WTA Tennis predictions Sat, Nov 14
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every WTA match. Methodology →
1 match on this slate · 6–7 since Nov 8 (model V4) →
Games
#1
Andreeva
60.7%
11.7
#3
Pegula
39.3%
9.2
Projected total games
20.9
AndreevaModelMarket
Win
60.7%
69.3%
Biggest factor: Return edge · Andreeva
How we got this
Andreeva M.
11.7
Pegula J.
9.2
Model vs market
Andreeva win
8.6 pp toward Pegula
- Model
- 60.7%
- First line
- 69.3%
- Latest
- 69.3%
Moneyline Pegula J. +211 / Andreeva M. -266 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings · 7:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings · as of 7:32 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Andreeva | Pegula | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 65.63rd of 728 | 64.38th of 728 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 52.21st of 728 | 49.45th of 728 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 58.921st of 728 | 56.884th of 728 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 58.771st of 839 | 56.903rd of 839 |
| Wins, last 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 69 | 66 |
| Matches rated | 260 | 733 |
Serve and return
| Andreeva | Pegula | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 60.6% | 55.0% |
| Return pts won | 45.0% | 39.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 74.8% | 62.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setAndreeva 69%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setAndreeva 77%from the serve and return chances, before the results rating
- Results ratingAndreeva 40%surface Elo from every result, all levels
- Published chanceAndreeva 61%fitted blend of the two chances above
- Games alignmentAndreeva serve -1.2 ptsserve chances shifted so the games projection agrees with the published chance
Conditions
- AgePegula 32.7, Andreeva 19.6small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →