ATP Tennis predictions Wed, Oct 28
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every ATP match. Methodology →
11 tour-level matches on this slate · 60–39 since Oct 20 (model V4) →
19 Challenger matches · Challenger: 6–3 since Oct 27 (model V4) →
Games
Basel
Struff
Hanfmann
Set at line Hanfmann 46.7% · model 54.5%
Shapovalov
Bertola
Set at line Shapovalov 71.8% · model 85.9%
Ruud
Set at line Borges 35.5% · model 39.8%
Humbert
Djokovic
Set at line Humbert 30.4% · model 34.3%
Hijikata
Fritz
Set at line Fritz 85.9% · model 88.6%
Rune
Hurkacz
Set at line Rune 37.4% · model 40.3%
Vienna
Nakashima
Griekspoor
Set at line Griekspoor 33.5% · model 33.8%
Tiafoe
Musetti
Set at line Musetti 47.9% · model 56.3%
Mannarino
Mensik
Set at line Mensik 79.6% · model 83.2%
Basilashvili
Rodionov
Set at line Basilashvili 56.7% · model 69.4%
De Minaur
Tien
Set at line De Minaur 50.4% · model 53.8%
ATP Challenger 19 matches
Brest Challenger
Samuel
Set at line Samuel 66.3% · model 76.2%
Prizmic
Gojo
Set at line Prizmic 60.1% · model 71.6%
Tabur
Budkov Kjaer
Cina
Set at line Cina 45.9% · model 46.7%
Virtanen
Set at line Virtanen 81.4% · model 81.9%
Glinka
Gaston
Set at line Glinka 36.2% · model 44.0%
Diallo
Maestrelli
Set at line Diallo 72.3% · model 75.9%
Guayaquil Challenger
Set at line Magadan 35.8% · model 68.0%
Ningbo Challenger
Mayot
Set at line Mayot 86.8% · model 89.6%
Hsu
Set at line Shimizu 45.5% · model 50.4%
Broom
Set at line Broom 66.3% · model 89.2%
Set at line Alkaya 64.3% · model 66.2%
Seoul Challenger
Set at line Harris 87.1% · model 92.7%
Yunchaokete
Set at line Chung 13.0% · model 14.2%
Vukic
Harris
Set at line Harris 35.2% · model 44.0%
Sakamoto
Zhang
Set at line Sakamoto 64.9% · model 65.6%
Sioux Falls Challenger
Wolf
Kasnikowski
Mayo
Set at line Kasnikowski 60.1% · model 60.8%
Set at line Rottgering 76.3% · model 84.6%
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 92.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 87.1%
Decimal odds 1.08 / 7.29, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 85.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 87.0%
Decimal odds 7.24 / 1.08, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 56.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 64.8%
Decimal odds 2.65 / 1.44, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 89.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 86.8%
Decimal odds 7.08 / 1.08, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 50.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 45.5%
Decimal odds 2.05 / 1.71, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 65.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 64.9%
Decimal odds 2.66 / 1.44, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 89.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 66.3%
Decimal odds 1.41 / 2.77, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 66.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 64.3%
Decimal odds 2.61 / 1.45, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 76.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 66.3%
Decimal odds 2.76 / 1.40, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- -0.5
- First line
- +0.5
- Latest
- +1.0
Hanfmann +1.0 at -110 · opened +0.5
- Model
- 54.5%
- First line
- 46.7%
- Latest
- 46.7%
Moneyline Hanfmann Y. +104 / Struff J. -127 (vig removed)
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 46.7%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Mon 8:34 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 71.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 60.1%
Decimal odds 2.33 / 1.55, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- -1.5
- First line
- -2.5
- Latest
- -2.5
Nakashima -2.5 at -109
- Model
- 66.2%
- First line
- 67.5%
- Latest
- 66.5%
Moneyline Griekspoor T. +185 / Nakashima B. -231 (vig removed) · opened 67.5%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 67.5%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Mon 8:34 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 76.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 71.2%
Decimal odds 1.31 / 3.24, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- -4.5
- First line
- -3.0
- Latest
- -3.0
Shapovalov -3.0 at -114
- Model
- 85.9%
- First line
- 72.7%
- Latest
- 71.8%
Moneyline Bertola R. +238 / Shapovalov D. -303 (vig removed) · opened 72.7%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 72.7%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Mon 8:34 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- -1.5
- First line
- -3.0
- Latest
- -3.0
Ruud -3.0 at +102
- Model
- 60.2%
- First line
- 67.6%
- Latest
- 64.5%
Moneyline Borges N. +169 / Ruud C. -209 (vig removed) · opened 67.6%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 67.6%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Mon 8:34 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 53.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 54.1%
Decimal odds 2.03 / 1.72, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- -0.5
- First line
- +0.5
- Latest
- +1.0
Musetti +1.0 at -108 · opened +0.5
- Model
- 56.3%
- First line
- 49.7%
- Latest
- 47.9%
Moneyline Musetti L. -101 / Tiafoe F. -121 (vig removed) · opened 49.7%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 49.7%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Mon 8:34 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- -3.0
- Latest
- -3.0
Djokovic -3.0 at -103
- Model
- 65.7%
- First line
- 69.6%
- Latest
- 69.6%
Moneyline Djokovic N. -270 / Humbert U. +214 (vig removed)
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 69.6%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Mon 8:34 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 81.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 81.4%
Decimal odds 5.02 / 1.15, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 68.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 35.8%
Decimal odds 1.42 / 2.55, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- -4.5
- First line
- -4.0
- Latest
- -4.0
Mensik -4.0 at -110
- Model
- 83.2%
- First line
- 79.6%
- Latest
- 79.6%
Moneyline Mensik J. -504 / Mannarino A. +369 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · 8:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- -2.0
- Latest
- -1.5
Basilashvili -1.5 at -110 · opened -2.0
- Model
- 69.4%
- First line
- 56.7%
- Latest
- 56.7%
Moneyline Rodionov J. +120 / Basilashvili N. -147 (vig removed)
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 56.7%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Mon 8:34 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 68.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 61.6%
Decimal odds 1.49 / 2.39, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 60.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 60.1%
Decimal odds 2.30 / 1.53, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- -4.5
- First line
- -4.0
- Latest
- -4.0
Fritz -4.0 at -118
- Model
- 88.6%
- First line
- 87.3%
- Latest
- 85.9%
Moneyline Fritz T. -900 / Hijikata R. +579 (vig removed) · opened 87.3%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 87.3%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Mon 8:34 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 56.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 63.9%
Decimal odds 1.46 / 2.58, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- -1.5
- First line
- -2.0
- Latest
- -2.0
Hurkacz -2.0 at -115
- Model
- 59.7%
- First line
- 62.6%
- Latest
- 62.6%
Moneyline Hurkacz H. -191 / Rune H. +155 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · 8:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- -0.5
- First line
- -0.5
- Latest
- -0.5
De Minaur -0.5 at -105
- Model
- 53.8%
- First line
- 53.0%
- Latest
- 50.4%
Moneyline Tien L. -108 / De Minaur A. -112 (vig removed) · opened 53.0%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 53.0%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Mon 8:34 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 75.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 72.3%
Decimal odds 3.37 / 1.29, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 84.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 76.3%
Decimal odds 1.21 / 3.89, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →