WTA Tennis predictions Sun, Nov 8
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every WTA match. Methodology →
4 matches on this slate
Games
Chennai WTA
#105
Linette
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Tjen
Hong Kong WTA
#28
Eala
#62
Liu
Biggest factor: Return edge · Eala
Masters Cup WTA
#12
Noskova
#8
Kostyuk
Biggest factor: Return edge · Kostyuk
#3
Pegula
#5
Gauff
Biggest factor: Return edge · Gauff
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 70.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 67.4%
Decimal odds 2.89 / 1.40, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Eala | Liu | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 59.737th of 755 | 58.061st of 755 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 47.512th of 755 | 43.883rd of 755 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 53.6126th of 755 | 50.9063rd of 755 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 53.5228th of 871 | 50.8362nd of 871 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 69 | 40 |
| Matches rated | 367 | 455 |
Serve and return
| Eala | Liu | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 60.0% | 54.0% |
| Return pts won | 46.0% | 40.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 73.6% | 59.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setEala 70%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setEala 79%from the serve and return chances, before the results rating
- Results ratingEala 72%surface Elo from every result, all levels
- Published chanceEala 70%fitted blend of the two chances above
- Games alignmentEala serve +0.3 ptsserve chances shifted so the games projection agrees with the published chance
Conditions
- AgeLiu 26.5, Eala 21.5small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 62.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 65.5%
Decimal odds 1.44 / 2.73, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Linette | Tjen | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 57.175th of 755 | 61.623rd of 755 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 41.1170th of 755 | 40.3212th of 755 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.10108th of 755 | 50.9562nd of 755 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.21105th of 871 | 50.7464th of 871 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 47 | 50 |
| Matches rated | 851 | 188 |
Serve and return
| Linette | Tjen | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 59.3% | 64.2% |
| Return pts won | 35.8% | 40.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 72.1% | 81.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setTjen 66%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setTjen 73%from the serve and return chances, before the results rating
- Results ratingTjen 54%surface Elo from every result, all levels
- Published chanceTjen 62%fitted blend of the two chances above
- Games alignmentTjen serve -0.4 ptsserve chances shifted so the games projection agrees with the published chance
Conditions
- AgeTjen 24.5, Linette 34.7small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 51.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 44.9%
Decimal odds 2.10 / 1.71, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Noskova | Kostyuk | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 65.33rd of 755 | 61.820th of 755 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 44.565th of 755 | 48.98th of 755 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 54.9016th of 755 | 55.3310th of 755 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 55.2812th of 871 | 55.658th of 871 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 50 | 46 |
| Matches rated | 318 | 408 |
Serve and return
| Noskova | Kostyuk | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 60.5% | 61.1% |
| Return pts won | 38.9% | 39.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 74.6% | 75.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setKostyuk 52%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setKostyuk 53%from the serve and return chances, before the results rating
- Results ratingKostyuk 49%surface Elo from every result, all levels
- Published chanceKostyuk 51%fitted blend of the two chances above
- Games alignmentKostyuk serve -0.1 ptsserve chances shifted so the games projection agrees with the published chance
Conditions
- AgeKostyuk 24.4, Noskova 22.0small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelKostyuk 27, Noskova 39counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 52.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 58.5%
Decimal odds 1.61 / 2.27, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Pegula | Gauff | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 65.06th of 755 | 63.314th of 755 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 48.96th of 755 | 50.33rd of 755 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 56.955th of 755 | 56.786th of 755 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 56.933rd of 871 | 56.735th of 871 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Matches, 12 months | 63 | 57 |
| Matches rated | 730 | 424 |
Serve and return
| Pegula | Gauff | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 57.5% | 58.3% |
| Return pts won | 41.7% | 42.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 68.1% | 70.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setGauff 53%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setGauff 55%from the serve and return chances, before the results rating
- Results ratingGauff 50%surface Elo from every result, all levels
- Published chanceGauff 52%fitted blend of the two chances above
- Games alignmentGauff serve -0.2 ptsserve chances shifted so the games projection agrees with the published chance
Conditions
- AgeGauff 22.7, Pegula 32.7small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelGauff 39, Pegula 27counted from event start dates
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →