The models Changelog
What changed in each model and when. A version goes up only when a published number changes; work in testing runs alongside the live model without changing it.
October 2026
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ATP and WTA tabs
Tennis is now two tabs at the top, Tennis (ATP) and Tennis (WTA), each with its own page and home rail.
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Today's card
Every bet our models make today, across every sport, on one page: the model's chance, the market's and the edge between them, with results as games end. Filter by sport or status and sort by start time, win chance or edge. Linked as Card at the top of every page.
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Rematches graded
A match between two players who had met in the previous ten days was never graded. Both such matches from Oct 20 are now graded and count in the record.
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Player props graded
Every NBA player prop is now graded against the box score after the game, including this season's earlier games. A player who did not play is left out, not counted as a miss.
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Audit fixes across the records
Hockey bets waiting on goalies now set at each game's own closing line, not the day's first one. NBA and MLB games published after the day's first line are set at their closing line. The tennis record keeps the chosen model on every tab, and models with nothing graded are no longer offered. Two college teams whose names the books spell differently now get their lines.
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Bets set an hour before kickoff
From week 7, each NFL bet is set about an hour before kickoff, after the inactives are announced, at the line then and the forecast published by then. A game with no line captured in that hour keeps its earlier bet.
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Home crowd edge in testing
A small lift for players at a tournament in their own country is now logged next to every WTA forecast. Published numbers do not change. It is read once a year, first in January 2028.
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Home crowd edge in testing
A small lift for players at a tournament in their own country is now logged next to every ATP forecast. Published numbers do not change. It is read once a year, first in January 2028.
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Records that add up on the page
Every record page lists every game it counts, with a totals line that matches the record above it. Tennis is settled on the moneyline only, and its models sit in one dropdown.
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A bet on every tennis match
Matches our odds feed does not list are settled on the moneyline against the match odds stored with the forecast, so smaller tournaments count too. From today's slate, on the current models.
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Tennis cards back to projected games
Tennis cards show each player's projected games, the projected total and the games spread again, in place of separate medians and a predicted margin that could read as contradicting each other.
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Every tennis model's record
The tennis record pages pick a model at the top: the current one, each earlier one over its whole run, or all models together, so a new model never reads as a reset.
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WTA model V2
WTA forecasts now come from model V2, which replaces model V1. Each player's serve and return level now updates as her form changes through the season, each player gets her own projected games, and totals and margins cover a wider, more realistic range of scores. Model V1's record stays on the site, shown separately.
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ATP model V4
ATP forecasts now come from model V4, which replaces model V3. Each player's serve and return level now updates as their form changes through the season, each player gets their own projected games, and totals and margins cover a wider, more realistic range of scores. Model V3's record stays on the site, shown separately.
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Search
Find a game on today's board by team, city, player or tournament, live as you type and grouped by sport, and narrow any sport's slate the same way.
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This changelog
Every model change, with a version per sport, from now on.
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Hockey bets wait for the goalies
A hockey bet is set at the morning line only if both starting goalies are already confirmed. Otherwise it is set at the closing line, with the forecast published by then.
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Steadier goalie ratings in testing
A goalie rating that reacts less to a handful of starts passed a test on the last two seasons and now runs alongside the live model. It is judged on this season before it can replace it.
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Today means Eastern time
Daily sports stay on today's games until midnight Eastern instead of switching early in the evening.
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Movement chart
Each game's Market tab charts how the model and the line moved before the start.
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Our bet on every card
Each card names the side the record grades and the numbers it was set on. From Oct 14 any edge counts, and the run line compares chances to cover rather than margins.
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Faster, darker, cleaner
Dark mode by default with a light switch, self-hosted fonts, a new card design and a new mark.
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Record against the line
Every game is settled against the first line captured after its forecast, beside the outright record.
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Model vs market
Every card shows the model beside the market's line, a Lines page lists the week ahead, and closing lines are captured before each start.
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Candidate models in testing
Candidate versions now run on the live model's exact inputs after each publish, logged but never shown.
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Questionable quarterbacks
A starting quarterback listed as Questionable is weighted by his chance to play, and his receivers' yards are mixed between him and the backup. The card shows a small chip when it applies.
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Model frozen for the season
Apart from bug fixes, the NFL model stays as it is until Jan 12, 2027, so this season is a clean test of it.
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Power play units in testing
Power play deployment from DailyFaceoff's lines is logged on every run but not used yet.
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One Discord format for every sport
Each sport's channel gets the same post: the top ten games by the model, a preliminary and a final, with a link to the full slate.
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Shots, points and the Tims tab
Shots on goal, points and assists join the player projections, and a Tims tab ranks the day's Tims Hockey Challenge groups by goal chance.
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Transfer portal layer in testing
An adjustment for players arriving through the transfer portal is logged on every game but not shown.
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Player projections audit
Each team's run volume follows its own pace and its opponent, pass attempts reflect how often each offense is sacked, and last week's inactive list no longer rules players out this week.
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Special teams and rain
Special teams now count toward the projected margin. A rain adjustment to totals is refit every run and applies only once its forecast check passes.
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Confirmed starting goalies
The model now uses DailyFaceoff's confirmed or likely starter instead of a guess, and hourly afternoon runs pick up confirmations as they land.
September 2026
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Game sheets
Factors and player projections open in one sheet per game instead of crowding the card.
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Active-roster bullpens
Only relievers on the official active roster can pitch in the simulation, and player projections open in each game sheet.
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NHL player projections
An anytime goal model built on each night's lines, with player projections in every game sheet.
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Qualifying and match handling
Qualifying matches are detected and played as best of three, every match gets one forecast made before it starts, and the WTA win chances are refit on the data that serves them.
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Ready for opening night
Teams are rated before their first game, so opening night on Nov 2 has a full slate of forecasts.
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Goalies at the start of the season
Goalie ratings, starters and the goalie feed now carry correctly from one season into the next.
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Quarterbacks the model has never rated
A starting quarterback with no history now gets a measured rookie-level prior instead of a league-average rating, and a team's rating no longer credits quarterbacks who have left.
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Totals and starting pitcher exits
Game totals are recalibrated, and when a starter leaves is now modeled from his pitch count, the score and his own history together.
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Next model in testing
A new version with ratings that reset more sensibly between seasons runs alongside the live model. It replaces it only after a live record.
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Projections from opening night
Player projections are available for every team's first game, before anyone has played.
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One rating engine for every game
The current model serves every game it can forecast, FCS opponents get their own rating, and games with a first-year FBS team are shown but left out of the record.
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Injuries and back-to-backs
Each night's official injury report and back-to-back schedules now move the projected margin.
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WTA added
The WTA tour gets its own model beside the ATP, with its own record.