ATP Tennis predictions Fri, Nov 13
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every ATP match. Methodology →
1 tour-level match on this slate · 144–93 since Oct 20 (model V4) →
25 Challenger matches · Challenger: 271–179 since Oct 27 (model V4) →
Games
Stockholm
#62
Tirante
#47
Tabilo
Biggest factor: Return edge · Tabilo
ATP Challenger 25 matches
Brisbane 4 Challenger
#215
Bolt
Biggest factor: Return edge · Gorzny
#128
Shang
#246
Sweeny
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Shang
#241
Tomic
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Holmgren
Hersonissos 5 Challenger
Andreev
Biggest factor: Return edge · Searle
#230
Nagal
#283
Maestrelli
Biggest factor: Return edge · Nagal
#225
Henning
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Henning
Knoxville Challenger
#110
Chidekh
#175
Draxl
Biggest factor: Return edge · Chidekh
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Rehberg
Lima 3 Challenger
#264
Varillas
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Varillas
#187
Boyer
Biggest factor: Return edge · Alcala Gurri
#305
Roncadelli
Biggest factor: Return edge · Roncadelli
Matsuyama Challenger
#322
Hsu
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Friend
#162
Daniel
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Daniel
#242
Harris
Biggest factor: Return edge · Harris
#107
Sakamoto
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Sakamoto
Monastir Challenger
Mikrut
Biggest factor: Return edge · Mikrut
Biggest factor: Return edge · Moeller
#178
Moro Canas
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Moro Canas
#160
Feldbausch
Biggest factor: Return edge · Feldbausch
Orleans Challenger
#119
Altmaier
#181
Piros
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Altmaier
#81
Basavareddy
#219
Gentzsch
Biggest factor: Return edge · Basavareddy
#254
Martinez
#287
Hemery
Biggest factor: Return edge · Martinez
#112
Virtanen
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Virtanen
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 58.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 58.7%
Decimal odds 2.25 / 1.58, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Varillas | Olivieri | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 59.9198th of 404 | 55.9 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 33.8212th of 404 | 35.3 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 46.84200th of 404 | 45.56 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.31264th of 566 | 45.13 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 58 | – |
| Matches rated | 470 | 338 |
Serve and return
| Varillas | Olivieri | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 60.1% | 58.0% |
| Return pts won | 42.0% | 39.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 73.7% | 69.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setVarillas 57%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setVarillas 61%set by set, before calibration; published 59% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeOlivieri 28.3, Varillas 31.1small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 54.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 52.8%
Decimal odds 1.76 / 1.97, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Bolt | Gorzny | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 62.5139th of 473 | 61.3195th of 473 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 31.7312th of 473 | 32.2283rd of 473 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.08206th of 473 | 46.71231st of 473 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.05215th of 566 | 46.54252nd of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 43 | 19 |
| Matches rated | 504 | 25 |
Serve and return
| Bolt | Gorzny | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 64.6% | 65.8% |
| Return pts won | 34.2% | 35.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 82.2% | 84.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setGorzny 54%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setGorzny 56%set by set, before calibration; published 55% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeGorzny 22.8, Bolt 33.9small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 62.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 56.8%
Decimal odds 2.16 / 1.64, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Friend | Hsu | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.2197th of 473 | 58.2334th of 473 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.5204th of 473 | 33.6202nd of 473 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.39187th of 473 | 45.87275th of 473 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.12207th of 566 | 45.44322nd of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 40 | 38 |
| Matches rated | 59 | 223 |
Serve and return
| Friend | Hsu | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.2% | 60.0% |
| Return pts won | 40.0% | 36.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 79.8% | 73.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setFriend 61%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setFriend 66%set by set, before calibration; published 63% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 59.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 68.4%
Decimal odds 2.95 / 1.36, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Daniel | Noguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.9165th of 473 | 58.1 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.7186th of 473 | 34.3 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.84164th of 473 | 46.19 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.02162nd of 566 | 45.96 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 46 | – |
| Matches rated | 800 | 275 |
Serve and return
| Daniel | Noguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.9% | 59.7% |
| Return pts won | 40.3% | 38.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 77.4% | 72.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setDaniel 58%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setDaniel 61%set by set, before calibration; published 59% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeNoguchi 27.9, Daniel 33.8small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 69.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 62.1%
Decimal odds 2.46 / 1.50, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Shang | Sweeny | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 63.899th of 473 | 58.5316th of 473 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.7191st of 473 | 34.8126th of 473 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.76124th of 473 | 46.68232nd of 473 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.76128th of 566 | 46.64246th of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 19 | 55 |
| Matches rated | 200 | 210 |
Serve and return
| Shang | Sweeny | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 65.4% | 60.6% |
| Return pts won | 39.4% | 34.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 83.7% | 74.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setShang 66%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setShang 73%set by set, before calibration; published 69% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeSweeny 25.7, Shang 21.8small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 78.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 76.3%
Decimal odds 3.93 / 1.22, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Harris | Uchida | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 60.8218th of 473 | 58.0 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.7245th of 473 | 27.9 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.75227th of 473 | 42.93 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.69242nd of 566 | 42.50 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 49 | – |
| Matches rated | 322 | 417 |
Serve and return
| Harris | Uchida | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 67.5% | 59.8% |
| Return pts won | 40.2% | 32.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 86.9% | 73.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setHarris 74%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setHarris 83%set by set, before calibration; published 78% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeUchida 32.2, Harris 31.8small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchHarris from grassgames projection only, not the win chance
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 88.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 81.8%
Decimal odds 1.14 / 5.14, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Milic | Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 56.9383rd of 473 | 65.458th of 473 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 31.4326th of 473 | 33.7189th of 473 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 44.20372nd of 473 | 49.5391st of 473 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 43.55444th of 566 | 49.23107th of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 31 | 63 |
| Matches rated | 31 | 147 |
Serve and return
| Milic | Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 58.7% | 70.6% |
| Return pts won | 29.4% | 41.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 70.9% | 90.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setSakamoto 84%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSakamoto 93%set by set, before calibration; published 89% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 54.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 57.2%
Decimal odds 2.18 / 1.63, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Holmgren | Tomic | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 63.992nd of 473 | 61.8170th of 473 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 30.2386th of 473 | 32.2278th of 473 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.06209th of 473 | 47.01211th of 473 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.94222nd of 566 | 46.70241st of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 55 | 47 |
| Matches rated | 205 | 693 |
Serve and return
| Holmgren | Tomic | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 66.9% | 65.9% |
| Return pts won | 34.1% | 33.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 86.0% | 84.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setHolmgren 53%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setHolmgren 55%set by set, before calibration; published 54% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeTomic 34.1, Holmgren 28.6small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 50.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 42.0%
Decimal odds 1.61 / 2.22, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Langmo | Santillan | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 59.4274th of 473 | 59.6 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 30.0393rd of 473 | 30.3 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 44.69342nd of 473 | 44.92 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.57375th of 566 | 44.67 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 40 | – |
| Matches rated | 206 | 336 |
Serve and return
| Langmo | Santillan | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 64.6% | 64.6% |
| Return pts won | 35.4% | 35.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 82.4% | 82.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setLangmo 50%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setLangmo 50%set by set, before calibration; published 50% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 50.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 58.9%
Decimal odds 1.58 / 2.26, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Andreev | Ribecai | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 57.7 | 56.9385th of 473 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.4 | 35.687th of 473 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.04 | 46.21259th of 473 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.96 | 46.30265th of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 9 | 59 |
| Matches rated | 243 | 68 |
Serve and return
| Andreev | Ribecai | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 57.9% | 58.0% |
| Return pts won | 42.0% | 42.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 69.0% | 69.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setRibecai 50%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setRibecai 51%set by set, before calibration; published 50% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 62.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 60.1%
Decimal odds 2.33 / 1.55, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Searle | Giunta | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.8172nd of 473 | 60.9211th of 473 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 31.7309th of 473 | 30.5373rd of 473 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.74228th of 473 | 45.73282nd of 473 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.91227th of 566 | 45.49317th of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 31 | 27 |
| Matches rated | 85 | 54 |
Serve and return
| Searle | Giunta | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 67.9% | 64.7% |
| Return pts won | 35.3% | 32.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 87.3% | 82.5% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setSearle 60%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSearle 65%set by set, before calibration; published 62% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 52.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 44.2%
Decimal odds 1.67 / 2.11, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Nagal | Maestrelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 58.2333rd of 473 | 61.4191st of 473 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 36.071st of 473 | 31.3337th of 473 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.09205th of 473 | 46.33255th of 473 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.80230th of 566 | 46.04283rd of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 47 | 50 |
| Matches rated | 472 | 304 |
Serve and return
| Nagal | Maestrelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.0% | 61.4% |
| Return pts won | 38.6% | 38.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 77.6% | 76.5% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setNagal 52%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setNagal 53%set by set, before calibration; published 52% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeMaestrelli 23.9, Nagal 29.2small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 73.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 68.9%
Decimal odds 2.99 / 1.35, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Henning | Carboni | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 60.4233rd of 473 | 56.0412th of 473 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.2161st of 473 | 32.6260th of 473 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.32194th of 473 | 44.28367th of 473 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.92225th of 566 | 43.93419th of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 34 | 31 |
| Matches rated | 61 | 69 |
Serve and return
| Henning | Carboni | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.4% | 57.3% |
| Return pts won | 42.7% | 36.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 80.1% | 67.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setHenning 70%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setHenning 78%set by set, before calibration; published 74% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 54.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 59.8%
Decimal odds 2.31 / 1.55, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Mikrut | Forejtek | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.0 | 61.1 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.1 | 32.4 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.05 | 46.74 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.94 | 46.46 |
| Matches rated | 113 | 257 |
Serve and return
| Mikrut | Forejtek | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 64.9% | 63.8% |
| Return pts won | 36.2% | 35.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 82.8% | 80.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMikrut 54%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMikrut 56%set by set, before calibration; published 55% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeForejtek 25.7, Mikrut 22.6small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchMikrut from claygames projection only, not the win chance
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 60.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 56.8%
Decimal odds 2.16 / 1.64, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Altmaier | Piros | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 63.5105th of 473 | 60.2242nd of 473 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.7195th of 473 | 34.2165th of 473 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.60133rd of 473 | 47.17201st of 473 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.98119th of 566 | 47.49181st of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 54 | 63 |
| Matches rated | 487 | 388 |
Serve and return
| Altmaier | Piros | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 64.7% | 62.0% |
| Return pts won | 38.0% | 35.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 82.4% | 77.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setAltmaier 59%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setAltmaier 63%set by set, before calibration; published 61% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgePiros 27.1, Altmaier 28.2small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 67.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 46.5%
Decimal odds 2.00 / 1.74, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Giustino | Moeller | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 57.7 | 58.3 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.5 | 34.9 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 45.10 | 46.58 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.97 | 46.61 |
| Matches rated | 619 | 142 |
Serve and return
| Giustino | Moeller | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 56.9% | 61.2% |
| Return pts won | 38.8% | 43.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 66.7% | 75.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMoeller 65%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMoeller 71%set by set, before calibration; published 67% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeMoeller 27.8, Giustino 35.2small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 53.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 56.2%
Decimal odds 1.68 / 2.16, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Tirante | Tabilo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 66.440th of 473 | 66.244th of 473 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.7184th of 473 | 35.498th of 473 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.0770th of 473 | 50.8246th of 473 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 50.1662nd of 566 | 50.7847th of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 54 | 68 |
| Matches rated | 389 | 451 |
Serve and return
| Tirante | Tabilo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 66.7% | 67.5% |
| Return pts won | 32.5% | 33.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 85.7% | 86.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setTabilo 53%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setTabilo 54%set by set, before calibration; published 53% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeTabilo 29.4, Tirante 25.6small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 54.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 63.9%
Decimal odds 2.58 / 1.46, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Moro Canas | Vives Marcos | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 60.8219th of 473 | 60.2 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.0170th of 473 | 33.7 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.39186th of 473 | 46.96 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.64178th of 566 | 46.24271st of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 58 | 10 |
| Matches rated | 268 | 42 |
Serve and return
| Moro Canas | Vives Marcos | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.8% | 61.7% |
| Return pts won | 38.3% | 37.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 79.1% | 77.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMoro Canas 54%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMoro Canas 55%set by set, before calibration; published 54% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 69.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 71.9%
Decimal odds 1.30 / 3.32, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Petkovic | Feldbausch | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 58.2330th of 473 | 57.8351st of 473 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.5263rd of 473 | 36.755th of 473 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 45.38301st of 473 | 47.24198th of 473 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.61371st of 566 | 48.06160th of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 20 | 47 |
| Matches rated | 38 | 122 |
Serve and return
| Petkovic | Feldbausch | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 57.1% | 61.8% |
| Return pts won | 38.2% | 42.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 67.1% | 77.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setFeldbausch 66%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setFeldbausch 73%set by set, before calibration; published 69% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 76.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 71.6%
Decimal odds 3.23 / 1.28, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Basavareddy | Gentzsch | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 63.7101st of 473 | 61.1201st of 473 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 36.268th of 473 | 31.8298th of 473 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.9277th of 473 | 46.49243rd of 473 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.6881st of 566 | 46.99219th of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 45 | 62 |
| Matches rated | 171 | 126 |
Serve and return
| Basavareddy | Gentzsch | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 68.3% | 61.1% |
| Return pts won | 38.9% | 31.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 87.9% | 75.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setBasavareddy 72%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBasavareddy 81%set by set, before calibration; published 77% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeGentzsch 23.2, Basavareddy 21.5small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchGentzsch from grassgames projection only, not the win chance
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 56.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 59.2%
Decimal odds 2.25 / 1.55, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Martinez | Hemery | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 58.4320th of 473 | 61.5187th of 473 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.8124th of 473 | 30.6372nd of 473 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.61236th of 473 | 46.01268th of 473 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.53254th of 566 | 45.95287th of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 54 | 45 |
| Matches rated | 553 | 473 |
Serve and return
| Martinez | Hemery | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.9% | 61.3% |
| Return pts won | 38.7% | 37.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 79.2% | 76.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMartinez 55%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMartinez 58%set by set, before calibration; published 57% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeHemery 31.8, Martinez 29.5small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 59.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 53.7%
Decimal odds 2.01 / 1.73, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Alcala Gurri | Boyer | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 58.0255th of 404 | 60.1181st of 404 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 39.514th of 404 | 34.9151st of 404 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 48.76108th of 404 | 47.53163rd of 404 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.23152nd of 566 | 47.37187th of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 47 | 39 |
| Matches rated | 104 | 214 |
Serve and return
| Alcala Gurri | Boyer | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 59.3% | 57.1% |
| Return pts won | 42.9% | 40.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 72.2% | 67.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setAlcala Gurri 58%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setAlcala Gurri 62%set by set, before calibration; published 59% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 63.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 65.6%
Decimal odds 2.71 / 1.42, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Chidekh | Draxl | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.8171st of 473 | 60.2243rd of 473 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 37.431st of 473 | 35.782nd of 473 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.6289th of 473 | 47.92162nd of 473 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.21110th of 566 | 47.68175th of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 67 | 55 |
| Matches rated | 183 | 225 |
Serve and return
| Chidekh | Draxl | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.9% | 58.6% |
| Return pts won | 41.4% | 38.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 77.5% | 70.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setChidekh 61%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setChidekh 67%set by set, before calibration; published 64% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeDraxl 24.9, Chidekh 25.4small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 64.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 66.7%
Decimal odds 2.75 / 1.37, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Roncadelli | Magadan | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 55.3351st of 404 | 57.0299th of 404 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 37.255th of 404 | 31.8315th of 404 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 46.25231st of 404 | 44.39325th of 404 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.68305th of 566 | 44.39393rd of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 53 | 26 |
| Matches rated | 131 | 54 |
Serve and return
| Roncadelli | Magadan | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 59.8% | 56.3% |
| Return pts won | 43.7% | 40.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 73.1% | 65.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setRoncadelli 62%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setRoncadelli 68%set by set, before calibration; published 64% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 64.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 62.1%
Decimal odds 2.44 / 1.49, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Virtanen | Gueymard Wayenburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 64.580th of 473 | 62.3145th of 473 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.9181st of 473 | 32.7246th of 473 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.19102nd of 473 | 47.51179th of 473 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.15112th of 566 | 47.00217th of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 52 | 57 |
| Matches rated | 307 | 166 |
Serve and return
| Virtanen | Gueymard Wayenburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 67.6% | 64.0% |
| Return pts won | 36.0% | 32.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 87.0% | 81.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setVirtanen 62%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setVirtanen 67%set by set, before calibration; published 64% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 55.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 52.8%
Decimal odds 1.76 / 1.97, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Milavsky | Rehberg | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.3193rd of 473 | 61.8 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.6259th of 473 | 32.7 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.96214th of 473 | 47.28 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.78232nd of 566 | 47.23 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 38 | – |
| Matches rated | 71 | 182 |
Serve and return
| Milavsky | Rehberg | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 64.1% | 65.4% |
| Return pts won | 34.6% | 35.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 81.4% | 83.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setRehberg 54%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setRehberg 56%set by set, before calibration; published 55% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →