ATP Tennis predictions Sat, Oct 31
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every ATP match. Methodology →
19 tour-level matches on this slate · 79–50 since Oct 20 (model V4) →
7 Challenger matches · Challenger: 34–30 since Oct 27 (model V4) →
Games
Basel
#5
Fritz
#45
Vacherot
Set at line Fritz 73.1% · model 74.5%
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Fritz holds 93% vs 85% · Vacherot +8.6 pts
#51
Struff
#12
Lehecka
Set at line Lehecka 66.2% · model 77.3%
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Lehecka holds 92% vs 81% · Lehecka +10.9 pts
Paris
#30
Tien
#27
Tsitsipas
Biggest factor: Return edge: Tien breaks 16% vs 15% · Tsitsipas +1.1 pts
#92
Svajda
#57
Tirante
Set at line Tirante 44.6% · model 53.0%
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Tirante holds 86% vs 85% · Tirante +1.1 pts
#77
Bellucci
#65
Carreno-Busta
Set at line Bellucci 55.0% · model 57.4%
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Bellucci holds 81% vs 78% · Carreno-Busta +3.4 pts
#158
Hijikata
#135
Faria
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Faria holds 81% vs 80% · Faria +1.0 pts
#171
Kopriva
#179
Gaston
Set at line Kopriva 34.3% · model 43.2%
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Gaston holds 74% vs 71% · Gaston +3.5 pts
#70
Machac
Set at line Landaluce 39.5% · model 46.6%
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Machac holds 79% vs 78% · Machac +1.6 pts
#162
Kovacevic
#96
Cerundolo
Set at line Cerundolo 48.7% · model 56.1%
Biggest factor: Return edge: Cerundolo breaks 13% vs 11% · Cerundolo +2.2 pts
#81
Kecmanovic
Set at line Kecmanovic 54.8% · model 60.3%
Biggest factor: Return edge: Kecmanovic breaks 19% vs 14% · Duckworth +4.2 pts
#76
Bonzi
#53
Griekspoor
Set at line Bonzi 34.6% · model 43.5%
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Griekspoor holds 88% vs 85% · Griekspoor +2.4 pts
#145
Dzumhur
#120
Baez
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Baez holds 72% vs 66% · Baez +6.0 pts
#49
Hanfmann
Set at line Hanfmann 62.0% · model 64.5%
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Hanfmann holds 88% vs 82% · Balshaw +5.7 pts
#32
Munar
#78
Sonego
Biggest factor: Return edge: Munar breaks 24% vs 16% · Sonego +7.5 pts
#106
Altmaier
#60
Molcan
Set at line Molcan 54.0% · model 57.3%
Biggest factor: Return edge: Molcan breaks 22% vs 18% · Molcan +3.3 pts
#59
Dimitrov
#114
Vallejo
Set at line Dimitrov 46.9% · model 56.4%
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Dimitrov holds 80% vs 77% · Vallejo +2.9 pts
#109
Mannarino
Set at line Borges 58.0% · model 70.6%
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Borges holds 84% vs 75% · Borges +9.6 pts
Vienna
#2
Alcaraz
#4
Medvedev
Set at line Alcaraz 67.5% · model 71.6%
Biggest factor: Return edge: Alcaraz breaks 28% vs 17% · Medvedev +10.5 pts
#11
De Minaur
#3
Zverev
Set at line De Minaur 28.1% · model 33.7%
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Zverev holds 87% vs 80% · Zverev +6.8 pts
ATP Challenger 7 matches
Brest Challenger
#39
Prizmic
#93
Damm
Set at line Prizmic 53.5% · model 58.4%
Biggest factor: Return edge: Prizmic breaks 14% vs 11% · Damm +3.0 pts
#110
Virtanen
#237
Kouame
Set at line Virtanen 56.7% · model 63.9%
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Virtanen holds 85% vs 79% · Kouame +6.1 pts
Ningbo Challenger
#315
Hsu
Biggest factor: Return edge: Hsu breaks 29% vs 21% · Demin +8.7 pts
Broady
Set at line Broady 64.4% · model 73.1%
Biggest factor: Return edge: Broady breaks 21% vs 11% · Bar Biryukov +9.7 pts
Seoul Challenger
#101
Atmane
#249
Harris
Set at line Atmane 71.5% · model 75.2%
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Atmane holds 90% vs 79% · Harris +10.5 pts
Sioux Falls Challenger
#210
Blanch
#180
Draxl
Set at line Draxl 42.1% · model 49.3%
#228
Mayo
Set at line Dietrich 65.8% · model 71.1%
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Dietrich holds 89% vs 80% · Dietrich +8.6 pts
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 50.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 57.9%
Decimal odds 2.21 / 1.61, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Blanch | Draxl | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 62.6145th of 480 | 59.9256th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.1293rd of 480 | 35.690th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.32195th of 480 | 47.76165th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.11210th of 577 | 47.55180th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 65 | 52 |
| Matches rated | 97 | 209 |
Serve and return
| Blanch | Draxl | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.9% | 63.7% |
| Return pts won | 36.3% | 36.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 81.1% | 80.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setBlanch 51%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBlanch 51%set by set, before calibration; published 51% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeDraxl 24.9, Blanch 19.1small age adjustment to serve
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 75.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 71.5%
Decimal odds 3.28 / 1.31, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Atmane | Harris | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 66.639th of 480 | 60.7222nd of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.4277th of 480 | 32.7262nd of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.5093rd of 480 | 46.69232nd of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.29101st of 577 | 46.53249th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 48 | 46 |
| Matches rated | 273 | 308 |
Serve and return
| Atmane | Harris | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 69.8% | 63.0% |
| Return pts won | 37.0% | 30.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 89.9% | 79.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setAtmane 71%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setAtmane 80%set by set, before calibration; published 75% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeHarris 31.8, Atmane 24.8small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchHarris from grassgames projection only, not the win chance
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 67.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 56.2%
Decimal odds 2.13 / 1.66, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Hsu | Demin | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 58.0335th of 480 | 56.8 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.8194th of 480 | 30.5 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 45.89279th of 480 | 43.68 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.58315th of 577 | 43.12 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 38 | 7 |
| Matches rated | 214 | 22 |
Serve and return
| Hsu | Demin | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.9% | 58.6% |
| Return pts won | 41.4% | 37.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 79.3% | 70.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setHsu 64%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setHsu 71%set by set, before calibration; published 67% after tempering toward 50%
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 73.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 64.4%
Decimal odds 2.62 / 1.45, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Broady | Bar Biryukov | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 60.4 | 62.6141st of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 35.4 | 25.9467th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.89 | 44.26363rd of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.56 | 43.85425th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | – | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | – | 44 |
| Matches rated | 576 | 98 |
Serve and return
| Broady | Bar Biryukov | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 69.1% | 62.9% |
| Return pts won | 37.1% | 30.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 88.9% | 79.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setBroady 69%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBroady 78%set by set, before calibration; published 73% after tempering toward 50%
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Head to head
| Tien | Tsitsipas | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 64.978th of 480 | 69.215th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 39.111th of 480 | 35.5101st of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 52.0131st of 480 | 52.3325th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 51.9030th of 577 | 52.2327th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 55 | 52 |
| Matches rated | 172 | 641 |
Serve and return
| Tien | Tsitsipas | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 66.1% | 65.4% |
| Return pts won | 34.6% | 33.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 84.8% | 83.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setTien 52%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setTien 53%set by set, before calibration; published 53% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeTsitsipas 28.2, Tien 20.9small age adjustment to serve
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 53.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 44.5%
Decimal odds 2.08 / 1.67, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Svajda | Tirante | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 64.587th of 480 | 66.444th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 35.1126th of 480 | 34.3166th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.8085th of 480 | 50.3363rd of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.5792nd of 577 | 50.4757th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 43 | 53 |
| Matches rated | 288 | 383 |
Serve and return
| Svajda | Tirante | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 66.4% | 67.1% |
| Return pts won | 32.9% | 33.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 85.1% | 86.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawQualifying
- Chance to win a setTirante 52%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setTirante 54%set by set, before calibration; published 53% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeTirante 25.6, Svajda 23.9small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelTirante 12, Svajda 21counted from event start dates
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 57.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 55.0%
Decimal odds 2.05 / 1.68, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Bellucci | Carreno-Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 65.074th of 480 | 63.1127th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 35.1125th of 480 | 37.048th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.0572nd of 480 | 50.0373rd of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.8877th of 577 | 50.2465th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 63 | 46 |
| Matches rated | 299 | 734 |
Serve and return
| Bellucci | Carreno-Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.9% | 62.1% |
| Return pts won | 37.9% | 36.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 81.1% | 77.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawQualifying
- Chance to win a setBellucci 56%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBellucci 59%set by set, before calibration; published 57% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeCarreno-Busta 35.3, Bellucci 25.4small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelCarreno-Busta 19, Bellucci 9counted from event start dates
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 52.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 49.9%
Decimal odds 1.85 / 1.84, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Hijikata | Faria | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.3201st of 480 | 62.7139th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 35.2116th of 480 | 33.9189th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.22154th of 480 | 48.28149th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.16158th of 577 | 48.60135th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 69 | 68 |
| Matches rated | 337 | 195 |
Serve and return
| Hijikata | Faria | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.2% | 63.7% |
| Return pts won | 36.3% | 36.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 79.8% | 80.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawQualifying
- Chance to win a setFaria 52%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setFaria 53%set by set, before calibration; published 52% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeFaria 23.2, Hijikata 25.7small age adjustment to serve
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 56.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 65.7%
Decimal odds 1.40 / 2.68, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Kopriva | Gaston | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 59.4272nd of 480 | 60.1246th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 35.4106th of 480 | 35.883rd of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.39187th of 480 | 47.92160th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.79171st of 577 | 47.63179th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 58 | 51 |
| Matches rated | 434 | 406 |
Serve and return
| Kopriva | Gaston | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 58.8% | 60.4% |
| Return pts won | 39.6% | 41.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 71.0% | 74.5% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawQualifying
- Chance to win a setGaston 56%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setGaston 58%set by set, before calibration; published 57% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeGaston 26.1, Kopriva 29.4small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelGaston 5, Kopriva 19counted from event start dates
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 53.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 60.5%
Decimal odds 1.52 / 2.33, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Landaluce | Machac | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 62.0165th of 480 | 63.3117th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 36.268th of 480 | 36.760th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.12108th of 480 | 50.0175th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.97124th of 577 | 49.9970th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 58 | 35 |
| Matches rated | 196 | 352 |
Serve and return
| Landaluce | Machac | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.0% | 62.9% |
| Return pts won | 37.1% | 38.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 77.6% | 79.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawQualifying
- Chance to win a setMachac 53%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMachac 54%set by set, before calibration; published 53% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeMachac 26.0, Landaluce 20.8small age adjustment to serve
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 56.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 48.6%
Decimal odds 1.88 / 1.78, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Kovacevic | Cerundolo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 66.348th of 480 | 63.2122nd of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 30.2382nd of 480 | 34.3162nd of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.28147th of 480 | 48.78123rd of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.08162nd of 577 | 49.4596th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 53 | 62 |
| Matches rated | 374 | 399 |
Serve and return
| Kovacevic | Cerundolo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 67.3% | 68.9% |
| Return pts won | 31.1% | 32.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 86.6% | 88.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawQualifying
- Chance to win a setCerundolo 55%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setCerundolo 58%set by set, before calibration; published 56% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeCerundolo 25.0, Kovacevic 28.2small age adjustment to serve
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 60.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 54.8%
Decimal odds 2.04 / 1.68, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Kecmanovic | Duckworth | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 63.9102nd of 480 | 65.561st of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 35.693rd of 480 | 32.7260th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.7387th of 480 | 49.10109th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.8481st of 577 | 48.96125th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 52 | 66 |
| Matches rated | 494 | 777 |
Serve and return
| Kecmanovic | Duckworth | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 66.7% | 64.0% |
| Return pts won | 36.0% | 33.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 85.6% | 81.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawQualifying
- Chance to win a setKecmanovic 58%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setKecmanovic 63%set by set, before calibration; published 60% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeDuckworth 34.8, Kecmanovic 27.2small age adjustment to serve
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 56.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 65.4%
Decimal odds 1.40 / 2.65, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Bonzi | Griekspoor | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 64.979th of 480 | 68.423rd of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 35.2117th of 480 | 33.3227th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.0274th of 480 | 50.8550th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.9576th of 577 | 50.5753rd of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 58 | 41 |
| Matches rated | 509 | 453 |
Serve and return
| Bonzi | Griekspoor | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 66.5% | 68.2% |
| Return pts won | 31.8% | 33.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 85.4% | 87.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawQualifying
- Chance to win a setGriekspoor 55%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setGriekspoor 58%set by set, before calibration; published 56% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeGriekspoor 30.3, Bonzi 30.4small age adjustment to serve
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 61.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 45.9%
Decimal odds 1.98 / 1.68, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Dzumhur | Baez | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 59.5270th of 480 | 60.5229th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 37.240th of 480 | 37.436th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.37144th of 480 | 48.95115th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.42145th of 577 | 49.05120th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 53 | 57 |
| Matches rated | 819 | 348 |
Serve and return
| Dzumhur | Baez | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 56.4% | 59.1% |
| Return pts won | 40.9% | 43.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 65.6% | 71.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawQualifying
- Chance to win a setBaez 59%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBaez 64%set by set, before calibration; published 61% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeBaez 25.8, Dzumhur 34.5small age adjustment to serve
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 64.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 62.1%
Decimal odds 2.42 / 1.48, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Hanfmann | Balshaw | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 66.938th of 480 | 62.2157th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.3165th of 480 | 32.5271st of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.5757th of 480 | 47.36190th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 50.7849th of 577 | 47.24203rd of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 57 | 43 |
| Matches rated | 566 | 45 |
Serve and return
| Hanfmann | Balshaw | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 68.5% | 64.7% |
| Return pts won | 35.3% | 31.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 88.2% | 82.5% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawQualifying
- Chance to win a setHanfmann 62%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setHanfmann 68%set by set, before calibration; published 65% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeBalshaw 20.4, Hanfmann 35.0small age adjustment to serve
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 66.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 65.5%
Decimal odds 2.69 / 1.42, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Munar | Sonego | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 64.880th of 480 | 66.052nd of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 39.410th of 480 | 34.4159th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 52.1129th of 480 | 50.2067th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 51.7132nd of 577 | 49.8778th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 36 | 35 |
| Matches rated | 564 | 583 |
Serve and return
| Munar | Sonego | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 65.6% | 61.4% |
| Return pts won | 38.6% | 34.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 83.9% | 76.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawQualifying
- Chance to win a setMunar 64%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMunar 70%set by set, before calibration; published 66% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeSonego 31.5, Munar 29.5small age adjustment to serve
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -3.5
- First line
- -3.0
- Latest
- -3.0
Alcaraz -3.0 at -114
- Model
- 71.6%
- First line
- 67.5%
- Latest
- 67.5%
Moneyline Medvedev D. +193 / Alcaraz C. -242 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · 8:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Alcaraz | Medvedev | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 70.010th of 480 | 68.424th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 43.91st of 480 | 41.23rd of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 56.952nd of 480 | 54.834th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 56.892nd of 577 | 54.514th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Matches, 12 months | 44 | 68 |
| Matches rated | 413 | 714 |
Serve and return
| Alcaraz | Medvedev | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 65.0% | 59.5% |
| Return pts won | 40.5% | 35.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 82.9% | 72.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setAlcaraz 68%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setAlcaraz 76%set by set, before calibration; published 72% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeMedvedev 30.7, Alcaraz 23.5small age adjustment to serve
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- -3.0
- Latest
- -3.0
Fritz -3.0 at -101
- Model
- 74.5%
- First line
- 73.1%
- Latest
- 73.1%
Moneyline Vacherot V. +255 / Fritz T. -329 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · 8:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Fritz | Vacherot | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 72.04th of 480 | 67.728th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 37.144th of 480 | 34.2167th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 54.545th of 480 | 50.9944th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 54.425th of 577 | 51.0545th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 57 | 41 |
| Matches rated | 679 | 219 |
Serve and return
| Fritz | Vacherot | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 72.9% | 66.0% |
| Return pts won | 34.0% | 27.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 93.2% | 84.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setFritz 71%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setFritz 79%set by set, before calibration; published 75% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeVacherot 28.0, Fritz 29.0small age adjustment to serve
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 58.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 53.5%
Decimal odds 2.00 / 1.74, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Prizmic | Damm | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 63.6110th of 480 | 68.621st of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 38.026th of 480 | 31.2353rd of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.8051st of 480 | 49.8781st of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 51.3539th of 577 | 49.5693rd of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 49 | 51 |
| Matches rated | 186 | 188 |
Serve and return
| Prizmic | Damm | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 69.1% | 66.9% |
| Return pts won | 33.1% | 30.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 88.9% | 85.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setPrizmic 57%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setPrizmic 60%set by set, before calibration; published 58% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeDamm 23.1, Prizmic 21.2small age adjustment to serve
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 57.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 54.0%
Decimal odds 1.69 / 1.98, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Altmaier | Molcan | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 63.7105th of 480 | 62.9133rd of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.0179th of 480 | 36.759th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.85118th of 480 | 49.8283rd of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.26106th of 577 | 50.4060th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 54 | 43 |
| Matches rated | 482 | 376 |
Serve and return
| Altmaier | Molcan | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.4% | 64.2% |
| Return pts won | 35.8% | 37.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 78.3% | 81.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawQualifying
- Chance to win a setMolcan 56%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMolcan 59%set by set, before calibration; published 57% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeMolcan 28.9, Altmaier 28.1small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelMolcan 24, Altmaier 2counted from event start dates
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 56.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 46.9%
Decimal odds 1.73 / 1.96, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Dimitrov | Vallejo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 66.346th of 480 | 60.5230th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.9134th of 480 | 36.953rd of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.6454th of 480 | 48.68131st of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 50.4159th of 577 | 49.17114th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 28 | 71 |
| Matches rated | 835 | 195 |
Serve and return
| Dimitrov | Vallejo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.5% | 61.9% |
| Return pts won | 38.1% | 36.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 80.4% | 77.5% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawQualifying
- Chance to win a setDimitrov 55%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setDimitrov 58%set by set, before calibration; published 56% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeVallejo 22.5, Dimitrov 35.5small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelVallejo 21, Dimitrov 4counted from event start dates
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 70.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 58.0%
Decimal odds 1.54 / 2.13, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Mannarino | Borges | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 63.5112th of 480 | 66.443rd of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 35.691st of 480 | 36.464th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.5492nd of 480 | 51.4236th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.22109th of 577 | 51.5933rd of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 57 | 59 |
| Matches rated | 1012 | 362 |
Serve and return
| Mannarino | Borges | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 60.6% | 65.9% |
| Return pts won | 34.1% | 39.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 74.7% | 84.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawQualifying
- Chance to win a setBorges 67%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBorges 75%set by set, before calibration; published 71% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeBorges 29.7, Mannarino 38.3small age adjustment to serve
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 71.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 65.8%
Decimal odds 1.41 / 2.71, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Mayo | Dietrich | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.7181st of 480 | 65.364th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.6264th of 480 | 34.4156th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.16202nd of 480 | 49.8582nd of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.82228th of 577 | 49.6391st of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 9 |
| Matches, 12 months | 36 | 21 |
| Matches rated | 185 | 38 |
Serve and return
| Mayo | Dietrich | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.5% | 69.1% |
| Return pts won | 30.9% | 36.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 80.4% | 89.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setDietrich 68%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setDietrich 75%set by set, before calibration; published 71% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeDietrich 22.1, Mayo 23.5small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchDietrich from claygames projection only, not the win chance
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- -3.5
- Latest
- -3.5
Zverev -3.5 at +105
- Model
- 66.3%
- First line
- 71.9%
- Latest
- 71.9%
Moneyline Zverev A. -307 / De Minaur A. +240 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / BetRivers · 8:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / BetRivers · as of 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| De Minaur | Zverev | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 66.249th of 480 | 73.52nd of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 41.15th of 480 | 38.422nd of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 53.6412th of 480 | 55.913rd of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 53.5911th of 577 | 55.903rd of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Matches, 12 months | 61 | 78 |
| Matches rated | 563 | 816 |
Serve and return
| De Minaur | Zverev | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.2% | 67.5% |
| Return pts won | 32.5% | 36.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 79.9% | 86.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setZverev 64%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setZverev 70%set by set, before calibration; published 66% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeZverev 29.5, De Minaur 27.7small age adjustment to serve
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 63.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 56.7%
Decimal odds 2.15 / 1.64, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Virtanen | Kouame | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 65.075th of 480 | 58.9297th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.4216th of 480 | 34.6144th of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.22105th of 480 | 46.76227th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.21110th of 577 | 46.63237th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 51 | 37 |
| Matches rated | 291 | 42 |
Serve and return
| Virtanen | Kouame | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 66.2% | 62.7% |
| Return pts won | 37.3% | 33.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 84.9% | 78.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setVirtanen 62%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setVirtanen 67%set by set, before calibration; published 64% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeKouame 17.7, Virtanen 25.4small age adjustment to serve
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -3.5
- First line
- -2.5
- Latest
- -2.5
Lehecka -2.5 at -113
- Model
- 77.3%
- First line
- 66.2%
- Latest
- 66.2%
Moneyline Lehecka J. -227 / Struff J. +182 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / BetRivers · 8:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / BetRivers · as of 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Struff | Lehecka | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 67.034th of 480 | 70.28th of 480 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.7141st of 480 | 37.241st of 480 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.8946th of 480 | 53.6711th of 480 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 50.6951st of 577 | 53.5612th of 577 |
| Wins, last 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 58 | 55 |
| Matches rated | 847 | 353 |
Serve and return
| Struff | Lehecka | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.7% | 71.4% |
| Return pts won | 28.6% | 36.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 80.8% | 91.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setLehecka 73%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setLehecka 82%set by set, before calibration; published 77% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeLehecka 25.0, Struff 36.5small age adjustment to serve
Model atp_chal_v4_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →