ATP Tennis predictions Wed, Oct 14
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every ATP match. Methodology →
4 matches on this slate · model went 4–0 · 50–35 since Oct 20 (model V4) →
Games
Jodar
Van De Zandschulp
Set at line Van De Zandschulp 37.1% · model 45.7%
Auger Aliassime
Ruud
Set at line Ruud 42.4% · model 52.8%
Tsitsipas
Medvedev
Set at line Tsitsipas 32.8% · model 34.2%
Bergs
Set at line Bergs 32.9% · model 44.8%
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Jodar R. 18, Van De Zandschulp B. 13
- Result
- Van De Zandschulp B. lost by 5
- Why
- Model 45.7%, first price 37.1%
Model vs market
- Model
- -1.5
- First line
- -3.0
- Latest
- -3.0
Jodar -3.0 at -101
- Model
- 54.3%
- First line
- 62.9%
- Latest
- 62.9%
Moneyline Van De Zandschulp B. +157 / Jodar R. -193 (vig removed)
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 62.9%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Mon 8:34 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Tue 8:31 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Auger Aliassime F. 2, Ruud C. 5
- Result
- Ruud C. won by 3
- Why
- Model 52.8%, first price 42.4%
Model vs market
- Model
- -0.5
- First line
- +1.5
- Latest
- +1.5
Ruud +1.5 at -104
- Model
- 52.8%
- First line
- 45.4%
- Latest
- 42.4%
Moneyline Ruud C. +125 / Auger Aliassime F. -152 (vig removed) · opened 45.4%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 45.4%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Mon 8:34 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Tue 8:31 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Tsitsipas S. 9, Medvedev D. 13
- Result
- Tsitsipas S. lost by 4
- Why
- Model 34.2%, first price 32.8%
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- -2.5
- Latest
- -3.0
Medvedev -3.0 at +104 · opened -2.5
- Model
- 65.8%
- First line
- 65.5%
- Latest
- 67.2%
Moneyline Medvedev D. -238 / Tsitsipas S. +191 (vig removed) · opened 65.5%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 65.5%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Mon 8:34 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Tue 8:31 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Bergs Z. 10, Paul T. 13
- Result
- Bergs Z. lost by 3
- Why
- Model 44.8%, first price 32.9%
Model vs market
- Model
- -1.5
- First line
- -3.0
- Latest
- -3.0
Paul -3.0 at -102
- Model
- 55.2%
- First line
- 67.1%
- Latest
- 67.1%
Moneyline Paul T. -237 / Bergs Z. +190 (vig removed)
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 67.1%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Mon 8:34 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Tue 8:31 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →