WTA Tennis predictions Tue, Nov 10
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every WTA match. Methodology →
2 matches on this slate · 3–3 since Nov 8 (model V4) →
Games
#6
Pegula
#10
Kostyuk
Biggest factor: Serve edge · Pegula
#8
Noskova
#3
Gauff
Biggest factor: Return edge · Gauff
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 60.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 60.7%
Decimal odds 2.41 / 1.56, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Pegula | Kostyuk | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 64.58th of 755 | 61.424th of 755 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 48.87th of 755 | 48.78th of 755 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 56.686th of 755 | 55.0513th of 755 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 56.676th of 871 | 55.3810th of 871 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 64 | 47 |
| Matches rated | 731 | 409 |
Serve and return
| Pegula | Kostyuk | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 58.7% | 56.4% |
| Return pts won | 43.6% | 41.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 70.7% | 65.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setPegula 58%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setPegula 62%from the serve and return chances, before the results rating
- Results ratingPegula 67%surface Elo from every result, all levels
- Published chancePegula 61%fitted blend of the two chances above
- Games alignmentPegula serve +0.6 ptsserve chances shifted so the games projection agrees with the published chance
Conditions
- AgeKostyuk 24.4, Pegula 32.7small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 63.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 60.2%
Decimal odds 1.57 / 2.37, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Noskova | Gauff | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 65.53rd of 755 | 63.414th of 755 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 44.857th of 755 | 50.71st of 755 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 55.1710th of 755 | 57.045th of 755 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 55.538th of 871 | 56.993rd of 871 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Matches, 12 months | 51 | 58 |
| Matches rated | 319 | 425 |
Serve and return
| Noskova | Gauff | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 58.8% | 62.5% |
| Return pts won | 37.5% | 41.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 71.1% | 78.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setGauff 62%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setGauff 68%from the serve and return chances, before the results rating
- Results ratingGauff 66%surface Elo from every result, all levels
- Published chanceGauff 63%fitted blend of the two chances above
- Games alignmentGauff serve +0.4 ptsserve chances shifted so the games projection agrees with the published chance
Conditions
- AgeGauff 22.7, Noskova 22.0small age adjustment to serve
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →