ATP Tennis predictions Tue, Oct 13
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every ATP match. Methodology →
4 matches on this slate · model went 2–2 · 50–35 since Oct 20 (model V4) →
Games
Khachanov
De Minaur
Set at line Khachanov 45.0% · model 51.6%
Mensik
Gea
Set at line Gea 38.4% · model 44.9%
Bublik
Zverev
Set at line Zverev 69.5% · model 72.0%
Davidovich Fokina
Hurkacz
Set at line Davidovich Fokina 46.7% · model 53.2%
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Khachanov K. 7, De Minaur A. 12
- Result
- Khachanov K. lost by 5
- Why
- Model 51.6%, first price 45.0%
Model vs market
- Model
- -0.5
- First line
- +1.5
- Latest
- +1.0
Khachanov +1.0 at -104 · opened +1.5
- Model
- 51.6%
- First line
- 43.6%
- Latest
- 45.0%
Moneyline De Minaur A. -136 / Khachanov K. +112 (vig removed) · opened 43.6%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 43.6%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sun 8:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Mon 8:34 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Mensik J. 10, Gea A. 13
- Result
- Gea A. won by 3
- Why
- Model 44.9%, first price 38.4%
Model vs market
- Model
- -1.5
- First line
- -2.5
- Latest
- -2.0
Mensik -2.0 at -113 · opened -2.5
- Model
- 55.1%
- First line
- 61.8%
- Latest
- 61.6%
Moneyline Gea A. +148 / Mensik J. -183 (vig removed) · opened 61.8%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 61.8%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sun 8:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Mon 8:34 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Bublik A. 18, Zverev A. 18
- Result
- Zverev A. tied
- Why
- Model 72.0%, first price 69.5%
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- -3.0
- Latest
- -2.5
Zverev -2.5 at -109 · opened -3.0
- Model
- 72.0%
- First line
- 73.5%
- Latest
- 69.5%
Moneyline Zverev A. -269 / Bublik A. +213 (vig removed) · opened 73.5%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 73.5%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sun 8:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Mon 8:34 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Davidovich Fokina A. 14, Hurkacz H. 15
- Result
- Davidovich Fokina A. lost by 1
- Why
- Model 53.2%, first price 46.7%
Model vs market
- Model
- -0.5
- First line
- +0.5
- Latest
- +0.5
Davidovich Fokina +0.5 at -110
- Model
- 53.2%
- First line
- 48.4%
- Latest
- 46.7%
Moneyline Hurkacz H. -127 / Davidovich Fokina A. +104 (vig removed) · opened 48.4%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 48.4%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Sun 8:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Mon 8:34 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →