WTA Tennis predictions Thu, Nov 12
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every WTA match. Methodology →
2 matches on this slate · 4–6 since Nov 8 (model V4) →
Games
#5
Gauff
#14
Kostyuk
Biggest factor: Return edge · Gauff
#7
Noskova
#3
Pegula
Biggest factor: Return edge · Pegula
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -3.5
- First line
- -3.5
- Latest
- -3.5
Gauff -3.5 at -134
- Model
- 64.5%
- First line
- 68.1%
- Latest
- 68.1%
Moneyline Kostyuk M. +199 / Gauff C. -249 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / BetRivers · 7:33 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / BetRivers · as of 7:33 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Gauff | Kostyuk | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 62.814th of 728 | 61.126th of 728 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 50.43rd of 728 | 48.58th of 728 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 56.575th of 728 | 54.7616th of 728 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 56.555th of 839 | 55.0914th of 839 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 59 | 48 |
| Matches rated | 426 | 410 |
Serve and return
| Gauff | Kostyuk | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 58.3% | 54.5% |
| Return pts won | 45.5% | 41.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 70.0% | 61.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setGauff 63%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setGauff 69%from the serve and return chances, before the results rating
- Results ratingGauff 69%surface Elo from every result, all levels
- Published chanceGauff 64%fitted blend of the two chances above
- Games alignmentGauff serve +0.4 ptsserve chances shifted so the games projection agrees with the published chance
Conditions
- AgeKostyuk 24.4, Gauff 22.7small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -1.5
- First line
- +0.5
- Latest
- +0.5
Pegula +0.5 at -120
- Model
- 56.6%
- First line
- 47.9%
- Latest
- 47.9%
Moneyline Pegula J. -101 / Noskova L. -120 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / BetRivers · 7:33 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / BetRivers · as of 7:33 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Noskova | Pegula | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 65.92nd of 728 | 64.77th of 728 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 45.546th of 728 | 49.16th of 728 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 55.718th of 728 | 56.944th of 728 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 56.027th of 839 | 56.943rd of 839 |
| Wins, last 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 52 | 65 |
| Matches rated | 320 | 732 |
Serve and return
| Noskova | Pegula | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 60.9% | 62.0% |
| Return pts won | 38.0% | 39.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 75.4% | 77.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setPegula 54%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setPegula 56%from the serve and return chances, before the results rating
- Results ratingPegula 63%surface Elo from every result, all levels
- Published chancePegula 57%fitted blend of the two chances above
- Games alignmentPegula serve +0.6 ptsserve chances shifted so the games projection agrees with the published chance
Conditions
- AgePegula 32.7, Noskova 22.0small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →