ATP Tennis predictions Sun, Nov 15
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every ATP match. Methodology →
2 tour-level matches on this slate · 146–94 since Oct 20 (model V4) →
26 Challenger matches · Challenger: 296–197 since Oct 27 (model V4) →
Games
Masters Cup ATP
#17
Jodar
#3
Zverev
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Zverev
#8
Fils
#14
Shelton
Biggest factor: Return edge · Fils
ATP Challenger 26 matches
Brisbane 4 Challenger
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Holmgren
Helsinki Challenger
#205
Coppejans
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Coppejans
Biggest factor: Return edge · Gulin
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Vrbensky
#244
Nagal
Biggest factor: Return edge · Nagal
#332
Echargui
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Echargui
#392
Durasovic
Agwi
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Agwi
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Wehnelt
Hersonissos 5 Challenger
#209
Henning
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Henning
Knoxville Challenger
#111
Chidekh
#272
Shelbayh
Biggest factor: Return edge · Chidekh
Kobe Challenger
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Imai
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Kumasaka
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Takahashi
Biggest factor: Return edge · Bittoun Kouzmine
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Chung
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Ichikawa
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Hassan
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Jones
Biggest factor: Return edge · Shiraishi
Matsuyama Challenger
#300
Hsu
#237
Harris
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Harris
Monastir Challenger
#152
Feldbausch
Biggest factor: Return edge · Feldbausch
Orleans Challenger
#75
Basavareddy
#97
Virtanen
Biggest factor: Return edge · Basavareddy
Sydney Challenger
Biggest factor: Return edge · Moriya
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Nakagawa
Biggest factor: Return edge · Isomura
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Marinkov
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 54.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 76.1%
Decimal odds 1.21 / 3.86, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Ryan Ziegann | Moriya | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 57.5 | 56.1 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 28.0 | 32.1 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 42.74 | 44.12 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 42.34 | 43.89 |
| Wins, last 10 | 1 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 2 | – |
| Matches rated | 13 | 730 |
Serve and return
| Ryan Ziegann | Moriya | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 60.9% | 62.0% |
| Return pts won | 38.0% | 39.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 75.4% | 77.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMoriya 54%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMoriya 56%set by set, before calibration; published 55% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 67.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 49.6%
Decimal odds 1.84 / 1.87, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Imai | Matsuda | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 59.1 | 56.4399th of 474 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 31.1 | 29.4417th of 474 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 45.07 | 42.89428th of 474 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.78 | 42.59494th of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 2 |
| Matches, 12 months | 4 | 24 |
| Matches rated | 88 | 50 |
Serve and return
| Imai | Matsuda | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 65.2% | 60.8% |
| Return pts won | 39.2% | 34.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 83.3% | 75.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setImai 64%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setImai 71%set by set, before calibration; published 67% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 51.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 55.9%
Decimal odds 2.10 / 1.66, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Kumasaka | Zhukov | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 53.8460th of 474 | 53.3 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 31.0354th of 474 | 31.0 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 42.40438th of 474 | 42.16 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 42.13510th of 566 | 41.83 |
| Wins, last 10 | 1 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 18 | 4 |
| Matches rated | 57 | 37 |
Serve and return
| Kumasaka | Zhukov | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 58.2% | 57.8% |
| Return pts won | 42.2% | 41.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 69.8% | 68.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setKumasaka 52%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setKumasaka 52%set by set, before calibration; published 52% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelZhukov 300, Kumasaka 6counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 69.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 53.6%
Decimal odds 2.00 / 1.73, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Nakagawa | Jones | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 58.7 | 54.7 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 28.7 | 27.6 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 43.69 | 41.14 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 43.40 | 40.97 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 2 |
| Matches, 12 months | 9 | 3 |
| Matches rated | 147 | 25 |
Serve and return
| Nakagawa | Jones | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 66.7% | 61.6% |
| Return pts won | 38.4% | 33.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 85.6% | 76.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setNakagawa 66%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setNakagawa 74%set by set, before calibration; published 70% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelJones 356, Nakagawa 230counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 67.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 72.9%
Decimal odds 3.45 / 1.28, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Holmgren | Langmo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 64.385th of 474 | 59.9255th of 474 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 30.4377th of 474 | 29.8407th of 474 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.34190th of 474 | 44.85336th of 474 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.20198th of 566 | 44.72365th of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 57 | 42 |
| Matches rated | 207 | 208 |
Serve and return
| Holmgren | Langmo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 69.7% | 65.0% |
| Return pts won | 35.0% | 30.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 89.7% | 83.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setHolmgren 65%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setHolmgren 71%set by set, before calibration; published 68% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 62.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 58.9%
Decimal odds 1.57 / 2.25, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Ogura | Takahashi | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 53.6 | 55.9 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 28.1 | 29.3 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 40.86 | 42.61 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 40.28 | 42.33 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 6 | – |
| Matches rated | 49 | 243 |
Serve and return
| Ogura | Takahashi | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 59.8% | 62.9% |
| Return pts won | 37.1% | 40.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 73.1% | 79.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setTakahashi 60%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setTakahashi 65%set by set, before calibration; published 63% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelTakahashi 8, Ogura 272counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 73.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 84.4%
Decimal odds 1.10 / 5.94, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Sinha | Bittoun Kouzmine | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 52.7 | 55.7426th of 474 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 25.7 | 28.7433rd of 474 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 39.24 | 42.22444th of 474 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 38.98 | 41.96517th of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 9 | 22 |
| Matches rated | 36 | 70 |
Serve and return
| Sinha | Bittoun Kouzmine | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 59.5% | 65.5% |
| Return pts won | 34.5% | 40.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 72.6% | 83.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setBittoun Kouzmine 69%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBittoun Kouzmine 78%set by set, before calibration; published 73% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelBittoun Kouzmine 62, Sinha 181counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 51.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 55.0%
Decimal odds 1.70 / 2.08, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Hsu | Harris | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 58.5319th of 474 | 60.8216th of 474 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 34.0175th of 474 | 32.8245th of 474 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.20261st of 474 | 46.79225th of 474 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.77300th of 566 | 46.73237th of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 40 | 50 |
| Matches rated | 225 | 323 |
Serve and return
| Hsu | Harris | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.1% | 61.5% |
| Return pts won | 38.5% | 38.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 75.8% | 76.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setHarris 51%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setHarris 52%set by set, before calibration; published 52% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeHarris 31.8, Hsu 27.6small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchHarris from grassgames projection only, not the win chance
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 51.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 25.9%
Decimal odds 1.26 / 3.61, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Isomura | Shepp | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 55.9418th of 474 | 55.9 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 30.1389th of 474 | 29.6 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 42.98424th of 474 | 42.77 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 42.77485th of 566 | 42.56 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 1 |
| Matches, 12 months | 19 | 6 |
| Matches rated | 69 | 13 |
Serve and return
| Isomura | Shepp | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.7% | 61.3% |
| Return pts won | 38.7% | 38.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 77.1% | 76.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setIsomura 51%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setIsomura 52%set by set, before calibration; published 52% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelShepp 6, Isomura 97counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 56.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 66.0%
Decimal odds 2.72 / 1.40, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Marinkov | Rai | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 56.7391st of 474 | 54.7 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 27.9451st of 474 | 28.2 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 42.29442nd of 474 | 41.47 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 42.07513th of 566 | 41.05 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 21 | 3 |
| Matches rated | 49 | 66 |
Serve and return
| Marinkov | Rai | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.9% | 62.3% |
| Return pts won | 37.7% | 36.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 81.1% | 78.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setMarinkov 56%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMarinkov 58%set by set, before calibration; published 57% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelRai 356, Marinkov 167counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 61.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 61.0%
Decimal odds 2.38 / 1.52, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Chung | Tokuda | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 60.3 | 57.9349th of 474 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.5 | 31.7306th of 474 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.44 | 44.81340th of 474 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.07 | 44.58373rd of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | – | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | – | 13 |
| Matches rated | 14 | 124 |
Serve and return
| Chung | Tokuda | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.8% | 60.8% |
| Return pts won | 39.2% | 36.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 80.9% | 75.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setChung 60%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setChung 65%set by set, before calibration; published 62% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelTokuda 6, Chung 20counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 52.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 53.6%
Decimal odds 2.00 / 1.73, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Ichikawa | Kikuchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 55.6431st of 474 | 55.0 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 29.9401st of 474 | 30.0 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 42.74431st of 474 | 42.48 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 42.44498th of 566 | 42.23 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 10 | 8 |
| Matches rated | 49 | 26 |
Serve and return
| Ichikawa | Kikuchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.1% | 60.6% |
| Return pts won | 39.4% | 38.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 75.9% | 74.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setIchikawa 52%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setIchikawa 53%set by set, before calibration; published 52% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelKikuchi 62, Ichikawa 97counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 66.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 74.3%
Decimal odds 1.25 / 3.61, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Yamasaki | Hassan | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 53.9 | 58.3331st of 474 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 30.1 | 30.7369th of 474 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 42.00 | 44.47355th of 474 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 41.58 | 44.48383rd of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 2 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 4 | 32 |
| Matches rated | 37 | 399 |
Serve and return
| Yamasaki | Hassan | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 58.8% | 62.8% |
| Return pts won | 37.2% | 41.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 71.0% | 79.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setHassan 64%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setHassan 70%set by set, before calibration; published 66% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelHassan 27, Yamasaki 314counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 74.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 70.0%
Decimal odds 1.33 / 3.11, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Mochizuki | Jones | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 52.0471st of 474 | 57.3374th of 474 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 28.8431st of 474 | 29.8404th of 474 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 40.42469th of 474 | 43.57404th of 474 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 39.80557th of 566 | 43.18468th of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 19 | 27 |
| Matches rated | 93 | 96 |
Serve and return
| Mochizuki | Jones | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 57.7% | 64.0% |
| Return pts won | 36.0% | 42.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 68.7% | 81.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setJones 71%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setJones 79%set by set, before calibration; published 74% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelJones 69, Mochizuki 195counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 79.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 71.8%
Decimal odds 3.29 / 1.29, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Shiraishi | Kusuhara | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 55.3436th of 474 | 53.0469th of 474 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 29.8405th of 474 | 24.2473rd of 474 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 42.55434th of 474 | 38.58474th of 474 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 42.27504th of 566 | 38.30564th of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 2 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 15 | 10 |
| Matches rated | 45 | 16 |
Serve and return
| Shiraishi | Kusuhara | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 66.6% | 58.7% |
| Return pts won | 41.3% | 33.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 85.6% | 70.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setShiraishi 75%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setShiraishi 84%set by set, before calibration; published 79% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 88.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 80.9%
Decimal odds 1.14 / 4.84, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Oetzbach | Coppejans | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 52.8 | 59.4275th of 474 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 29.5 | 34.9124th of 474 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 41.12 | 47.14202nd of 474 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 41.05 | 47.14205th of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 6 | 56 |
| Matches rated | 44 | 675 |
Serve and return
| Oetzbach | Coppejans | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 53.4% | 64.4% |
| Return pts won | 35.6% | 46.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 58.4% | 81.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setCoppejans 83%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setCoppejans 92%set by set, before calibration; published 88% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelCoppejans 13, Oetzbach 167counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 70.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 44.2%
Decimal odds 1.65 / 2.08, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Gulin | Paldanius | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 58.7311th of 474 | 57.2 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.9240th of 474 | 29.0 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 45.77281st of 474 | 43.09 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.56250th of 566 | 42.55 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 0 |
| Matches, 12 months | 33 | 5 |
| Matches rated | 71 | 17 |
Serve and return
| Gulin | Paldanius | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 65.2% | 59.9% |
| Return pts won | 40.1% | 34.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 83.3% | 73.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setGulin 67%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setGulin 75%set by set, before calibration; published 71% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelPaldanius 6, Gulin 27counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 58.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 54.3%
Decimal odds 1.70 / 2.02, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Ribecai | Henning | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 57.2376th of 474 | 60.3237th of 474 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 35.876th of 474 | 34.7129th of 474 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.50245th of 474 | 47.53178th of 474 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.53254th of 566 | 47.12209th of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 60 | 36 |
| Matches rated | 69 | 63 |
Serve and return
| Ribecai | Henning | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 58.0% | 60.1% |
| Return pts won | 39.9% | 42.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 69.3% | 73.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setHenning 57%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setHenning 61%set by set, before calibration; published 59% after tempering toward 50%
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 61.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 62.0%
Decimal odds 2.45 / 1.50, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Feldbausch | Moeller | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 58.1336th of 474 | 58.6 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 37.333rd of 474 | 35.2 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.68171st of 474 | 46.91 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.21152nd of 566 | 46.80 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 49 | – |
| Matches rated | 124 | 144 |
Serve and return
| Feldbausch | Moeller | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 59.4% | 56.7% |
| Return pts won | 43.3% | 40.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 72.4% | 66.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setFeldbausch 59%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setFeldbausch 64%set by set, before calibration; published 61% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeMoeller 27.8, Feldbausch 21.2small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 56.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 55.4%
Decimal odds 1.66 / 2.06, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Ursu | Vrbensky | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 54.0455th of 474 | 55.5 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 31.8304th of 474 | 31.7 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 42.86429th of 474 | 43.63 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 42.52496th of 566 | 43.25 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | – |
| Matches, 12 months | 20 | – |
| Matches rated | 123 | 216 |
Serve and return
| Ursu | Vrbensky | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 57.7% | 59.3% |
| Return pts won | 40.7% | 42.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 68.6% | 72.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setVrbensky 55%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setVrbensky 58%set by set, before calibration; published 56% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelVrbensky 13, Ursu 55counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 81.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 80.4%
Decimal odds 1.14 / 4.68, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Gima | Nagal | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 55.9419th of 474 | 58.0343rd of 474 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 29.1423rd of 474 | 35.778th of 474 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 42.48436th of 474 | 46.87221st of 474 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 42.87481st of 566 | 46.64244th of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 2 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 14 | 48 |
| Matches rated | 92 | 473 |
Serve and return
| Gima | Nagal | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 55.6% | 64.0% |
| Return pts won | 36.0% | 44.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 63.8% | 81.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setNagal 76%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setNagal 86%set by set, before calibration; published 81% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelNagal 6, Gima 55counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 71.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 78.9%
Decimal odds 4.38 / 1.17, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Echargui | Sperle | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 59.0290th of 474 | 55.0 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 32.2284th of 474 | 29.4 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 45.56294th of 474 | 42.24 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.17332nd of 566 | 42.58 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 42 | 9 |
| Matches rated | 242 | 44 |
Serve and return
| Echargui | Sperle | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.8% | 58.4% |
| Return pts won | 41.6% | 36.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 80.9% | 70.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setEchargui 68%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setEchargui 76%set by set, before calibration; published 71% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelSperle 48, Echargui 6counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- -2.5
- Latest
- -2.5
Zverev -2.5 at -113
- Model
- 65.3%
- First line
- 68.1%
- Latest
- 68.1%
Moneyline Zverev A. -249 / Jodar R. +199 (vig removed)
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 67.5%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Fri 7:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 7:31 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Jodar | Zverev | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 64.875th of 474 | 73.12nd of 474 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 40.65th of 474 | 37.922nd of 474 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 52.6821st of 474 | 55.513rd of 474 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 52.8617th of 566 | 55.523rd of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 73 | 77 |
| Matches rated | 122 | 818 |
Serve and return
| Jodar | Zverev | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.6% | 67.6% |
| Return pts won | 32.4% | 36.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 80.6% | 86.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setZverev 63%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setZverev 69%set by set, before calibration; published 65% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeZverev 29.6, Jodar 20.2small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 60.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 48.9%
Decimal odds 1.89 / 1.81, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Durasovic | Agwi | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 58.3327th of 474 | 60.9 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 31.4329th of 474 | 31.0 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 44.86335th of 474 | 45.95 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.38392nd of 566 | 45.58 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 1 |
| Matches, 12 months | 23 | 0 |
| Matches rated | 343 | 18 |
Serve and return
| Durasovic | Agwi | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 62.3% | 65.0% |
| Return pts won | 35.0% | 37.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 78.2% | 83.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setAgwi 59%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setAgwi 63%set by set, before calibration; published 61% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelAgwi 391, Durasovic 34counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 52.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 46.8%
Decimal odds 1.97 / 1.73, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Boitan | Wehnelt | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 57.1 | 57.7 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 29.7 | 29.5 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 43.39 | 43.62 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 43.30 | 44.21404th of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 2 |
| Matches, 12 months | 9 | 11 |
| Matches rated | 98 | 77 |
Serve and return
| Boitan | Wehnelt | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.0% | 63.5% |
| Return pts won | 36.5% | 37.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 79.5% | 80.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setWehnelt 52%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setWehnelt 53%set by set, before calibration; published 52% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelWehnelt 34, Boitan 69counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 58.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 58.9%
Decimal odds 2.24 / 1.56, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Basavareddy | Virtanen | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 63.993rd of 474 | 64.778th of 474 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 36.464th of 474 | 34.2163rd of 474 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.1569th of 474 | 49.4394th of 474 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.9375th of 566 | 49.3597th of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Matches, 12 months | 48 | 54 |
| Matches rated | 174 | 309 |
Serve and return
| Basavareddy | Virtanen | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 66.2% | 64.1% |
| Return pts won | 35.9% | 33.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 84.9% | 81.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setBasavareddy 57%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBasavareddy 60%set by set, before calibration; published 58% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeVirtanen 25.4, Basavareddy 21.5small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 72.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 73.8%
Decimal odds 3.46 / 1.23, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Chidekh | Shelbayh | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.8170th of 474 | 58.7305th of 474 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 37.528th of 474 | 34.4147th of 474 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.6190th of 474 | 46.57237th of 474 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.22111th of 566 | 46.21272nd of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 69 | 50 |
| Matches rated | 185 | 242 |
Serve and return
| Chidekh | Shelbayh | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.1% | 57.5% |
| Return pts won | 42.5% | 36.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 79.7% | 68.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelATP Challenger
- Chance to win a setChidekh 69%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setChidekh 77%set by set, before calibration; published 72% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeShelbayh 23.0, Chidekh 25.4small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -0.4
- First line
- +2.0
- Latest
- +2.0
Fils +2.0 at -110
- Model
- 52.8%
- First line
- 37.4%
- Latest
- 37.4%
Moneyline Shelton B. -191 / Fils A. +155 (vig removed)
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 38.6%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Fri 7:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 7:31 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Fils | Shelton | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 69.214th of 474 | 71.95th of 474 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 38.515th of 474 | 35.399th of 474 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 53.829th of 474 | 53.5911th of 474 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 53.928th of 566 | 53.2814th of 566 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 52 | 62 |
| Matches rated | 275 | 296 |
Serve and return
| Fils | Shelton | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 70.2% | 69.4% |
| Return pts won | 30.6% | 29.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 90.3% | 89.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setFils 52%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setFils 54%set by set, before calibration; published 53% after tempering toward 50%
Conditions
- AgeShelton 24.1, Fils 22.4small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) match database, Jeff Sackmann ATP archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →