ATP Tennis predictions Sun, Nov 8
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every ATP match. Methodology →
6 tour-level matches on this slate · 127–84 since Oct 20 (model V4) →
34 Challenger matches · Challenger: 136–95 since Oct 27 (model V4) →
Games
Paris
#2
Alcaraz
#15
Shelton
Biggest factor: Return edge · Alcaraz
Stockholm
#141
Gojo
#62
Basilashvili
Biggest factor: Return edge · Basilashvili
#78
Samuel
#98
Mannarino
Biggest factor: Return edge · Samuel
#56
Fearnley
Biggest factor: Return edge · Fearnley
#91
Cerundolo
#289
Ymer
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Cerundolo
#33
Munar
#63
Tirante
Biggest factor: Return edge · Munar
ATP Challenger 34 matches
Bratislava Challenger
#156
Rodionov
#89
Kym
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Kym
Brisbane 4 Challenger
Biggest factor: Return edge · Shepp
Biggest factor: Return edge · Zhu
Biggest factor: Return edge · Hazawa
#298
Tu
Biggest factor: Return edge · Tu
Charlottesville Challenger
#190
Mayo
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Mayo
Costa do Sauipe Challenger
#149
Ugo Carabelli
#80
Seyboth Wild
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Seyboth Wild
Hersonissos 5 Challenger
Ilkel
Biggest factor: Return edge · Loge
#306
Krutykh
Biggest factor: Return edge · Krutykh
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Reco
Andreev
Biggest factor: Return edge · Andreev
Biggest factor: Return edge · Carboni
Matsuyama Challenger
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Matsuda
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Hassan
Biggest factor: Return edge · Dev
Biggest factor: Return edge · Ichikawa
Biggest factor: Return edge · Tokuda
Biggest factor: Return edge · Takahashi
Biggest factor: Return edge · Jones
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Imai
Monastir Challenger
Janvier
Biggest factor: Return edge · Janvier
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Barsukov
Orleans Challenger
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Catry
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Sanchez Quilez
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Gadamauri
#194
Butvilas
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Butvilas
#304
Grenier
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Pavlovic
Biggest factor: Return edge · Krumich
#186
Nardi
Biggest factor: Return edge · Nardi
#313
Hemery
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Hemery
Biggest factor: Return edge · Poullain
#280
Gombos
Biggest factor: Return edge · Rolland De Ravel
Taipei Challenger
#157
Watanuki
Biggest factor: Return edge · Watanuki
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 67.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 70.4%
Decimal odds 1.31 / 3.11, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Mochizuki | Matsuda | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 52.1468th of 472 | 56.1409th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 29.2416th of 472 | 29.4410th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 40.65464th of 472 | 42.78431st of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 40.00559th of 570 | 42.49502nd of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 20 | 24 |
| Matches rated | 92 | 47 |
Serve and return
| Mochizuki | Matsuda | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 58.2% | 62.5% |
| Return pts won | 37.5% | 41.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 69.7% | 78.5% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMatsuda 64%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMatsuda 71%set by set, before calibration; published 67% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelMatsuda 13, Mochizuki 188counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 79.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 78.5%
Decimal odds 1.17 / 4.26, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Ogura | Hassan | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 52.9 | 58.6314th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 28.0 | 31.1350th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 40.42 | 44.82335th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 39.78 | 44.77367th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 8 | 33 |
| Matches rated | 47 | 398 |
Serve and return
| Ogura | Hassan | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 57.3% | 65.3% |
| Return pts won | 34.7% | 42.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 67.8% | 83.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setHassan 75%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setHassan 84%set by set, before calibration; published 80% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelHassan 20, Ogura 265counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 58.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 73.1%
Decimal odds 3.39 / 1.25, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Dev | Sinha | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 53.4459th of 472 | 53.0 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 27.8448th of 472 | 26.2 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 40.60465th of 472 | 39.58 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 40.29554th of 570 | 39.27 |
| Wins, last 10 | 2 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 11 | 9 |
| Matches rated | 53 | 35 |
Serve and return
| Dev | Sinha | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.8% | 60.7% |
| Return pts won | 39.3% | 37.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 79.1% | 75.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setDev 57%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setDev 60%set by set, before calibration; published 58% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelSinha 174, Dev 125counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 53.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 65.8%
Decimal odds 1.39 / 2.68, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Jones | Shepp | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 55.2 | 55.2 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 28.1 | 28.9 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 41.65 | 42.03 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 41.47 | 41.84 |
| Wins, last 10 | 2 | 1 |
| Matches, 12 months | 5 | 5 |
| Matches rated | 24 | 10 |
Serve and return
| Jones | Shepp | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.8% | 62.6% |
| Return pts won | 37.4% | 38.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 77.2% | 78.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setShepp 53%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setShepp 54%set by set, before calibration; published 53% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelShepp 76, Jones 349counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 65.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 40.8%
Decimal odds 2.23 / 1.54, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Matsuda | Ichikawa | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 54.4444th of 472 | 55.9415th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 28.0446th of 472 | 30.4376th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 41.20459th of 472 | 43.16416th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 40.89547th of 570 | 42.86484th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 0 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 15 | 11 |
| Matches rated | 73 | 48 |
Serve and return
| Matsuda | Ichikawa | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 59.5% | 63.4% |
| Return pts won | 36.6% | 40.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 72.6% | 80.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setIchikawa 63%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setIchikawa 69%set by set, before calibration; published 66% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelIchikawa 90, Matsuda 55counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 67.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 50.9%
Decimal odds 1.82 / 1.89, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Sakellaridis | Tokuda | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 55.8 | 58.1339th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 29.2 | 31.5323rd of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 42.52 | 44.77339th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 43.21 | 44.50384th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 2 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 6 | 13 |
| Matches rated | 28 | 121 |
Serve and return
| Sakellaridis | Tokuda | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 59.9% | 64.4% |
| Return pts won | 35.6% | 40.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 73.4% | 82.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setTokuda 65%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setTokuda 72%set by set, before calibration; published 68% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelTokuda 188, Sakellaridis 20counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 69.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 67.1%
Decimal odds 1.34 / 2.73, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Fancutt | Zhu | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 57.3 | 57.2375th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 27.6 | 31.6312th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 42.44 | 44.44357th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 42.19 | 44.16411th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 1 | 1 |
| Matches, 12 months | 5 | 19 |
| Matches rated | 113 | 191 |
Serve and return
| Fancutt | Zhu | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 60.3% | 65.2% |
| Return pts won | 34.8% | 39.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 74.3% | 83.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setZhu 66%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setZhu 73%set by set, before calibration; published 69% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelZhu 40, Fancutt 55counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 56.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 40.3%
Decimal odds 2.25 / 1.52, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Palan | Hazawa | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 59.0293rd of 472 | 57.4373rd of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 27.5452nd of 472 | 30.7365th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 43.22413th of 472 | 44.05377th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 42.75489th of 570 | 43.81432nd of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 2 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 19 | 12 |
| Matches rated | 115 | 58 |
Serve and return
| Palan | Hazawa | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.8% | 65.4% |
| Return pts won | 34.6% | 36.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 80.9% | 83.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setHazawa 55%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setHazawa 58%set by set, before calibration; published 57% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelHazawa 188, Palan 20counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 55.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 37.2%
Decimal odds 1.45 / 2.45, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Takahashi | Saitoh | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 56.2 | 55.9 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 29.6 | 28.2 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 42.89 | 42.03 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 42.61 | 41.80 |
| Wins, last 10 | – | 2 |
| Matches, 12 months | – | 0 |
| Matches rated | 242 | 25 |
Serve and return
| Takahashi | Saitoh | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.2% | 61.8% |
| Return pts won | 38.2% | 36.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 79.7% | 77.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setTakahashi 54%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setTakahashi 57%set by set, before calibration; published 55% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelSaitoh 370, Takahashi 14counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 75.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 67.7%
Decimal odds 1.35 / 2.83, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Katayama | Jones | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 54.7 | 57.6352nd of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 26.3 | 30.1388th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 40.50 | 43.88383rd of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 40.27 | 43.48451st of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 0 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 0 | 29 |
| Matches rated | 22 | 95 |
Serve and return
| Katayama | Jones | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 60.1% | 66.9% |
| Return pts won | 33.1% | 39.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 73.8% | 85.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setJones 71%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setJones 80%set by set, before calibration; published 76% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelJones 62, Katayama 370counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 68.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 52.6%
Decimal odds 1.75 / 1.94, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Bittoun Kouzmine | Imai | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 55.8421st of 472 | 58.4 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 28.9426th of 472 | 31.0 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 42.38435th of 472 | 44.68 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 42.11514th of 570 | 44.39 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 22 | 3 |
| Matches rated | 69 | 85 |
Serve and return
| Bittoun Kouzmine | Imai | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 60.4% | 65.0% |
| Return pts won | 35.0% | 39.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 74.4% | 83.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setImai 65%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setImai 72%set by set, before calibration; published 68% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelImai 13, Bittoun Kouzmine 55counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 75.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 86.4%
Decimal odds 1.07 / 6.78, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Ryan Ziegann | Tu | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 57.9 | 60.8219th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 26.6 | 31.4330th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 42.23 | 46.07267th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 41.82 | 45.80298th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 1 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 1 | 26 |
| Matches rated | 10 | 215 |
Serve and return
| Ryan Ziegann | Tu | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.0% | 69.1% |
| Return pts won | 30.9% | 38.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 77.7% | 88.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setTu 72%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setTu 81%set by set, before calibration; published 76% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelTu 41, Ryan Ziegann 62counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 60.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 61.6%
Decimal odds 1.51 / 2.42, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Kumstat | Watanuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 63.0127th of 472 | 62.0163rd of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 31.1351st of 472 | 34.9120th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.01208th of 472 | 48.46139th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.86167th of 570 | 48.11157th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 33 | 29 |
| Matches rated | 51 | 375 |
Serve and return
| Kumstat | Watanuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.6% | 66.1% |
| Return pts won | 33.9% | 36.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 80.5% | 84.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setWatanuki 58%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setWatanuki 63%set by set, before calibration; published 60% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 79.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 79.5%
Decimal odds 1.15 / 4.45, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Ilkel | Loge | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 56.7 | 56.4 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 28.5 | 35.9 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 42.63 | 46.13 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 42.29 | 46.00 |
| Wins, last 10 | – | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | – | 8 |
| Matches rated | 378 | 15 |
Serve and return
| Ilkel | Loge | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 55.6% | 63.4% |
| Return pts won | 36.6% | 44.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 63.7% | 80.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setLoge 75%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setLoge 84%set by set, before calibration; published 80% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelLoge 97, Ilkel 63counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 70.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 63.9%
Decimal odds 1.43 / 2.53, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Wehnelt | Krutykh | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 57.8 | 59.4 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 29.7 | 33.5 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 43.77 | 46.42 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.38394th of 570 | 45.73306th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 2 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 11 | 18 |
| Matches rated | 76 | 216 |
Serve and return
| Wehnelt | Krutykh | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 59.9% | 65.2% |
| Return pts won | 34.8% | 40.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 73.4% | 83.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setKrutykh 67%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setKrutykh 75%set by set, before calibration; published 71% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelKrutykh 34, Wehnelt 27counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 51.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 39.1%
Decimal odds 1.35 / 2.10, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Catry | Houkes | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 58.8300th of 472 | 57.3 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 31.4333rd of 472 | 32.4 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 45.08320th of 472 | 44.87 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.71370th of 570 | 45.73305th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 17 | 32 |
| Matches rated | 46 | 138 |
Serve and return
| Catry | Houkes | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.9% | 61.5% |
| Return pts won | 38.5% | 38.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 77.4% | 76.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setCatry 51%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setCatry 52%set by set, before calibration; published 52% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelHoukes 20, Catry 13counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 72.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 62.6%
Decimal odds 2.16 / 1.29, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Sanchez Quilez | Gobat | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 56.2406th of 472 | 53.4 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.1230th of 472 | 30.3 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 44.64344th of 472 | 41.82 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.04347th of 570 | 41.62 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 42 | 1 |
| Matches rated | 75 | 21 |
Serve and return
| Sanchez Quilez | Gobat | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.5% | 55.8% |
| Return pts won | 44.2% | 38.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 76.6% | 64.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setSanchez Quilez 69%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSanchez Quilez 77%set by set, before calibration; published 72% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelGobat 258, Sanchez Quilez 20counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 96.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 50.0%
Decimal odds 1.03 / 1.03, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Janvier | Nedunchezhiyan | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 59.1 | 53.5 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 30.2 | 19.3 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 44.63 | 36.38 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.01 | 35.58 |
| Matches rated | 579 | 60 |
Serve and return
| Janvier | Nedunchezhiyan | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 74.8% | 56.9% |
| Return pts won | 43.1% | 25.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 94.8% | 66.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setJanvier 93%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setJanvier 99%set by set, before calibration; published 97% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeNedunchezhiyan 38.1, Janvier 30.1small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchJanvier from grassgames projection only, not the win chance
- Days since last event Not in the modelNedunchezhiyan 181, Janvier 28counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 75.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 72.9%
Decimal odds 1.13 / 3.04, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Ursu | Gadamauri | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 53.9452nd of 472 | 59.9251st of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.0292nd of 472 | 32.5266th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 42.96422nd of 472 | 46.21257th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 42.61497th of 570 | 45.92287th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 20 | 51 |
| Matches rated | 122 | 102 |
Serve and return
| Ursu | Gadamauri | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 57.0% | 63.5% |
| Return pts won | 36.5% | 43.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 67.0% | 80.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setGadamauri 71%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setGadamauri 80%set by set, before calibration; published 75% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelGadamauri 27, Ursu 48counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 61.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 63.3%
Decimal odds 1.48 / 2.55, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Gojo | Basilashvili | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 64.776th of 472 | 65.458th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.6256th of 472 | 35.873rd of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.67127th of 472 | 50.6151st of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.47141st of 570 | 50.2362nd of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 42 | 48 |
| Matches rated | 385 | 649 |
Serve and return
| Gojo | Basilashvili | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 64.1% | 66.9% |
| Return pts won | 33.1% | 35.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 81.4% | 86.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawQualifying
- Chance to win a setBasilashvili 59%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBasilashvili 63%set by set, before calibration; published 61% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeBasilashvili 34.7, Gojo 28.7small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 52.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 34.2%
Decimal odds 1.39 / 2.67, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Reco | Boitan | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 58.2 | 57.4 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 29.7 | 30.0 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 43.94 | 43.69 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 43.36 | 43.57 |
| Wins, last 10 | 0 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 2 | 9 |
| Matches rated | 15 | 97 |
Serve and return
| Reco | Boitan | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.7% | 63.1% |
| Return pts won | 36.9% | 36.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 80.8% | 79.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setReco 52%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setReco 53%set by set, before calibration; published 52% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelBoitan 62, Reco 41counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 50.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 70.3%
Decimal odds 1.16 / 2.75, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Sheyngezikht | Ehrenschneider | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 50.4 | 54.4 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 27.1 | 23.3 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 38.79 | 38.83 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 39.69 | 39.57 |
| Wins, last 10 | 0 | 1 |
| Matches, 12 months | 0 | 3 |
| Matches rated | 20 | 12 |
Serve and return
| Sheyngezikht | Ehrenschneider | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.7% | 62.8% |
| Return pts won | 37.2% | 37.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 78.9% | 79.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setEhrenschneider 50%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setEhrenschneider 50%set by set, before calibration; published 50% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelEhrenschneider 307, Sheyngezikht 573counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 87.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 88.1%
Decimal odds 1.03 / 7.65, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Obradovic | Butvilas | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 55.6 | 61.3192nd of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 29.8 | 34.1167th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 42.70 | 47.72167th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 41.57 | 47.28194th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 9 | 59 |
| Matches rated | 22 | 178 |
Serve and return
| Obradovic | Butvilas | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 57.0% | 67.9% |
| Return pts won | 32.1% | 43.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 67.0% | 87.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setButvilas 82%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setButvilas 91%set by set, before calibration; published 87% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelButvilas 6, Obradovic 69counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 74.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 76.1%
Decimal odds 3.82 / 1.20, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Andreev | Taguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 57.4 | 58.6315th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.5 | 26.0465th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 45.44 | 42.29439th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.52 | 41.95518th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 8 | 13 |
| Matches rated | 240 | 23 |
Serve and return
| Andreev | Taguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 67.1% | 60.6% |
| Return pts won | 39.4% | 32.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 86.3% | 74.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setAndreev 71%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setAndreev 79%set by set, before calibration; published 75% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelTaguchi 174, Andreev 48counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 69.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 57.7%
Decimal odds 2.17 / 1.59, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Carboni | Raquillet | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 54.2447th of 472 | 52.2 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 31.9294th of 472 | 29.1 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 43.06420th of 472 | 40.67 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 43.12472nd of 570 | 40.20556th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 1 |
| Matches, 12 months | 29 | 10 |
| Matches rated | 65 | 41 |
Serve and return
| Carboni | Raquillet | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 60.6% | 55.8% |
| Return pts won | 44.2% | 39.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 74.8% | 64.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setCarboni 66%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setCarboni 73%set by set, before calibration; published 69% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelRaquillet 55, Carboni 27counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 64.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 50.9%
Decimal odds 1.90 / 1.83, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Samuel | Mannarino | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 63.4113th of 472 | 63.6104th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 37.136th of 472 | 35.872nd of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.2762nd of 472 | 49.7287th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.8478th of 570 | 49.4598th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 61 | 56 |
| Matches rated | 94 | 1017 |
Serve and return
| Samuel | Mannarino | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.6% | 59.9% |
| Return pts won | 40.1% | 36.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 80.5% | 73.5% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawQualifying
- Chance to win a setSamuel 62%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSamuel 68%set by set, before calibration; published 65% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeMannarino 38.4, Samuel 24.2small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 72.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 69.5%
Decimal odds 1.34 / 3.06, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Shevchenko | Fearnley | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 62.1155th of 472 | 62.6133rd of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.4208th of 472 | 38.514th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.74164th of 472 | 50.5653rd of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.71174th of 570 | 50.4156th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 52 | 53 |
| Matches rated | 338 | 164 |
Serve and return
| Shevchenko | Fearnley | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 59.3% | 65.0% |
| Return pts won | 35.0% | 40.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 72.1% | 83.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawQualifying
- Chance to win a setFearnley 69%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setFearnley 77%set by set, before calibration; published 72% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeFearnley 25.3, Shevchenko 25.9small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelFearnley 18, Shevchenko 6counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 67.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 66.0%
Decimal odds 1.41 / 2.74, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Rodionov | Kym | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.7180th of 472 | 65.554th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.8126th of 472 | 34.9124th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.24148th of 472 | 50.2066th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.12156th of 570 | 49.5989th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 8 |
| Matches, 12 months | 51 | 41 |
| Matches rated | 529 | 169 |
Serve and return
| Rodionov | Kym | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.2% | 66.8% |
| Return pts won | 33.2% | 37.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 78.0% | 85.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setKym 65%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setKym 72%set by set, before calibration; published 68% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeKym 23.7, Rodionov 27.5small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 52.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 39.4%
Decimal odds 1.35 / 2.08, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Barsukov | Walters | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 58.6 | 58.0 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 29.2 | 29.3 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 43.94 | 43.65 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 43.87 | 43.01 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 1 |
| Matches, 12 months | 6 | 3 |
| Matches rated | 13 | 15 |
Serve and return
| Barsukov | Walters | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 64.8% | 64.3% |
| Return pts won | 35.7% | 35.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 82.7% | 81.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setBarsukov 52%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBarsukov 53%set by set, before calibration; published 52% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelWalters 125, Barsukov 286counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 52.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 53.6%
Decimal odds 1.54 / 1.78, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Grenier | Pavlovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 59.6269th of 472 | 61.0204th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.6258th of 472 | 31.0355th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.08266th of 472 | 46.03270th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.74304th of 570 | 45.77301st of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 28 | 45 |
| Matches rated | 507 | 126 |
Serve and return
| Grenier | Pavlovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.4% | 64.0% |
| Return pts won | 36.0% | 36.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 80.2% | 81.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setPavlovic 52%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setPavlovic 53%set by set, before calibration; published 53% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgePavlovic 26.6, Grenier 30.6small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchPavlovic from claygames projection only, not the win chance
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 83.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 51.6%
Decimal odds 1.10 / 1.03, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Krumich | Vandermeersch | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 58.5322nd of 472 | 54.8 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.5200th of 472 | 28.6 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.02272nd of 472 | 41.67 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.30268th of 570 | 41.36 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 1 |
| Matches, 12 months | 62 | 8 |
| Matches rated | 160 | 24 |
Serve and return
| Krumich | Vandermeersch | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 66.0% | 56.8% |
| Return pts won | 43.2% | 34.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 84.6% | 66.5% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setKrumich 78%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setKrumich 88%set by set, before calibration; published 83% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelVandermeersch 118, Krumich 6counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- -3.5
- Latest
- -3.5
Alcaraz -3.5 at -115
- Model
- 76.6%
- First line
- 75.3%
- Latest
- 75.3%
Moneyline Shelton B. +286 / Alcaraz C. -374 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · 7:33 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 7:33 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Alcaraz | Shelton | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 70.67th of 472 | 72.05th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 44.01st of 472 | 35.2103rd of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 57.272nd of 472 | 53.6111th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 57.202nd of 570 | 53.2915th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 49 | 64 |
| Matches rated | 418 | 295 |
Serve and return
| Alcaraz | Shelton | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 71.5% | 64.0% |
| Return pts won | 36.0% | 28.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 91.7% | 81.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setAlcaraz 72%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setAlcaraz 81%set by set, before calibration; published 77% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeShelton 24.1, Alcaraz 23.5small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 75.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 74.0%
Decimal odds 3.65 / 1.28, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Cerundolo | Ymer | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 63.4111th of 472 | 60.4231st of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.6137th of 472 | 31.8307th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.99109th of 472 | 46.09265th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.5491st of 570 | 45.91289th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 2 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 63 | 37 |
| Matches rated | 403 | 673 |
Serve and return
| Cerundolo | Ymer | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 67.5% | 60.7% |
| Return pts won | 39.3% | 32.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 86.9% | 75.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setCerundolo 71%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setCerundolo 80%set by set, before calibration; published 76% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeYmer 30.6, Cerundolo 25.0small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchYmer from grassgames projection only, not the win chance
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 83.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 51.6%
Decimal odds 1.03 / 1.10, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Donski | Nardi | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 58.9 | 61.0210th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 27.7 | 34.3154th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 43.29 | 47.65170th of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 43.31 | 47.37186th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | – | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | – | 31 |
| Matches rated | 95 | 303 |
Serve and return
| Donski | Nardi | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 59.8% | 69.4% |
| Return pts won | 30.6% | 40.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 73.1% | 89.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setNardi 79%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setNardi 88%set by set, before calibration; published 84% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeNardi 23.3, Donski 28.3small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchNardi from claygames projection only, not the win chance
- Days since last event Not in the modelNardi 27, Donski 7counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 62.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 60.4%
Decimal odds 2.38 / 1.56, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Munar | Tirante | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 64.678th of 472 | 65.947th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 39.49th of 472 | 34.2160th of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 51.9930th of 472 | 50.0572nd of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 51.6333rd of 570 | 50.1763rd of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 36 | 53 |
| Matches rated | 567 | 387 |
Serve and return
| Munar | Tirante | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 65.5% | 62.3% |
| Return pts won | 37.7% | 34.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 83.7% | 78.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setMunar 60%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMunar 65%set by set, before calibration; published 63% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeTirante 25.6, Munar 29.5small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelTirante 4, Munar 20counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 57.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 45.6%
Decimal odds 1.31 / 1.10, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Ghazouani Durand | Hemery | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 56.5398th of 472 | 61.1197th of 472 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 31.9300th of 472 | 30.0392nd of 472 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 44.17375th of 472 | 45.54293rd of 472 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 43.42458th of 570 | 45.61313th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 11 | 44 |
| Matches rated | 24 | 470 |
Serve and return
| Ghazouani Durand | Hemery | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.0% | 63.9% |
| Return pts won | 36.1% | 38.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 77.6% | 81.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setHemery 56%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setHemery 59%set by set, before calibration; published 58% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelHemery 20, Ghazouani Durand 41counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 78.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 80.9%
Decimal odds 4.33 / 1.02, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Poullain | Delage | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 58.3331st of 472 | 58.6 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.5143rd of 472 | 26.6 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.38248th of 472 | 42.60 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.91291st of 570 | 43.11 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 33 | 4 |
| Matches rated | 142 | 14 |
Serve and return
| Poullain | Delage | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 67.2% | 59.6% |
| Return pts won | 40.4% | 32.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 86.4% | 72.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setPoullain 74%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setPoullain 83%set by set, before calibration; published 78% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelDelage 146, Poullain 6counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 60.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 62.7%
Decimal odds 2.49 / 1.48, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Mayo | Kozlov | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 62.2152nd of 472 | 57.7 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 33.1229th of 472 | 36.0 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.66169th of 472 | 46.85 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.30190th of 570 | 46.74 |
| Wins, last 10 | 8 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 40 | – |
| Matches rated | 205 | 462 |
Serve and return
| Mayo | Kozlov | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.4% | 59.8% |
| Return pts won | 40.2% | 37.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 78.3% | 73.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMayo 59%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMayo 63%set by set, before calibration; published 61% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeKozlov 28.8, Mayo 23.5small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 59.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 54.8%
Decimal odds 1.70 / 2.06, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Ugo Carabelli | Seyboth Wild | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, clay% | 61.7126th of 402 | 65.342nd of 402 |
| Return pts won, clay% | 36.866th of 402 | 35.4130th of 402 |
| Clay rating% pts vs avg | 49.2590th of 402 | 50.3855th of 402 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.30149th of 570 | 49.8280th of 570 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 9 |
| Matches, 12 months | 49 | 54 |
| Matches rated | 416 | 431 |
Serve and return
| Ugo Carabelli | Seyboth Wild | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, clay | 62.4% | 64.8% |
| Return pts won | 35.2% | 37.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 78.3% | 82.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceClayratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setSeyboth Wild 58%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSeyboth Wild 62%set by set, before calibration; published 60% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeSeyboth Wild 26.7, Ugo Carabelli 27.4small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchUgo Carabelli from hardgames projection only, not the win chance
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Head to head
| Gombos | Rolland De Ravel | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 60.1248th of 472 | 58.9 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.1284th of 472 | 32.4 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.11264th of 472 | 45.64 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.09280th of 570 | 45.17 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 37 | 8 |
| Matches rated | 774 | 13 |
Serve and return
| Gombos | Rolland De Ravel | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.5% | 62.3% |
| Return pts won | 37.7% | 38.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 76.7% | 78.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setRolland De Ravel 53%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setRolland De Ravel 54%set by set, before calibration; published 53% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelRolland De Ravel 20, Gombos 6counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →