63.7106th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 35.2117th of 480 | 35.1127th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.22154th of 480 | 49.4097th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.16158th of 577 | 50.0169th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 69 | 61 |
| Matches rated | 337 | 347 |
Serve and return
| Hijikata | Darderi | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.0% | 64.5% |
| Return pts won | 35.5% | 38.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 77.5% | 82.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setDarderi 58%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setDarderi 62%set by set, before calibration; published 60% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeDarderi 24.7, Hijikata 25.7small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -1.5
- First line
- +2.5
- Latest
- +2.5
Navone +2.5 at -110
- Model
- 57.3%
- First line
- 39.9%
- Latest
- 39.9%
Moneyline Van Assche L. -170 / Navone M. +139 (vig removed)
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 39.9%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sat 8:33 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 7:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Navone | Van Assche | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 62.2161st of 480 | 61.0210th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 38.913th of 480 | 37.728th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.5257th of 480 | 49.3598th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 51.1842nd of 577 | 49.21112th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 58 | 71 |
| Matches rated | 276 | 337 |
Serve and return
| Navone | Van Assche | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 60.2% | 58.5% |
| Return pts won | 41.5% | 39.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 74.0% | 70.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setNavone 56%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setNavone 59%set by set, before calibration; published 57% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeVan Assche 22.5, Navone 25.7small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- -4.0
- Latest
- -4.5
Jodar -4.5 at +109 · opened -4.0
- Model
- 69.8%
- First line
- 77.9%
- Latest
- 79.4%
Moneyline Tabilo A. +363 / Jodar R. -495 (vig removed) · opened 77.9%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 77.9%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sat 8:33 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 7:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Jodar | Tabilo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 65.073rd of 480 | 66.442nd of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 40.36th of 480 | 35.597th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 52.6820th of 480 | 50.9745th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 52.8718th of 577 | 50.9447th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 71 | 67 |
| Matches rated | 120 | 448 |
Serve and return
| Jodar | Tabilo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 66.3% | 61.2% |
| Return pts won | 38.8% | 33.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 85.0% | 76.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setJodar 66%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setJodar 74%set by set, before calibration; published 70% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeTabilo 29.4, Jodar 20.1small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 69.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 64.2%
Decimal odds 1.43 / 2.56, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Vrbensky | Houkes | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 54.1 | 57.4 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 31.6 | 33.2 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 42.86 | 45.29 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 42.69 | 46.32266th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | – | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | – | 32 |
| Matches rated | 206 | 133 |
Serve and return
| Vrbensky | Houkes | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 56.5% | 61.4% |
| Return pts won | 38.6% | 43.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 65.9% | 76.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setHoukes 66%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setHoukes 74%set by set, before calibration; published 70% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelHoukes 14, Vrbensky 21counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 87.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 77.7%
Decimal odds 1.18 / 4.10, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Sorger | Mpetshi Perricard | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 54.5 | 69.214th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 30.9 | 27.3459th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 42.71 | 48.25151st of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 43.29462nd of 577 | 48.33151st of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 2 | 2 |
| Matches, 12 months | 12 | 33 |
| Matches rated | 26 | 251 |
Serve and return
| Sorger | Mpetshi Perricard | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.8% | 74.5% |
| Return pts won | 25.5% | 37.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 79.1% | 94.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMpetshi Perricard 82%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMpetshi Perricard 92%set by set, before calibration; published 87% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelMpetshi Perricard 6, Sorger 56counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- -3.5
- Latest
- -3.5
Norrie -3.5 at +101
- Model
- 62.4%
- First line
- 67.4%
- Latest
- 67.4%
Moneyline Norrie C. -241 / Arnaldi M. +192 (vig removed)
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 67.4%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sat 8:33 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 7:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Arnaldi | Norrie | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 62.0171st of 480 | 64.976th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 36.662nd of 480 | 37.729th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.28103rd of 480 | 51.3040th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.12115th of 577 | 51.0944th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 36 | 48 |
| Matches rated | 304 | 573 |
Serve and return
| Arnaldi | Norrie | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 60.1% | 63.1% |
| Return pts won | 36.9% | 39.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 73.8% | 79.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setNorrie 60%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setNorrie 65%set by set, before calibration; published 62% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeNorrie 31.2, Arnaldi 25.7small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -3.5
- First line
- -3.5
- Latest
- -3.5
Ruud -3.5 at -125
- Model
- 77.3%
- First line
- 71.8%
- Latest
- 71.8%
Moneyline Ruud C. -304 / Cerundolo J. +238 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / BetRivers · 7:30 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / BetRivers · as of 7:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Cerundolo | Ruud | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 63.2122nd of 480 | 68.225th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.3163rd of 480 | 37.436th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.78123rd of 480 | 52.7818th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.4496th of 577 | 53.3214th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 62 | 43 |
| Matches rated | 399 | 571 |
Serve and return
| Cerundolo | Ruud | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.8% | 69.3% |
| Return pts won | 30.7% | 38.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 77.2% | 89.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setRuud 73%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setRuud 82%set by set, before calibration; published 77% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeRuud 27.9, Cerundolo 25.0small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 56.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 52.9%
Decimal odds 1.71 / 1.92, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Ursu | Vasa | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 52.6470th of 480 | 58.5315th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.9182nd of 480 | 29.6406th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 43.26416th of 480 | 44.01378th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 42.98476th of 577 | 43.97415th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 20 | 31 |
| Matches rated | 111 | 55 |
Serve and return
| Ursu | Vasa | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 58.6% | 60.1% |
| Return pts won | 39.9% | 41.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 70.6% | 73.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setVasa 55%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setVasa 58%set by set, before calibration; published 56% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelVasa 105, Ursu 42counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 53.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 57.5%
Decimal odds 1.61 / 2.18, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Tabata | De La Fuente | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 55.2 | 50.8394th of 403 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 28.9 | 34.0212th of 403 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 42.05 | 42.42379th of 403 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 40.48552nd of 577 | 41.93523rd of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 2 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 12 | 23 |
| Matches rated | 12 | 55 |
Serve and return
| Tabata | De La Fuente | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 57.4% | 58.2% |
| Return pts won | 41.8% | 42.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 68.0% | 69.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setDe La Fuente 53%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setDe La Fuente 54%set by set, before calibration; published 53% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelDe La Fuente 140, Tabata 140counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 55.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 45.7%
Decimal odds 2.01 / 1.69, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Aguilar Cardozo | Farjat | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 49.1 | 54.7 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 33.2 | 28.8 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 41.14 | 41.75 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 40.72 | 41.23 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 2 |
| Matches, 12 months | 4 | 6 |
| Matches rated | 11 | 74 |
Serve and return
| Aguilar Cardozo | Farjat | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 56.5% | 57.8% |
| Return pts won | 42.2% | 43.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 65.9% | 68.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setFarjat 54%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setFarjat 56%set by set, before calibration; published 55% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelFarjat 42, Aguilar Cardozo 350counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 71.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 61.5%
Decimal odds 1.50 / 2.40, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Donald | Forejtek | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 54.0 | 60.8 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.4 | 32.9 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 44.21 | 46.83 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 43.92420th of 577 | 46.65 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 18 | – |
| Matches rated | 27 | 249 |
Serve and return
| Donald | Forejtek | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 56.7% | 62.2% |
| Return pts won | 37.8% | 43.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 66.3% | 78.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setForejtek 68%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setForejtek 76%set by set, before calibration; published 72% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelForejtek 14, Donald 14counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -0.4
- First line
- -1.5
- Latest
- -1.5
Bellucci -1.5 at -117
- Model
- 53.1%
- First line
- 57.3%
- Latest
- 57.3%
Moneyline Bellucci M. -151 / Sonego L. +123 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / BetRivers · 7:30 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / BetRivers · as of 7:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Sonego | Bellucci | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 66.052nd of 480 | 65.074th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.4160th of 480 | 35.1125th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.2068th of 480 | 50.0573rd of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.8779th of 577 | 49.8878th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 35 | 63 |
| Matches rated | 583 | 299 |
Serve and return
| Sonego | Bellucci | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 65.7% | 66.5% |
| Return pts won | 33.5% | 34.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 84.1% | 85.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setBellucci 53%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBellucci 54%set by set, before calibration; published 53% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeBellucci 25.4, Sonego 31.5small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelBellucci 11, Sonego 14counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -1.5
- First line
- -2.5
- Latest
- -2.5
Machac -2.5 at -103
- Model
- 58.0%
- First line
- 59.1%
- Latest
- 59.1%
Moneyline Jacquet K. +133 / Machac T. -163 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / BetRivers · 7:30 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / BetRivers · as of 7:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Machac | Jacquet | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 63.3117th of 480 | 63.1125th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 36.760th of 480 | 34.8140th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.0176th of 480 | 48.97112th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.9870th of 577 | 48.83128th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 35 | 45 |
| Matches rated | 352 | 244 |
Serve and return
| Machac | Jacquet | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 64.3% | 62.3% |
| Return pts won | 37.7% | 35.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 81.7% | 78.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setMachac 57%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMachac 60%set by set, before calibration; published 58% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeJacquet 25.5, Machac 26.1small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 91.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 62.7%
Decimal odds 1.45 / 2.44, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Bruna | Ribero | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 47.7 | 54.1363rd of 403 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 20.9 | 27.9397th of 403 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 34.32 | 40.98393rd of 403 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 33.98 | 40.45555th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 0 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 3 | 28 |
| Matches rated | 13 | 54 |
Serve and return
| Bruna | Ribero | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 56.1% | 69.4% |
| Return pts won | 30.6% | 43.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 64.9% | 89.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setRibero 87%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setRibero 95%set by set, before calibration; published 92% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelRibero 14, Bruna 252counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 66.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 61.9%
Decimal odds 2.44 / 1.50, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Shevchenko | Pavlovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 62.8138th of 480 | 62.0166th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.8193rd of 480 | 30.3380th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.28148th of 480 | 46.15266th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.25153rd of 577 | 45.63310th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 52 | 43 |
| Matches rated | 330 | 111 |
Serve and return
| Shevchenko | Pavlovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 68.2% | 63.9% |
| Return pts won | 36.1% | 31.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 87.8% | 81.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setShevchenko 64%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setShevchenko 70%set by set, before calibration; published 67% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgePavlovic 26.6, Shevchenko 25.9small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchPavlovic from claygames projection only, not the win chance
- Days since last event Not in the modelPavlovic 21, Shevchenko 21counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 77.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 71.3%
Decimal odds 1.31 / 3.26, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Karol | Basavareddy | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 62.4149th of 480 | 62.8135th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 29.6407th of 480 | 35.785th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 45.97275th of 480 | 49.28102nd of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.27334th of 577 | 49.09117th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 23 | 41 |
| Matches rated | 105 | 161 |
Serve and return
| Karol | Basavareddy | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.2% | 69.8% |
| Return pts won | 30.2% | 37.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 78.0% | 89.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setBasavareddy 73%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBasavareddy 82%set by set, before calibration; published 78% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelBasavareddy 7, Karol 21counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 50.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 34.4%
Decimal odds 1.40 / 2.67, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Mitsui | Milavsky | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 59.1 | 60.2244th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.7 | 31.6320th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 45.92 | 45.88279th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.61 | 45.67305th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 9 | 36 |
| Matches rated | 11 | 55 |
Serve and return
| Mitsui | Milavsky | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.1% | 63.0% |
| Return pts won | 37.0% | 36.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 79.7% | 79.5% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMitsui 50%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMitsui 50%set by set, before calibration; published 50% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelMilavsky 7, Mitsui 273counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 69.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 50.8%
Decimal odds 1.79 / 1.85, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Baris | Trotter | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 55.4421st of 480 | 61.9175th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 30.3376th of 480 | 28.9422nd of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 42.86427th of 480 | 45.39300th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 42.53499th of 577 | 45.24336th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 10 | 27 |
| Matches rated | 35 | 184 |
Serve and return
| Baris | Trotter | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.0% | 67.0% |
| Return pts won | 33.0% | 38.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 77.6% | 86.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setTrotter 66%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setTrotter 73%set by set, before calibration; published 69% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -0.1
- First line
- -0.5
- Latest
- -0.5
Molcan -0.5 at -121
- Model
- 50.6%
- First line
- 53.2%
- Latest
- 53.2%
Moneyline Molcan A. -126 / Droguet T. +104 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / BetRivers · 7:30 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / BetRivers · as of 7:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Droguet | Molcan | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 64.195th of 480 | 62.9133rd of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.8143rd of 480 | 36.759th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.4395th of 480 | 49.8283rd of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.3798th of 577 | 50.3960th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 68 | 43 |
| Matches rated | 279 | 376 |
Serve and return
| Droguet | Molcan | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.2% | 63.4% |
| Return pts won | 36.6% | 36.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 79.9% | 80.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setMolcan 51%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMolcan 51%set by set, before calibration; published 51% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeMolcan 28.9, Droguet 25.4small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelMolcan 26, Droguet 13counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 58.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 56.1%
Decimal odds 1.65 / 2.11, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Piros | Gojo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 60.0249th of 480 | 65.075th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.5152nd of 480 | 31.9301st of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.26198th of 480 | 48.45140th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.74173rd of 577 | 48.23155th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 58 | 43 |
| Matches rated | 378 | 376 |
Serve and return
| Piros | Gojo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.6% | 65.7% |
| Return pts won | 34.3% | 36.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 80.6% | 84.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setGojo 57%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setGojo 60%set by set, before calibration; published 58% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeGojo 28.7, Piros 27.1small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 84.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 75.3%
Decimal odds 3.68 / 1.21, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Boulais | Heredia | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 56.9376th of 480 | 53.2 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.4218th of 480 | 27.5 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 45.15316th of 480 | 40.37 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.86358th of 577 | 40.91541st of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 29 | 20 |
| Matches rated | 99 | 27 |
Serve and return
| Boulais | Heredia | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 65.0% | 55.4% |
| Return pts won | 44.6% | 35.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 82.9% | 63.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setBoulais 79%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBoulais 89%set by set, before calibration; published 84% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelHeredia 14, Boulais 42counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 68.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 50.0%
Decimal odds 1.03 / 1.03, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Fenty | Krueger | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 56.7385th of 480 | 60.5230th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 31.2350th of 480 | 33.2230th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 43.93381st of 480 | 46.85221st of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 43.58444th of 577 | 46.53249th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 21 | 41 |
| Matches rated | 61 | 618 |
Serve and return
| Fenty | Krueger | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 59.0% | 63.8% |
| Return pts won | 36.2% | 41.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 71.5% | 80.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setKrueger 66%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setKrueger 73%set by set, before calibration; published 69% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelKrueger 7, Fenty 35counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -1.5
- First line
- -2.0
- Latest
- -2.0
Khachanov -2.0 at -107
- Model
- 57.7%
- First line
- 59.6%
- Latest
- 59.6%
Moneyline Shapovalov D. +136 / Khachanov K. -167 (vig removed)
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 59.6%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sat 8:33 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 7:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Khachanov | Shapovalov | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 69.213th of 480 | 65.365th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 36.951st of 480 | 38.420th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 53.0616th of 480 | 51.8332nd of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 52.9617th of 577 | 51.3139th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 49 | 40 |
| Matches rated | 653 | 482 |
Serve and return
| Khachanov | Shapovalov | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 65.8% | 63.9% |
| Return pts won | 36.1% | 34.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 84.3% | 81.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setKhachanov 56%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setKhachanov 59%set by set, before calibration; published 58% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeShapovalov 27.6, Khachanov 30.5small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 73.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 71.3%
Decimal odds 1.15 / 2.86, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Schiessl | Galan | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 55.4334th of 403 | 59.8199th of 403 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 31.2343rd of 403 | 33.5240th of 403 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 43.29358th of 403 | 46.64207th of 403 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 42.76491st of 577 | 46.33265th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 27 | 48 |
| Matches rated | 52 | 627 |
Serve and return
| Schiessl | Galan | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 58.1% | 64.2% |
| Return pts won | 35.8% | 41.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 69.5% | 81.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setGalan 70%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setGalan 78%set by set, before calibration; published 74% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelGalan 7, Schiessl 28counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 61.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 82.2%
Decimal odds 1.11 / 5.13, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Leite | Rodriguez Taverna | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 54.1362nd of 403 | 57.3 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 30.0370th of 403 | 29.9 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 42.07381st of 403 | 43.56 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 41.53534th of 577 | 43.05 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 19 | – |
| Matches rated | 196 | 275 |
Serve and return
| Leite | Rodriguez Taverna | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 60.5% | 63.4% |
| Return pts won | 36.6% | 39.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 74.6% | 80.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setRodriguez Taverna 60%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setRodriguez Taverna 64%set by set, before calibration; published 62% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelRodriguez Taverna 161, Leite 35counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 56.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 37.6%
Decimal odds 2.44 / 1.47, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Zeitune | Ratti | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 57.3269th of 403 | 54.7349th of 403 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 28.5391st of 403 | 32.6280th of 403 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 42.91369th of 403 | 43.65348th of 403 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 42.38505th of 577 | 43.34460th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 2 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 27 | 31 |
| Matches rated | 30 | 40 |
Serve and return
| Zeitune | Ratti | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 60.9% | 62.4% |
| Return pts won | 37.6% | 39.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 75.5% | 78.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setRatti 55%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setRatti 58%set by set, before calibration; published 56% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelRatti 21, Zeitune 21counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -1.5
- First line
- -2.5
- Latest
- -2.0
Humbert -2.0 at -111 · opened -2.5
- Model
- 59.9%
- First line
- 59.5%
- Latest
- 59.5%
Moneyline Humbert U. -166 / Van De Zandschulp B. +135 (vig removed)
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 59.5%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sat 8:33 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 7:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Van De Zandschulp | Humbert | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 63.2123rd of 480 | 68.027th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 38.222nd of 480 | 35.5100th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.7152nd of 480 | 51.7134th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 50.6252nd of 577 | 51.4536th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 2 |
| Matches, 12 months | 54 | 51 |
| Matches rated | 421 | 484 |
Serve and return
| Van De Zandschulp | Humbert | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.6% | 65.1% |
| Return pts won | 34.9% | 37.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 78.7% | 83.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setHumbert 58%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setHumbert 62%set by set, before calibration; published 60% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeHumbert 28.4, Van De Zandschulp 31.1small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 62.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 54.1%
Decimal odds 2.00 / 1.70, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Cassone | Mejia | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 62.8137th of 480 | 59.6267th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.1292nd of 480 | 32.6264th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.44184th of 480 | 46.12267th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.10211th of 577 | 46.27270th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 45 | 53 |
| Matches rated | 155 | 332 |
Serve and return
| Cassone | Mejia | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 66.2% | 63.1% |
| Return pts won | 36.9% | 33.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 85.0% | 79.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setCassone 60%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setCassone 65%set by set, before calibration; published 62% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeMejia 26.7, Cassone 24.2small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchCassone from grassgames projection only, not the win chance
- Days since last event Not in the modelMejia 14, Cassone 14counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 63.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 71.3%
Decimal odds 3.23 / 1.30, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Moller | Kolar | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 55.9320th of 403 | 57.9250th of 403 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 39.615th of 403 | 35.6130th of 403 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 47.73155th of 403 | 46.76203rd of 403 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.14209th of 577 | 46.23273rd of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 52 | 64 |
| Matches rated | 170 | 570 |
Serve and return
| Moller | Kolar | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 57.2% | 54.0% |
| Return pts won | 46.0% | 42.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 67.4% | 59.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMoller 61%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMoller 66%set by set, before calibration; published 63% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeKolar 30.1, Moller 23.3small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelKolar 14, Moller 14counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 78.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 64.4%
Decimal odds 1.43 / 2.59, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Shick | Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 57.1369th of 480 | 60.1245th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 31.3341st of 480 | 35.1120th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 44.22366th of 480 | 47.63169th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 43.94418th of 577 | 47.26200th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 2 |
| Matches, 12 months | 32 | 41 |
| Matches rated | 37 | 112 |
Serve and return
| Shick | Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 57.5% | 65.0% |
| Return pts won | 35.0% | 42.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 68.2% | 82.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setSmith 74%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSmith 83%set by set, before calibration; published 78% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 65.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 71.5%
Decimal odds 1.29 / 3.24, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Justo | Heide | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 57.8251st of 403 | 63.190th of 403 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 37.747th of 403 | 35.7126th of 403 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 47.75153rd of 403 | 49.4385th of 403 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.29196th of 577 | 48.83127th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 77 | 62 |
| Matches rated | 151 | 203 |
Serve and return
| Justo | Heide | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 58.4% | 62.1% |
| Return pts won | 37.9% | 41.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 70.1% | 77.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setHeide 63%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setHeide 69%set by set, before calibration; published 65% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelHeide 14, Justo 21counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 69.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 51.9%
Decimal odds 1.92 / 1.78, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Villanueva | Zarate | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 56.6 | 54.5351st of 403 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 34.6 | 31.0348th of 403 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 45.62 | 42.73371st of 403 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.13 | 42.20511th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | – | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | – | 30 |
| Matches rated | 362 | 45 |
Serve and return
| Villanueva | Zarate | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 61.0% | 56.1% |
| Return pts won | 43.9% | 39.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 75.7% | 65.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setVillanueva 67%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setVillanueva 74%set by set, before calibration; published 70% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Head to head
| Misolic | Alves | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 59.5207th of 403 | 60.1 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 36.683rd of 403 | 29.9 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 48.05139th of 403 | 44.99 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.07214th of 577 | 44.31 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 12 | – |
| Matches rated | 240 | 183 |
Serve and return
| Misolic | Alves | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 66.2% | 60.0% |
| Return pts won | 40.0% | 33.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 84.9% | 73.5% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMisolic 70%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMisolic 78%set by set, before calibration; published 74% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeAlves 25.8, Misolic 25.2small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchMisolic from hardgames projection only, not the win chance
- Days since last event Not in the modelAlves 21, Misolic 14counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →