WTA Tennis predictions Sun, Nov 1
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every WTA match. Methodology →
8 matches on this slate · 66–36 since Oct 20 (model V2) →
Games
Chennai WTA
#139
Falei
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Falei holds 70% vs 48% · Falei +21.4 pts
#360
Kobori
#279
Okamura
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Okamura holds 61% vs 59% · Okamura +2.9 pts
#362
Yamaguchi
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Yamaguchi holds 63% vs 59% · Yamaguchi +3.7 pts
Guangzhou
#117
Dart
#36
Tagger
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Tagger holds 81% vs 61% · Tagger +19.7 pts
Hong Kong WTA
#289
Stojsavljevic
#70
Prozorova
Biggest factor: Return edge: Prozorova breaks 37% vs 18% · Prozorova +19.6 pts
#46
Sasnovich
Biggest factor: Return edge: Sasnovich breaks 44% vs 25% · Sasnovich +19.4 pts
#237
Pridankina
#181
Sakatsume
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Sakatsume holds 68% vs 64% · Sakatsume +4.0 pts
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 79.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 73.1%
Decimal odds 1.28 / 3.47, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Stojsavljevic | Prozorova | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 53.8162nd of 766 | 57.169th of 766 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 36.5497th of 766 | 43.3104th of 766 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 45.19285th of 766 | 50.2268th of 766 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.28289th of 887 | 50.1970th of 887 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 22 | 34 |
| Matches rated | 72 | 273 |
Serve and return
| Stojsavljevic | Prozorova | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 55.1% | 64.6% |
| Return pts won | 35.4% | 44.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 62.6% | 82.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawQualifying
- Chance to win a setProzorova 79%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setProzorova 89%set by set, before calibration; published 80% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set30%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeProzorova 23.1, Stojsavljevic 17.9small age adjustment to serve
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 77.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 71.5%
Decimal odds 1.31 / 3.29, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Lee | Sasnovich | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 54.8140th of 766 | 57.362nd of 766 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 39.4299th of 766 | 46.228th of 766 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.07190th of 766 | 51.7644th of 766 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.82213th of 887 | 51.6246th of 887 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 34 | 43 |
| Matches rated | 139 | 735 |
Serve and return
| Lee | Sasnovich | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 52.3% | 60.8% |
| Return pts won | 39.2% | 47.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 55.8% | 75.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawQualifying
- Chance to win a setSasnovich 77%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSasnovich 87%set by set, before calibration; published 78% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set31%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeSasnovich 32.6, Lee 24.9small age adjustment to serve
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 55.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 50.7%
Decimal odds 1.84 / 1.89, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Pridankina | Sakatsume | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 51.4261st of 766 | 55.5113th of 766 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 41.9156th of 766 | 39.9267th of 766 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.62210th of 766 | 47.72156th of 766 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.28237th of 887 | 47.34181st of 887 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 2 |
| Matches, 12 months | 36 | 44 |
| Matches rated | 259 | 389 |
Serve and return
| Pridankina | Sakatsume | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 55.7% | 57.4% |
| Return pts won | 42.6% | 44.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 63.9% | 67.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawQualifying
- Chance to win a setSakatsume 56%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSakatsume 59%set by set, before calibration; published 56% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set37%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeSakatsume 25.2, Pridankina 21.2small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchPridankina from claygames projection only, not the win chance
- Days since last event Not in the modelSakatsume 6, Pridankina 104counted from event start dates
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 79.0%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 65.7%
Decimal odds 1.42 / 2.72, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Zolotareva | Falei | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 49.2 | 53.7169th of 766 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 39.6 | 43.3105th of 766 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 44.40 | 48.50124th of 766 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.33285th of 887 | 48.24139th of 887 |
| Wins, last 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 17 | 33 |
| Matches rated | 91 | 261 |
Serve and return
| Zolotareva | Falei | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 49.3% | 58.2% |
| Return pts won | 41.8% | 50.7% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 48.2% | 69.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawQualifying
- Chance to win a setFalei 79%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setFalei 88%set by set, before calibration; published 79% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set30%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelFalei 174, Zolotareva 188counted from event start dates
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 79.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 74.8%
Decimal odds 1.27 / 3.76, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Dart | Tagger | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 53.8164th of 766 | 63.312th of 766 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 43.984th of 766 | 42.3143rd of 766 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.85112th of 766 | 52.8132nd of 766 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.68117th of 887 | 52.5636th of 887 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 48 | 53 |
| Matches rated | 636 | 130 |
Serve and return
| Dart | Tagger | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 54.6% | 63.9% |
| Return pts won | 36.1% | 45.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 61.4% | 81.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setTagger 79%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setTagger 89%set by set, before calibration; published 79% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set30%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeTagger 18.7, Dart 30.3small age adjustment to serve
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 54.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 66.4%
Decimal odds 1.40 / 2.77, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Kobori | Okamura | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 49.7339th of 766 | 51.7242nd of 766 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 40.1253rd of 766 | 39.6285th of 766 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 44.89300th of 766 | 45.66258th of 766 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.28360th of 887 | 45.42279th of 887 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 15 | 26 |
| Matches rated | 365 | 605 |
Serve and return
| Kobori | Okamura | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 53.4% | 54.6% |
| Return pts won | 45.4% | 46.6% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 58.5% | 61.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawQualifying
- Chance to win a setOkamura 54%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setOkamura 56%set by set, before calibration; published 54% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set38%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeOkamura 31.1, Kobori 28.1small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelOkamura 41, Kobori 167counted from event start dates
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 50.6%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 51.7%
Decimal odds 1.93 / 1.80, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Falkowska | Morvayova | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 50.7290th of 766 | 52.0229th of 766 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 38.3383rd of 766 | 36.7485th of 766 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 44.51321st of 766 | 44.39330th of 766 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.58339th of 887 | 43.82384th of 887 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 29 | 39 |
| Matches rated | 356 | 455 |
Serve and return
| Falkowska | Morvayova | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 57.6% | 57.4% |
| Return pts won | 42.6% | 42.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 68.3% | 67.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawQualifying
- Chance to win a setFalkowska 51%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setFalkowska 51%set by set, before calibration; published 51% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set38%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeMorvayova 25.7, Falkowska 26.4small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchFalkowska from claygames projection only, not the win chance
- Days since last event Not in the modelMorvayova 41, Falkowska 160counted from event start dates
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 55.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 64.1%
Decimal odds 1.46 / 2.61, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Kulambayeva | Yamaguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 48.5 | 50.6294th of 766 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 38.9 | 38.3381st of 766 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 43.65 | 44.47323rd of 766 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.47346th of 887 | 44.26362nd of 887 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 17 | 36 |
| Matches rated | 420 | 341 |
Serve and return
| Kulambayeva | Yamaguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 53.7% | 55.2% |
| Return pts won | 44.8% | 46.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 59.2% | 62.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawQualifying
- Chance to win a setYamaguchi 55%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setYamaguchi 58%set by set, before calibration; published 55% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set38%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeYamaguchi 27.4, Kulambayeva 26.6small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelYamaguchi 41, Kulambayeva 160counted from event start dates
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →