WTA Tennis predictions Fri, Nov 6
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every WTA match. Methodology →
8 matches on this slate · 100–53 since Oct 20 (model V2) →
Games
Chennai WTA
#82
Kudermetova
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Tjen
#87
Montgomery
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Montgomery
#110
Linette
#196
Hontama
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Linette
#99
Stefanini
#105
Zakharova
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Zakharova
Hong Kong WTA
#93
Liu
#67
Sonmez
Biggest factor: Return edge · Sonmez
#23
Cirstea
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Cirstea
#34
Sakkari
#47
Sasnovich
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Sakkari
#29
Eala
#116
Ruzic
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Eala
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 55.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 48.0%
Decimal odds 1.97 / 1.82, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Liu | Sonmez | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 56.191st of 754 | 56.285th of 754 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 43.0111th of 754 | 44.369th of 754 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.5495th of 754 | 50.2870th of 754 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.5593rd of 870 | 50.2167th of 870 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 38 | 56 |
| Matches rated | 453 | 426 |
Serve and return
| Liu | Sonmez | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 55.5% | 57.2% |
| Return pts won | 42.8% | 44.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 63.6% | 67.5% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setSonmez 56%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSonmez 59%set by set, before calibration; published 56% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set38%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeSonmez 24.5, Liu 26.5small age adjustment to serve
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 73.3%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 70.7%
Decimal odds 1.34 / 3.24, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Shubladze | Cirstea | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 54.5131st of 754 | 60.329th of 754 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 45.151st of 754 | 47.215th of 754 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.7883rd of 754 | 53.7622nd of 754 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.6386th of 870 | 53.6823rd of 870 |
| Wins, last 10 | 9 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 52 | 56 |
| Matches rated | 226 | 1016 |
Serve and return
| Shubladze | Cirstea | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 50.8% | 57.8% |
| Return pts won | 42.2% | 49.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 52.1% | 68.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setCirstea 73%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setCirstea 82%set by set, before calibration; published 73% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set33%chance the match goes the distance
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 54.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 63.0%
Decimal odds 1.50 / 2.55, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Kudermetova | Tjen | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 56.572nd of 754 | 61.124th of 754 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 43.494th of 754 | 40.2241st of 754 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.9475th of 754 | 50.6560th of 754 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.7282nd of 870 | 50.4361st of 870 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 48 | 48 |
| Matches rated | 379 | 186 |
Serve and return
| Kudermetova | Tjen | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 60.5% | 61.8% |
| Return pts won | 38.2% | 39.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 74.6% | 77.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setTjen 54%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setTjen 57%set by set, before calibration; published 54% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set39%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeTjen 24.5, Kudermetova 23.4small age adjustment to serve
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 59.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 56.9%
Decimal odds 2.19 / 1.66, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Sakkari | Sasnovich | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.025th of 754 | 57.156th of 754 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 45.054th of 754 | 46.426th of 754 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 53.0030th of 754 | 51.7843rd of 754 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 52.6834th of 870 | 51.5247th of 870 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 46 | 45 |
| Matches rated | 806 | 757 |
Serve and return
| Sakkari | Sasnovich | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 57.9% | 55.3% |
| Return pts won | 44.7% | 42.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 68.9% | 62.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setSakkari 59%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSakkari 63%set by set, before calibration; published 59% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set38%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeSasnovich 32.6, Sakkari 31.3small age adjustment to serve
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 84.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 81.6%
Decimal odds 1.16 / 5.14, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Rajeshwaran Revathi | Montgomery | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 50.0 | 56.187th of 754 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 37.4 | 43.0110th of 754 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 43.71 | 49.5893rd of 754 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 43.52 | 49.6387th of 870 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 9 | 20 |
| Matches rated | 32 | 252 |
Serve and return
| Rajeshwaran Revathi | Montgomery | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 51.9% | 63.0% |
| Return pts won | 37.0% | 48.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 54.7% | 79.5% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setMontgomery 84%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMontgomery 93%set by set, before calibration; published 84% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set27%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeMontgomery 22.2, Rajeshwaran Revathi 17.3small age adjustment to serve
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 78.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 75.9%
Decimal odds 3.93 / 1.25, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Eala | Ruzic | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 59.636th of 754 | 55.0115th of 754 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 47.017th of 754 | 43.1106th of 754 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 53.3028th of 754 | 49.03107th of 754 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 53.2129th of 870 | 48.92116th of 870 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 67 | 48 |
| Matches rated | 365 | 352 |
Serve and return
| Eala | Ruzic | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 60.9% | 52.1% |
| Return pts won | 47.9% | 39.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 75.5% | 55.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setEala 78%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setEala 88%set by set, before calibration; published 79% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set31%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeRuzic 23.8, Eala 21.5small age adjustment to serve
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 57.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 68.4%
Decimal odds 2.99 / 1.38, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Linette | Hontama | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 56.381st of 754 | 51.8220th of 754 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 41.3188th of 754 | 42.9119th of 754 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.82120th of 754 | 47.34182nd of 754 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.03110th of 870 | 47.20196th of 870 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 45 | 39 |
| Matches rated | 849 | 485 |
Serve and return
| Linette | Hontama | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 56.2% | 54.2% |
| Return pts won | 45.8% | 43.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 65.3% | 60.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setLinette 57%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setLinette 61%set by set, before calibration; published 57% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set38%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeHontama 27.2, Linette 34.7small age adjustment to serve
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 51.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 48.3%
Decimal odds 1.96 / 1.83, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Stefanini | Zakharova | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 54.0144th of 754 | 55.798th of 754 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 45.150th of 754 | 43.396th of 754 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.5991st of 754 | 49.5096th of 754 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.4099th of 870 | 49.24105th of 870 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 28 | 54 |
| Matches rated | 604 | 481 |
Serve and return
| Stefanini | Zakharova | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 54.3% | 54.6% |
| Return pts won | 45.4% | 45.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 60.7% | 61.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setZakharova 51%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setZakharova 51%set by set, before calibration; published 51% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set38%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeZakharova 24.8, Stefanini 28.5small age adjustment to serve
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →