The models Changelog
What changed in each model and when. A version goes up only when a published number changes; work in testing runs alongside the live model without changing it.
October 2026
-
Bets set an hour before kickoff
From week 7, each NFL bet is set about an hour before kickoff, after the inactives are announced, at the line then and the forecast published by then. A game with no line captured in that hour keeps its earlier bet.
-
Questionable quarterbacks
A starting quarterback listed as Questionable is weighted by his chance to play, and his receivers' yards are mixed between him and the backup. The card shows a small chip when it applies.
-
Model frozen for the season
Apart from bug fixes, the NFL model stays as it is until Jan 12, 2027, so this season is a clean test of it.
-
Player projections audit
Each team's run volume follows its own pace and its opponent, pass attempts reflect how often each offense is sacked, and last week's inactive list no longer rules players out this week.
-
Special teams and rain
Special teams now count toward the projected margin. A rain adjustment to totals is refit every run and applies only once its forecast check passes.
September 2026
-
Quarterbacks the model has never rated
A starting quarterback with no history now gets a measured rookie-level prior instead of a league-average rating, and a team's rating no longer credits quarterbacks who have left.