WTA
Model record
99–60
favorite straight-up · last 30 days
62.3%
favorite win rate (159 graded)
4.5
games: average miss on the projected margin
4.8
games: average miss on the projected total
Day by day
6–3
Sep 29
7–7
Sep 30
10–3
Oct 1
10–5
Oct 2
9–3
Oct 3
7–5
Oct 4
3–0
Oct 5
3–1
Oct 6
2–1
Oct 7
1–1
Oct 8
0–2
Oct 9
8–8
Oct 10
2–6
Oct 11
5–2
Oct 12
favorite won · favorite lost
Calibration
50%–60%
47.1% n=51
60%–70%
69.4% n=49
70%–80%
58.6% n=29
bar = how often the favorite actually won · notch = what the model predicted
Recently graded
| Model favorite | Result | Win % | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, Oct 12 → | |||
| Eala A. | ✗ miss | 90.2% | Shi H. 16, Eala A. 12 |
| Sakkari M. | ✓ hit | 63.2% | Vekic D. 6, Sakkari M. 12 |
| Frech M. | ✓ hit | 58.4% | Frech M. 13, Sawangkaew M. 9 |
| McNally C. | ✓ hit | 53.1% | Starodubtseva Y. 16, McNally C. 15 |
| Bejlek S. | ✗ miss | 54.3% | Bejlek S. 7, Paolini J. 12 |
| Kartal S. | ✓ hit | 71.2% | Kartal S. 13, Kalinina A. 8 |
| Tjen J. | ✓ hit | 84.6% | Ito A. 4, Tjen J. 12 |
| Sun, Oct 11 → | |||
| Andreeva M. | ✗ miss | 69.3% | Andreeva M. 9, Zheng Q. 13 |
| McNally C. | ✓ hit | 55.5% | McNally C. 16, Tararudee L. 11 |
| Bondar A. | ✗ miss | 51.2% | Sawangkaew M. 14, Bondar A. 12 |
| Frech M. | ✗ miss | 90.1% | Ito A. 13, Frech M. 10 |
| Kasatkina D. | ✓ hit | 55.9% | Kasatkina D. 14, Sorribes Tormo S. 9 |
| Rakhimova K. | ✗ miss | 77.8% | Rakhimova K. 7, Shi H. 13 |
| Kraus S. | ✗ miss | 52.5% | Kraus S. 6, Sonmez Z. 12 |
| Osorio C. | ✗ miss | 50.5% | Volynets K. 15, Osorio C. 13 |
9 earlier slates
| Model favorite | Result | Win % | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Oct 10 → | |||
| Ruse E. | ✗ miss | 50.9% | Putintseva Y. 9, Ruse E. 6 |
| Boisson L. | ✗ miss | 51.1% | Boisson L. 7, Bondar A. 7 |
| Mertens E. | ✗ miss | 52.6% | Mertens E. 7, Zheng Q. 13 |
| Andreeva M. | ✓ hit | 59.2% | Bartunkova N. 4, Andreeva M. 12 |
| Sonmez Z. | ✓ hit | 51.3% | Zakharova A. 5, Sonmez Z. 12 |
| Kraus S. | ✓ hit | 64.6% | Linette M. 8, Kraus S. 13 |
| Tararudee L. | ✓ hit | 63.9% | Liu C. 10, Tararudee L. 13 |
| McNally C. | ✓ hit | 63.4% | McNally C. 12, Yuan Y. 5 |
| Joint M. | ✗ miss | 61.7% | Joint M. 14, Sawangkaew M. 17 |
| Volynets K. | ✓ hit | 64.5% | Volynets K. 12, Kudermetova P. 3 |
| Osorio C. | ✓ hit | 67.4% | Grant T. 13, Osorio C. 18 |
| Stearns P. | ✗ miss | 80.6% | Shi H. 15, Stearns P. 15 |
| Rakhimova K. | ✓ hit | 67.5% | Rakhimova K. 12, Kenin S. 3 |
| Gibson T. | ✗ miss | 61.6% | Sorribes Tormo S. 13, Gibson T. 5 |
| Golubic V. | ✗ miss | 52.2% | Golubic V. 16, Kasatkina D. 17 |
| Parks A. | ✗ miss | 72.3% | Parks A. 5, Ito A. 12 |
| Fri, Oct 9 → | |||
| Swiatek I. | ✗ miss | 70.6% | Swiatek I. 9, Mertens E. 13 |
| Svitolina E. | ✗ miss | 57.3% | Svitolina E. 9, Zheng Q. 13 |
| Thu, Oct 8 → | |||
| Andreeva M. | ✓ hit | 75.4% | Andreeva M. 14, Alexandrova E. 12 |
| Muchova K. | ✗ miss | 58.1% | Bartunkova N. 12, Muchova K. 3 |
| Wed, Oct 7 → | |||
| Zheng Q. | ✓ hit | 62.7% | Zheng Q. 14, Charaeva A. 11 |
| Gauff C. | ✗ miss | 74.9% | Mertens E. 12, Gauff C. 6 |
| Swiatek I. | ✓ hit | 67.2% | Swiatek I. 12, Jovic I. 4 |
| Tue, Oct 6 → | |||
| Bartunkova N. | ✓ hit | 73.5% | Bartunkova N. 16, Kraus S. 9 |
| Muchova K. | ✓ hit | 61.2% | Osaka N. 17, Muchova K. 15 |
| Noskova L. | ✗ miss | 66.9% | Alexandrova E. 12, Noskova L. 4 |
| Andreeva M. | ✓ hit | 74.2% | Andreeva M. 12, Snigur D. 4 |
| Mon, Oct 5 → | |||
| Mertens E. | ✓ hit | 60.8% | Mertens E. 15, Ostapenko J. 11 |
| Svitolina E. | ✓ hit | 66.2% | Svitolina E. 13, Sakkari M. 9 |
| Swiatek I. | ✓ hit | 90.1% | Swiatek I. 17, Vekic D. 14 |
| Sun, Oct 4 → | |||
| Gauff C. | ✓ hit | 98.4% | Sun X. 6, Gauff C. 13 |
| Bouzkova M. | ✗ miss | 52.1% | Zheng Q. 18, Bouzkova M. 17 |
| Kartal S. | ✗ miss | 71.0% | Kartal S. 5, Charaeva A. 12 |
| Jovic I. | ✓ hit | 67.6% | Rakhimova K. 6, Jovic I. 13 |
| Muchova K. | ✓ hit | 81.1% | Samsonova L. 12, Muchova K. 16 |
| Osaka N. | ✓ hit | 69.9% | Osaka N. 13, Bejlek S. 10 |
| Snigur D. | ✓ hit | 61.2% | Preston T. 1, Snigur D. 12 |
| Yastremska D. | ✗ miss | 52.0% | Yastremska D. 5, Kraus S. 12 |
| Noskova L. | ✓ hit | 76.0% | Golubic V. 3, Noskova L. 12 |
| Shnaider D. | ✗ miss | 71.5% | Shnaider D. 13, Alexandrova E. 15 |
| Andreeva M. | ✓ hit | 91.9% | Andreeva M. 12, Kudermetova P. 5 |
| Sabalenka A. | ✗ miss | 73.3% | Sabalenka A. 7, Bartunkova N. 12 |
| Sat, Oct 3 → | |||
| Zheng Q. | ✓ hit | 51.1% | Kalinskaya A. 11, Zheng Q. 15 |
| Rybakina E. | ✗ miss | 90.4% | Charaeva A. 15, Rybakina E. 13 |
| Bouzkova M. | ✓ hit | 67.2% | Birrell K. 8, Bouzkova M. 12 |
| Svitolina E. | ✓ hit | 69.2% | Svitolina E. 13, Siniakova K. 12 |
| Bencic B. | ✓ hit | 84.5% | Zakharova A. 7, Bencic B. 13 |
| Jovic I. | ✓ hit | 92.6% | Dart H. 12, Jovic I. 14 |
| Bucsa C. | ✗ miss | 81.9% | Bucsa C. 9, Sun X. 13 |
| Sakkari M. | ✓ hit | 78.6% | Hunter S. 4, Sakkari M. 12 |
| Badosa P. | ✗ miss | 51.3% | Badosa P. 11, Ostapenko J. 14 |
| Mertens E. | ✓ hit | 52.4% | Mertens E. 17, Volynets K. 11 |
| Gauff C. | ✓ hit | 87.5% | Osorio C. 14, Gauff C. 17 |
| Swiatek I. | ✓ hit | 97.1% | Swiatek I. 12, Gao X. 5 |
| Fri, Oct 2 → | |||
| Potapova A. | ✗ miss | 69.5% | Kraus S. 4, Potapova A. 1 |
| Sabalenka A. | ✓ hit | 95.8% | Sabalenka A. 12, Zarazua R. 4 |
| Snigur D. | ✓ hit | 55.4% | Snigur D. 16, Paolini J. 14 |
| Tauson C. | ✗ miss | 59.6% | Kudermetova P. 16, Tauson C. 14 |
| Bejlek S. | ✓ hit | 77.4% | Inglis M. 8, Bejlek S. 13 |
| Muchova K. | ✓ hit | 90.6% | Boulter K. 7, Muchova K. 13 |
| Bartunkova N. | ✓ hit | 59.9% | Frech M. 4, Bartunkova N. 12 |
| Shnaider D. | ✓ hit | 84.7% | Shnaider D. 12, Tjen J. 4 |
| Noskova L. | ✓ hit | 66.0% | Ruse E. 5, Noskova L. 12 |
| Chwalinska M. | ✗ miss | 79.0% | Chwalinska M. 4, Yastremska D. 12 |
| Stearns P. | ✗ miss | 59.1% | Stearns P. 13, Golubic V. 15 |