WTA Tennis predictions Fri, Nov 13
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every WTA match. Methodology →
2 matches on this slate · 5–6 since Nov 8 (model V4) →
Games
#16
Muchova
#1
Andreeva
Biggest factor: Return edge · Andreeva
#10
Svitolina
#6
Sabalenka
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Sabalenka
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -3.5
- First line
- -3.5
- Latest
- -3.5
Andreeva -3.5 at -141
- Model
- 69.7%
- First line
- 68.9%
- Latest
- 68.9%
Moneyline Andreeva M. -261 / Muchova K. +207 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / BetRivers · 7:30 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / BetRivers · as of 7:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Muchova | Andreeva | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 63.912th of 728 | 65.34th of 728 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 45.643rd of 728 | 51.51st of 728 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 54.7815th of 728 | 58.401st of 728 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 54.8716th of 839 | 58.271st of 839 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 8 |
| Matches, 12 months | 53 | 68 |
| Matches rated | 449 | 259 |
Serve and return
| Muchova | Andreeva | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 55.5% | 64.1% |
| Return pts won | 35.9% | 44.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 63.6% | 81.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setAndreeva 77%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setAndreeva 86%from the serve and return chances, before the results rating
- Results ratingAndreeva 49%surface Elo from every result, all levels
- Published chanceAndreeva 70%fitted blend of the two chances above
- Games alignmentAndreeva serve -1.0 ptsserve chances shifted so the games projection agrees with the published chance
Conditions
- AgeAndreeva 19.6, Muchova 30.2small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- -3.5
- Latest
- -3.5
Sabalenka -3.5 at +100
- Model
- 62.4%
- First line
- 63.0%
- Latest
- 63.0%
Moneyline Sabalenka A. -195 / Svitolina E. +158 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / BetRivers · 7:30 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / BetRivers · as of 7:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Svitolina | Sabalenka | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 60.531st of 728 | 65.83rd of 728 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 49.94th of 728 | 46.923rd of 728 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 55.2311th of 728 | 56.346th of 728 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 55.2510th of 839 | 56.086th of 839 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 62 | 60 |
| Matches rated | 800 | 694 |
Serve and return
| Svitolina | Sabalenka | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 56.5% | 59.2% |
| Return pts won | 40.8% | 43.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 65.9% | 71.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setSabalenka 59%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSabalenka 64%from the serve and return chances, before the results rating
- Results ratingSabalenka 71%surface Elo from every result, all levels
- Published chanceSabalenka 62%fitted blend of the two chances above
- Games alignmentSabalenka serve +0.6 ptsserve chances shifted so the games projection agrees with the published chance
Conditions
- AgeSabalenka 28.5, Svitolina 32.2small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →