WTA Tennis predictions Mon, Nov 9
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every WTA match. Methodology →
2 matches on this slate · 0–2 since Nov 8 (model V4) →
Games
#11
Muchova
#6
Sabalenka
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Sabalenka
#12
Svitolina
#2
Andreeva
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Andreeva
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 63.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 64.2%
Decimal odds 1.48 / 2.65, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Muchova | Sabalenka | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 64.97th of 755 | 66.92nd of 755 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 45.643rd of 755 | 47.120th of 755 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 55.2311th of 755 | 56.984th of 755 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 55.3211th of 871 | 56.676th of 871 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 51 | 58 |
| Matches rated | 447 | 692 |
Serve and return
| Muchova | Sabalenka | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 60.9% | 64.6% |
| Return pts won | 35.4% | 39.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 75.4% | 82.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setSabalenka 62%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSabalenka 68%from the serve and return chances, before the results rating
- Results ratingSabalenka 68%surface Elo from every result, all levels
- Published chanceSabalenka 64%fitted blend of the two chances above
- Games alignmentSabalenka serve +0.4 ptsserve chances shifted so the games projection agrees with the published chance
Conditions
- AgeSabalenka 28.5, Muchova 30.2small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelSabalenka 28, Muchova 28counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 62.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 62.3%
Decimal odds 1.52 / 2.51, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Svitolina | Andreeva | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 60.631st of 755 | 64.111th of 755 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 50.04th of 755 | 50.52nd of 755 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 55.3010th of 755 | 57.302nd of 755 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 55.3112th of 871 | 57.212nd of 871 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 60 | 66 |
| Matches rated | 798 | 257 |
Serve and return
| Svitolina | Andreeva | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 52.9% | 58.5% |
| Return pts won | 41.5% | 47.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 57.3% | 70.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setAndreeva 69%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setAndreeva 77%from the serve and return chances, before the results rating
- Results ratingAndreeva 47%surface Elo from every result, all levels
- Published chanceAndreeva 62%fitted blend of the two chances above
- Games alignmentAndreeva serve -0.8 ptsserve chances shifted so the games projection agrees with the published chance
Conditions
- AgeAndreeva 19.6, Svitolina 32.2small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelAndreeva 40, Svitolina 28counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →