WTA Tennis predictions Sat, Nov 7
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every WTA match. Methodology →
4 matches on this slate · 105–55 since Oct 20 (model V2) →
Games
Chennai WTA
#83
Montgomery
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Tjen
#105
Zakharova
#111
Linette
Biggest factor: Return edge · Zakharova
Hong Kong WTA
#78
Liu
Biggest factor: Return edge · Shubladze
#29
Eala
#31
Sakkari
Biggest factor: Return edge · Eala
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 50.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 48.1%
Decimal odds 1.96 / 1.82, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Liu | Shubladze | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 56.861st of 755 | 54.9118th of 755 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 43.1103rd of 755 | 45.540th of 755 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.9775th of 755 | 50.2071st of 755 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.9578th of 871 | 50.0574th of 871 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 9 |
| Matches, 12 months | 39 | 53 |
| Matches rated | 454 | 227 |
Serve and return
| Liu | Shubladze | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 55.1% | 55.3% |
| Return pts won | 44.7% | 44.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 62.5% | 63.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setShubladze 51%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setShubladze 51%set by set, before calibration; published 51% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set38%chance the match goes the distance
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 53.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 54.5%
Decimal odds 2.08 / 1.74, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Eala | Sakkari | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 59.337th of 755 | 61.621st of 755 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 47.315th of 755 | 45.152nd of 755 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 53.2828th of 755 | 53.3527th of 755 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 53.1929th of 871 | 53.0231st of 871 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 68 | 47 |
| Matches rated | 366 | 807 |
Serve and return
| Eala | Sakkari | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 58.6% | 57.5% |
| Return pts won | 42.5% | 41.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 70.6% | 68.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setEala 54%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setEala 55%set by set, before calibration; published 54% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set38%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeSakkari 31.3, Eala 21.5small age adjustment to serve
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 56.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 59.3%
Decimal odds 1.59 / 2.32, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Montgomery | Tjen | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 56.384th of 755 | 61.423rd of 755 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 43.1105th of 755 | 40.3236th of 755 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.6985th of 755 | 50.8456th of 755 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.7283rd of 871 | 50.6258th of 871 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 21 | 49 |
| Matches rated | 253 | 187 |
Serve and return
| Montgomery | Tjen | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 60.3% | 62.3% |
| Return pts won | 37.7% | 39.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 74.2% | 78.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setTjen 57%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setTjen 60%set by set, before calibration; published 57% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set39%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeTjen 24.5, Montgomery 22.2small age adjustment to serve
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 58.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 49.9%
Decimal odds 1.88 / 1.89, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Zakharova | Linette | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 55.798th of 755 | 56.862nd of 755 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 43.396th of 755 | 41.0206th of 755 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.5194th of 755 | 48.91114th of 755 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.25105th of 871 | 49.10111th of 871 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 54 | 46 |
| Matches rated | 481 | 850 |
Serve and return
| Zakharova | Linette | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 58.7% | 56.3% |
| Return pts won | 43.7% | 41.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 70.9% | 65.5% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setZakharova 58%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setZakharova 62%set by set, before calibration; published 58% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set38%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeLinette 34.7, Zakharova 24.8small age adjustment to serve
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →