NHL
Model record
56–30
favorite straight-up · last 30 days
65.1%
favorite win rate (86 graded)
2.2
goals: average miss on the projected margin
1.9
goals: average miss on the projected total
Day by day
3–2
Sep 29
2–1
Sep 30
6–2
Oct 1
1–4
Oct 2
11–2
Oct 3
4–1
Oct 4
3–1
Oct 5
5–4
Oct 6
1–2
Oct 7
7–3
Oct 8
2–2
Oct 9
9–5
Oct 10
2–1
Oct 11
favorite won · favorite lost
Calibration
50%–60%
61.1% n=54
60%–70%
72.4% n=29
bar = how often the favorite actually won · notch = what the model predicted
Recently graded
| Model favorite | Result | Win % | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Oct 11 → | |||
| CAR | ✓ hit | 68.1% | CAR 4, PHI 1 |
| WSH | ✗ miss | 63.9% | SEA 5, WSH 3 |
| NYR | ✓ hit | 76.9% | VAN 2, NYR 6 |
| Sat, Oct 10 → | |||
| BUF | ✗ miss | 51.9% | UTA 4, BUF 1 |
| MTL | ✓ hit | 51.9% | DET 0, MTL 1 |
| OTT | ✓ hit | 66.5% | NSH 2, OTT 3 |
| DAL | ✗ miss | 56.9% | DAL 1, PIT 2 |
| CAR | ✓ hit | 67.7% | CAR 5, CHI 2 |
| CBJ | ✗ miss | 50.1% | CBJ 3, STL 5 |
| COL | ✗ miss | 68.8% | TOR 6, COL 3 |
| TBL | ✓ hit | 54.6% | TBL 5, NYI 3 |
| ANA | ✓ hit | 58.5% | ANA 4, CGY 2 |
| VGK | ✓ hit | 66.8% | LAK 1, VGK 2 |
| FLA | ✗ miss | 53.4% | MIN 4, FLA 1 |
| EDM | ✓ hit | 57.5% | EDM 3, SJS 1 |
| NJD | ✓ hit | 66.2% | VAN 1, NJD 4 |
| BOS | ✓ hit | 64.6% | PHI 1, BOS 5 |
10 earlier slates
| Model favorite | Result | Win % | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Oct 9 → | |||
| DET | ✗ miss | 61.9% | SEA 6, DET 3 |
| WSH | ✓ hit | 52.5% | NYR 1, WSH 3 |
| CBJ | ✓ hit | 52.3% | PIT 2, CBJ 3 |
| WPG | ✗ miss | 53.7% | ANA 5, WPG 1 |
| Thu, Oct 8 → | |||
| UTA | ✗ miss | 53.5% | UTA 1, BOS 6 |
| DAL | ✓ hit | 56.1% | DAL 4, BUF 0 |
| MTL | ✗ miss | 57.2% | NSH 5, MTL 2 |
| OTT | ✓ hit | 68.1% | PHI 1, OTT 2 |
| TBL | ✓ hit | 57.5% | MIN 2, TBL 3 |
| CAR | ✓ hit | 78.1% | VAN 2, CAR 7 |
| NYI | ✓ hit | 67.2% | CHI 1, NYI 4 |
| STL | ✗ miss | 59.4% | SJS 3, STL 2 |
| COL | ✓ hit | 62.3% | COL 7, CGY 3 |
| VGK | ✓ hit | 69.8% | TOR 3, VGK 4 |
| Wed, Oct 7 → | |||
| WSH | ✓ hit | 53.6% | PIT 3, WSH 5 |
| COL | ✗ miss | 57.9% | COL 2, WPG 3 |
| ANA | ✗ miss | 52.8% | EDM 5, ANA 2 |
| Tue, Oct 6 → | |||
| TOR | ✓ hit | 52.9% | NSH 4, TOR 5 |
| CAR | ✓ hit | 57.3% | CAR 6, MTL 4 |
| OTT | ✗ miss | 50.2% | OTT 3, DET 5 |
| NJD | ✗ miss | 55.6% | UTA 5, NJD 3 |
| NYR | ✓ hit | 59.8% | NYI 2, NYR 5 |
| MIN | ✗ miss | 52.2% | MIN 2, BUF 3 |
| STL | ✗ miss | 59.4% | STL 2, CHI 4 |
| VGK | ✓ hit | 55.0% | VGK 6, SEA 2 |
| FLA | ✓ hit | 50.7% | FLA 2, LAK 1 |
| Mon, Oct 5 → | |||
| TBL | ✓ hit | 66.9% | PHI 1, TBL 4 |
| OTT | ✓ hit | 53.2% | OTT 4, BOS 1 |
| PIT | ✗ miss | 66.0% | WPG 3, PIT 2 |
| DAL | ✓ hit | 65.3% | SJS 0, DAL 5 |
| Sun, Oct 4 → | |||
| ANA | ✓ hit | 52.9% | FLA 2, ANA 3 |
| SEA | ✓ hit | 62.6% | CGY 1, SEA 6 |
| VGK | ✓ hit | 63.0% | VGK 3, VAN 2 |
| NYR | ✓ hit | 52.1% | UTA 2, NYR 4 |
| DET | ✗ miss | 57.7% | WPG 3, DET 2 |
| Sat, Oct 3 → | |||
| BUF | ✓ hit | 61.9% | CHI 3, BUF 4 |
| OTT | ✓ hit | 58.2% | OTT 3, TOR 2 |
| TBL | ✓ hit | 57.1% | WSH 1, TBL 3 |
| CAR | ✓ hit | 54.8% | CAR 3, PHI 2 |
| PIT | ✓ hit | 60.4% | MTL 5, PIT 6 |
| UTA | ✓ hit | 51.6% | UTA 4, CBJ 1 |
| EDM | ✓ hit | 56.3% | SEA 1, EDM 3 |
| NJD | ✗ miss | 52.9% | NJD 0, NYI 6 |
| DAL | ✗ miss | 51.0% | DAL 1, NSH 2 |
| MIN | ✓ hit | 62.4% | BOS 1, MIN 4 |
| COL | ✓ hit | 66.3% | STL 1, COL 6 |
| VAN | ✓ hit | 52.7% | CGY 1, VAN 4 |
| SJS | ✓ hit | 50.9% | LAK 4, SJS 5 |
| Fri, Oct 2 → | |||
| DET | ✗ miss | 58.2% | NYR 2, DET 0 |
| CAR | ✗ miss | 62.8% | WSH 5, CAR 2 |
| BOS | ✓ hit | 50.8% | BOS 4, WPG 3 |
| DAL | ✗ miss | 62.1% | STL 4, DAL 0 |
| VGK | ✗ miss | 60.6% | ANA 4, VGK 3 |
| Thu, Oct 1 → | |||
| NJD | ✓ hit | 59.7% | PHI 2, NJD 3 |
| TBL | ✗ miss | 56.8% | TBL 1, NYR 5 |
| CBJ | ✓ hit | 56.4% | BUF 3, CBJ 6 |
| MIN | ✓ hit | 50.1% | MIN 3, NSH 1 |
| UTA | ✓ hit | 67.2% | CHI 0, UTA 6 |
| CGY | ✗ miss | 54.1% | SEA 6, CGY 1 |
| EDM | ✓ hit | 59.9% | EDM 9, VAN 7 |
| SJS | ✓ hit | 52.5% | FLA 3, SJS 4 |
| Wed, Sep 30 → | |||
| PHI | ✗ miss | 53.7% | PIT 7, PHI 0 |
| COL | ✓ hit | 62.1% | LAK 4, COL 8 |
Player props calibration
0%–10%
5.2% n=2517
10%–20%
14.0% n=3153
20%–30%
23.0% n=2353
30%–50%
36.1% n=2395
50%–70%
56.5% n=848
70%–100%
79.0% n=195
bar = how often it actually happened · notch = what the model predicted · pooled across every probability market, because per market there are too few to bucket
| Market | Graded | Predicted | Actually happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime Goal | 2748 | 15.5% | 14.9% |
| Assist 1+ | 1655 | 24.6% | 23.7% |
| SOG 2+ | 1655 | 43.8% | 40.9% |
| SOG 3+ | 1655 | 21.8% | 20.6% |
| Point 1+ | 1655 | 35.5% | 33.2% |
| Points 2+ | 1655 | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Tims Pick | 438 | 20.2% | 20.8% |
Player props accuracy
| Market | Graded | Avg miss | Bias | Projected vs actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ice Time | 2749 | 1.97 | +0.01 | 16.59 vs 16.58 |
| PP Time | 2749 | 0.81 | -0.13 | 1.40 vs 1.53 |
| Expected Goals | 1655 | 0.27 | +0.01 | 0.18 vs 0.17 |
| Shots on Goal | 1655 | 1.01 | +0.07 | 1.57 vs 1.50 |
Last 60 days. Bias is projected minus actual: + means the model projects high, and a faded bias is within noise. Not graded: 1,937 (843 did not play, 1,094 with no reliable actual).