ATP Tennis predictions Sun, Oct 11
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every ATP match. How it works →
8 matches on this slate · model went 5–2 · 152–82 last 30 days →
Games
Mensik J.
Cerundolo F.
Gea A.
Shelton B.
Mannarino A.
Khachanov K.
Sakamoto R.
De Minaur A.
Hurkacz H.
Nakashima B.
Bublik A.
Halys Q.
Zverev A.
Tiafoe F.
Davidovich Fokina A.
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 46.5%
- First line
- 41.6%
- Latest
- 41.6%
Moneyline Cerundolo F. +129 / Mensik J. -158 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings · Sat 12:58 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings · as of Sat 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Against the first line
- Final
- Gea A. 14, Shelton B. 12
- Result
- Gea A. won by 2
- Why
- Model 30%, first price 28%
Model vs market
- Model
- 70.3%
- First line
- 72.0%
- Latest
- 72.0%
Moneyline Shelton B. -308 / Gea A. +241 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings · Sat 12:58 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings · as of Sat 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Against the first line
- Final
- Mannarino A. 6, Khachanov K. 12
- Result
- Khachanov K. won by 6
- Why
- Model 77%, first price 75%
Model vs market
- Model
- 77.1%
- First line
- 72.6%
- Latest
- 74.8%
Moneyline Khachanov K. -363 / Mannarino A. +278 (vig removed) · opened 72.6%
- First line
- DraftKings · Sat 12:58 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings · as of Sat 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Against the first line
- Final
- Sakamoto R. 10, De Minaur A. 13
- Result
- De Minaur A. won by 3
- Why
- Model 71%, first price 70%
Model vs market
- Model
- 71.1%
- First line
- 69.3%
- Latest
- 70.3%
Moneyline De Minaur A. -280 / Sakamoto R. +221 (vig removed) · opened 69.3%
- First line
- DraftKings · Sat 12:58 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings · as of Sat 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Against the first line
- Final
- Zhou Y. 11, Hurkacz H. 15
- Result
- Zhou Y. lost by 4
- Why
- Model 15%, first price 14%
Model vs market
- Model
- 84.7%
- First line
- 84.6%
- Latest
- 85.6%
Moneyline Hurkacz H. -870 / Zhou Y. +564 (vig removed) · opened 84.6%
- First line
- DraftKings · Sat 12:58 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings · as of Sat 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Against the first line
- Final
- Nakashima B. 16, Bublik A. 19
- Result
- Nakashima B. lost by 3
- Why
- Model 56%, first price 54%
Model vs market
- Model
- 43.6%
- First line
- 43.1%
- Latest
- 46.2%
Moneyline Bublik A. +106 / Nakashima B. -130 (vig removed) · opened 43.1%
- First line
- DraftKings · Sat 12:58 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings · as of Sat 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Against the first line
- Final
- Halys Q. 14, Zverev A. 18
- Result
- Halys Q. lost by 4
- Why
- Model 24%, first price 16%
Model vs market
- Model
- 76.0%
- First line
- 84.1%
- Latest
- 84.1%
Moneyline Zverev A. -740 / Halys Q. +500 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings · Sat 12:58 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings · as of Sat 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Against the first line
- Final
- Tiafoe F. 18, Davidovich Fokina A. 18
- Result
- Davidovich Fokina A. tied
- Why
- Model 55%, first price 50%
Model vs market
- Model
- 54.8%
- First line
- 50.3%
- Latest
- 50.3%
Moneyline Davidovich Fokina A. -112 / Tiafoe F. -109 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings · Sat 12:58 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings · as of Sat 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →