ATP Tennis predictions Sun, Nov 1
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every ATP match. Methodology →
9 tour-level matches on this slate · 91–57 since Oct 20 (model V4) →
18 Challenger matches · Challenger: 38–36 since Oct 27 (model V4) →
Games
Basel
#43
Vacherot
#12
Lehecka
Biggest factor: Return edge: Lehecka breaks 15% vs 8% · Lehecka +7.3 pts
Paris
#78
Bellucci
#57
Tirante
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Tirante holds 86% vs 85% · Tirante +0.8 pts
#171
Kopriva
#158
Hijikata
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Hijikata holds 77% vs 72% · Hijikata +4.8 pts
#82
Kecmanovic
#96
Cerundolo
Biggest factor: Return edge: Kecmanovic breaks 19% vs 17% · Cerundolo +2.6 pts
#49
Hanfmann
#76
Bonzi
#70
Machac
#119
Baez
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Machac holds 77% vs 73% · Baez +4.3 pts
#79
Sonego
#114
Vallejo
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Sonego holds 81% vs 79% · Vallejo +2.6 pts
#60
Molcan
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Borges holds 83% vs 77% · Borges +5.5 pts
Vienna
#2
Alcaraz
#11
De Minaur
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Alcaraz holds 83% vs 69% · De Minaur +14.0 pts
ATP Challenger 18 matches
Bratislava Challenger
#224
Brunold
Biggest factor: Return edge: Brunold breaks 32% vs 15% · Brunold +16.3 pts
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Visker holds 89% vs 76% · Zakaryia +12.4 pts
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Gengel holds 78% vs 68% · Vrbensky +9.3 pts
#151
Mpetshi Perricard
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Mpetshi Perricard holds 93% vs 81% · Mpetshi Perricard +11.7 pts
Biggest factor: Return edge: Cerny breaks 32% vs 28% · Cerny +4.6 pts
Biggest factor: Return edge: Forejtek breaks 21% vs 12% · Forejtek +9.0 pts
Brest Challenger
#84
Damm
#221
Kouame
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Damm holds 90% vs 83% · Kouame +6.9 pts
Costa do Sauipe Challenger
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Lalami Laaroussi holds 77% vs 76% · Lalami Laaroussi +0.8 pts
Zeballos
Biggest factor: Return edge: Miguel breaks 42% vs 14% · Zeballos +28.8 pts
Guayaquil Challenger
#100
Dellien
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Dellien holds 74% vs 55% · Aguilar Cardozo +18.5 pts
Ningbo Challenger
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Bar Biryukov holds 87% vs 85% · Bar Biryukov +1.6 pts
Taipei Challenger
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Imamura holds 73% vs 61% · Imamura +11.9 pts
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Santillan holds 81% vs 73% · Santillan +7.9 pts
Biggest factor: Return edge: Sultanov breaks 19% vs 13% · Langmo +5.7 pts
#184
Watanuki
Biggest factor: Return edge: Watanuki breaks 26% vs 9% · Watanuki +16.8 pts
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Samrej holds 85% vs 74% · Samrej +11.0 pts
Biggest factor: Return edge: Jasika breaks 21% vs 19% · Donski +2.0 pts
Villa Maria Challenger
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Farjat holds 82% vs 64% · Farjat +18.5 pts
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 71.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 39.5%
Decimal odds 2.34 / 1.53, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Staeheli | Imamura | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 51.2 | 55.7415th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 31.4 | 32.2284th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 41.30 | 43.93382nd of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 41.74528th of 577 | 43.67435th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 2 |
| Matches, 12 months | 11 | 44 |
| Matches rated | 14 | 99 |
Serve and return
| Staeheli | Imamura | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 54.6% | 59.9% |
| Return pts won | 40.1% | 45.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 61.3% | 73.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setImamura 68%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setImamura 76%set by set, before calibration; published 71% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelImamura 6, Staeheli 34counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 66.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 54.3%
Decimal odds 1.69 / 2.01, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Zhu | Santillan | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 54.2444th of 480 | 58.8 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 30.2385th of 480 | 30.1 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 42.19448th of 480 | 44.46 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 41.89524th of 577 | 44.17 |
| Wins, last 10 | 1 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 20 | – |
| Matches rated | 172 | 328 |
Serve and return
| Zhu | Santillan | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 59.7% | 63.8% |
| Return pts won | 36.2% | 40.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 72.9% | 80.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setSantillan 64%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSantillan 70%set by set, before calibration; published 66% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelSantillan 6, Zhu 33counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 63.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 61.5%
Decimal odds 2.41 / 1.51, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Sultanov | Langmo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 59.9255th of 480 | 59.0294th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 30.7365th of 480 | 28.1448th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 45.34304th of 480 | 43.54403rd of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.90356th of 577 | 43.43454th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 2 |
| Matches, 12 months | 14 | 39 |
| Matches rated | 148 | 184 |
Serve and return
| Sultanov | Langmo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 67.4% | 63.8% |
| Return pts won | 36.2% | 32.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 86.7% | 80.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setSultanov 62%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSultanov 67%set by set, before calibration; published 64% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 85.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 84.6%
Decimal odds 1.09 / 6.00, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Palan | Watanuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 59.1286th of 480 | 60.8218th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 25.6470th of 480 | 34.6148th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 42.38439th of 480 | 47.71167th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 42.00522nd of 577 | 47.44184th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 2 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 19 | 25 |
| Matches rated | 102 | 366 |
Serve and return
| Palan | Watanuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 60.1% | 70.5% |
| Return pts won | 29.5% | 39.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 73.8% | 90.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setWatanuki 80%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setWatanuki 90%set by set, before calibration; published 85% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelWatanuki 20, Palan 13counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 54.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 39.5%
Decimal odds 2.36 / 1.54, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Demin | Bar Biryukov | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 56.9 | 62.8139th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 30.7 | 25.9467th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 43.79 | 44.33360th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 43.24 | 43.92420th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 8 |
| Matches, 12 months | 8 | 45 |
| Matches rated | 23 | 99 |
Serve and return
| Demin | Bar Biryukov | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 66.6% | 67.6% |
| Return pts won | 32.4% | 33.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 85.4% | 87.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setBar Biryukov 53%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBar Biryukov 55%set by set, before calibration; published 54% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 73.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 60.5%
Decimal odds 1.53 / 2.34, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Matsuda | Samrej | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 55.3424th of 480 | 59.1287th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 28.6431st of 480 | 30.6370th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 41.94454th of 480 | 44.86330th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 41.62530th of 577 | 44.69368th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 28 | 29 |
| Matches rated | 36 | 97 |
Serve and return
| Matsuda | Samrej | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 60.2% | 66.3% |
| Return pts won | 33.7% | 39.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 74.1% | 85.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setSamrej 69%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSamrej 78%set by set, before calibration; published 73% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 81.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 84.4%
Decimal odds 1.09 / 5.89, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Krajci | Brunold | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 57.1 | 59.6267th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 30.0 | 35.1124th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 43.56 | 47.35192nd of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 43.04 | 46.93224th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 8 |
| Matches, 12 months | 4 | 37 |
| Matches rated | 14 | 122 |
Serve and return
| Krajci | Brunold | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 57.6% | 66.1% |
| Return pts won | 33.9% | 42.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 68.4% | 84.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setBrunold 76%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBrunold 86%set by set, before calibration; published 81% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelBrunold 6, Krajci 153counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 77.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 73.2%
Decimal odds 3.45 / 1.26, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Visker | Zakaryia | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 62.3152nd of 480 | 50.6 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 24.8474th of 480 | 29.0 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 43.57401st of 480 | 39.78 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 43.12469th of 577 | 39.31 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 1 |
| Matches, 12 months | 30 | 4 |
| Matches rated | 51 | 10 |
Serve and return
| Visker | Zakaryia | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 68.9% | 61.3% |
| Return pts won | 38.7% | 31.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 88.7% | 76.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setVisker 73%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setVisker 82%set by set, before calibration; published 78% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelZakaryia 278, Visker 20counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 54.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 62.8%
Decimal odds 2.47 / 1.46, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Jasika | Donski | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 56.1401st of 480 | 59.7 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.2286th of 480 | 27.3 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 44.14371st of 480 | 43.48 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 43.78429th of 577 | 43.22 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 28 | – |
| Matches rated | 260 | 82 |
Serve and return
| Jasika | Donski | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 64.0% | 62.8% |
| Return pts won | 37.2% | 36.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 81.2% | 79.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setJasika 54%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setJasika 56%set by set, before calibration; published 54% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeDonski 28.3, Jasika 29.5small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelDonski 90, Jasika 6counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -0.5
- First line
- +2.5
- Latest
- +2.5
Tirante +2.5 at +100
- Model
- 52.1%
- First line
- 35.8%
- Latest
- 35.8%
Moneyline Tirante T. +168 / Bellucci M. -203 (vig removed)
- First line
- Pinnacle · 8:33 PM ET
- Latest
- Pinnacle · as of 8:33 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Bellucci | Tirante | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 65.074th of 480 | 66.444th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 35.1125th of 480 | 34.3167th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.0574th of 480 | 50.3263rd of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.8878th of 577 | 50.4757th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 63 | 53 |
| Matches rated | 299 | 383 |
Serve and return
| Bellucci | Tirante | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 66.6% | 67.1% |
| Return pts won | 32.9% | 33.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 85.5% | 86.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawQualifying
- Chance to win a setTirante 52%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setTirante 53%set by set, before calibration; published 52% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeTirante 25.6, Bellucci 25.4small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -1.5
- First line
- -3.5
- Latest
- -3.5
Hijikata -3.5 at +100
- Model
- 59.6%
- First line
- 67.6%
- Latest
- 67.6%
Moneyline Hijikata R. -240 / Kopriva V. +196 (vig removed)
- First line
- Pinnacle · 8:33 PM ET
- Latest
- Pinnacle · as of 8:33 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Kopriva | Hijikata | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 59.4272nd of 480 | 61.3201st of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 35.4106th of 480 | 35.2117th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.39187th of 480 | 48.22154th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.79171st of 577 | 48.16158th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 58 | 69 |
| Matches rated | 434 | 337 |
Serve and return
| Kopriva | Hijikata | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 59.4% | 61.7% |
| Return pts won | 38.3% | 40.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 72.2% | 77.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawQualifying
- Chance to win a setHijikata 58%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setHijikata 62%set by set, before calibration; published 60% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeHijikata 25.7, Kopriva 29.4small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelHijikata 4, Kopriva 20counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -0.5
- First line
- +1.0
- Latest
- +1.0
Kecmanovic +1.0 at -107
- Model
- 55.9%
- First line
- 44.8%
- Latest
- 44.8%
Moneyline Cerundolo J. -136 / Kecmanovic M. +114 (vig removed)
- First line
- Pinnacle · 8:33 PM ET
- Latest
- Pinnacle · as of 8:33 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Kecmanovic | Cerundolo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 63.9102nd of 480 | 63.2122nd of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 35.693rd of 480 | 34.3163rd of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.7387th of 480 | 48.78123rd of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.8482nd of 577 | 49.4496th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 52 | 62 |
| Matches rated | 494 | 399 |
Serve and return
| Kecmanovic | Cerundolo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 65.1% | 63.6% |
| Return pts won | 36.4% | 34.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 83.1% | 80.5% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawQualifying
- Chance to win a setKecmanovic 55%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setKecmanovic 57%set by set, before calibration; published 56% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeCerundolo 25.0, Kecmanovic 27.2small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -0.1
- First line
- +1.0
- Latest
- +1.0
Hanfmann +1.0 at -109
- Model
- 51.1%
- First line
- 45.7%
- Latest
- 45.7%
Moneyline Bonzi B. -130 / Hanfmann Y. +110 (vig removed)
- First line
- Pinnacle · 8:33 PM ET
- Latest
- Pinnacle · as of 8:33 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Hanfmann | Bonzi | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 66.938th of 480 | 64.979th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.3166th of 480 | 35.2118th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.5756th of 480 | 50.0176th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 50.7849th of 577 | 49.9476th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 57 | 58 |
| Matches rated | 566 | 509 |
Serve and return
| Hanfmann | Bonzi | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 65.8% | 65.5% |
| Return pts won | 34.5% | 34.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 84.3% | 83.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawQualifying
- Chance to win a setHanfmann 51%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setHanfmann 51%set by set, before calibration; published 51% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeBonzi 30.4, Hanfmann 35.0small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -1.5
- First line
- -5.0
- Latest
- -5.0
Machac -5.0 at +104
- Model
- 58.6%
- First line
- 82.0%
- Latest
- 82.0%
Moneyline Baez S. +432 / Machac T. -608 (vig removed)
- First line
- Pinnacle · 8:33 PM ET
- Latest
- Pinnacle · as of 8:33 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Machac | Baez | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 63.3117th of 480 | 60.5228th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 36.760th of 480 | 37.436th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.0177th of 480 | 48.94115th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.9870th of 577 | 49.05119th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 35 | 57 |
| Matches rated | 352 | 348 |
Serve and return
| Machac | Baez | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.7% | 59.6% |
| Return pts won | 40.4% | 38.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 77.0% | 72.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawQualifying
- Chance to win a setMachac 57%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMachac 61%set by set, before calibration; published 59% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeBaez 25.8, Machac 26.1small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 67.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 53.6%
Decimal odds 1.99 / 1.72, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Gengel | Vrbensky | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 58.0334th of 480 | 54.1 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.1289th of 480 | 31.6 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 45.08324th of 480 | 42.86 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.66371st of 577 | 42.69 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 28 | – |
| Matches rated | 176 | 206 |
Serve and return
| Gengel | Vrbensky | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.0% | 57.6% |
| Return pts won | 42.4% | 38.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 77.6% | 68.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setGengel 65%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setGengel 72%set by set, before calibration; published 68% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelVrbensky 20, Gengel 48counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -1.5
- First line
- -1.5
- Latest
- -1.5
Sonego -1.5 at -116
- Model
- 55.8%
- First line
- 56.2%
- Latest
- 56.2%
Moneyline Vallejo A. +119 / Sonego L. -142 (vig removed)
- First line
- Pinnacle · 8:33 PM ET
- Latest
- Pinnacle · as of 8:33 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Sonego | Vallejo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 66.052nd of 480 | 60.5229th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.4159th of 480 | 36.953rd of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.2068th of 480 | 48.68131st of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.8779th of 577 | 49.17114th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 35 | 71 |
| Matches rated | 583 | 195 |
Serve and return
| Sonego | Vallejo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.9% | 62.5% |
| Return pts won | 37.5% | 36.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 81.1% | 78.5% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawQualifying
- Chance to win a setSonego 55%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSonego 57%set by set, before calibration; published 56% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeVallejo 22.5, Sonego 31.5small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelVallejo 22, Sonego 13counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- -2.0
- Latest
- -2.0
Borges -2.0 at -106
- Model
- 62.2%
- First line
- 58.0%
- Latest
- 58.0%
Moneyline Borges N. -153 / Molcan A. +128 (vig removed)
- First line
- Pinnacle · 8:33 PM ET
- Latest
- Pinnacle · as of 8:33 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Molcan | Borges | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 62.9133rd of 480 | 66.443rd of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 36.759th of 480 | 36.464th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.8283rd of 480 | 51.4236th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 50.3960th of 577 | 51.5933rd of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 43 | 59 |
| Matches rated | 376 | 362 |
Serve and return
| Molcan | Borges | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.7% | 64.8% |
| Return pts won | 35.2% | 38.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 77.1% | 82.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawQualifying
- Chance to win a setBorges 60%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBorges 65%set by set, before calibration; published 62% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeBorges 29.7, Molcan 28.9small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelBorges 2, Molcan 25counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -3.5
- First line
- -4.5
- Latest
- -4.5
Alcaraz -4.5 at +104
- Model
- 77.2%
- First line
- 78.8%
- Latest
- 78.8%
Moneyline De Minaur A. +350 / Alcaraz C. -474 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · 8:33 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 8:33 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Alcaraz | De Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 70.110th of 480 | 66.446th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 43.91st of 480 | 41.33rd of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 57.002nd of 480 | 53.8110th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 56.932nd of 577 | 53.7511th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Matches, 12 months | 45 | 62 |
| Matches rated | 414 | 564 |
Serve and return
| Alcaraz | De Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 65.0% | 57.8% |
| Return pts won | 42.2% | 35.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 82.9% | 68.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setAlcaraz 73%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setAlcaraz 82%set by set, before calibration; published 77% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeDe Minaur 27.7, Alcaraz 23.5small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 82.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 45.5%
Decimal odds 1.99 / 1.66, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Basel | Farjat | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 48.1403rd of 403 | 54.7 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 26.4401st of 403 | 28.8 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 37.28402nd of 403 | 41.75 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 36.68576th of 577 | 41.23 |
| Wins, last 10 | 0 | 2 |
| Matches, 12 months | 15 | 6 |
| Matches rated | 21 | 74 |
Serve and return
| Basel | Farjat | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 55.6% | 64.5% |
| Return pts won | 35.5% | 44.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 63.7% | 82.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setFarjat 78%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setFarjat 88%set by set, before calibration; published 83% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelFarjat 41, Basel 132counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 80.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 86.1%
Decimal odds 1.07 / 6.64, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Ghazouani Durand | Mpetshi Perricard | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 55.7414th of 480 | 69.214th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.8258th of 480 | 27.3459th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 44.23365th of 480 | 48.25151st of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 43.76432nd of 577 | 48.33151st of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 2 |
| Matches, 12 months | 11 | 33 |
| Matches rated | 12 | 251 |
Serve and return
| Ghazouani Durand | Mpetshi Perricard | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 64.0% | 72.7% |
| Return pts won | 27.3% | 36.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 81.2% | 92.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMpetshi Perricard 75%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMpetshi Perricard 85%set by set, before calibration; published 80% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelMpetshi Perricard 5, Ghazouani Durand 34counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 58.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 27.5%
Decimal odds 3.35 / 1.27, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Sorger | Cerny | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 54.5 | 54.6 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 30.9 | 32.9 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 42.71 | 43.75 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 43.29462nd of 577 | 43.13468th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 2 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 12 | 11 |
| Matches rated | 26 | 22 |
Serve and return
| Sorger | Cerny | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 57.2% | 59.3% |
| Return pts won | 40.7% | 42.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 67.5% | 72.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setCerny 57%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setCerny 61%set by set, before calibration; published 59% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelCerny 97, Sorger 55counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 68.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 54.8%
Decimal odds 2.06 / 1.70, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Damm | Kouame | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 69.019th of 480 | 59.4274th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 31.3345th of 480 | 35.0132nd of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.1370th of 480 | 47.18202nd of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.8384th of 577 | 47.01221st of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 52 | 39 |
| Matches rated | 189 | 44 |
Serve and return
| Damm | Kouame | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 70.2% | 65.3% |
| Return pts won | 34.7% | 29.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 90.4% | 83.5% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setDamm 65%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setDamm 72%set by set, before calibration; published 68% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeKouame 17.7, Damm 23.1small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- -2.5
- Latest
- -2.5
Lehecka -2.5 at +101
- Model
- 70.6%
- First line
- 63.2%
- Latest
- 63.2%
Moneyline Lehecka J. -196 / Vacherot V. +159 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · 8:33 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 8:33 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Vacherot | Lehecka | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 67.928th of 480 | 70.18th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.4160th of 480 | 37.241st of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 51.1242nd of 480 | 53.6712th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 51.1843rd of 577 | 53.5612th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 42 | 56 |
| Matches rated | 220 | 354 |
Serve and return
| Vacherot | Lehecka | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 66.1% | 71.7% |
| Return pts won | 28.3% | 33.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 84.7% | 92.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setLehecka 67%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setLehecka 75%set by set, before calibration; published 71% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeLehecka 25.0, Vacherot 28.0small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 80.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 60.5%
Decimal odds 2.31 / 1.51, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Dellien | Aguilar Cardozo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 61.5130th of 403 | 54.0365th of 403 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 38.235th of 403 | 36.590th of 403 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 49.8272nd of 403 | 45.24277th of 403 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.31100th of 577 | 44.75364th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 63 | 28 |
| Matches rated | 567 | 27 |
Serve and return
| Dellien | Aguilar Cardozo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 60.1% | 52.1% |
| Return pts won | 47.9% | 39.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 73.8% | 55.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setDellien 76%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setDellien 85%set by set, before calibration; published 81% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 71.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 56.0%
Decimal odds 1.65 / 2.10, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Seggerman | Forejtek | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 59.9253rd of 480 | 60.8 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 28.4440th of 480 | 32.9 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 44.16370th of 480 | 46.84 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.31391st of 577 | 46.65 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 17 | – |
| Matches rated | 93 | 249 |
Serve and return
| Seggerman | Forejtek | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.7% | 68.2% |
| Return pts won | 31.8% | 37.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 78.8% | 87.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setForejtek 68%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setForejtek 75%set by set, before calibration; published 71% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelForejtek 13, Seggerman 48counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 51.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 42.0%
Decimal odds 1.96 / 1.42, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Tosetto | Lalami Laaroussi | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 50.7395th of 403 | 54.1 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 29.1383rd of 403 | 25.8 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 39.90398th of 403 | 39.98 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 39.40566th of 577 | 39.03 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 2 |
| Matches, 12 months | 11 | 6 |
| Matches rated | 23 | 11 |
Serve and return
| Tosetto | Lalami Laaroussi | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 61.1% | 61.5% |
| Return pts won | 38.5% | 38.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 75.9% | 76.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setLalami Laaroussi 51%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setLalami Laaroussi 52%set by set, before calibration; published 52% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelLalami Laaroussi 181, Tosetto 181counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 93.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 58.4%
Decimal odds 1.91 / 1.36, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Miguel | Zeballos | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 57.1282nd of 403 | 52.0 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 35.3148th of 403 | 27.9 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 46.18233rd of 403 | 39.96 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.82298th of 577 | 39.54 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 2 |
| Matches, 12 months | 20 | 7 |
| Matches rated | 23 | 111 |
Serve and return
| Miguel | Zeballos | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 67.1% | 53.0% |
| Return pts won | 47.0% | 32.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 86.3% | 57.5% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMiguel 89%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMiguel 97%set by set, before calibration; published 94% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelZeballos 216, Miguel 20counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →