ATP Tennis predictions Wed, Nov 11
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every ATP match. Methodology →
5 tour-level matches on this slate · 138–91 since Oct 20 (model V4) →
33 Challenger matches · Challenger: 237–156 since Oct 27 (model V4) →
Games
Stockholm
#49
Tabilo
#79
Sonego
Biggest factor: Return edge · Tabilo
#42
Norrie
#4
Fritz
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Fritz
#33
Humbert
#122
Gojo
Biggest factor: Return edge · Humbert
#11
Ruud
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Ruud
Rune
#97
Kecmanovic
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Rune
ATP Challenger 33 matches
Brisbane 4 Challenger
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Gorzny
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Kumstat
#242
Tomic
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Tomic
#129
O'Connell
Biggest factor: Return edge · O'Connell
#189
Bolt
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Bolt
Hersonissos 5 Challenger
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Searle
#232
Nagal
Biggest factor: Return edge · Nagal
#296
Monday
#292
Maestrelli
#284
Gill
Biggest factor: Return edge · Gill
Knoxville Challenger
#164
Kasnikowski
#119
Giron
Biggest factor: Return edge · Miyoshi
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Gray
#157
Mmoh
Biggest factor: Return edge · Mmoh
#176
Draxl
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Draxl
Lima 3 Challenger
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Bueno
Biggest factor: Return edge · Alcala Gurri
#218
Misolic
Sanchez Izquierdo
#187
Boyer
Biggest factor: Return edge · Boyer
Matsuyama Challenger
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Friend
#285
Schwaerzler
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Schwaerzler
#326
Hsu
Biggest factor: Return edge · Hsu
#257
Harris
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Harris
Monastir Challenger
#155
Feldbausch
Biggest factor: Return edge · Feldbausch
Mikrut
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Mikrut
#186
Moro Canas
#216
Dougaz
Biggest factor: Return edge · Moro Canas
#229
Kouame
Biggest factor: Return edge · Kouame
Orleans Challenger
#254
Martinez
#144
Rodionov
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Rodionov
#120
Altmaier
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Altmaier
#177
Gaston
Martineau
Biggest factor: Return edge · Gaston
#131
Tabur
#180
Piros
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Tabur
#226
Gentzsch
#54
Bonzi
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Bonzi
#64
Bellucci
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Bellucci
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 90.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 55.6%
Decimal odds 2.09 / 1.67, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Gorzny | Dellavedova | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.1201st of 468 | 53.8452nd of 468 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.5263rd of 468 | 28.2441st of 468 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.78226th of 468 | 41.02458th of 468 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.60246th of 564 | 40.79543rd of 564 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 18 | 21 |
| Matches rated | 24 | 100 |
Serve and return
| Gorzny | Dellavedova | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 69.2% | 56.9% |
| Return pts won | 43.1% | 30.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 89.0% | 66.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setGorzny 85%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setGorzny 94%set by set, before calibration; published 90% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 50.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 38.9%
Decimal odds 1.53 / 2.40, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Kasnikowski | Giron | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 62.2150th of 468 | 63.6104th of 468 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.8179th of 468 | 34.2160th of 468 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.03157th of 468 | 48.92114th of 468 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.93164th of 564 | 48.93119th of 564 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 2 |
| Matches, 12 months | 64 | 44 |
| Matches rated | 209 | 565 |
Serve and return
| Kasnikowski | Giron | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 64.2% | 64.2% |
| Return pts won | 35.8% | 35.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 81.6% | 81.5% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setKasnikowski 50%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setKasnikowski 50%set by set, before calibration; published 50% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeGiron 33.3, Kasnikowski 23.4small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 58.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 60.6%
Decimal odds 1.54 / 2.37, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Sanchez Jover | Bueno | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 55.0359th of 403 | 55.7342nd of 403 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 35.0149th of 403 | 35.5124th of 403 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 45.03290th of 403 | 45.63261st of 403 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.60371st of 564 | 45.09341st of 564 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 44 | 56 |
| Matches rated | 191 | 221 |
Serve and return
| Sanchez Jover | Bueno | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 55.7% | 57.7% |
| Return pts won | 42.3% | 44.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 64.0% | 68.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setBueno 57%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBueno 60%set by set, before calibration; published 58% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelBueno 9, Sanchez Jover 23counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 58.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 52.7%
Decimal odds 1.96 / 1.76, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Miyoshi | Shick | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 58.8301st of 468 | 58.3329th of 468 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.9231st of 468 | 31.3335th of 468 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 45.85276th of 468 | 44.77341st of 468 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.59310th of 564 | 44.50381st of 564 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 16 | 34 |
| Matches rated | 65 | 42 |
Serve and return
| Miyoshi | Shick | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.0% | 60.8% |
| Return pts won | 39.2% | 37.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 79.5% | 75.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMiyoshi 57%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMiyoshi 61%set by set, before calibration; published 59% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelShick 9, Miyoshi 23counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 63.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 63.1%
Decimal odds 2.53 / 1.48, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Kumstat | McCabe | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 63.1124th of 468 | 60.4234th of 468 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 30.8359th of 468 | 29.3413th of 468 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.95217th of 468 | 44.84334th of 468 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.76170th of 564 | 44.76365th of 564 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 2 |
| Matches, 12 months | 33 | 40 |
| Matches rated | 52 | 230 |
Serve and return
| Kumstat | McCabe | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 69.3% | 65.7% |
| Return pts won | 34.3% | 30.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 89.2% | 84.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setKumstat 61%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setKumstat 67%set by set, before calibration; published 64% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 60.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 55.7%
Decimal odds 1.68 / 2.11, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Jasika | Tomic | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 57.7351st of 468 | 61.8169th of 468 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.9233rd of 468 | 32.1283rd of 468 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 45.31306th of 468 | 46.97213th of 468 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.99350th of 564 | 46.66242nd of 564 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 32 | 46 |
| Matches rated | 278 | 692 |
Serve and return
| Jasika | Tomic | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 60.6% | 63.1% |
| Return pts won | 36.9% | 39.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 74.9% | 79.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setTomic 58%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setTomic 63%set by set, before calibration; published 60% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeTomic 34.1, Jasika 29.5small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 67.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 77.7%
Decimal odds 1.20 / 4.19, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Honda | Friend | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 58.3323rd of 468 | 61.1203rd of 468 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 31.6319th of 468 | 33.3211th of 468 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 44.96327th of 468 | 47.20197th of 468 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.60372nd of 564 | 46.94222nd of 564 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 17 | 39 |
| Matches rated | 40 | 58 |
Serve and return
| Honda | Friend | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 60.5% | 65.0% |
| Return pts won | 35.0% | 39.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 74.7% | 83.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setFriend 65%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setFriend 71%set by set, before calibration; published 68% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 80.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 77.7%
Decimal odds 1.20 / 4.17, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Uchida | Schwaerzler | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 57.9 | 61.5189th of 468 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 27.5 | 30.4376th of 468 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 42.69 | 45.91273rd of 468 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 42.26 | 45.97285th of 564 |
| Wins, last 10 | – | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | – | 57 |
| Matches rated | 416 | 144 |
Serve and return
| Uchida | Schwaerzler | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.1% | 70.6% |
| Return pts won | 29.4% | 37.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 77.8% | 90.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setSchwaerzler 75%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSchwaerzler 85%set by set, before calibration; published 80% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeSchwaerzler 20.8, Uchida 32.2small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchSchwaerzler from claygames projection only, not the win chance
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 66.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 70.7%
Decimal odds 1.32 / 3.19, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| McDonald | Hsu | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 55.5 | 58.0345th of 468 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 30.3 | 33.5203rd of 468 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 42.91 | 45.71282nd of 468 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 42.92479th of 564 | 45.27326th of 564 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 23 | 37 |
| Matches rated | 34 | 222 |
Serve and return
| McDonald | Hsu | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 59.0% | 63.0% |
| Return pts won | 37.0% | 41.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 71.5% | 79.5% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setHsu 63%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setHsu 70%set by set, before calibration; published 66% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeHsu 27.6, McDonald 18.8small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchMcDonald from claygames projection only, not the win chance
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 63.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 60.6%
Decimal odds 2.37 / 1.54, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| O'Connell | Holmgren | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 63.5106th of 468 | 63.895th of 468 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.4150th of 468 | 29.9396th of 468 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.94113th of 468 | 46.86222nd of 468 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.67129th of 564 | 46.76234th of 564 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 34 | 54 |
| Matches rated | 460 | 204 |
Serve and return
| O'Connell | Holmgren | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 68.1% | 64.7% |
| Return pts won | 35.3% | 31.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 87.7% | 82.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setO'Connell 61%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setO'Connell 66%set by set, before calibration; published 63% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeHolmgren 28.6, O'Connell 32.4small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 58.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 62.9%
Decimal odds 2.53 / 1.49, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Harris | Sun | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 60.5225th of 468 | 59.2283rd of 468 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.5261st of 468 | 31.5324th of 468 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.51242nd of 468 | 45.34302nd of 468 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.48257th of 564 | 44.99352nd of 564 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 48 | 55 |
| Matches rated | 321 | 207 |
Serve and return
| Harris | Sun | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.7% | 61.6% |
| Return pts won | 38.4% | 36.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 80.7% | 76.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setHarris 57%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setHarris 60%set by set, before calibration; published 58% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeSun 30.1, Harris 31.8small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchHarris from grassgames projection only, not the win chance
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 79.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 72.9%
Decimal odds 3.45 / 1.28, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Bolt | Ayeni | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 62.6133rd of 468 | 56.1 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.2280th of 468 | 29.5 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.39186th of 468 | 42.79 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.35189th of 564 | 42.51 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 2 |
| Matches, 12 months | 42 | 5 |
| Matches rated | 503 | 17 |
Serve and return
| Bolt | Ayeni | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 67.4% | 59.5% |
| Return pts won | 40.5% | 32.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 86.7% | 72.5% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setBolt 75%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBolt 84%set by set, before calibration; published 79% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 75.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 71.0%
Decimal odds 3.21 / 1.31, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Searle | Bertrand | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.5188th of 468 | 54.3442nd of 468 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 31.7311th of 468 | 33.4206th of 468 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.58235th of 468 | 43.86385th of 468 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.79231st of 564 | 43.30460th of 564 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 30 | 28 |
| Matches rated | 84 | 120 |
Serve and return
| Searle | Bertrand | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 64.7% | 58.2% |
| Return pts won | 41.8% | 35.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 82.5% | 69.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setSearle 71%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSearle 80%set by set, before calibration; published 75% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 66.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 70.0%
Decimal odds 3.10 / 1.33, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Nagal | Geerts | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 58.5318th of 468 | 59.6 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 35.780th of 468 | 31.0 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.06208th of 468 | 45.32 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.78232nd of 564 | 44.85 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 46 | – |
| Matches rated | 471 | 329 |
Serve and return
| Nagal | Geerts | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.5% | 58.6% |
| Return pts won | 41.4% | 37.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 78.6% | 70.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setNagal 63%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setNagal 69%set by set, before calibration; published 66% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeGeerts 31.8, Nagal 29.2small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchNagal from claygames projection only, not the win chance
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 50.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 58.9%
Decimal odds 1.58 / 2.26, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Monday | Maestrelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 63.7101st of 468 | 61.2196th of 468 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 28.7430th of 468 | 31.1347th of 468 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.19259th of 468 | 46.14264th of 468 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.81296th of 564 | 45.86292nd of 564 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 24 | 49 |
| Matches rated | 95 | 303 |
Serve and return
| Monday | Maestrelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 68.5% | 68.5% |
| Return pts won | 31.5% | 31.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 88.2% | 88.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMaestrelli 50%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMaestrelli 50%set by set, before calibration; published 50% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeMaestrelli 23.9, Monday 24.8small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 60.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 51.6%
Decimal odds 1.80 / 1.92, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Giunta | Gill | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 60.7220th of 468 | 60.5227th of 468 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 29.7403rd of 468 | 32.0291st of 468 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 45.19310th of 468 | 46.24257th of 468 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.09340th of 564 | 46.01284th of 564 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 26 | 45 |
| Matches rated | 53 | 114 |
Serve and return
| Giunta | Gill | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 64.2% | 66.8% |
| Return pts won | 33.2% | 35.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 81.6% | 85.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setGill 58%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setGill 62%set by set, before calibration; published 60% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 67.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 72.5%
Decimal odds 1.29 / 3.40, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Martinez | Rodionov | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 58.1333rd of 468 | 61.9163rd of 468 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 35.1114th of 468 | 35.2107th of 468 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.61233rd of 468 | 48.58134th of 468 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.53254th of 564 | 48.40144th of 564 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 53 | 53 |
| Matches rated | 552 | 531 |
Serve and return
| Martinez | Rodionov | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 58.0% | 62.3% |
| Return pts won | 37.7% | 42.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 69.2% | 78.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setRodionov 64%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setRodionov 71%set by set, before calibration; published 67% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeRodionov 27.5, Martinez 29.5small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchMartinez from claygames projection only, not the win chance
- Days since last event Not in the modelRodionov 9, Martinez 30counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 64.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 66.5%
Decimal odds 2.76 / 1.39, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Altmaier | Gadamauri | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 63.4110th of 468 | 60.4233rd of 468 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.6190th of 468 | 32.8242nd of 468 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.52137th of 468 | 46.58234th of 468 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.92120th of 564 | 46.21271st of 564 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 53 | 51 |
| Matches rated | 486 | 104 |
Serve and return
| Altmaier | Gadamauri | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 65.9% | 62.3% |
| Return pts won | 37.7% | 34.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 84.4% | 78.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setAltmaier 62%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setAltmaier 68%set by set, before calibration; published 64% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelGadamauri 30, Altmaier 2counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 77.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 70.2%
Decimal odds 1.33 / 3.14, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Pereira | Feldbausch | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 56.9380th of 468 | 57.6 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 30.6368th of 468 | 36.9 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 43.77390th of 468 | 47.23 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 43.50447th of 564 | 48.17155th of 564 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 35 | 45 |
| Matches rated | 108 | 120 |
Serve and return
| Pereira | Feldbausch | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 56.4% | 63.5% |
| Return pts won | 36.5% | 43.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 65.6% | 80.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setFeldbausch 73%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setFeldbausch 82%set by set, before calibration; published 77% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeFeldbausch 21.2, Pereira 22.4small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelFeldbausch 16, Pereira 23counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 64.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 55.3%
Decimal odds 2.05 / 1.66, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Mikrut | Coulibaly | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 60.6 | 58.9295th of 468 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.1 | 32.1282nd of 468 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.86 | 45.50293rd of 468 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.88 | 45.02348th of 564 |
| Wins, last 10 | – | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | – | 27 |
| Matches rated | 112 | 95 |
Serve and return
| Mikrut | Coulibaly | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 64.8% | 61.3% |
| Return pts won | 38.7% | 35.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 82.7% | 76.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMikrut 62%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMikrut 67%set by set, before calibration; published 64% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 56.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 41.9%
Decimal odds 1.62 / 2.25, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Tabilo | Sonego | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 65.850th of 468 | 65.849th of 468 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 35.684th of 468 | 34.3154th of 468 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.6847th of 468 | 50.0871st of 468 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 50.6749th of 564 | 49.8279th of 564 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 66 | 33 |
| Matches rated | 449 | 595 |
Serve and return
| Tabilo | Sonego | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 66.5% | 64.9% |
| Return pts won | 35.1% | 33.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 85.4% | 82.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setTabilo 55%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setTabilo 58%set by set, before calibration; published 56% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeSonego 31.5, Tabilo 29.4small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 50.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 44.0%
Decimal odds 1.65 / 2.10, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Vives Marcos | Clarke | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 59.5 | 57.8349th of 468 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.2 | 34.9123rd of 468 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.34 | 46.35251st of 468 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.76 | 46.33265th of 564 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 9 | 54 |
| Matches rated | 41 | 363 |
Serve and return
| Vives Marcos | Clarke | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 60.1% | 59.9% |
| Return pts won | 40.1% | 39.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 73.8% | 73.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setVives Marcos 51%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setVives Marcos 51%set by set, before calibration; published 51% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 62.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 61.9%
Decimal odds 2.45 / 1.51, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Gaston | Martineau | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 60.3240th of 468 | 61.9 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 35.0117th of 468 | 30.6 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.65170th of 468 | 46.25 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.58177th of 564 | 45.83 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 50 | – |
| Matches rated | 416 | 350 |
Serve and return
| Gaston | Martineau | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 65.4% | 62.2% |
| Return pts won | 37.8% | 34.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 83.5% | 78.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setGaston 60%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setGaston 65%set by set, before calibration; published 62% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeMartineau 27.8, Gaston 26.1small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchMartineau from grassgames projection only, not the win chance
- Days since last event Not in the modelMartineau 16, Gaston 16counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 75.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 72.7%
Decimal odds 1.30 / 3.47, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Norrie | Fritz | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 65.264th of 468 | 72.43rd of 468 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 37.431st of 468 | 36.944th of 468 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 51.2939th of 468 | 54.644th of 468 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 51.0842nd of 564 | 54.554th of 564 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 46 | 59 |
| Matches rated | 576 | 684 |
Serve and return
| Norrie | Fritz | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.0% | 70.1% |
| Return pts won | 29.9% | 37.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 79.5% | 90.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setFritz 72%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setFritz 81%set by set, before calibration; published 76% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeFritz 29.0, Norrie 31.2small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 51.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 59.1%
Decimal odds 2.24 / 1.55, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Moro Canas | Dougaz | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 60.5228th of 468 | 61.9165th of 468 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.6194th of 468 | 32.6256th of 468 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.06207th of 468 | 47.24196th of 468 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.40186th of 564 | 47.06216th of 564 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 57 | 13 |
| Matches rated | 267 | 218 |
Serve and return
| Moro Canas | Dougaz | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.6% | 63.3% |
| Return pts won | 36.7% | 36.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 80.6% | 80.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMoro Canas 51%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMoro Canas 52%set by set, before calibration; published 51% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeDougaz 29.6, Moro Canas 25.9small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 63.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 58.1%
Decimal odds 2.19 / 1.58, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Tabur | Piros | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 63.3115th of 468 | 60.3241st of 468 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.4152nd of 468 | 34.1169th of 468 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.82119th of 468 | 47.17200th of 468 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.64131st of 564 | 47.51180th of 564 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 56 | 62 |
| Matches rated | 224 | 387 |
Serve and return
| Tabur | Piros | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 64.8% | 61.4% |
| Return pts won | 38.6% | 35.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 82.5% | 76.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setTabur 61%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setTabur 66%set by set, before calibration; published 63% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgePiros 27.1, Tabur 26.8small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 70.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 66.2%
Decimal odds 2.80 / 1.43, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Humbert | Gojo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 67.728th of 468 | 65.166th of 468 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 35.972nd of 468 | 33.0227th of 468 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 51.8133rd of 468 | 49.09103rd of 468 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 51.5733rd of 564 | 48.88122nd of 564 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 54 | 43 |
| Matches rated | 487 | 388 |
Serve and return
| Humbert | Gojo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 69.9% | 64.5% |
| Return pts won | 35.5% | 30.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 90.0% | 82.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setHumbert 67%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setHumbert 75%set by set, before calibration; published 70% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeGojo 28.7, Humbert 28.4small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 90.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 86.7%
Decimal odds 6.92 / 1.06, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Alcala Gurri | De La Fuente | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 58.0255th of 403 | 53.4383rd of 403 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 39.315th of 403 | 32.2289th of 403 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 48.65116th of 403 | 42.81371st of 403 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.12159th of 564 | 42.30502nd of 564 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 46 | 22 |
| Matches rated | 103 | 66 |
Serve and return
| Alcala Gurri | De La Fuente | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 62.0% | 50.3% |
| Return pts won | 49.7% | 38.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 77.5% | 50.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setAlcala Gurri 85%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setAlcala Gurri 94%set by set, before calibration; published 90% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 56.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 65.8%
Decimal odds 2.69 / 1.40, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Gray | Planinsek | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 60.3 | 58.8 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 31.0 | 30.8 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 45.68 | 44.80 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.76 | 43.59 |
| Wins, last 10 | – | 2 |
| Matches, 12 months | – | 4 |
| Matches rated | 101 | 14 |
Serve and return
| Gray | Planinsek | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 64.8% | 63.3% |
| Return pts won | 36.7% | 35.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 82.7% | 80.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setGray 55%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setGray 57%set by set, before calibration; published 56% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 50.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 55.4%
Decimal odds 2.05 / 1.65, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Misolic | Sanchez Izquierdo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 60.5164th of 403 | 59.2 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 35.0151st of 403 | 36.6 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 47.73150th of 403 | 47.93 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.01218th of 564 | 47.43 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 14 | – |
| Matches rated | 255 | 299 |
Serve and return
| Misolic | Sanchez Izquierdo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 60.4% | 60.4% |
| Return pts won | 39.6% | 39.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 74.4% | 74.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMisolic 50%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMisolic 50%set by set, before calibration; published 50% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeSanchez Izquierdo 27.7, Misolic 25.3small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchMisolic from hardgames projection only, not the win chance
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 57.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 65.3%
Decimal odds 1.40 / 2.64, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Forejtek | Kouame | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.0 | 59.4274th of 468 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.4 | 34.6137th of 468 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.71 | 46.97215th of 468 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.43 | 46.82229th of 564 |
| Wins, last 10 | – | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | – | 42 |
| Matches rated | 256 | 48 |
Serve and return
| Forejtek | Kouame | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.2% | 64.2% |
| Return pts won | 35.8% | 37.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 78.0% | 81.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setKouame 57%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setKouame 60%set by set, before calibration; published 58% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeKouame 17.7, Forejtek 25.7small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 72.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 84.5%
Decimal odds 1.09 / 5.94, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Tabata | Boyer | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 58.3247th of 403 | 60.1182nd of 403 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 31.1342nd of 403 | 34.9154th of 403 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 44.71308th of 403 | 47.49167th of 403 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 43.46451st of 564 | 47.37187th of 564 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 12 | 38 |
| Matches rated | 22 | 213 |
Serve and return
| Tabata | Boyer | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 59.6% | 65.4% |
| Return pts won | 34.6% | 40.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 72.8% | 83.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setBoyer 69%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBoyer 77%set by set, before calibration; published 73% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 81.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 75.4%
Decimal odds 3.86 / 1.26, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Ruud | Shevchenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 69.214th of 468 | 62.5139th of 468 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 37.041st of 468 | 34.4143rd of 468 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 53.0818th of 468 | 48.45141st of 468 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 53.5211th of 564 | 48.33149th of 564 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 48 | 53 |
| Matches rated | 576 | 341 |
Serve and return
| Ruud | Shevchenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 70.1% | 61.2% |
| Return pts won | 38.8% | 29.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 90.2% | 76.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setRuud 77%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setRuud 86%set by set, before calibration; published 81% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeShevchenko 25.9, Ruud 27.9small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 63.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 55.0%
Decimal odds 2.03 / 1.66, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Mmoh | Milavsky | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 60.3237th of 468 | 61.1204th of 468 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 36.657th of 468 | 32.3268th of 468 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.47139th of 468 | 46.69229th of 468 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.14157th of 564 | 46.53255th of 564 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 45 | 37 |
| Matches rated | 469 | 70 |
Serve and return
| Mmoh | Milavsky | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.2% | 60.0% |
| Return pts won | 40.0% | 36.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 79.8% | 73.5% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMmoh 61%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMmoh 66%set by set, before calibration; published 63% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 75.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 78.9%
Decimal odds 1.18 / 4.42, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Gentzsch | Bonzi | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.0208th of 468 | 65.262nd of 468 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 31.8305th of 468 | 35.874th of 468 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.37249th of 468 | 50.5154th of 468 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.91226th of 564 | 50.4854th of 564 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 61 | 60 |
| Matches rated | 125 | 517 |
Serve and return
| Gentzsch | Bonzi | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.4% | 68.3% |
| Return pts won | 31.7% | 38.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 76.3% | 88.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setBonzi 72%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBonzi 81%set by set, before calibration; published 76% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeBonzi 30.4, Gentzsch 23.2small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchGentzsch from grassgames projection only, not the win chance
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 68.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 68.0%
Decimal odds 2.93 / 1.38, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Rune | Kecmanovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 66.9 | 63.4111th of 468 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 35.7 | 35.1112th of 468 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 51.29 | 49.23100th of 468 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 51.27 | 49.3897th of 564 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 7 | 50 |
| Matches rated | 346 | 498 |
Serve and return
| Rune | Kecmanovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 67.9% | 63.2% |
| Return pts won | 36.8% | 32.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 87.4% | 79.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setRune 65%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setRune 72%set by set, before calibration; published 68% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeKecmanovic 27.2, Rune 23.5small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 72.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 64.6%
Decimal odds 1.44 / 2.63, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Gueymard Wayenburg | Bellucci | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 62.2151st of 468 | 65.168th of 468 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.8241st of 468 | 35.587th of 468 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.49179th of 468 | 50.3058th of 468 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.98220th of 564 | 50.1464th of 564 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 8 |
| Matches, 12 months | 56 | 66 |
| Matches rated | 165 | 308 |
Serve and return
| Gueymard Wayenburg | Bellucci | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.2% | 68.1% |
| Return pts won | 31.9% | 37.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 78.0% | 87.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setBellucci 69%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBellucci 77%set by set, before calibration; published 72% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 69.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 71.0%
Decimal odds 1.30 / 3.18, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Nesterov | Draxl | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 57.7355th of 468 | 60.2245th of 468 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.6191st of 468 | 35.683rd of 468 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 45.65287th of 468 | 47.89162nd of 468 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.51316th of 564 | 47.65176th of 564 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 35 | 54 |
| Matches rated | 79 | 224 |
Serve and return
| Nesterov | Draxl | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 57.6% | 62.4% |
| Return pts won | 37.6% | 42.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 68.3% | 78.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setDraxl 66%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setDraxl 73%set by set, before calibration; published 69% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →