ATP Tennis predictions Sat, Nov 14
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every ATP match. Methodology →
1 tour-level match on this slate · 145–94 since Oct 20 (model V4) →
14 Challenger matches · model went 1–1 · Challenger: 291–190 since Oct 27 (model V4) →
Games
Stockholm
#60
Tirante
#4
Fritz
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Fritz
ATP Challenger 14 matches
Brisbane 4 Challenger
#124
Shang
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Shang
Hersonissos 5 Challenger
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Searle
#199
Henning
#274
Maestrelli
Biggest factor: Return edge · Henning
Knoxville Challenger
#281
Shelbayh
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Milavsky
#90
Zheng
#112
Chidekh
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Zheng
#90
Zheng
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Zheng
Lima 3 Challenger
#299
Roncadelli
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Alcala Gurri
Matsuyama Challenger
#239
Harris
#99
Sakamoto
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Sakamoto
#316
Hsu
Biggest factor: Return edge · Noguchi
Monastir Challenger
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Forejtek
#159
Feldbausch
Biggest factor: Return edge · Feldbausch
Orleans Challenger
#115
Altmaier
#79
Basavareddy
Biggest factor: Return edge · Basavareddy
#109
Virtanen
#231
Martinez
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Virtanen
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 78.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 72.4%
Decimal odds 1.29 / 3.39, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Harris | Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 60.8216th of 473 | 65.655th of 473 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.8244th of 473 | 33.7189th of 473 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.79227th of 473 | 49.6488th of 473 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.72239th of 566 | 49.3399th of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 50 | 64 |
| Matches rated | 323 | 148 |
Serve and return
| Harris | Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.7% | 69.5% |
| Return pts won | 30.5% | 38.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 77.0% | 89.5% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setSakamoto 74%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSakamoto 83%set by set, before calibration; published 78% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeSakamoto 20.4, Harris 31.8small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchHarris from grassgames projection only, not the win chance
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 51.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 48.7%
Decimal odds 1.91 / 1.81, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Holmgren | Gorzny | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 64.092nd of 473 | 61.3195th of 473 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 30.4376th of 473 | 32.4266th of 473 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.21199th of 473 | 46.83224th of 473 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.08211th of 566 | 46.66243rd of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 56 | 20 |
| Matches rated | 206 | 26 |
Serve and return
| Holmgren | Gorzny | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 66.8% | 67.1% |
| Return pts won | 32.9% | 33.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 85.8% | 86.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setGorzny 51%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setGorzny 51%set by set, before calibration; published 51% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeGorzny 22.8, Holmgren 28.6small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 82.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 83.4%
Decimal odds 1.12 / 5.64, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Langmo | Shang | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 59.5271st of 473 | 63.7101st of 473 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 29.8403rd of 473 | 33.9175th of 473 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 44.66343rd of 473 | 48.80120th of 473 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.53376th of 566 | 48.80124th of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 41 | 20 |
| Matches rated | 207 | 201 |
Serve and return
| Langmo | Shang | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.0% | 70.2% |
| Return pts won | 29.8% | 39.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 75.7% | 90.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setShang 77%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setShang 87%set by set, before calibration; published 82% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 59.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 60.4%
Decimal odds 2.35 / 1.54, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Searle | Ribecai | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.8171st of 473 | 56.9385th of 473 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 31.8302nd of 473 | 35.587th of 473 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.79226th of 473 | 46.21259th of 473 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.93224th of 566 | 46.30265th of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 32 | 59 |
| Matches rated | 86 | 68 |
Serve and return
| Searle | Ribecai | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.9% | 60.6% |
| Return pts won | 39.4% | 37.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 79.2% | 74.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setSearle 58%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSearle 61%set by set, before calibration; published 59% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 57.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 46.5%
Decimal odds 1.74 / 2.00, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Henning | Maestrelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 60.7221st of 473 | 61.5184th of 473 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.5139th of 473 | 31.4327th of 473 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.62173rd of 473 | 46.47243rd of 473 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.19199th of 566 | 46.17274th of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 35 | 51 |
| Matches rated | 62 | 305 |
Serve and return
| Henning | Maestrelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 64.8% | 63.1% |
| Return pts won | 36.9% | 35.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 82.7% | 79.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setHenning 56%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setHenning 59%set by set, before calibration; published 57% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 54.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 64.2%
Decimal odds 1.45 / 2.60, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Moeller | Forejtek | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 58.3 | 61.6 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.9 | 32.4 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.62 | 46.96 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.63 | 46.64 |
| Matches rated | 143 | 258 |
Serve and return
| Moeller | Forejtek | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.3% | 62.4% |
| Return pts won | 37.6% | 38.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 76.2% | 78.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setForejtek 54%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setForejtek 55%set by set, before calibration; published 54% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeForejtek 25.7, Moeller 27.8small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchMoeller from claygames projection only, not the win chance
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 80.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 81.5%
Decimal odds 1.16 / 5.12, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Tirante | Fritz | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 66.540th of 473 | 72.63rd of 473 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.8183rd of 473 | 37.235th of 473 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.1667th of 473 | 54.894th of 473 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 50.2460th of 566 | 54.784th of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 55 | 61 |
| Matches rated | 390 | 686 |
Serve and return
| Tirante | Fritz | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 65.1% | 73.9% |
| Return pts won | 26.1% | 34.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 83.1% | 94.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setFritz 76%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setFritz 85%set by set, before calibration; published 80% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeFritz 29.0, Tirante 25.6small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 56.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 59.7%
Decimal odds 2.30 / 1.55, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Feldbausch | Vives Marcos | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 57.9348th of 473 | 61.0 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 36.943rd of 473 | 33.3 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.38187th of 473 | 47.14 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.08159th of 566 | 46.42261st of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 48 | 11 |
| Matches rated | 123 | 43 |
Serve and return
| Feldbausch | Vives Marcos | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.1% | 59.6% |
| Return pts won | 40.4% | 38.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 75.9% | 72.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setFeldbausch 55%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setFeldbausch 58%set by set, before calibration; published 56% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 65.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 61.4%
Decimal odds 1.52 / 2.42, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Altmaier | Basavareddy | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 63.6102nd of 473 | 63.993rd of 473 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.7194th of 473 | 36.268th of 473 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.66128th of 473 | 50.0572nd of 473 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.03115th of 566 | 49.8279th of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 55 | 47 |
| Matches rated | 488 | 173 |
Serve and return
| Altmaier | Basavareddy | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.7% | 66.7% |
| Return pts won | 33.3% | 37.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 79.0% | 85.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setBasavareddy 63%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBasavareddy 69%set by set, before calibration; published 66% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeBasavareddy 21.5, Altmaier 28.2small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 71.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 77.8%
Decimal odds 4.20 / 1.20, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Virtanen | Martinez | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 64.680th of 473 | 58.8298th of 473 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.0169th of 473 | 35.1113th of 473 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.2898th of 473 | 46.95213th of 473 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.22109th of 566 | 46.79230th of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 53 | 56 |
| Matches rated | 308 | 555 |
Serve and return
| Virtanen | Martinez | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 65.3% | 59.9% |
| Return pts won | 40.1% | 34.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 83.4% | 73.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setVirtanen 68%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setVirtanen 75%set by set, before calibration; published 71% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeMartinez 29.6, Virtanen 25.4small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchMartinez from claygames projection only, not the win chance
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 51.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 50.0%
Decimal odds 1.03 / 1.03, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Milavsky | Shelbayh | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.3193rd of 473 | 58.6316th of 473 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.6259th of 473 | 34.3157th of 473 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.95212th of 473 | 46.43246th of 473 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.78232nd of 566 | 46.06282nd of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 38 | 48 |
| Matches rated | 71 | 240 |
Serve and return
| Milavsky | Shelbayh | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.5% | 62.2% |
| Return pts won | 37.8% | 37.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 78.6% | 78.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMilavsky 51%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMilavsky 52%set by set, before calibration; published 51% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 53.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 46.5%
Decimal odds 1.73 / 1.99, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Zheng | Chidekh | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 62.6134th of 473 | 61.6181st of 473 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 36.944th of 473 | 37.528th of 473 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.7585th of 473 | 49.5691st of 473 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.5490th of 566 | 49.15112th of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 8 |
| Matches, 12 months | 42 | 68 |
| Matches rated | 111 | 184 |
Serve and return
| Zheng | Chidekh | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.4% | 60.5% |
| Return pts won | 39.5% | 38.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 76.3% | 74.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setZheng 53%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setZheng 54%set by set, before calibration; published 54% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeChidekh 25.4, Zheng 22.8small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 70.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 72.5%
Decimal odds 3.35 / 1.27, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Alcala Gurri | Roncadelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 58.2250th of 404 | 55.4349th of 404 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 39.514th of 404 | 37.254th of 404 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 48.82106th of 404 | 46.32229th of 404 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.29150th of 566 | 45.76299th of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 48 | 54 |
| Matches rated | 105 | 132 |
Serve and return
| Alcala Gurri | Roncadelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 57.2% | 52.2% |
| Return pts won | 47.8% | 42.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 67.4% | 55.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setAlcala Gurri 67%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setAlcala Gurri 75%set by set, before calibration; published 71% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 73.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 61.3%
Decimal odds 2.41 / 1.52, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Zheng | Kozlov | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 62.7133rd of 473 | 58.2 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 36.846th of 473 | 36.4 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.7685th of 473 | 47.31 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.5590th of 566 | 47.16 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 41 | – |
| Matches rated | 110 | 466 |
Serve and return
| Zheng | Kozlov | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.5% | 56.6% |
| Return pts won | 43.4% | 37.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 78.6% | 66.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setZheng 70%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setZheng 78%set by set, before calibration; published 74% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeKozlov 28.8, Zheng 22.8small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 53.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 48.8%
Decimal odds 1.91 / 1.82, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Hsu | Noguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 58.0339th of 473 | 58.3 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.8182nd of 473 | 34.4 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 45.94272nd of 473 | 46.34 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.51316th of 566 | 46.12 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 39 | – |
| Matches rated | 224 | 276 |
Serve and return
| Hsu | Noguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 59.0% | 59.7% |
| Return pts won | 40.3% | 41.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 71.4% | 73.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setNoguchi 53%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setNoguchi 54%set by set, before calibration; published 53% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeNoguchi 27.9, Hsu 27.6small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →