WTA Tennis predictions Wed, Nov 4
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every WTA match. Methodology →
8 matches on this slate · 88–48 since Oct 20 (model V2) →
Games
Chennai WTA
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Montgomery
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Kudermetova
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Tjen
Biggest factor: Return edge · Falkowska
Hong Kong WTA
Biggest factor: Return edge · Charaeva
Biggest factor: Return edge · Boulter
Biggest factor: Return edge · Sasnovich
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Sakkari
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 60.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 47.9%
Decimal odds 1.81 / 1.97, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Charaeva | Ruzic | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 55.4104th of 753 | 54.3132nd of 753 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 45.247th of 753 | 43.1102nd of 753 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.3069th of 753 | 48.69120th of 753 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 50.3263rd of 870 | 48.58129th of 870 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 2 |
| Matches, 12 months | 49 | 46 |
| Matches rated | 321 | 350 |
Serve and return
| Charaeva | Ruzic | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 56.4% | 53.2% |
| Return pts won | 46.8% | 43.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 65.6% | 58.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setCharaeva 61%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setCharaeva 66%set by set, before calibration; published 61% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set37%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeRuzic 23.8, Charaeva 24.5small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelRuzic 9, Charaeva 35counted from event start dates
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 57.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 57.7%
Decimal odds 2.24 / 1.64, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Boulter | Liu | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 56.761st of 753 | 55.697th of 753 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 44.462nd of 753 | 42.9109th of 753 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.5859th of 753 | 49.2797th of 753 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 50.4759th of 870 | 49.29101st of 870 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 45 | 37 |
| Matches rated | 540 | 452 |
Serve and return
| Boulter | Liu | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 57.2% | 55.1% |
| Return pts won | 44.9% | 42.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 67.5% | 62.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setBoulter 58%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBoulter 61%set by set, before calibration; published 57% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set38%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeLiu 26.4, Boulter 30.3small age adjustment to serve
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 59.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 62.0%
Decimal odds 2.48 / 1.52, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Sasnovich | Gibson | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 57.056th of 753 | 57.850th of 753 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 46.326th of 753 | 41.5171st of 753 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 51.6743rd of 753 | 49.6684th of 753 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 51.4149th of 870 | 49.4593rd of 870 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 44 | 70 |
| Matches rated | 756 | 348 |
Serve and return
| Sasnovich | Gibson | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 58.6% | 55.8% |
| Return pts won | 44.2% | 41.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 70.6% | 64.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setSasnovich 60%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSasnovich 64%set by set, before calibration; published 60% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set38%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeGibson 22.4, Sasnovich 32.6small age adjustment to serve
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 60.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 63.4%
Decimal odds 2.58 / 1.49, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Sakkari | Joint | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 60.924th of 753 | 56.189th of 753 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 44.956th of 753 | 45.344th of 753 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 52.8930th of 753 | 50.6658th of 753 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 52.5635th of 870 | 50.4460th of 870 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 45 | 38 |
| Matches rated | 805 | 233 |
Serve and return
| Sakkari | Joint | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 58.9% | 55.7% |
| Return pts won | 44.3% | 41.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 71.2% | 64.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setSakkari 61%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSakkari 66%set by set, before calibration; published 61% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set37%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeJoint 20.6, Sakkari 31.3small age adjustment to serve
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 54.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 58.9%
Decimal odds 1.62 / 2.32, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Vandromme | Montgomery | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 54.5127th of 753 | 55.7 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 42.9117th of 753 | 43.4 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.69121st of 753 | 49.55 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.48135th of 870 | 49.6284th of 870 |
| Wins, last 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 41 | 19 |
| Matches rated | 129 | 251 |
Serve and return
| Vandromme | Montgomery | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 55.9% | 57.2% |
| Return pts won | 42.8% | 44.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 64.4% | 67.5% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setMontgomery 55%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMontgomery 57%set by set, before calibration; published 55% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set38%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeMontgomery 22.2, Vandromme 19.0small age adjustment to serve
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 63.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 57.9%
Decimal odds 2.24 / 1.63, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Kudermetova | Selekhmeteva | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 56.382nd of 753 | 53.5151st of 753 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 42.9112th of 753 | 41.6169th of 753 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.6087th of 753 | 47.59167th of 753 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.3796th of 870 | 47.67165th of 870 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 47 | 35 |
| Matches rated | 378 | 350 |
Serve and return
| Kudermetova | Selekhmeteva | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 58.8% | 54.8% |
| Return pts won | 45.2% | 41.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 71.1% | 61.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setKudermetova 64%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setKudermetova 70%set by set, before calibration; published 64% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set37%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeSelekhmeteva 23.8, Kudermetova 23.4small age adjustment to serve
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 59.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 67.7%
Decimal odds 1.39 / 2.91, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Garland | Tjen | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 56.188th of 753 | 60.925th of 753 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 42.0155th of 753 | 40.0250th of 753 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.02105th of 753 | 50.4264th of 753 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.70125th of 870 | 50.2166th of 870 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 16 | 47 |
| Matches rated | 393 | 185 |
Serve and return
| Garland | Tjen | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 60.0% | 62.9% |
| Return pts won | 37.1% | 40.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 73.7% | 79.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setTjen 60%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setTjen 64%set by set, before calibration; published 60% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set38%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeTjen 24.5, Garland 25.3small age adjustment to serve
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 58.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 60.4%
Decimal odds 1.56 / 2.38, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Rajeshwaran Revathi | Falkowska | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 50.0 | 51.0247th of 753 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 36.5 | 39.0311th of 753 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 43.25 | 45.01272nd of 753 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 43.07 | 44.74307th of 870 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 8 | 30 |
| Matches rated | 31 | 391 |
Serve and return
| Rajeshwaran Revathi | Falkowska | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 55.9% | 58.3% |
| Return pts won | 41.7% | 44.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 64.4% | 70.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setFalkowska 58%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setFalkowska 63%set by set, before calibration; published 58% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set38%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeFalkowska 26.4, Rajeshwaran Revathi 17.3small age adjustment to serve
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →