ATP Tennis predictions Sat, Oct 17
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every ATP match. Methodology →
16 matches on this slate · model went 12–4 · 50–35 since Oct 20 (model V4) →
Games
Almaty
Mayot
Diallo
Sakamoto
Zhukayev
Walton
Basilashvili
Daniel
Safiullin
Glinka
Brussels
Cina
Schwaerzler
Onclin
Wendelken
Bertola
Mpetshi Perricard
Bailly
Chidekh
Guerrieri
Coppejans
Butvilas
Basavareddy
Gentzsch
Dougaz
Shanghai
Davidovich Fokina
Zverev
Set at line Davidovich Fokina 24.7% · model 31.0%
Medvedev
Jodar
Set at line Jodar 36.8% · model 39.3%
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 54.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 47.6%
Decimal odds 1.96 / 1.78, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 90.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 90.2%
Decimal odds 9.57 / 1.04, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 74.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 82.1%
Decimal odds 1.14 / 5.23, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 65.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 64.5%
Decimal odds 2.63 / 1.45, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Davidovich Fokina A. 17, Zverev A. 14
- Result
- Davidovich Fokina A. won by 3
- Why
- Model 31.0%, first price 24.7%
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- -3.0
- Latest
- -3.5
Zverev -3.5 at +102 · opened -3.0
- Model
- 69.0%
- First line
- 72.9%
- Latest
- 75.3%
Moneyline Zverev A. -374 / Davidovich Fokina A. +286 (vig removed) · opened 72.9%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 72.9%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Thu 8:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Fri 8:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 70.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 78.8%
Decimal odds 1.19 / 4.42, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 67.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 64.1%
Decimal odds 2.61 / 1.46, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 62.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 55.9%
Decimal odds 2.12 / 1.67, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 56.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 50.4%
Decimal odds 1.85 / 1.88, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Recommended bet
- Final
- Medvedev D. 7, Jodar R. 12
- Result
- Jodar R. won by 5
- Why
- Model 39.3%, first price 36.8%
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- -2.5
- Latest
- -2.5
Medvedev -2.5 at -107
- Model
- 60.7%
- First line
- 63.2%
- Latest
- 63.2%
Moneyline Jodar R. +159 / Medvedev D. -197 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Fri 8:30 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of Fri 8:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 58.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 54.0%
Decimal odds 1.73 / 2.03, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 61.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 56.1%
Decimal odds 1.67 / 2.13, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 79.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 81.6%
Decimal odds 1.14 / 5.05, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 50.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 62.4%
Decimal odds 2.47 / 1.49, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 53.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 61.7%
Decimal odds 1.50 / 2.42, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Market
Model vs market
- Model
- 51.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 40.7%
Decimal odds 2.29 / 1.57, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →