WTA Tennis predictions Fri, Oct 30
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every WTA match. Methodology →
7 matches on this slate · 48–32 since Oct 20 (model V2) →
Games
Guangzhou
#146
Dart
#53
Badosa
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Badosa holds 71% vs 56% · Badosa +14.8 pts
#58
Teichmann
#73
Quevedo
Set at line Teichmann 43.6% · model 49.0%
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Quevedo holds 67% vs 67% · Quevedo +0.6 pts
#167
Liu
Biggest factor: Return edge: Sun breaks 40% vs 35% · Sun +5.6 pts
#42
Tagger
Set at line Tagger 72.7% · model 77.5%
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Tagger holds 84% vs 67% · Tagger +17.0 pts
Tokyo
#86
Joint
#57
Rakhimova
Set at line Rakhimova 46.5% · model 54.4%
Biggest factor: Return edge: Rakhimova breaks 42% vs 39% · Rakhimova +3.1 pts
#140
Parks
#52
Pohankova
Set at line Pohankova 64.6% · model 73.6%
Biggest factor: Return edge: Pohankova breaks 31% vs 17% · Pohankova +14.4 pts
#9
Shnaider
#29
Eala
Set at line Shnaider 59.2% · model 63.3%
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Shnaider holds 70% vs 61% · Eala +8.9 pts
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -1.5
- First line
- +1.5
- Latest
- +1.5
Rakhimova +1.5 at -108
- Model
- 54.4%
- First line
- 44.6%
- Latest
- 46.5%
Moneyline Rakhimova K. +105 / Joint M. -128 (vig removed) · opened 44.6%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 44.6%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Wed 8:32 PM ET
- Latest
- Closing line · DraftKings / Pinnacle · 8:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Joint | Rakhimova | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 54.8137th of 766 | 55.6107th of 766 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 45.149th of 766 | 46.131st of 766 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.9575th of 766 | 50.8657th of 766 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.6986th of 887 | 50.7457th of 887 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 36 | 50 |
| Matches rated | 223 | 454 |
Serve and return
| Joint | Rakhimova | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 53.0% | 54.3% |
| Return pts won | 45.7% | 47.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 57.5% | 60.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setRakhimova 54%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setRakhimova 57%set by set, before calibration; published 54% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set38%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeRakhimova 25.2, Joint 20.5small age adjustment to serve
Model wta_chal_v2_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -11.5
- First line
- -3.5
- Latest
- -3.5
Pohankova -3.5 at -112
- Model
- 73.6%
- First line
- 64.6%
- Latest
- 64.6%
Moneyline Pohankova M. -210 / Parks A. +169 (vig removed)
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · 8:30 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 8:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Parks | Pohankova | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 57.460th of 766 | 59.737th of 766 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 39.2313th of 766 | 43.3105th of 766 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.28129th of 766 | 51.4846th of 766 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.18140th of 887 | 51.2352nd of 887 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 64 | 25 |
| Matches rated | 430 | 53 |
Serve and return
| Parks | Pohankova | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 57.8% | 65.1% |
| Return pts won | 34.9% | 42.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 68.7% | 83.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setPohankova 73%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setPohankova 83%set by set, before calibration; published 74% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set18%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgePohankova 18.0, Parks 25.8small age adjustment to serve
Model wta_chal_v2_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 71.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 72.1%
Decimal odds 1.31 / 3.39, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Dart | Badosa | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 53.5175th of 766 | 58.154th of 766 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 42.9118th of 766 | 44.470th of 766 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.20132nd of 766 | 51.2651st of 766 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.06146th of 887 | 51.2053rd of 887 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 46 | 43 |
| Matches rated | 634 | 555 |
Serve and return
| Dart | Badosa | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 52.3% | 58.6% |
| Return pts won | 41.4% | 47.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 55.7% | 70.5% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setBadosa 71%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBadosa 80%set by set, before calibration; published 71% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set34%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeBadosa 29.0, Dart 30.3small age adjustment to serve
Model wta_chal_v2_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 51.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 56.4%
Decimal odds 1.68 / 2.17, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Teichmann | Quevedo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 55.6 | 57.857th of 766 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 45.0 | 42.0151st of 766 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.27 | 49.8981st of 766 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 50.7258th of 887 | 50.0973rd of 887 |
| Wins, last 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Matches, 12 months | 17 | 38 |
| Matches rated | 549 | 206 |
Serve and return
| Teichmann | Quevedo | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 56.8% | 57.1% |
| Return pts won | 42.9% | 43.2% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 66.6% | 67.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setQuevedo 51%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setQuevedo 51%set by set, before calibration; published 51% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set38%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeQuevedo 20.7, Teichmann 29.3small age adjustment to serve
Model wta_chal_v2_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- -2.5
- First line
- -2.5
- Latest
- -2.5
Shnaider -2.5 at -106
- Model
- 63.3%
- First line
- 57.3%
- Latest
- 59.2%
Moneyline Eala A. +134 / Shnaider D. -164 (vig removed) · opened 57.3%
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 57.3%.
- First line
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · Wed 8:32 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings / Pinnacle · as of 8:30 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Shnaider | Eala | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 61.717th of 766 | 59.141st of 766 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 48.77th of 766 | 47.315th of 766 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 55.187th of 766 | 53.1828th of 766 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 55.039th of 887 | 53.1129th of 887 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 58 | 64 |
| Matches rated | 318 | 362 |
Serve and return
| Shnaider | Eala | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 58.5% | 54.6% |
| Return pts won | 45.4% | 41.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 70.3% | 61.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setShnaider 63%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setShnaider 70%set by set, before calibration; published 63% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set37%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeEala 21.4, Shnaider 22.6small age adjustment to serve
Model wta_chal_v2_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 58.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 39.2%
Decimal odds 2.40 / 1.55, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Liu | Sun | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 53.5178th of 766 | 52.9195th of 766 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 41.4185th of 766 | 43.1110th of 766 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.43175th of 766 | 47.99144th of 766 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.57167th of 887 | 47.34180th of 887 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 37 | 15 |
| Matches rated | 428 | 30 |
Serve and return
| Liu | Sun | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 54.0% | 56.3% |
| Return pts won | 43.7% | 46.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 59.8% | 65.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setSun 58%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSun 62%set by set, before calibration; published 58% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set37%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeSun 16.3, Liu 26.4small age adjustment to serve
Model wta_chal_v2_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 77.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 72.7%
Decimal odds 1.30 / 3.47, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
Head to head
| Shi | Tagger | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 54.5147th of 766 | 62.714th of 766 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 41.4187th of 766 | 41.5176th of 766 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.95147th of 766 | 52.1540th of 766 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.67164th of 887 | 51.9142nd of 887 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 40 | 51 |
| Matches rated | 231 | 128 |
Serve and return
| Shi | Tagger | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 57.2% | 65.9% |
| Return pts won | 34.1% | 42.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 67.4% | 84.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setTagger 77%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setTagger 87%set by set, before calibration; published 77% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set32%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeTagger 18.7, Shi 21.4small age adjustment to serve
Model wta_chal_v2_c7 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →