ATP Tennis predictions Thu, Oct 15
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every ATP match. Methodology →
2 matches on this slate · model went 2–0 · 50–35 since Oct 20 (model V4) →
Games
Davidovich Fokina
Gea
Set at line Davidovich Fokina 51.2% · model 54.4%
De Minaur
Zverev
Set at line Zverev 64.5% · model 66.1%
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Davidovich Fokina A. 4, Gea A. 1
- Result
- Davidovich Fokina A. won by 3
- Why
- Model 54.4%, first price 51.2%
Model vs market
- Model
- -0.5
- First line
- -0.5
- Latest
- -0.5
Davidovich Fokina -0.5 at -101
- Model
- 54.4%
- First line
- 52.4%
- Latest
- 51.2%
Moneyline Gea A. -105 / Davidovich Fokina A. -116 (vig removed) · opened 52.4%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 52.4%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Tue 8:31 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Wed 8:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- De Minaur A. 8, Zverev A. 12
- Result
- Zverev A. won by 4
- Why
- Model 66.1%, first price 64.5%
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- -2.5
- Latest
- -2.5
Zverev -2.5 at -103
- Model
- 66.1%
- First line
- 65.9%
- Latest
- 64.5%
Moneyline Zverev A. -209 / De Minaur A. +169 (vig removed) · opened 65.9%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 65.9%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Tue 8:31 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Wed 8:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →