ATP Tennis predictions Thu, Nov 12
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every ATP match. Methodology →
4 tour-level matches on this slate · 142–92 since Oct 20 (model V4) →
25 Challenger matches · Challenger: 257–171 since Oct 27 (model V4) →
Games
Stockholm
#48
Tabilo
#19
Michelsen
Biggest factor: Return edge · Michelsen
#60
Tirante
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Tirante
Rune
#4
Fritz
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Fritz
#33
Humbert
#17
Musetti
Biggest factor: Return edge · Musetti
ATP Challenger 25 matches
Brisbane 4 Challenger
Biggest factor: Serve edge · McCabe
#130
Shang
Biggest factor: Return edge · Shang
Biggest factor: Return edge · Hewitt
Hersonissos 5 Challenger
Biggest factor: Return edge · Xilas
Biggest factor: Return edge · Ribecai
#249
Henning
#268
Cretu
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Henning
#325
Brancaccio
Andreev
Biggest factor: Return edge · Andreev
Knoxville Challenger
#205
Mejia
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Rehberg
#93
Zheng
Biggest factor: Return edge · Zheng
Biggest factor: Return edge · Kozlov
#286
Shelbayh
#120
Giron
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Giron
Lima 3 Challenger
#302
Barrena
Biggest factor: Return edge · Barrena
#118
Comesana
#305
Roncadelli
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Comesana
Matsuyama Challenger
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Milic
#229
Zhou
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Zhou
#111
Sakamoto
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Sakamoto
#168
Daniel
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Schoenhaus
Monastir Challenger
#545
Ouakaa
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Moeller
#230
Blanch
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Blanch
#330
Echargui
Biggest factor: Return edge · Petkovic
#157
Feldbausch
Biggest factor: Return edge · Feldbausch
Orleans Challenger
#114
Virtanen
#95
Svrcina
Biggest factor: Return edge · Svrcina
Martineau
#255
Martinez
Biggest factor: Return edge · Martinez
#287
Hemery
#123
Baez
Biggest factor: Return edge · Baez
#121
Jacquet
#81
Basavareddy
Biggest factor: Return edge · Basavareddy
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 52.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 62.2%
Decimal odds 2.47 / 1.50, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Rehberg | Mejia | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.3 | 60.6225th of 469 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.6 | 33.4207th of 469 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.99 | 46.97212th of 469 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.99 | 47.15205th of 565 |
| Wins, last 10 | – | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | – | 52 |
| Matches rated | 181 | 344 |
Serve and return
| Rehberg | Mejia | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 64.2% | 63.5% |
| Return pts won | 36.5% | 35.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 81.5% | 80.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setRehberg 52%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setRehberg 53%set by set, before calibration; published 53% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeMejia 26.8, Rehberg 23.2small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchRehberg from claygames projection only, not the win chance
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 58.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 74.8%
Decimal odds 1.25 / 3.71, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Nakagawa | Milic | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 55.0 | 56.7386th of 469 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 30.3 | 30.6366th of 469 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 42.66 | 43.69393rd of 469 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 42.37 | 43.12471st of 565 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 9 | 30 |
| Matches rated | 19 | 30 |
Serve and return
| Nakagawa | Milic | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 59.9% | 62.0% |
| Return pts won | 38.0% | 40.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 73.4% | 77.5% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMilic 57%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMilic 60%set by set, before calibration; published 58% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 62.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 64.3%
Decimal odds 2.61 / 1.45, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Zhou | Noguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 62.6134th of 469 | 57.9 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 31.6314th of 469 | 34.3 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.12202nd of 469 | 46.10 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.83229th of 565 | 45.88 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 43 | – |
| Matches rated | 118 | 274 |
Serve and return
| Zhou | Noguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 64.8% | 61.6% |
| Return pts won | 38.4% | 35.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 82.6% | 76.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setZhou 60%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setZhou 65%set by set, before calibration; published 63% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeNoguchi 27.9, Zhou 21.7small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 55.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 60.6%
Decimal odds 2.37 / 1.54, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| McCabe | Langmo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 60.4233rd of 469 | 59.2281st of 469 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 29.3414th of 469 | 29.8400th of 469 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 44.84333rd of 469 | 44.52348th of 469 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.76366th of 565 | 44.40390th of 565 |
| Wins, last 10 | 2 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 40 | 39 |
| Matches rated | 230 | 205 |
Serve and return
| McCabe | Langmo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 66.7% | 65.4% |
| Return pts won | 34.6% | 33.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 85.7% | 83.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMcCabe 54%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMcCabe 56%set by set, before calibration; published 55% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 85.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 83.4%
Decimal odds 1.12 / 5.62, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Samrej | Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 59.0290th of 469 | 65.458th of 469 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 30.4372nd of 469 | 33.6199th of 469 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 44.69342nd of 469 | 49.4794th of 469 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.49383rd of 565 | 49.16111th of 565 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 30 | 62 |
| Matches rated | 105 | 146 |
Serve and return
| Samrej | Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.1% | 71.6% |
| Return pts won | 28.4% | 38.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 75.8% | 91.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setSakamoto 80%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSakamoto 90%set by set, before calibration; published 85% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeSakamoto 20.4, Samrej 25.8small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 51.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 37.0%
Decimal odds 2.52 / 1.48, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Daniel | Schoenhaus | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.8172nd of 469 | 61.5186th of 469 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.4206th of 469 | 31.5322nd of 469 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.60173rd of 469 | 46.52241st of 469 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.80168th of 565 | 46.63245th of 565 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 45 | 30 |
| Matches rated | 799 | 39 |
Serve and return
| Daniel | Schoenhaus | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 64.5% | 65.0% |
| Return pts won | 35.0% | 35.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 82.1% | 82.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setSchoenhaus 51%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSchoenhaus 52%set by set, before calibration; published 52% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeSchoenhaus 19.3, Daniel 33.8small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 76.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 73.2%
Decimal odds 3.46 / 1.27, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Shang | Overbeck | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 63.898th of 469 | 60.9216th of 469 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.4205th of 469 | 29.9394th of 469 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.63130th of 469 | 45.38300th of 469 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.65130th of 565 | 45.01349th of 565 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 18 | 27 |
| Matches rated | 199 | 37 |
Serve and return
| Shang | Overbeck | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 70.3% | 62.9% |
| Return pts won | 37.1% | 29.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 90.5% | 79.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setShang 73%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setShang 82%set by set, before calibration; published 77% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 57.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 54.0%
Decimal odds 1.72 / 2.02, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Santillan | Hewitt | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 59.2 | 57.7350th of 469 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 30.4 | 31.8301st of 469 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 44.81 | 44.72340th of 469 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.57 | 44.53376th of 565 |
| Wins, last 10 | – | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | – | 21 |
| Matches rated | 335 | 34 |
Serve and return
| Santillan | Hewitt | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.5% | 64.4% |
| Return pts won | 35.6% | 37.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 78.6% | 82.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setHewitt 56%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setHewitt 59%set by set, before calibration; published 58% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeHewitt 17.9, Santillan 29.5small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 60.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 56.8%
Decimal odds 2.16 / 1.64, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Xilas | Carboni | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 55.1 | 55.7421st of 469 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 35.1 | 32.0286th of 469 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 45.10 | 43.88383rd of 469 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.55 | 43.64438th of 565 |
| Wins, last 10 | – | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | – | 30 |
| Matches rated | 32 | 68 |
Serve and return
| Xilas | Carboni | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 58.7% | 56.2% |
| Return pts won | 43.8% | 41.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 70.7% | 65.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setXilas 59%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setXilas 63%set by set, before calibration; published 60% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 51.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 43.7%
Decimal odds 2.13 / 1.65, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Caniato | Ribecai | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.6 | 56.8385th of 469 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 30.1 | 35.397th of 469 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 45.86 | 46.08263rd of 469 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.92225th of 565 | 46.16274th of 565 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 41 | 58 |
| Matches rated | 63 | 67 |
Serve and return
| Caniato | Ribecai | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.8% | 62.2% |
| Return pts won | 37.8% | 38.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 77.2% | 78.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setRibecai 51%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setRibecai 52%set by set, before calibration; published 52% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 72.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 64.3%
Decimal odds 2.61 / 1.45, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Henning | Cretu | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 60.3238th of 469 | 55.0 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.7185th of 469 | 33.5 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.02209th of 469 | 44.24 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.57249th of 565 | 46.25268th of 565 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 33 | 48 |
| Matches rated | 60 | 111 |
Serve and return
| Henning | Cretu | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.4% | 56.8% |
| Return pts won | 43.2% | 37.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 78.3% | 66.5% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setHenning 68%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setHenning 76%set by set, before calibration; published 72% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 56.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 47.6%
Decimal odds 1.94 / 1.76, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Brancaccio | Andreev | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 57.7352nd of 469 | 57.7 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.7187th of 469 | 34.4 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 45.69284th of 469 | 46.04 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.37325th of 565 | 45.96 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 53 | 9 |
| Matches rated | 351 | 243 |
Serve and return
| Brancaccio | Andreev | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 58.3% | 59.7% |
| Return pts won | 40.3% | 41.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 70.0% | 73.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setAndreev 55%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setAndreev 57%set by set, before calibration; published 56% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeAndreev 25.5, Brancaccio 29.5small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchBrancaccio from claygames projection only, not the win chance
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 86.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 71.4%
Decimal odds 1.31 / 3.27, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Ouakaa | Moeller | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 52.5465th of 469 | 58.4 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 30.6367th of 469 | 34.9 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 41.54456th of 469 | 46.65 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 40.78545th of 565 | 46.69 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 16 | – |
| Matches rated | 36 | 141 |
Serve and return
| Ouakaa | Moeller | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 53.1% | 63.2% |
| Return pts won | 36.8% | 46.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 57.7% | 79.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMoeller 81%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMoeller 91%set by set, before calibration; published 86% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 74.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 42.3%
Decimal odds 2.20 / 1.61, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Giustino | Blanch | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 57.7 | 62.2151st of 469 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.6 | 31.7305th of 469 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 45.14 | 46.95217th of 469 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.00 | 46.82230th of 565 |
| Wins, last 10 | – | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | – | 61 |
| Matches rated | 618 | 106 |
Serve and return
| Giustino | Blanch | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 60.0% | 66.5% |
| Return pts won | 33.5% | 40.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 73.5% | 85.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setBlanch 71%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBlanch 79%set by set, before calibration; published 75% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeBlanch 19.1, Giustino 35.2small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchGiustino from claygames projection only, not the win chance
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 72.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 74.9%
Decimal odds 1.26 / 3.76, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Tabilo | Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 66.246th of 469 | 67.137th of 469 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 35.3101st of 469 | 39.110th of 469 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.7247th of 469 | 53.0916th of 469 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 50.7048th of 565 | 52.8519th of 565 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 67 | 66 |
| Matches rated | 450 | 264 |
Serve and return
| Tabilo | Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.1% | 68.2% |
| Return pts won | 31.8% | 37.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 77.8% | 87.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setMichelsen 69%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMichelsen 77%set by set, before calibration; published 73% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeMichelsen 22.2, Tabilo 29.4small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 54.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 43.0%
Decimal odds 2.17 / 1.64, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Virtanen | Svrcina | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 64.480th of 469 | 58.9292nd of 469 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.7186th of 469 | 40.16th of 469 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.07105th of 469 | 49.5092nd of 469 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.04114th of 565 | 49.3995th of 565 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 51 | 51 |
| Matches rated | 306 | 314 |
Serve and return
| Virtanen | Svrcina | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 60.1% | 61.2% |
| Return pts won | 38.8% | 39.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 73.9% | 76.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setSvrcina 54%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSvrcina 56%set by set, before calibration; published 55% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeSvrcina 24.1, Virtanen 25.4small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 51.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 33.7%
Decimal odds 1.40 / 2.75, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Petkovic | Echargui | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 57.5 | 58.9296th of 469 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.9 | 32.3265th of 469 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 45.21 | 45.62290th of 469 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.52380th of 565 | 45.23330th of 565 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 19 | 41 |
| Matches rated | 37 | 241 |
Serve and return
| Petkovic | Echargui | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 60.7% | 60.3% |
| Return pts won | 39.7% | 39.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 75.1% | 74.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setPetkovic 51%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setPetkovic 52%set by set, before calibration; published 52% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 86.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 76.6%
Decimal odds 1.21 / 3.97, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Malige | Feldbausch | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 53.5 | 57.9 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 31.9 | 36.7 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 42.69 | 47.30 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 42.26 | 48.15157th of 565 |
| Wins, last 10 | 2 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 7 | 46 |
| Matches rated | 50 | 121 |
Serve and return
| Malige | Feldbausch | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 52.3% | 62.6% |
| Return pts won | 37.4% | 47.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 55.8% | 78.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setFeldbausch 82%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setFeldbausch 91%set by set, before calibration; published 87% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 52.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 45.8%
Decimal odds 2.01 / 1.70, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Martineau | Martinez | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.9 | 58.4320th of 469 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 30.4 | 34.8123rd of 469 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.16 | 46.61235th of 469 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.76 | 46.53255th of 565 |
| Wins, last 10 | – | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | – | 54 |
| Matches rated | 351 | 553 |
Serve and return
| Martineau | Martinez | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.4% | 63.0% |
| Return pts won | 37.0% | 37.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 78.4% | 79.5% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMartinez 52%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMartinez 53%set by set, before calibration; published 52% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeMartinez 29.5, Martineau 27.8small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 61.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 43.9%
Decimal odds 2.15 / 1.68, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Shevchenko | Tirante | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 62.9130th of 469 | 66.243rd of 469 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.5138th of 469 | 34.1165th of 469 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.68127th of 469 | 50.1767th of 469 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.56135th of 565 | 50.2760th of 565 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 54 | 53 |
| Matches rated | 342 | 388 |
Serve and return
| Shevchenko | Tirante | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 64.4% | 67.5% |
| Return pts won | 32.5% | 35.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 82.0% | 86.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setTirante 60%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setTirante 65%set by set, before calibration; published 62% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeTirante 25.6, Shevchenko 26.0small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 85.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 71.6%
Decimal odds 3.27 / 1.30, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Zheng | Baris | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 62.6136th of 469 | 58.1335th of 469 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 36.751st of 469 | 32.0285th of 469 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.6587th of 469 | 45.07318th of 469 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.4593rd of 565 | 44.82359th of 565 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 40 | 10 |
| Matches rated | 109 | 50 |
Serve and return
| Zheng | Baris | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 66.8% | 56.9% |
| Return pts won | 43.1% | 33.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 85.8% | 66.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setZheng 80%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setZheng 90%set by set, before calibration; published 85% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 68.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 67.8%
Decimal odds 1.37 / 2.88, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Shick | Kozlov | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 58.3324th of 469 | 57.9 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 31.0348th of 469 | 36.4 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 44.69343rd of 469 | 47.16 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.43388th of 565 | 47.01 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 35 | – |
| Matches rated | 43 | 465 |
Serve and return
| Shick | Kozlov | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 57.4% | 62.0% |
| Return pts won | 38.0% | 42.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 67.9% | 77.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setKozlov 65%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setKozlov 72%set by set, before calibration; published 69% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 63.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 70.4%
Decimal odds 1.32 / 3.14, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Shelbayh | Giron | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 58.5316th of 469 | 63.6104th of 469 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.2160th of 469 | 34.4152nd of 469 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.38248th of 469 | 48.96112th of 469 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.00286th of 565 | 48.96120th of 565 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 47 | 45 |
| Matches rated | 239 | 566 |
Serve and return
| Shelbayh | Giron | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 60.4% | 63.7% |
| Return pts won | 36.3% | 39.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 74.4% | 80.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setGiron 61%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setGiron 66%set by set, before calibration; published 63% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeGiron 33.3, Shelbayh 23.0small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 66.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 73.7%
Decimal odds 3.55 / 1.27, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Barrena | Magadan | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 56.4324th of 404 | 57.0299th of 404 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 36.190th of 404 | 31.8316th of 404 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 46.27230th of 404 | 44.39325th of 404 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.76302nd of 565 | 44.39393rd of 565 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 56 | 26 |
| Matches rated | 166 | 54 |
Serve and return
| Barrena | Magadan | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 61.4% | 57.3% |
| Return pts won | 42.7% | 38.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 76.3% | 67.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setBarrena 64%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBarrena 70%set by set, before calibration; published 66% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeMagadan 25.5, Barrena 24.1small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchMagadan from hardgames projection only, not the win chance
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 75.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 76.3%
Decimal odds 3.92 / 1.22, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Comesana | Roncadelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 62.7102nd of 404 | 55.3351st of 404 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 36.385th of 404 | 37.255th of 404 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 49.4879th of 404 | 46.25231st of 404 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.99118th of 565 | 45.68305th of 565 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 47 | 53 |
| Matches rated | 274 | 131 |
Serve and return
| Comesana | Roncadelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 61.9% | 55.3% |
| Return pts won | 44.7% | 38.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 77.4% | 63.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setComesana 72%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setComesana 81%set by set, before calibration; published 76% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 71.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 66.5%
Decimal odds 1.42 / 2.82, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Rune | Fritz | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 66.8 | 72.43rd of 469 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 35.8 | 37.038th of 469 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 51.30 | 54.714th of 469 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 51.29 | 54.614th of 565 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 8 | 60 |
| Matches rated | 347 | 685 |
Serve and return
| Rune | Fritz | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 65.9% | 71.7% |
| Return pts won | 28.3% | 34.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 84.4% | 92.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setFritz 68%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setFritz 75%set by set, before calibration; published 71% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeFritz 29.0, Rune 23.5small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 74.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 71.4%
Decimal odds 1.29 / 3.22, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Hemery | Baez | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.5188th of 469 | 60.7222nd of 469 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 30.6369th of 469 | 36.846th of 469 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.01268th of 469 | 48.74123rd of 469 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.95287th of 565 | 48.84123rd of 565 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 45 | 58 |
| Matches rated | 473 | 353 |
Serve and return
| Hemery | Baez | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 59.3% | 65.8% |
| Return pts won | 34.2% | 40.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 72.1% | 84.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setBaez 71%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBaez 79%set by set, before calibration; published 75% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeBaez 25.9, Hemery 31.8small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchHemery from claygames projection only, not the win chance
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 62.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 64.6%
Decimal odds 1.46 / 2.66, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Humbert | Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 67.628th of 469 | 68.125th of 469 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 36.071st of 469 | 38.120th of 469 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 51.8133rd of 469 | 53.1215th of 469 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 51.5833rd of 565 | 53.0417th of 565 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 8 |
| Matches, 12 months | 55 | 40 |
| Matches rated | 488 | 421 |
Serve and return
| Humbert | Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 64.8% | 68.1% |
| Return pts won | 31.9% | 35.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 82.6% | 87.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setMusetti 60%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMusetti 65%set by set, before calibration; published 63% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeMusetti 24.7, Humbert 28.4small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 60.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 57.0%
Decimal odds 1.63 / 2.16, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Jacquet | Basavareddy | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 63.3114th of 469 | 63.7101st of 469 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.8127th of 469 | 36.267th of 469 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.01108th of 469 | 49.9277th of 469 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.92121st of 565 | 49.6881st of 565 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 39 | 45 |
| Matches rated | 262 | 171 |
Serve and return
| Jacquet | Basavareddy | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.8% | 65.4% |
| Return pts won | 34.6% | 37.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 79.2% | 83.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setBasavareddy 58%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBasavareddy 62%set by set, before calibration; published 60% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeBasavareddy 21.5, Jacquet 25.5small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →