WTA Tennis predictions Wed, Nov 11
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every WTA match. Methodology →
2 matches on this slate · 4–4 since Nov 8 (model V4) →
Games
#10
Muchova
#16
Svitolina
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Muchova
#2
Andreeva
#5
Sabalenka
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -0.5
- First line
- -1.5
- Latest
- -1.5
Muchova -1.5 at -127
- Model
- 52.9%
- First line
- 56.1%
- Latest
- 56.1%
Moneyline Svitolina E. +117 / Muchova K. -143 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / BetRivers · 7:31 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / BetRivers · as of 7:31 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Muchova | Svitolina | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 64.49th of 728 | 60.333rd of 728 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 45.941st of 728 | 49.54th of 728 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 55.1411th of 728 | 54.9115th of 728 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 55.2110th of 839 | 54.9316th of 839 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 52 | 61 |
| Matches rated | 448 | 799 |
Serve and return
| Muchova | Svitolina | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 57.9% | 57.2% |
| Return pts won | 42.8% | 42.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 69.1% | 67.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setMuchova 52%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setMuchova 54%from the serve and return chances, before the results rating
- Results ratingMuchova 54%surface Elo from every result, all levels
- Published chanceMuchova 53%fitted blend of the two chances above
- Games alignmentMuchova serve +0.1 ptsserve chances shifted so the games projection agrees with the published chance
Conditions
- AgeSvitolina 32.2, Muchova 30.2small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -0.5
- First line
- -0.5
- Latest
- -0.5
Sabalenka -0.5 at -109
- Model
- 51.7%
- First line
- 49.5%
- Latest
- 49.5%
Moneyline Sabalenka A. -108 / Andreeva M. -113 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / BetRivers · 7:31 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / BetRivers · as of 7:31 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Andreeva | Sabalenka | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 64.77th of 728 | 66.62nd of 728 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 50.71st of 728 | 47.612th of 728 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 57.691st of 728 | 57.084th of 728 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 57.592nd of 839 | 56.785th of 839 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 67 | 59 |
| Matches rated | 258 | 693 |
Serve and return
| Andreeva | Sabalenka | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.4% | 59.1% |
| Return pts won | 40.9% | 38.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 76.5% | 71.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setSabalenka 42%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSabalenka 38%from the serve and return chances, before the results rating
- Results ratingSabalenka 73%surface Elo from every result, all levels
- Published chanceSabalenka 52%fitted blend of the two chances above
- Games alignmentSabalenka serve +1.4 ptsserve chances shifted so the games projection agrees with the published chance
Conditions
- AgeSabalenka 28.5, Andreeva 19.5small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →