WTA Tennis predictions Thu, Nov 5
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every WTA match. Methodology →
7 matches on this slate · 93–53 since Oct 20 (model V2) →
Games
Chennai WTA
#197
Hontama
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Hontama
#108
Stefanini
#189
Waltert
Biggest factor: Return edge · Stefanini
#114
Zakharova
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Zakharova
Hong Kong WTA
#200
Pridankina
Biggest factor: Return edge · Shubladze
#67
Sonmez
#262
Stojsavljevic
Biggest factor: Return edge · Sonmez
#29
Eala
#75
Valentova
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Eala
#106
Stoiana
#24
Cirstea
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Cirstea
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 64.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 66.0%
Decimal odds 2.77 / 1.43, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Shubladze | Pridankina | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 54.3135th of 754 | 52.1206th of 754 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 45.149th of 754 | 42.3141st of 754 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.6983rd of 754 | 47.22184th of 754 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.5488th of 870 | 47.02200th of 870 |
| Wins, last 10 | 9 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 51 | 36 |
| Matches rated | 225 | 283 |
Serve and return
| Shubladze | Pridankina | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 55.5% | 51.4% |
| Return pts won | 48.6% | 44.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 63.6% | 53.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setShubladze 64%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setShubladze 71%set by set, before calibration; published 64% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set35%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- Surface switchPridankina from claygames projection only, not the win chance
- Days since last event Not in the modelPridankina 108, Shubladze 3counted from event start dates
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 77.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 74.9%
Decimal odds 3.75 / 1.26, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Sonmez | Stojsavljevic | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 56.476th of 754 | 52.2201st of 754 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 44.175th of 754 | 39.1306th of 754 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.2869th of 754 | 45.67240th of 754 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 50.2067th of 870 | 45.58262nd of 870 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 55 | 23 |
| Matches rated | 425 | 84 |
Serve and return
| Sonmez | Stojsavljevic | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.3% | 52.9% |
| Return pts won | 47.1% | 38.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 76.3% | 57.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setSonmez 77%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSonmez 87%set by set, before calibration; published 77% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set32%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeStojsavljevic 17.9, Sonmez 24.5small age adjustment to serve
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 67.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 78.5%
Decimal odds 1.20 / 4.37, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Kulambayeva | Hontama | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 48.9 | 52.0211th of 754 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 40.4 | 42.5132nd of 754 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 44.64 | 47.26181st of 754 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.80305th of 870 | 47.10197th of 870 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 18 | 38 |
| Matches rated | 440 | 484 |
Serve and return
| Kulambayeva | Hontama | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 50.1% | 55.3% |
| Return pts won | 44.7% | 49.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 50.3% | 63.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setHontama 68%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setHontama 76%set by set, before calibration; published 68% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set35%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeHontama 27.2, Kulambayeva 26.6small age adjustment to serve
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 69.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 61.9%
Decimal odds 2.49 / 1.53, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Eala | Valentova | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 59.436th of 754 | 55.2110th of 754 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 47.115th of 754 | 45.541st of 754 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 53.2528th of 754 | 50.3567th of 754 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 53.1729th of 870 | 50.0075th of 870 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 66 | 42 |
| Matches rated | 364 | 168 |
Serve and return
| Eala | Valentova | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 58.3% | 52.7% |
| Return pts won | 47.3% | 41.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 69.9% | 56.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setEala 69%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setEala 77%set by set, before calibration; published 69% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set35%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeValentova 19.7, Eala 21.5small age adjustment to serve
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 64.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 64.5%
Decimal odds 2.65 / 1.46, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Stefanini | Waltert | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 53.6151st of 754 | 52.6181st of 754 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 44.953rd of 754 | 41.3185th of 754 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.2599th of 754 | 46.94196th of 754 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.04108th of 870 | 47.30189th of 870 |
| Wins, last 10 | 2 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 27 | 40 |
| Matches rated | 603 | 509 |
Serve and return
| Stefanini | Waltert | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 55.8% | 51.5% |
| Return pts won | 48.5% | 44.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 64.3% | 53.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setStefanini 65%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setStefanini 72%set by set, before calibration; published 65% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set36%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeWaltert 25.9, Stefanini 28.5small age adjustment to serve
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 75.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 75.7%
Decimal odds 1.25 / 3.90, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Stoiana | Cirstea | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 54.3133rd of 754 | 60.132nd of 754 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 43.684th of 754 | 47.017th of 754 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.98107th of 754 | 53.5624th of 754 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.05106th of 870 | 53.4724th of 870 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 42 | 55 |
| Matches rated | 144 | 1015 |
Serve and return
| Stoiana | Cirstea | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 51.5% | 59.1% |
| Return pts won | 40.9% | 48.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 53.7% | 71.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setCirstea 75%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setCirstea 84%set by set, before calibration; published 75% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set32%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeCirstea 36.6, Stoiana 23.5small age adjustment to serve
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 82.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 86.1%
Decimal odds 1.10 / 6.83, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Adkar | Zakharova | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 49.1361st of 754 | 55.4104th of 754 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 38.8334th of 754 | 42.8120th of 754 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 43.91344th of 754 | 49.13103rd of 754 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 43.49399th of 870 | 48.88114th of 870 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 31 | 53 |
| Matches rated | 168 | 480 |
Serve and return
| Adkar | Zakharova | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 50.6% | 60.7% |
| Return pts won | 39.3% | 49.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 51.5% | 75.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setZakharova 81%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setZakharova 91%set by set, before calibration; published 82% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set29%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeZakharova 24.8, Adkar 21.9small age adjustment to serve
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →