WTA Tennis predictions Mon, Nov 2
Win probabilities, expected games and total games for every WTA match. Methodology →
11 matches on this slate · 72–39 since Oct 20 (model V2) →
Games
Chennai WTA
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Sawangkaew holds 65% vs 53% · Sawangkaew +12.3 pts
Biggest factor: Return edge: Vandromme breaks 46% vs 34% · Vandromme +12.0 pts
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Linette holds 67% vs 66% · Falei +1.2 pts
Biggest factor: Return edge: Fruhvirtova breaks 43% vs 33% · Fruhvirtova +10.1 pts
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Waltert holds 72% vs 49% · Yamalapalli +22.9 pts
Hong Kong WTA
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Boulter holds 64% vs 59% · Golubic +5.1 pts
Biggest factor: Return edge: Prozorova breaks 38% vs 33% · Liu +4.8 pts
Biggest factor: Return edge: Volynets breaks 45% vs 37% · Volynets +7.4 pts
Biggest factor: Serve edge: Sakkari holds 76% vs 60% · Lee +15.9 pts
Biggest factor: Return edge: Stoiana breaks 51% vs 20% · Williams +30.6 pts
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 57.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 56.4%
Decimal odds 2.17 / 1.68, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Boulter | Golubic | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 56.280th of 766 | 54.5126th of 766 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 44.177th of 766 | 44.176th of 766 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 50.1469th of 766 | 49.3195th of 766 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 50.0470th of 887 | 49.4793rd of 887 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 44 | 47 |
| Matches rated | 539 | 799 |
Serve and return
| Boulter | Golubic | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 55.6% | 53.4% |
| Return pts won | 46.6% | 44.4% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 63.6% | 58.5% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setBoulter 58%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setBoulter 61%set by set, before calibration; published 57% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set37%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeGolubic 34.1, Boulter 30.3small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelGolubic 14, Boulter 14counted from event start dates
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 57.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 55.7%
Decimal odds 2.14 / 1.70, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Prozorova | Liu | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 55.694th of 766 | 54.9114th of 766 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 43.786th of 766 | 42.8122nd of 766 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 49.6883rd of 766 | 48.85112th of 766 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 49.6482nd of 887 | 48.90113th of 887 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 34 | 38 |
| Matches rated | 291 | 451 |
Serve and return
| Prozorova | Liu | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 57.1% | 55.0% |
| Return pts won | 45.0% | 42.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 67.2% | 62.4% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setProzorova 57%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setProzorova 61%set by set, before calibration; published 57% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set38%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeLiu 26.5, Prozorova 23.1small age adjustment to serve
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 60.7%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 44.1%
Decimal odds 2.14 / 1.69, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Sasnovich | Volynets | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 56.473rd of 766 | 57.056th of 766 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 45.937th of 766 | 47.512th of 766 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 51.1653rd of 766 | 52.2240th of 766 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 50.9153rd of 887 | 52.2538th of 887 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 4 |
| Matches, 12 months | 43 | 48 |
| Matches rated | 754 | 440 |
Serve and return
| Sasnovich | Volynets | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 52.1% | 55.1% |
| Return pts won | 44.9% | 47.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 55.1% | 62.6% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setVolynets 61%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setVolynets 66%set by set, before calibration; published 61% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set37%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeVolynets 24.8, Sasnovich 32.6small age adjustment to serve
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 73.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 76.4%
Decimal odds 4.02 / 1.24, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Sakkari | Lee | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 60.624th of 766 | 54.8117th of 766 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 44.952nd of 766 | 42.9119th of 766 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 52.7833rd of 766 | 48.85113th of 766 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 52.4535th of 887 | 48.52134th of 887 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 44 | 34 |
| Matches rated | 804 | 166 |
Serve and return
| Sakkari | Lee | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 61.0% | 53.9% |
| Return pts won | 46.1% | 39.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 75.7% | 59.8% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setSakkari 73%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSakkari 82%set by set, before calibration; published 73% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set33%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeLee 24.9, Sakkari 31.3small age adjustment to serve
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 67.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 60.6%
Decimal odds 1.56 / 2.40, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Hontama | Sawangkaew | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 51.4235th of 766 | 54.4129th of 766 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 42.2145th of 766 | 43.980th of 766 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 46.80198th of 766 | 49.1798th of 766 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 46.65214th of 887 | 49.15104th of 887 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 3 |
| Matches, 12 months | 38 | 49 |
| Matches rated | 483 | 337 |
Serve and return
| Hontama | Sawangkaew | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 51.2% | 56.3% |
| Return pts won | 43.7% | 48.8% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 53.0% | 65.3% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setSawangkaew 67%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setSawangkaew 75%set by set, before calibration; published 67% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set35%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeSawangkaew 24.3, Hontama 27.2small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelSawangkaew 7, Hontama 14counted from event start dates
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 67.1%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 75.7%
Decimal odds 1.25 / 3.90, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Okamura | Vandromme | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 51.3236th of 766 | 53.5151st of 766 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 40.5221st of 766 | 43.0112th of 766 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 45.94225th of 766 | 48.25138th of 766 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 45.71254th of 887 | 48.07146th of 887 |
| Wins, last 10 | 5 | 8 |
| Matches, 12 months | 26 | 40 |
| Matches rated | 629 | 128 |
Serve and return
| Okamura | Vandromme | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 51.7% | 56.7% |
| Return pts won | 43.3% | 48.3% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 54.2% | 66.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setVandromme 67%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setVandromme 75%set by set, before calibration; published 67% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set35%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- Days since last event Not in the modelVandromme 182, Okamura 42counted from event start dates
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 51.8%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 65.4%
Decimal odds 2.72 / 1.44, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Linette | Falei | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 56.568th of 766 | 52.6178th of 766 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 40.5225th of 766 | 42.3142nd of 766 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.48131st of 766 | 47.49172nd of 766 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.75120th of 887 | 47.33185th of 887 |
| Wins, last 10 | 3 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 43 | 33 |
| Matches rated | 847 | 282 |
Serve and return
| Linette | Falei | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 57.0% | 56.5% |
| Return pts won | 43.5% | 43.0% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 67.1% | 65.9% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setLinette 52%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setLinette 53%set by set, before calibration; published 52% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set38%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeFalei 22.5, Linette 34.7small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelFalei 175, Linette 7counted from event start dates
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 89.4%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 82.4%
Decimal odds 5.37 / 1.15, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Stoiana | Williams | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 53.8142nd of 766 | 51.7221st of 766 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 43.590th of 766 | 35.0591st of 766 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 48.69122nd of 766 | 43.33383rd of 766 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 48.77118th of 887 | 43.43409th of 887 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 0 |
| Matches, 12 months | 43 | 13 |
| Matches rated | 143 | 864 |
Serve and return
| Stoiana | Williams | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 63.1% | 49.6% |
| Return pts won | 50.4% | 36.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 79.7% | 49.1% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setStoiana 88%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setStoiana 96%set by set, before calibration; published 89% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set23%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeWilliams 46.4, Stoiana 23.5small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelWilliams 7, Stoiana 14counted from event start dates
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 64.5%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 64.2%
Decimal odds 1.47 / 2.64, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Falkowska | Fruhvirtova | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 50.1300th of 766 | 51.5227th of 766 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 38.9329th of 766 | 41.1202nd of 766 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 44.48308th of 766 | 46.30213th of 766 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.26346th of 887 | 45.99239th of 887 |
| Wins, last 10 | 6 | 2 |
| Matches, 12 months | 29 | 32 |
| Matches rated | 389 | 296 |
Serve and return
| Falkowska | Fruhvirtova | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 52.9% | 57.1% |
| Return pts won | 42.9% | 47.1% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 57.1% | 67.2% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setFruhvirtova 65%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setFruhvirtova 71%set by set, before calibration; published 65% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set35%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeFruhvirtova 21.5, Falkowska 26.4small age adjustment to serve
- Surface switchFalkowska from claygames projection only, not the win chance
- Days since last event Not in the modelFruhvirtova 33, Falkowska 161counted from event start dates
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 50.2%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 38.8%
Decimal odds 1.53 / 2.41, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Kulambayeva | Yamaguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 49.2 | 49.2351st of 766 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 38.5 | 38.6349th of 766 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 43.87 | 43.88347th of 766 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 44.41332nd of 887 | 43.65392nd of 887 |
| Wins, last 10 | 4 | 5 |
| Matches, 12 months | 17 | 36 |
| Matches rated | 439 | 359 |
Serve and return
| Kulambayeva | Yamaguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 54.5% | 54.4% |
| Return pts won | 45.6% | 45.5% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 61.1% | 61.0% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setKulambayeva 50%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setKulambayeva 50%set by set, before calibration; published 50% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set38%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeYamaguchi 27.4, Kulambayeva 26.6small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelYamaguchi 42, Kulambayeva 161counted from event start dates
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →
How we got this
Model vs market
- Model
- 80.9%
- First line
- –
- Latest
- 85.0%
Decimal odds 6.30 / 1.11, bookmaker margin removed
- Latest
- Tennis Explorer odds when the prediction was made
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Model vs market record →
Head to head
| Waltert | Yamalapalli | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts won, hard% | 52.8171st of 766 | 47.4487th of 766 |
| Return pts won, hard% | 41.8163rd of 766 | 37.7410th of 766 |
| Hard rating% pts vs avg | 47.31178th of 766 | 42.52447th of 766 |
| All-surface rating% pts vs avg | 47.68166th of 887 | 42.21513th of 887 |
| Wins, last 10 | 2 | 6 |
| Matches, 12 months | 43 | 25 |
| Matches rated | 508 | 257 |
Serve and return
| Waltert | Yamalapalli | |
|---|---|---|
| Serve pts wonthis match, hard | 59.1% | 49.5% |
| Return pts won | 50.5% | 40.9% |
| Hold servechance to win a service game | 71.6% | 48.7% |
What moves this game
- SurfaceHardratings blend this surface with all surfaces
- FormatBest of 3
- LevelTour
- DrawMain draw
- Chance to win a setWaltert 80%from both hold chances
- Match, set by setWaltert 90%set by set, before calibration; published 81% after tempering toward 50%
- Deciding set29%chance the match goes the distance
Conditions
- AgeYamalapalli 25.9, Waltert 25.9small age adjustment to serve
- Days since last event Not in the modelYamalapalli 154, Waltert 7counted from event start dates
Model V2 · data as of · Sources: TennisMyLife (TML) WTA results, Jeff Sackmann WTA archive, tennisexplorer.com schedule. How the models work →