The models Changelog
What changed in each model and when. A version goes up only when a published number changes; work in testing runs alongside the live model without changing it.
October 2026
-
Home crowd edge in testing
A small lift for players at a tournament in their own country is now logged next to every ATP forecast. Published numbers do not change. It is read once a year, first in January 2028.
-
A bet on every tennis match
Matches our odds feed does not list are settled on the moneyline against the match odds stored with the forecast, so smaller tournaments count too. From today's slate, on the current models.
-
Tennis cards back to projected games
Tennis cards show each player's projected games, the projected total and the games spread again, in place of separate medians and a predicted margin that could read as contradicting each other.
-
ATP model V4
ATP forecasts now come from model V4, which replaces model V3. Each player's serve and return level now updates as their form changes through the season, each player gets their own projected games, and totals and margins cover a wider, more realistic range of scores. Model V3's record stays on the site, shown separately.
September 2026
-
Qualifying and match handling
Qualifying matches are detected and played as best of three, every match gets one forecast made before it starts, and the WTA win chances are refit on the data that serves them.
-
WTA added
The WTA tour gets its own model beside the ATP, with its own record.