ATP Tennis predictions Fri, Oct 16
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every ATP match. Methodology →
2 matches on this slate · model went 1–1 · 50–35 since Oct 20 (model V4) →
Games
Ruud
Jodar
Set at line Ruud 45.0% · model 58.6%
Medvedev
Set at line Paul 34.6% · model 38.9%
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Ruud C. 13, Jodar R. 16
- Result
- Ruud C. lost by 3
- Why
- Model 58.6%, first price 45.0%
Model vs market
- Model
- -1.5
- First line
- +1.5
- Latest
- +1.0
Ruud +1.0 at -103 · opened +1.5
- Model
- 58.6%
- First line
- 43.7%
- Latest
- 45.0%
Moneyline Jodar R. -136 / Ruud C. +112 (vig removed) · opened 43.7%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 43.7%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Wed 8:30 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Thu 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Paul T. 12, Medvedev D. 13
- Result
- Paul T. lost by 1
- Why
- Model 38.9%, first price 34.6%
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- -2.5
- Latest
- -3.0
Medvedev -3.0 at -101 · opened -2.5
- Model
- 61.1%
- First line
- 63.9%
- Latest
- 65.4%
Moneyline Medvedev D. -218 / Paul T. +176 (vig removed) · opened 63.9%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 63.9%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Wed 8:30 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Thu 8:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →