ATP Tennis predictions Thu, Oct 29
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every ATP match. Methodology →
12 tour-level matches on this slate · 66–44 since Oct 20 (model V4) →
18 Challenger matches · Challenger: 16–12 since Oct 27 (model V4) →
Games
Basel
Jodar
Vacherot
Set at line Vacherot 27.6% · model 31.5%
Fils
Michelsen
Set at line Michelsen 34.1% · model 38.4%
Shapovalov
Fritz
Set at line Shapovalov 29.7% · model 32.7%
Lehecka
Altmaier
Set at line Lehecka 83.5% · model 83.8%
Struff
Djokovic
Set at line Djokovic 75.2% · model 77.8%
Kym
Shelton
Set at line Shelton 72.5% · model 74.0%
Vienna
Darderi
Set at line Darderi 20.4% · model 26.3%
Medvedev
Norrie
Set at line Norrie 18.9% · model 22.8%
Alcaraz
Basilashvili
Set at line Alcaraz 85.1% · model 93.9%
Musetti
Fery
Set at line Fery 28.0% · model 28.8%
Griekspoor
Zverev
Set at line Zverev 76.4% · model 81.8%
Berrettini
Cobolli
Set at line Berrettini 51.6% · model 56.4%
ATP Challenger 18 matches
Brest Challenger
Blanchet
Damm
Samuel
Tabur
Set at line Samuel 58.4% · model 68.8%
Kouame
Gaston
Set at line Gaston 49.7% · model 53.3%
Travaglia
Djere
Set at line Travaglia 30.9% · model 32.1%
Guayaquil Challenger
Dellien
Pacheco Mendez
Set at line Pacheco Mendez 38.7% · model 40.7%
Dedura-Palomero
Set at line Dedura-Palomero 74.0% · model 75.6%
Midon
Galan
Ningbo Challenger
Set at line Bar Biryukov 35.6% · model 41.0%
Broady
Set at line Honda 22.1% · model 32.7%
Schoolkate
Set at line Schoolkate 62.8% · model 72.3%
Seoul Challenger
Shimabukuro
Set at line Friend 46.0% · model 53.1%
Daniel
Atmane
Set at line Atmane 59.3% · model 68.1%
Hong
Kachmazov
Sioux Falls Challenger
Brooksby
Set at line Kozlov 36.4% · model 38.9%
Royer
Draxl
Set at line Ostapenkov 23.1% · model 26.2%
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 54.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 54.8%
Decimal odds 1.70 / 2.06, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 53.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 46.0%
Decimal odds 1.73 / 2.03, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 68.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 59.3%
Decimal odds 1.57 / 2.29, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 55.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 41.7%
Decimal odds 1.60 / 2.24, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 59.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 64.4%
Decimal odds 2.62 / 1.45, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 67.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 77.9%
Decimal odds 4.22 / 1.20, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 72.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 62.8%
Decimal odds 1.49 / 2.52, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- -3.5
- Latest
- -3.5
Jodar -3.5 at -112
- Model
- 68.5%
- First line
- 72.4%
- Latest
- 72.4%
Moneyline Vacherot V. +246 / Jodar R. -316 (vig removed)
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 72.4%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Tue 8:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- -3.5
- First line
- -4.5
- Latest
- -4.5
Paul -4.5 at +101
- Model
- 73.7%
- First line
- 75.3%
- Latest
- 79.6%
Moneyline Paul T. -504 / Darderi L. +368 (vig removed) · opened 75.3%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 75.3%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Tue 8:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- -3.5
- First line
- -4.5
- Latest
- -4.5
Medvedev -4.5 at +106
- Model
- 77.2%
- First line
- 81.1%
- Latest
- 81.1%
Moneyline Norrie C. +406 / Medvedev D. -567 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · 8:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 72.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 72.0%
Decimal odds 1.30 / 3.34, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- -1.5
- First line
- -3.0
- Latest
- -3.0
Fils -3.0 at +101
- Model
- 61.6%
- First line
- 65.9%
- Latest
- 65.9%
Moneyline Michelsen A. +180 / Fils A. -224 (vig removed)
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 65.9%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Tue 8:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- -5.5
- First line
- -5.5
- Latest
- -5.5
Alcaraz -5.5 at +108
- Model
- 93.9%
- First line
- 85.1%
- Latest
- 85.1%
Moneyline Basilashvili N. +539 / Alcaraz C. -820 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / BetRivers · 8:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / BetRivers · as of 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 68.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 58.3%
Decimal odds 2.24 / 1.60, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- -3.5
- Latest
- -3.5
Fritz -3.5 at +110
- Model
- 67.3%
- First line
- 70.3%
- Latest
- 70.3%
Moneyline Fritz T. -280 / Shapovalov D. +221 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / BetRivers · 8:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / BetRivers · as of 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- -3.5
- First line
- -4.0
- Latest
- -4.0
Lehecka -4.0 at +107
- Model
- 83.8%
- First line
- 82.5%
- Latest
- 83.5%
Moneyline Altmaier D. +478 / Lehecka J. -700 (vig removed) · opened 82.5%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 82.5%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Tue 8:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 59.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 61.3%
Decimal odds 2.39 / 1.51, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 75.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 74.0%
Decimal odds 1.25 / 3.55, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- -3.5
- First line
- -3.5
- Latest
- -3.5
Musetti -3.5 at -121
- Model
- 71.2%
- First line
- 72.0%
- Latest
- 72.0%
Moneyline Fery A. +241 / Musetti L. -309 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · 8:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 62.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 64.1%
Decimal odds 2.57 / 1.44, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- -3.5
- First line
- -3.0
- Latest
- -3.0
Zverev -3.0 at -124
- Model
- 81.8%
- First line
- 76.4%
- Latest
- 76.4%
Moneyline Zverev A. -402 / Griekspoor T. +304 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · 8:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- -3.5
- First line
- -3.5
- Latest
- -3.5
Djokovic -3.5 at -102
- Model
- 77.8%
- First line
- 75.2%
- Latest
- 75.2%
Moneyline Djokovic N. -372 / Struff J. +285 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · 8:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 61.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 63.6%
Decimal odds 1.46 / 2.55, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 72.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 64.6%
Decimal odds 1.42 / 2.59, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 53.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 49.7%
Decimal odds 1.83 / 1.81, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- -2.5
- Latest
- -2.5
Shelton -2.5 at -125
- Model
- 74.0%
- First line
- 74.9%
- Latest
- 72.5%
Moneyline Shelton B. -316 / Kym J. +247 (vig removed) · opened 74.9%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 74.9%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Tue 8:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 73.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 66.7%
Decimal odds 2.79 / 1.39, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- -1.5
- First line
- -0.5
- Latest
- -0.5
Berrettini -0.5 at +100
- Model
- 56.4%
- First line
- 51.6%
- Latest
- 51.6%
Moneyline Cobolli F. -103 / Berrettini M. -118 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · 8:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 67.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 69.1%
Decimal odds 1.34 / 2.99, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 73.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 76.9%
Decimal odds 1.20 / 4.00, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →