NHL predictions Sun, Nov 8
Win probabilities, projected goals and totals for every NHL game, plus each skater's chance to score. Methodology →
6 games on this slate · model went 5–1 · 16–5 since Nov 6 (model V4) →
Games
Biggest factor: Goaltending · BOS +0.3 goals
Biggest factor: 5-on-5 play · VGK +0.3 goals
Biggest factor: 5-on-5 play · TBL +0.6 goals
Biggest factor: 5-on-5 play · NJD +0.7 goals
Biggest factor: Home ice · CGY +0.3 goals
Biggest factor: 5-on-5 play · PIT +0.3 goals
How we got this
Forwards
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
David Pastrnak
|
43% | 0.56 | 76% | 3.34 | 83% | 21:05 | 3:48 |
Sam Reinhart
|
33% | 0.39 | 57% | 2.80 | 75% | 20:32 | 4:48 |
Brady Tkachuk
|
32% | 0.39 | 56% | 3.52 | 85% | 17:26 | 4:31 |
Morgan Geekie
|
29% | 0.35 | 52% | 1.78 | 52% | 16:10 | 3:23 |
Pavel Zacha
|
29% | 0.34 | 56% | 1.76 | 52% | 19:07 | 3:11 |
JJ Peterka
|
29% | 0.34 | 52% | 2.02 | 59% | 18:22 | 1:58 |
Carter Verhaeghe
|
28% | 0.32 | 51% | 2.56 | 71% | 18:27 | 4:09 |
Matthew Tkachuk
|
27% | 0.32 | 64% | 2.54 | 71% | 18:46 | 4:43 |
Elias Lindholm
|
24% | 0.28 | 50% | 1.65 | 49% | 17:41 | 3:04 |
Sam Bennett
|
23% | 0.26 | 42% | 2.45 | 69% | 17:03 | 2:06 |
Fraser Minten
|
21% | 0.24 | 40% | 1.63 | 48% | 16:21 | 1:38 |
Anton Lundell
|
19% | 0.21 | 37% | 2.13 | 62% | 17:31 | 1:46 |
Casey Mittelstadt
|
17% | 0.18 | 39% | 1.18 | 33% | 14:48 | 1:26 |
Michael Eyssimont
|
14% | 0.15 | 25% | 1.55 | 45% | 11:08 | 0:10 |
Lars Eller
|
13% | 0.14 | 29% | 1.42 | 41% | 16:17 | 1:02 |
Eetu Luostarinen
|
12% | 0.13 | 28% | 1.39 | 40% | 16:20 | 1:17 |
Marat Khusnutdinov
|
12% | 0.13 | 26% | 0.90 | 23% | 14:04 | 0:02 |
Mark Kastelic
|
12% | 0.12 | 22% | 1.02 | 27% | 10:58 | 0:05 |
Matthew Poitras
|
11% | 0.12 | 26% | 1.03 | 27% | 9:11 | 0:21 |
Tanner Jeannot
|
10% | 0.10 | 22% | 0.81 | 20% | 10:52 | 0:06 |
Cole Reinhardt
|
10% | 0.10 | 21% | 1.17 | 33% | 12:48 | 0:00 |
Cole Schwindt
|
7% | 0.07 | 16% | 0.86 | 21% | 8:46 | 0:15 |
Garnet Hathaway
|
5% | 0.05 | 12% | 0.62 | 13% | 9:59 | 0:02 |
Bokondji Imama
|
5% | 0.05 | 11% | 0.70 | 16% | 7:04 | 0:03 |
Defense
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Charlie McAvoy
|
14% | 0.15 | 53% | 1.63 | 48% | 24:03 | 3:18 |
Seth Jones
|
12% | 0.12 | 47% | 2.09 | 61% | 24:17 | 4:26 |
Mason Lohrei
|
7% | 0.08 | 29% | 0.98 | 26% | 17:43 | 1:29 |
Hampus Lindholm
|
7% | 0.07 | 28% | 1.28 | 36% | 20:58 | 0:26 |
Aaron Ekblad
|
7% | 0.07 | 29% | 1.44 | 42% | 21:31 | 1:45 |
Nikita Zadorov
|
5% | 0.05 | 24% | 1.07 | 29% | 19:30 | 0:04 |
Gustav Forsling
|
5% | 0.05 | 23% | 1.47 | 43% | 20:55 | 0:24 |
Frederic Brunet
|
5% | 0.05 | 26% | 0.83 | 20% | 15:42 | 1:03 |
Uvis Balinskis
|
4% | 0.05 | 20% | 1.11 | 31% | 15:26 | 1:40 |
Niko Mikkola
|
4% | 0.04 | 15% | 1.11 | 30% | 18:43 | 0:05 |
Will Borgen
|
4% | 0.04 | 18% | 0.91 | 23% | 19:16 | 0:03 |
Dmitry Kulikov
|
2% | 0.02 | 12% | 0.66 | 14% | 15:06 | 0:01 |
No NHL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their share of the team's expected goals is spread across the dressed lineup.
FLA
Aleksander BarkovFBrad MarchandFJonah GadjovichFSandis VilmanisF
BOS
James HagensF
Anytime Goal excludes shootout goals. Lineups are projected, so a late scratch can change them. Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Goaltending
FLA- Rating
- -0.13
- DailyFaceoff
- Confirmed
BOS- Rating
- +0.18
- DailyFaceoff
- Confirmed
Rating: goals saved per game against a league-average goalie, reset each season. The model uses DailyFaceoff's starter once confirmed or likely, else its own pick.
Recommended bet
- Final
- Panthers 1, Bruins 4
- Result
- BOS won by 3
- Why
- Model 62.3%, first price 58.3%
Model vs market
- Model
- 62.3%
- First line
- 55.1%
- Close
- 58.3%
Moneyline BOS -155 / FLA +130 (vig removed) · opened 55.1%
- Model
- 6.4
- First line
- 6.5
- Close
- 5.5
Over -120 / Under +100 · opened 6.5
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 6 captures, first 55.1%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Sat 12:21 PM ET
- Close
- Closing line · DraftKings · 12:51 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
How the numbers are built
- 5-on-5 playexpected goals for minus against at 5-on-5 FLA +0.01
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals FLA +0.29
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net BOS +0.07
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it BOS +0.29
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances BOS +0.31
- Back-to-back (FLA)FLA played yesterday BOS +0.22
- Total shrinkgame total pulled toward a league-average matchup's; the margin is kept 0.00
- Lineupprojected skaters tonight and last game's dressed skaters vs each team's usual BOS +0.20
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score FLA +0.03
- 5-on-5 playboth teams' 5-on-5 expected goals3.89
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals +1.52
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net +0.87
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it -0.00
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances -0.05
- Back-to-backFLA played yesterday, plus a credit offsetting the average back-to-back effects -0.01
- Total shrinkgame total pulled toward a league-average matchup's; the margin is kept +0.11
- Lineupprojected skaters tonight and last game's dressed skaters vs each team's usual +0.04
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score -0.01
Team comparison
FLA |
BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| Power ratinggoals/gm | 0.0913th of 32 | 0.1710th of 32 |
| 5-on-5 offensexGF/60 | 2.3922nd of 32 | 2.5910th of 32 |
| 5-on-5 defensexGA/60 | 2.329th of 32 | 2.5215th of 32 |
| Power playxGF/60 | 9.642nd of 32 | 7.1919th of 32 |
| Penalty killxGA/60 | 6.462nd of 32 | 7.2912th of 32 |
| Power-play minutesmin | 5.3 | 5.2 |
| Starting goalieGSAx/gm | -0.1321st of 32 | 0.184th of 32 |
Goaltending
| FLA | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Jacob Markstrom | Jeremy Swayman |
| StatusProjected = our pick: most starts in his team's last 10 | Confirmed | Confirmed |
| Rating (GSAx/gm)0 = league average; this season blended with his last | -0.13 (#21) | +0.18 (#4) |
What moves this game
- Regulation winBOS 50%, FLA 27%
- Goes to overtime23%tied after 60 minutes
- Decided in a shootout10%
- Win in OT or shootoutBOS 12%, FLA 11%
Conditions
- Home ice+4.7% home goalsaway goals divided by the same factor
- Back-to-back (FLA)Yes-0.12 goals to FLA
- Back-to-back (BOS)No
- Days since last game Not in the modelBOS 3 days, FLA 1 daybeyond back-to-backs, rest is not modelled
- Skater lineupsProjected: BOS +3.5%, FLA -2.8% goalsDailyFaceoff projected lines, not confirmed participation
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: NHL API (schedule, results), MoneyPuck (expected goals, GSAx), DailyFaceoff (starting goalies), RotoWire (injuries), ESPN (goalie injuries), DailyFaceoff (projected lineups), NHL API (player box scores), MoneyPuck (player expected goals). How the models work →
How we got this
Forwards
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Tage Thompson
|
38% | 0.49 | 61% | 3.14 | 81% | 19:05 | 3:39 |
Jack Eichel
|
33% | 0.40 | 67% | 2.93 | 78% | 20:38 | 3:15 |
Jack Quinn
|
30% | 0.35 | 55% | 2.39 | 68% | 17:55 | 3:46 |
Mark Stone
|
29% | 0.34 | 60% | 2.00 | 59% | 18:57 | 3:06 |
Mitch Marner
|
26% | 0.30 | 65% | 2.14 | 62% | 20:42 | 3:39 |
Tomas Hertl
|
26% | 0.30 | 46% | 2.15 | 62% | 14:57 | 3:12 |
Zach Benson
|
25% | 0.29 | 54% | 2.10 | 61% | 19:29 | 3:25 |
Noah Ostlund
|
23% | 0.26 | 47% | 1.81 | 53% | 17:53 | 3:25 |
Trevor Connelly
|
21% | 0.24 | 40% | 1.76 | 52% | 13:55 | 2:18 |
William Karlsson
|
21% | 0.23 | 39% | 1.81 | 53% | 17:26 | 1:09 |
Jason Zucker
|
20% | 0.23 | 39% | 1.56 | 46% | 13:27 | 2:03 |
Josh Doan
|
19% | 0.22 | 36% | 1.64 | 48% | 14:30 | 1:11 |
Victor Olofsson
|
19% | 0.21 | 36% | 1.90 | 56% | 13:12 | 2:42 |
Ivan Barbashev
|
18% | 0.20 | 42% | 1.45 | 42% | 14:58 | 0:58 |
Jiri Kulich
|
18% | 0.19 | 33% | 1.53 | 45% | 14:05 | 1:18 |
Brett Howden
|
17% | 0.19 | 31% | 1.38 | 40% | 15:22 | 0:22 |
Josh Norris
|
15% | 0.17 | 32% | 1.18 | 33% | 13:29 | 1:22 |
Braeden Bowman
|
15% | 0.16 | 31% | 1.24 | 35% | 12:31 | 1:06 |
Peyton Krebs
|
10% | 0.11 | 31% | 0.93 | 24% | 14:03 | 0:06 |
Marc Gatcomb
|
9% | 0.10 | 17% | 1.19 | 33% | 9:44 | 0:01 |
Beck Malenstyn
|
8% | 0.08 | 17% | 0.75 | 17% | 12:05 | 0:01 |
Nic Dowd
|
7% | 0.08 | 18% | 0.66 | 14% | 10:43 | 0:01 |
Tyson Kozak
|
7% | 0.08 | 17% | 0.64 | 13% | 11:14 | 0:01 |
Sam Carrick
|
7% | 0.08 | 16% | 0.85 | 21% | 9:16 | 0:01 |
Defense
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Rasmus Dahlin
|
17% | 0.18 | 57% | 2.37 | 67% | 23:59 | 3:47 |
Shea Theodore
|
10% | 0.11 | 39% | 1.76 | 52% | 22:06 | 1:20 |
Rasmus Andersson
|
10% | 0.11 | 30% | 1.77 | 52% | 20:01 | 1:11 |
Olen Zellweger
|
10% | 0.11 | 26% | 1.62 | 48% | 20:01 | 0:21 |
Owen Power
|
9% | 0.10 | 40% | 1.46 | 42% | 24:05 | 1:25 |
Noah Hanifin
|
7% | 0.08 | 27% | 1.58 | 46% | 20:50 | 0:10 |
Mattias Samuelsson
|
7% | 0.07 | 30% | 1.24 | 35% | 23:23 | 0:03 |
Brayden McNabb
|
5% | 0.05 | 21% | 1.15 | 32% | 20:25 | 0:02 |
Dylan Coghlan
|
4% | 0.04 | 15% | 1.30 | 37% | 13:55 | 0:01 |
Jeremy Lauzon
|
4% | 0.04 | 14% | 1.11 | 30% | 16:38 | 0:01 |
Conor Timmins
|
4% | 0.04 | 19% | 0.90 | 23% | 16:58 | 0:01 |
Zach Metsa
|
2% | 0.02 | 13% | 0.56 | 11% | 12:00 | 0:02 |
No NHL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their share of the team's expected goals is spread across the dressed lineup.
VGK
Parker WotherspoonD
BUF
Konsta HeleniusFMatt GrzelcykD
Anytime Goal excludes shootout goals. Lineups are projected, so a late scratch can change them. Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Goaltending
VGK- Rating
- -0.19
- DailyFaceoff
- Confirmed
BUF- Rating
- +0.01
- DailyFaceoff
- Confirmed
Rating: goals saved per game against a league-average goalie, reset each season. The model uses DailyFaceoff's starter once confirmed or likely, else its own pick.
Recommended bet
- Set at
- Pinnacle BUF 48.5% · model 48.9% · best price DraftKings -105
Model vs market
- Model
- 51.1%
- First line
- 50.4%
- Close
- 51.1%
Moneyline BUF -105 / VGK -115 (vig removed) · opened 50.4%
- Model
- 6.4
- First line
- 6.5
- Close
- 6.5
Over -105 / Under -115
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 7 captures, first 50.4%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Sat 12:21 PM ET
- Close
- Closing line · DraftKings · 3:21 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
How the numbers are built
- 5-on-5 playexpected goals for minus against at 5-on-5 VGK +0.30
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals VGK +0.26
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net VGK +0.04
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it BUF +0.28
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances BUF +0.20
- Total shrinkgame total pulled toward a league-average matchup's; the margin is kept 0.00
- Lineupprojected skaters tonight and last game's dressed skaters vs each team's usual BUF +0.06
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score VGK +0.01
- 5-on-5 playboth teams' 5-on-5 expected goals3.98
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals +1.36
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net +0.80
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it -0.02
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances +0.17
- Back-to-back centringevery game: a credit offsetting the average back-to-back effects +0.00
- Total shrinkgame total pulled toward a league-average matchup's; the margin is kept +0.00
- Lineupprojected skaters tonight and last game's dressed skaters vs each team's usual +0.07
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score +0.01
Team comparison
VGK |
BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| Power ratinggoals/gm | 0.287th of 32 | -0.1219th of 32 |
| 5-on-5 offensexGF/60 | 2.5812th of 32 | 2.5613th of 32 |
| 5-on-5 defensexGA/60 | 2.222nd of 32 | 2.5619th of 32 |
| Power playxGF/60 | 8.549th of 32 | 7.0722nd of 32 |
| Penalty killxGA/60 | 6.585th of 32 | 8.2122nd of 32 |
| Power-play minutesmin | 4.8 | 4.6 |
| Starting goalieGSAx/gm | -0.1925th of 32 | 0.0113th of 32 |
Goaltending
| VGK | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Adin Hill | Colten Ellis |
| StatusProjected = our pick: most starts in his team's last 10 | Confirmed | Confirmed |
| Rating (GSAx/gm)0 = league average; this season blended with his last | -0.19 (#25) | +0.01 (#13) |
Who is out
- Alex Lyon BUF Out goalie left out of the starter pick
What moves this game
- Regulation winBUF 37%, VGK 39%
- Goes to overtime24%tied after 60 minutes
- Decided in a shootout10%
- Win in OT or shootoutBUF 12%, VGK 12%
Conditions
- Home ice+4.7% home goalsaway goals divided by the same factor
- Back-to-back (VGK)No
- Back-to-back (BUF)No
- Days since last game Not in the modelBUF 2 days, VGK 3 daysbeyond back-to-backs, rest is not modelled
- Skater lineupsProjected: BUF +2.1%, VGK +0.1% goalsDailyFaceoff projected lines, not confirmed participation; VGK: tonight's lineup not used (lineup older than 48 hours)
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: NHL API (schedule, results), MoneyPuck (expected goals, GSAx), DailyFaceoff (starting goalies), RotoWire (injuries), ESPN (goalie injuries), DailyFaceoff (projected lineups), NHL API (player box scores), MoneyPuck (player expected goals). How the models work →
How we got this
Forwards
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Jake Guentzel
|
42% | 0.54 | 68% | 2.93 | 78% | 21:38 | 4:56 |
Nikita Kucherov
|
41% | 0.53 | 81% | 3.15 | 81% | 21:39 | 4:58 |
Kyle Connor
|
40% | 0.52 | 68% | 3.22 | 82% | 21:31 | 3:48 |
Brandon Hagel
|
35% | 0.44 | 63% | 2.99 | 79% | 19:40 | 3:11 |
Brayden Point
|
35% | 0.43 | 62% | 2.27 | 65% | 19:49 | 4:47 |
Mark Scheifele
|
31% | 0.37 | 68% | 2.13 | 62% | 21:46 | 3:51 |
Cole Perfetti
|
27% | 0.31 | 51% | 2.33 | 67% | 17:33 | 3:34 |
Gabriel Vilardi
|
26% | 0.30 | 54% | 1.81 | 53% | 18:54 | 3:45 |
Anthony Cirelli
|
23% | 0.26 | 44% | 1.70 | 50% | 16:37 | 1:42 |
Dawson Mercer
|
18% | 0.20 | 36% | 1.68 | 49% | 16:36 | 1:44 |
Pontus Holmberg
|
15% | 0.17 | 32% | 1.44 | 42% | 14:12 | 0:34 |
Ilya Mikheyev
|
15% | 0.17 | 28% | 1.43 | 42% | 14:44 | 0:01 |
Brayden Yager
|
15% | 0.16 | 30% | 1.23 | 35% | 12:32 | 0:55 |
Gage Goncalves
|
14% | 0.16 | 34% | 1.17 | 33% | 14:31 | 1:11 |
Morgan Barron
|
14% | 0.15 | 27% | 1.36 | 39% | 14:03 | 0:07 |
Alex Iafallo
|
13% | 0.14 | 27% | 1.21 | 34% | 14:18 | 0:48 |
Adam Lowry
|
13% | 0.14 | 31% | 1.02 | 27% | 15:12 | 0:08 |
Conor Geekie
|
12% | 0.13 | 23% | 1.19 | 33% | 11:06 | 0:59 |
Viggo Björck
|
12% | 0.13 | 29% | 1.00 | 27% | 13:54 | 1:27 |
Zemgus Girgensons
|
12% | 0.13 | 23% | 1.29 | 37% | 14:37 | 0:03 |
Isak Rosen
|
12% | 0.13 | 26% | 1.09 | 30% | 12:06 | 1:17 |
Cole Koepke
|
10% | 0.10 | 20% | 1.06 | 29% | 10:15 | 0:06 |
Jeffrey Viel
|
9% | 0.10 | 19% | 0.95 | 25% | 9:25 | 0:02 |
Scott Sabourin
|
8% | 0.08 | 18% | 0.70 | 16% | 8:35 | 0:02 |
Defense
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
John Carlson
|
13% | 0.14 | 46% | 1.93 | 57% | 19:41 | 3:28 |
Neal Pionk
|
11% | 0.12 | 41% | 2.06 | 60% | 23:38 | 3:17 |
Charle-Edouard D'Astous
|
9% | 0.10 | 41% | 1.49 | 44% | 19:44 | 3:35 |
Victor Hedman
|
7% | 0.07 | 27% | 1.19 | 33% | 17:11 | 0:35 |
Dylan Samberg
|
6% | 0.06 | 26% | 1.24 | 35% | 22:09 | 0:24 |
J.J. Moser
|
6% | 0.06 | 21% | 1.07 | 29% | 18:22 | 0:06 |
Mario Ferraro
|
4% | 0.04 | 18% | 1.02 | 27% | 19:11 | 0:05 |
Erik Cernak
|
4% | 0.04 | 19% | 0.97 | 25% | 18:10 | 0:04 |
Ryan McDonagh
|
4% | 0.04 | 21% | 0.76 | 18% | 17:17 | 0:03 |
Dylan DeMelo
|
3% | 0.03 | 22% | 0.82 | 20% | 19:57 | 0:05 |
Haydn Fleury
|
3% | 0.03 | 16% | 0.81 | 20% | 13:27 | 0:27 |
Tyrel Bauer
|
2% | 0.02 | 11% | 0.57 | 11% | 9:56 | 0:00 |
No NHL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their share of the team's expected goals is spread across the dressed lineup.
TBL
Yanni GourdeF
WPG
Vladislav NamestnikovFElias SalomonssonDJosh MorrisseyDNick Bjugstad
Anytime Goal excludes shootout goals. Lineups are projected, so a late scratch can change them. Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Goaltending
TBL- Rating
- +0.02
- DailyFaceoff
- Unconfirmed
WPG- Rating
- -0.13
- DailyFaceoff
- Likely
Rating: goals saved per game against a league-average goalie, reset each season. The model uses DailyFaceoff's starter once confirmed or likely, else its own pick.
Model vs market
- Model
- 59.6%
- First line
- 55.1%
- Latest
- 57.2%
Moneyline WPG +124 / TBL -148 (vig removed) · opened 55.1%
- Model
- 6.6
- First line
- 6.5
- Latest
- 6.5
Over +100 / Under -120
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 7 captures, first 55.1%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Sat 12:21 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings · as of 3:21 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
How the numbers are built
- 5-on-5 playexpected goals for minus against at 5-on-5 TBL +0.56
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals TBL +0.23
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net TBL +0.17
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it WPG +0.30
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances TBL +0.14
- Back-to-back (TBL)TBL played yesterday WPG +0.22
- Total shrinkgame total pulled toward a league-average matchup's; the margin is kept 0.00
- Lineupprojected skaters tonight and last game's dressed skaters vs each team's usual TBL +0.02
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score 0.00
- 5-on-5 playboth teams' 5-on-5 expected goals4.08
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals +1.57
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net +0.91
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it -0.04
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances +0.11
- Back-to-backTBL played yesterday, plus a credit offsetting the average back-to-back effects -0.01
- Total shrinkgame total pulled toward a league-average matchup's; the margin is kept -0.13
- Lineupprojected skaters tonight and last game's dressed skaters vs each team's usual +0.10
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score -0.01
Team comparison
TBL |
WPG | |
|---|---|---|
| Power ratinggoals/gm | 0.644th of 32 | -0.4727th of 32 |
| 5-on-5 offensexGF/60 | 2.804th of 32 | 2.3624th of 32 |
| 5-on-5 defensexGA/60 | 2.297th of 32 | 2.5620th of 32 |
| Power playxGF/60 | 7.8312th of 32 | 7.7814th of 32 |
| Penalty killxGA/60 | 7.3513th of 32 | 9.7031st of 32 |
| Power-play minutesmin | 5.0 | 4.7 |
| Starting goalieGSAx/gm | 0.0212th of 32 | -0.1320th of 32 |
Goaltending
| TBL | WPG | |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Andrei Vasilevskiy | Stuart Skinner |
| StatusProjected = our pick: most starts in his team's last 10 | Projected | Likely |
| Rating (GSAx/gm)0 = league average; this season blended with his last | +0.02 (#12) | -0.13 (#20) |
What moves this game
- Regulation winWPG 30%, TBL 48%
- Goes to overtime23%tied after 60 minutes
- Decided in a shootout10%
- Win in OT or shootoutWPG 11%, TBL 12%
Conditions
- Home ice+4.7% home goalsaway goals divided by the same factor
- Back-to-back (TBL)Yes-0.12 goals to TBL
- Back-to-back (WPG)No
- Days since last game Not in the modelWPG 3 days, TBL 1 daybeyond back-to-backs, rest is not modelled
- Skater lineupsProjected: WPG +1.4%, TBL +1.8% goalsDailyFaceoff projected lines, not confirmed participation; WPG: tonight's lineup not used (lineup older than 48 hours)
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: NHL API (schedule, results), MoneyPuck (expected goals, GSAx), DailyFaceoff (starting goalies), RotoWire (injuries), ESPN (goalie injuries), DailyFaceoff (projected lineups), NHL API (player box scores), MoneyPuck (player expected goals). How the models work →
How we got this
Forwards
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Jack Hughes
|
44% | 0.57 | 76% | 4.04 | 90% | 20:40 | 3:37 |
Auston Matthews
|
39% | 0.49 | 65% | 3.16 | 81% | 20:49 | 3:33 |
William Nylander
|
34% | 0.41 | 65% | 2.65 | 73% | 20:51 | 3:26 |
Nico Hischier
|
32% | 0.39 | 57% | 2.55 | 71% | 18:09 | 3:20 |
Timo Meier
|
30% | 0.36 | 48% | 3.25 | 82% | 16:25 | 1:41 |
John Tavares
|
28% | 0.33 | 55% | 2.34 | 67% | 17:52 | 3:22 |
Jesper Bratt
|
27% | 0.31 | 64% | 2.31 | 66% | 17:33 | 3:14 |
Luke Evangelista
|
25% | 0.29 | 55% | 2.57 | 71% | 16:13 | 2:58 |
Arseny Gritsyuk
|
25% | 0.29 | 45% | 2.57 | 71% | 15:34 | 1:26 |
Jack Roslovic
|
25% | 0.28 | 46% | 2.20 | 64% | 17:54 | 2:05 |
Connor Brown
|
21% | 0.23 | 42% | 1.71 | 50% | 15:32 | 1:56 |
Evan Rodrigues
|
19% | 0.21 | 38% | 1.88 | 55% | 14:23 | 1:08 |
Gavin McKenna
|
18% | 0.20 | 39% | 1.78 | 53% | 14:32 | 2:48 |
Easton Cowan
|
16% | 0.18 | 38% | 1.63 | 48% | 16:18 | 0:55 |
Nick Paul
|
15% | 0.16 | 30% | 1.31 | 37% | 16:15 | 0:31 |
Amadeus Lombardi
|
14% | 0.15 | 30% | 1.53 | 45% | 10:40 | 0:08 |
Cody Glass
|
13% | 0.14 | 25% | 1.36 | 39% | 11:35 | 0:10 |
Jesper Boqvist
|
12% | 0.13 | 25% | 1.23 | 35% | 11:44 | 0:09 |
Dakota Joshua
|
11% | 0.11 | 24% | 1.02 | 27% | 11:31 | 0:34 |
Colton Sissons
|
11% | 0.11 | 22% | 1.12 | 31% | 14:37 | 0:02 |
Teddy Blueger
|
9% | 0.10 | 23% | 1.08 | 29% | 13:31 | 0:02 |
Zack MacEwen
|
8% | 0.08 | 17% | 0.99 | 26% | 8:44 | 0:02 |
Brandon Duhaime
|
8% | 0.08 | 17% | 0.84 | 21% | 11:50 | 0:02 |
Defense
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Luke Hughes
|
16% | 0.17 | 52% | 2.43 | 69% | 24:12 | 3:10 |
Dougie Hamilton
|
15% | 0.16 | 44% | 2.69 | 74% | 20:06 | 1:59 |
Darren Raddysh
|
14% | 0.15 | 52% | 2.38 | 67% | 24:48 | 3:35 |
Brett Pesce
|
6% | 0.07 | 26% | 1.39 | 40% | 20:22 | 0:06 |
Oliver Ekman-Larsson
|
5% | 0.05 | 24% | 1.04 | 28% | 19:09 | 0:40 |
Jonas Siegenthaler
|
4% | 0.04 | 21% | 0.81 | 19% | 18:48 | 0:09 |
Troy Stecher
|
4% | 0.04 | 16% | 0.95 | 25% | 18:41 | 0:03 |
Johnathan Kovacevic
|
4% | 0.04 | 19% | 0.96 | 25% | 15:34 | 0:01 |
Jake McCabe
|
4% | 0.04 | 22% | 0.90 | 23% | 21:45 | 0:04 |
Cole McWard
|
3% | 0.03 | 17% | 0.91 | 23% | 14:59 | 0:01 |
Declan Chisholm
|
3% | 0.03 | 17% | 0.82 | 20% | 13:35 | 0:14 |
Brenden Dillon
|
3% | 0.03 | 16% | 0.69 | 15% | 15:53 | 0:00 |
Dakota Mermis
|
3% | 0.03 | 12% | 0.64 | 14% | 12:52 | 0:01 |
No NHL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their share of the team's expected goals is spread across the dressed lineup.
NJD
Anthony ManthaFSeamus CaseyD
TOR
Kirill MarchenkoFMax DomiFChris TanevDMarshall RifaiDMorgan RiellyD
Anytime Goal excludes shootout goals. Lineups are projected, so a late scratch can change them. Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Goaltending
NJD- Rating
- -0.03
- DailyFaceoff
- Confirmed
TOR- Rating
- -0.03
- DailyFaceoff
- Confirmed
Rating: goals saved per game against a league-average goalie, reset each season. The model uses DailyFaceoff's starter once confirmed or likely, else its own pick.
Recommended bet
- Set at
- Pinnacle NJD 59.7% · model 61.2% · best price BetMGM -160
Model vs market
- Model
- 61.2%
- First line
- 55.1%
- Close
- 59.3%
Moneyline TOR +136 / NJD -162 (vig removed) · opened 55.1%
- Model
- 6.4
- First line
- 6.5
- Close
- 6.5
Over -105 / Under -115
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 8 captures, first 55.1%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Sat 12:21 PM ET
- Close
- Closing line · DraftKings · 7:01 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
How the numbers are built
- 5-on-5 playexpected goals for minus against at 5-on-5 NJD +0.67
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals NJD +0.24
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net NJD +0.07
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it TOR +0.30
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances NJD +0.01
- Back-to-back (TOR and NJD)TOR and NJD played yesterday NJD +0.08
- Total shrinkgame total pulled toward a league-average matchup's; the margin is kept 0.00
- Lineupprojected skaters tonight and last game's dressed skaters vs each team's usual TOR +0.05
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score TOR +0.01
- 5-on-5 playboth teams' 5-on-5 expected goals3.96
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals +1.54
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net +1.10
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it -0.04
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances +0.06
- Back-to-backTOR and NJD played yesterday, plus a credit offsetting the average back-to-back effects -0.00
- Total shrinkgame total pulled toward a league-average matchup's; the margin is kept -0.14
- Lineupprojected skaters tonight and last game's dressed skaters vs each team's usual -0.11
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score -0.00
Team comparison
NJD |
TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| Power ratinggoals/gm | 0.644th of 32 | -0.3325th of 32 |
| 5-on-5 offensexGF/60 | 2.717th of 32 | 2.2529th of 32 |
| 5-on-5 defensexGA/60 | 2.263rd of 32 | 2.6424th of 32 |
| Power playxGF/60 | 8.806th of 32 | 8.4810th of 32 |
| Penalty killxGA/60 | 7.2111th of 32 | 8.1321st of 32 |
| Power-play minutesmin | 5.2 | 4.2 |
| Starting goalieGSAx/gm | -0.0315th of 32 | -0.0318th of 32 |
Goaltending
| NJD | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Connor Hellebuyck | Anthony Stolarz |
| StatusProjected = our pick: most starts in his team's last 10 | Confirmed | Confirmed |
| Rating (GSAx/gm)0 = league average; this season blended with his last | -0.03 (#15) | -0.03 (#18) |
Who is out
- Elvis Merzlikins TOR Out goalie left out of the starter pick
What moves this game
- Regulation winTOR 28%, NJD 49%
- Goes to overtime23%tied after 60 minutes
- Decided in a shootout10%
- Win in OT or shootoutTOR 11%, NJD 12%
Conditions
- Home ice+4.7% home goalsaway goals divided by the same factor
- Back-to-back (NJD)Yes-0.12 goals to NJD
- Back-to-back (TOR)YesTOR scores and defends worse on the second night
- Days since last game Not in the modelTOR 1 day, NJD 1 daybeyond back-to-backs, rest is not modelled
- Skater lineupsProjected: TOR -1.0%, NJD -2.3% goalsDailyFaceoff projected lines, not confirmed participation
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: NHL API (schedule, results), MoneyPuck (expected goals, GSAx), DailyFaceoff (starting goalies), RotoWire (injuries), ESPN (goalie injuries), DailyFaceoff (projected lineups), NHL API (player box scores), MoneyPuck (player expected goals). How the models work →
How we got this
Forwards
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Joel Farabee
|
29% | 0.34 | 54% | 2.09 | 61% | 19:48 | 2:17 |
Matt Coronato
|
27% | 0.32 | 55% | 2.23 | 64% | 18:22 | 2:26 |
Matvei Gridin
|
25% | 0.29 | 52% | 2.02 | 59% | 16:40 | 2:24 |
Mikael Backlund
|
24% | 0.27 | 45% | 2.23 | 64% | 19:24 | 0:07 |
Matvei Michkov
|
23% | 0.26 | 45% | 2.14 | 62% | 15:43 | 3:15 |
Trevor Zegras
|
23% | 0.26 | 50% | 2.19 | 63% | 18:34 | 3:16 |
Morgan Frost
|
22% | 0.25 | 47% | 1.61 | 47% | 15:14 | 2:29 |
Travis Konecny
|
21% | 0.23 | 48% | 2.08 | 60% | 17:30 | 2:23 |
Owen Tippett
|
21% | 0.23 | 37% | 2.48 | 70% | 14:44 | 1:33 |
Yegor Sharangovich
|
20% | 0.23 | 37% | 1.49 | 43% | 15:48 | 0:48 |
Tyson Foerster
|
20% | 0.22 | 33% | 2.07 | 60% | 16:29 | 2:00 |
Aydar Suniev
|
19% | 0.20 | 37% | 1.41 | 41% | 13:06 | 0:57 |
Ryan Strome
|
18% | 0.20 | 42% | 1.55 | 45% | 14:54 | 0:57 |
Christian Dvorak
|
18% | 0.20 | 39% | 1.75 | 52% | 18:10 | 1:24 |
Porter Martone
|
17% | 0.19 | 38% | 1.76 | 52% | 13:43 | 2:47 |
Adam Klapka
|
15% | 0.16 | 31% | 1.23 | 35% | 11:47 | 0:38 |
Martin Pospisil
|
14% | 0.15 | 32% | 1.30 | 37% | 13:33 | 0:06 |
Denver Barkey
|
14% | 0.15 | 36% | 1.19 | 33% | 14:03 | 2:41 |
Sean Couturier
|
13% | 0.14 | 31% | 1.45 | 42% | 15:21 | 0:12 |
Jonathan Castagna
|
13% | 0.14 | 32% | 0.94 | 24% | 13:07 | 0:00 |
Cole Knuble
|
12% | 0.13 | 23% | 1.64 | 48% | 11:38 | 0:08 |
Noah Cates
|
11% | 0.11 | 26% | 1.18 | 33% | 13:17 | 0:16 |
William Stromgren
|
10% | 0.11 | 23% | 0.94 | 24% | 9:02 | 0:00 |
Noel Acciari
|
10% | 0.10 | 18% | 1.16 | 32% | 12:39 | 0:00 |
Defense
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Zayne Parekh
|
12% | 0.12 | 38% | 1.44 | 42% | 19:13 | 2:30 |
Simon Nemec
|
11% | 0.11 | 36% | 1.49 | 43% | 21:35 | 0:54 |
Travis Sanheim
|
10% | 0.10 | 31% | 1.59 | 47% | 23:22 | 0:39 |
Jamie Drysdale
|
8% | 0.08 | 32% | 1.43 | 42% | 23:17 | 2:58 |
Oliver Bonk
|
6% | 0.06 | 30% | 1.28 | 36% | 17:47 | 1:17 |
Cam York
|
6% | 0.06 | 21% | 1.10 | 30% | 19:48 | 0:27 |
Jacob Middleton
|
6% | 0.06 | 23% | 0.97 | 25% | 19:32 | 0:01 |
Yan Kuznetsov
|
4% | 0.05 | 20% | 1.00 | 26% | 18:20 | 0:00 |
Zach Whitecloud
|
4% | 0.04 | 22% | 0.89 | 23% | 21:29 | 0:01 |
Nick Seeler
|
4% | 0.04 | 15% | 1.10 | 30% | 16:42 | 0:01 |
Joel Hanley
|
4% | 0.04 | 17% | 0.68 | 15% | 16:05 | 0:02 |
Simon Benoit
|
2% | 0.02 | 8% | 0.75 | 17% | 14:12 | 0:00 |
No NHL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their share of the team's expected goals is spread across the dressed lineup.
PHI
Nikita GrebenkinFRasmus RistolainenD
CGY
Brennan OthmannFJonathan HuberdeauFSamuel HonzekFKevin BahlD
Anytime Goal excludes shootout goals. Lineups are projected, so a late scratch can change them. Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Goaltending
PHI- Rating
- -0.03
- DailyFaceoff
- Confirmed
CGY- Rating
- +0.13
- DailyFaceoff
- Confirmed
Rating: goals saved per game against a league-average goalie, reset each season. The model uses DailyFaceoff's starter once confirmed or likely, else its own pick.
Recommended bet
- Final
- Flyers 3, Flames 4
- Result
- CGY won by 1
- Why
- Model 56.6%, first price 47.6%
Model vs market
- Model
- 56.6%
- First line
- 48.3%
- Close
- 47.4%
Moneyline CGY +102 / PHI -122 (vig removed) · opened 48.3%
- Model
- 6.1
- First line
- 5.5
- Close
- 5.5
Over -118 / Under -102
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 8 captures, first 48.3%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Sat 12:21 PM ET
- Close
- Closing line · DraftKings · 7:01 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
How the numbers are built
- 5-on-5 playexpected goals for minus against at 5-on-5 CGY +0.17
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals PHI +0.16
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net CGY +0.06
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it CGY +0.27
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances CGY +0.16
- Total shrinkgame total pulled toward a league-average matchup's; the margin is kept 0.00
- Lineupprojected skaters tonight and last game's dressed skaters vs each team's usual PHI +0.07
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score PHI +0.02
- 5-on-5 playboth teams' 5-on-5 expected goals3.92
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals +1.20
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net +0.69
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it +0.01
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances -0.09
- Back-to-back centringevery game: a credit offsetting the average back-to-back effects +0.00
- Total shrinkgame total pulled toward a league-average matchup's; the margin is kept +0.27
- Lineupprojected skaters tonight and last game's dressed skaters vs each team's usual +0.10
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score +0.02
Team comparison
PHI |
CGY | |
|---|---|---|
| Power ratinggoals/gm | -0.5328th of 32 | -0.2923rd of 32 |
| 5-on-5 offensexGF/60 | 2.1630th of 32 | 2.3723rd of 32 |
| 5-on-5 defensexGA/60 | 2.6625th of 32 | 2.6827th of 32 |
| Power playxGF/60 | 7.4518th of 32 | 6.4531st of 32 |
| Penalty killxGA/60 | 6.757th of 32 | 7.4914th of 32 |
| Power-play minutesmin | 4.9 | 4.6 |
| Starting goalieGSAx/gm | -0.0317th of 32 | 0.137th of 32 |
Goaltending
| PHI | CGY | |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Dan Vladar | Devin Cooley |
| StatusProjected = our pick: most starts in his team's last 10 | Confirmed | Confirmed |
| Rating (GSAx/gm)0 = league average; this season blended with his last | -0.03 (#17) | +0.13 (#7) |
What moves this game
- Regulation winCGY 44%, PHI 32%
- Goes to overtime24%tied after 60 minutes
- Decided in a shootout10%
- Win in OT or shootoutCGY 12%, PHI 12%
Conditions
- Home ice+4.7% home goalsaway goals divided by the same factor
- Back-to-back (PHI)No
- Back-to-back (CGY)No
- Days since last game Not in the modelCGY 2 days, PHI 3 daysbeyond back-to-backs, rest is not modelled
- Skater lineupsProjected: CGY +0.4%, PHI +3.2% goalsDailyFaceoff projected lines, not confirmed participation
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: NHL API (schedule, results), MoneyPuck (expected goals, GSAx), DailyFaceoff (starting goalies), RotoWire (injuries), ESPN (goalie injuries), DailyFaceoff (projected lineups), NHL API (player box scores), MoneyPuck (player expected goals). How the models work →
How we got this
Forwards
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Cutter Gauthier
|
46% | 0.62 | 67% | 3.76 | 87% | 19:10 | 4:16 |
Beckett Sennecke
|
39% | 0.50 | 68% | 2.59 | 72% | 20:20 | 3:59 |
Leo Carlsson
|
35% | 0.43 | 69% | 2.27 | 65% | 21:13 | 4:21 |
Rickard Rakell
|
35% | 0.43 | 57% | 2.43 | 69% | 19:25 | 3:15 |
Sidney Crosby
|
32% | 0.39 | 64% | 2.21 | 64% | 18:57 | 3:20 |
Mikael Granlund
|
30% | 0.36 | 64% | 1.99 | 58% | 21:27 | 4:14 |
Tommy Novak
|
26% | 0.30 | 50% | 1.86 | 55% | 16:08 | 2:41 |
Evgeni Malkin
|
25% | 0.29 | 55% | 2.00 | 58% | 16:47 | 2:00 |
Ben Kindel
|
24% | 0.27 | 43% | 1.97 | 58% | 16:10 | 2:22 |
Egor Chinakhov
|
23% | 0.26 | 42% | 1.86 | 55% | 14:41 | 1:28 |
Judd Caulfield
|
21% | 0.23 | 43% | 1.47 | 43% | 14:44 | 1:40 |
Alex Killorn
|
20% | 0.23 | 38% | 1.65 | 48% | 17:43 | 1:15 |
Nicholas Robertson
|
18% | 0.20 | 30% | 1.69 | 50% | 13:45 | 0:05 |
Justin Brazeau
|
15% | 0.17 | 30% | 1.36 | 39% | 11:54 | 0:32 |
Roger McQueen
|
15% | 0.16 | 30% | 1.31 | 37% | 11:36 | 1:07 |
Rutger McGroarty
|
15% | 0.16 | 29% | 1.36 | 39% | 12:43 | 0:27 |
Tim Washe
|
14% | 0.16 | 29% | 1.13 | 31% | 14:36 | 0:10 |
Connor Dewar
|
14% | 0.15 | 28% | 1.37 | 39% | 14:15 | 0:01 |
Hendrix Lapierre
|
13% | 0.13 | 32% | 1.02 | 27% | 11:59 | 0:46 |
Jeff Malott
|
12% | 0.13 | 25% | 1.16 | 32% | 10:13 | 0:02 |
Nikita Nesterenko
|
12% | 0.12 | 27% | 1.10 | 30% | 10:47 | 0:36 |
Blake Lizotte
|
11% | 0.12 | 27% | 1.02 | 27% | 14:02 | 0:01 |
Sam Colangelo
|
11% | 0.11 | 24% | 0.95 | 25% | 9:26 | 0:22 |
Nico Myatovic
|
11% | 0.11 | 24% | 0.93 | 24% | 10:18 | 0:07 |
Defense
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Jackson Lacombe
|
16% | 0.18 | 62% | 1.63 | 48% | 28:09 | 4:16 |
Erik Karlsson
|
15% | 0.16 | 56% | 2.05 | 60% | 23:19 | 3:24 |
Tristan Luneau
|
9% | 0.09 | 37% | 1.22 | 34% | 18:52 | 1:06 |
Kris Letang
|
8% | 0.08 | 36% | 1.52 | 44% | 20:08 | 1:14 |
Pavel Mintyukov
|
8% | 0.08 | 27% | 1.05 | 28% | 20:15 | 0:15 |
Declan Carlile
|
7% | 0.07 | 19% | 1.16 | 32% | 18:24 | 0:04 |
Samuel Girard
|
6% | 0.06 | 28% | 1.04 | 28% | 19:01 | 0:06 |
Drew Helleson
|
5% | 0.05 | 23% | 0.86 | 21% | 19:38 | 0:06 |
Kaedan Korczak
|
4% | 0.04 | 26% | 0.90 | 23% | 18:01 | 0:01 |
Spencer Stastney
|
4% | 0.04 | 19% | 1.05 | 28% | 17:19 | 0:00 |
Noah Warren
|
3% | 0.03 | 22% | 0.77 | 18% | 16:22 | 0:02 |
Travis Mitchell
|
3% | 0.03 | 14% | 0.53 | 10% | 12:12 | 0:04 |
No NHL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their share of the team's expected goals is spread across the dressed lineup.
PIT
Bryan RustFVille KoivunenFRyan GravesDTrevor van RiemsdykD
ANA
A.J. GreerFRyan PoehlingFTroy TerryFIan MooreD
Anytime Goal excludes shootout goals. Lineups are projected, so a late scratch can change them. Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Goaltending
PIT- Rating
- -0.18
- DailyFaceoff
- Confirmed
ANA- Rating
- -0.24
- DailyFaceoff
- L. BrossoitUnconfirmed
Rating: goals saved per game against a league-average goalie, reset each season. The model uses DailyFaceoff's starter once confirmed or likely, else its own pick.
Model vs market
- Model
- 56.9%
- First line
- 55.1%
- Close
- 52.2%
Moneyline ANA -120 / PIT +100 (vig removed) · opened 55.1%
- Model
- 6.9
- First line
- 6.5
- Close
- 6.5
Over -162 / Under +136
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 9 captures, first 55.1%.
- First line
- DraftKings · Sat 12:21 PM ET
- Close
- Closing line · DraftKings · 7:51 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
How the numbers are built
- 5-on-5 playexpected goals for minus against at 5-on-5 PIT +0.34
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals ANA +0.04
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net ANA +0.16
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it ANA +0.31
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances PIT +0.07
- Back-to-back (PIT)PIT played yesterday ANA +0.22
- Total shrinkgame total pulled toward a league-average matchup's; the margin is kept 0.00
- Lineupprojected skaters tonight and last game's dressed skaters vs each team's usual ANA +0.14
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score PIT +0.03
- 5-on-5 playboth teams' 5-on-5 expected goals4.56
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals +1.30
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net +0.82
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it +0.00
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances +0.42
- Back-to-backPIT played yesterday, plus a credit offsetting the average back-to-back effects -0.01
- Total shrinkgame total pulled toward a league-average matchup's; the margin is kept -0.34
- Lineupprojected skaters tonight and last game's dressed skaters vs each team's usual +0.14
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score -0.03
Team comparison
PIT |
ANA | |
|---|---|---|
| Power ratinggoals/gm | -0.2722nd of 32 | -0.4426th of 32 |
| 5-on-5 offensexGF/60 | 2.756th of 32 | 2.4919th of 32 |
| 5-on-5 defensexGA/60 | 2.6221st of 32 | 2.7529th of 32 |
| Power playxGF/60 | 6.5029th of 32 | 7.6416th of 32 |
| Penalty killxGA/60 | 7.5515th of 32 | 7.6917th of 32 |
| Power-play minutesmin | 5.0 | 4.7 |
| Starting goalieGSAx/gm | -0.1823rd of 32 | -0.2428th of 32 |
Goaltending
| PIT | ANA | |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Arturs Silovs | Lukas Dostal |
| StatusProjected = our pick: most starts in his team's last 10 | Confirmed | Projected |
| Rating (GSAx/gm)0 = league average; this season blended with his last | -0.18 (#23) | -0.24 (#28) |
What moves this game
- Regulation winANA 45%, PIT 32%
- Goes to overtime22%tied after 60 minutes
- Decided in a shootout9%
- Win in OT or shootoutANA 12%, PIT 11%
Conditions
- Home ice+4.7% home goalsaway goals divided by the same factor
- Back-to-back (PIT)Yes-0.12 goals to PIT
- Back-to-back (ANA)No
- Days since last game Not in the modelANA 2 days, PIT 1 daybeyond back-to-backs, rest is not modelled
- Skater lineupsProjected: ANA +3.9%, PIT -0.1% goalsDailyFaceoff projected lines, not confirmed participation
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: NHL API (schedule, results), MoneyPuck (expected goals, GSAx), DailyFaceoff (starting goalies), RotoWire (injuries), ESPN (goalie injuries), DailyFaceoff (projected lineups), NHL API (player box scores), MoneyPuck (player expected goals). How the models work →
Players
Anytime goal board
- Cutter Gauthier46%
- Jack Hughes44%
- David Pastrnak43%
- Jake Guentzel42%
- Nikita Kucherov41%
Forwards
| TBL @ WPG | 41.1% | 0.53 | 80.8% | 49.1% | 67.4% | 3.15 | 80.7% | 59.7% | 21:39 | 4:58 | |
| TBL @ WPG | 41.6% | 0.54 | 68.0% | 31.5% | 45.1% | 2.93 | 77.5% | 55.0% | 21:38 | 4:56 | |
| NJD @ TOR | 43.6% | 0.57 | 75.8% | 41.5% | 57.2% | 4.04 | 89.7% | 75.0% | 20:40 | 3:37 | |
| FLA @ BOS | 42.8% | 0.56 | 76.2% | 42.0% | 58.4% | 3.34 | 83.1% | 63.5% | 21:05 | 3:48 | |
| TBL @ WPG | 40.3% | 0.52 | 67.7% | 31.2% | 45.9% | 3.22 | 81.6% | 61.1% | 21:31 | 3:48 | |
| FLA @ BOS | 32.6% | 0.39 | 56.8% | 20.6% | 35.9% | 2.80 | 75.4% | 52.1% | 20:32 | 4:48 | |
| PIT @ ANA | 46.1% | 0.62 | 67.0% | 30.4% | 38.8% | 3.76 | 87.4% | 70.7% | 19:10 | 4:16 | |
| PIT @ ANA | 35.1% | 0.43 | 68.8% | 32.4% | 51.9% | 2.27 | 65.1% | 39.3% | 21:13 | 4:21 | |
| NJD @ TOR | 39.0% | 0.49 | 65.2% | 28.5% | 43.0% | 3.16 | 80.8% | 59.9% | 20:49 | 3:33 | |
| TBL @ WPG | 30.9% | 0.37 | 67.6% | 31.1% | 53.1% | 2.13 | 61.8% | 35.7% | 21:46 | 3:51 | |
| PIT @ ANA | 30.1% | 0.36 | 63.9% | 27.1% | 48.3% | 1.99 | 58.3% | 32.1% | 21:27 | 4:14 | |
| PIT @ ANA | 39.4% | 0.50 | 68.3% | 31.9% | 47.7% | 2.59 | 71.8% | 47.3% | 20:20 | 3:59 | |
| VGK @ BUF | 32.7% | 0.40 | 66.9% | 30.3% | 50.7% | 2.93 | 77.6% | 55.1% | 20:38 | 3:15 | |
| NJD @ TOR | 33.8% | 0.41 | 64.5% | 27.7% | 46.4% | 2.65 | 72.9% | 48.7% | 20:51 | 3:26 | |
| TBL @ WPG | 34.6% | 0.43 | 61.6% | 24.8% | 41.2% | 2.27 | 65.1% | 39.3% | 19:49 | 4:47 | |
| VGK @ BUF | 26.2% | 0.30 | 64.8% | 28.0% | 52.3% | 2.14 | 62.0% | 36.0% | 20:42 | 3:39 | |
| VGK @ BUF | 38.4% | 0.49 | 61.2% | 24.5% | 37.0% | 3.14 | 80.6% | 59.6% | 19:05 | 3:39 | |
| TBL @ WPG | 35.5% | 0.44 | 62.7% | 25.9% | 42.1% | 2.99 | 78.6% | 56.5% | 19:40 | 3:11 | |
| FLA @ BOS | 27.1% | 0.32 | 63.7% | 26.9% | 50.2% | 2.54 | 70.8% | 46.1% | 18:46 | 4:43 | |
| FLA @ BOS | 32.1% | 0.39 | 56.4% | 20.2% | 35.8% | 3.52 | 85.1% | 66.8% | 17:26 | 4:31 | |
| PIT @ ANA | 34.9% | 0.43 | 56.9% | 20.6% | 33.8% | 2.43 | 68.6% | 43.3% | 19:25 | 3:15 | |
| FLA @ BOS | 27.5% | 0.32 | 50.5% | 15.7% | 31.8% | 2.56 | 71.2% | 46.5% | 18:27 | 4:09 | |
| VGK @ BUF | 25.1% | 0.29 | 54.2% | 18.4% | 38.9% | 2.10 | 61.0% | 34.9% | 19:29 | 3:25 | |
| PIT @ ANA | 32.5% | 0.39 | 64.0% | 27.3% | 46.8% | 2.21 | 63.7% | 37.7% | 18:57 | 3:20 | |
| NJD @ TOR | 32.2% | 0.39 | 57.3% | 20.9% | 37.0% | 2.55 | 71.0% | 46.3% | 18:09 | 3:20 | |
| VGK @ BUF | 29.6% | 0.35 | 55.2% | 19.2% | 36.3% | 2.39 | 67.8% | 42.4% | 17:55 | 3:46 | |
| TBL @ WPG | 26.2% | 0.30 | 53.9% | 18.2% | 37.5% | 1.81 | 53.3% | 27.3% | 18:54 | 3:45 | |
| VGK @ BUF | 28.7% | 0.34 | 60.0% | 23.3% | 43.9% | 2.00 | 58.6% | 32.4% | 18:57 | 3:06 | |
| PHI @ CGY | 28.9% | 0.34 | 53.9% | 18.2% | 35.2% | 2.09 | 60.9% | 34.8% | 19:48 | 2:17 | |
| FLA @ BOS | 28.7% | 0.34 | 56.4% | 20.2% | 38.8% | 1.76 | 51.8% | 26.0% | 19:07 | 3:11 | |
| PHI @ CGY | 23.1% | 0.26 | 49.6% | 15.0% | 34.5% | 2.19 | 63.3% | 37.3% | 18:34 | 3:16 | |
| NJD @ TOR | 28.4% | 0.33 | 54.6% | 18.7% | 36.6% | 2.34 | 66.6% | 41.0% | 17:52 | 3:22 | |
| NJD @ TOR | 26.8% | 0.31 | 64.4% | 27.6% | 51.4% | 2.31 | 66.0% | 40.3% | 17:33 | 3:14 | |
| TBL @ WPG | 26.7% | 0.31 | 51.2% | 16.2% | 33.5% | 2.33 | 66.6% | 41.0% | 17:33 | 3:34 | |
| PHI @ CGY | 27.5% | 0.32 | 54.7% | 18.9% | 37.6% | 2.23 | 64.2% | 38.3% | 18:22 | 2:26 | |
| VGK @ BUF | 22.6% | 0.26 | 46.9% | 13.3% | 31.4% | 1.81 | 53.2% | 27.2% | 17:53 | 3:25 | |
| FLA @ BOS | 28.5% | 0.34 | 52.2% | 16.9% | 33.1% | 2.02 | 59.1% | 32.9% | 18:22 | 1:58 | |
| NJD @ TOR | 25.2% | 0.29 | 55.3% | 19.3% | 40.3% | 2.57 | 71.5% | 46.9% | 16:13 | 2:58 | |
| FLA @ BOS | 24.2% | 0.28 | 49.7% | 15.2% | 33.7% | 1.65 | 48.6% | 23.2% | 17:41 | 3:04 | |
| NJD @ TOR | 24.7% | 0.28 | 45.7% | 12.6% | 27.9% | 2.20 | 63.5% | 37.6% | 17:54 | 2:05 | |
| NJD @ TOR | 30.5% | 0.36 | 48.4% | 14.3% | 25.8% | 3.25 | 82.1% | 61.8% | 16:25 | 1:41 | |
| PHI @ CGY | 20.9% | 0.23 | 47.9% | 13.9% | 34.1% | 2.08 | 60.5% | 34.3% | 17:30 | 2:23 | |
| PHI @ CGY | 23.6% | 0.27 | 45.0% | 12.1% | 28.0% | 2.23 | 64.3% | 38.4% | 19:24 | 0:07 | |
| FLA @ BOS | 22.7% | 0.26 | 41.5% | 10.1% | 24.4% | 2.45 | 68.9% | 43.7% | 17:03 | 2:06 | |
| FLA @ BOS | 29.3% | 0.35 | 51.8% | 16.6% | 31.8% | 1.78 | 52.4% | 26.5% | 16:10 | 3:23 | |
| PHI @ CGY | 25.3% | 0.29 | 52.4% | 17.1% | 36.3% | 2.02 | 59.0% | 32.8% | 16:40 | 2:24 | |
| FLA @ BOS | 18.7% | 0.21 | 37.4% | 8.1% | 23.0% | 2.13 | 61.7% | 35.6% | 17:31 | 1:46 | |
| PHI @ CGY | 23.1% | 0.26 | 45.3% | 12.3% | 28.8% | 2.14 | 62.0% | 35.9% | 15:43 | 3:15 | |
| PIT @ ANA | 25.2% | 0.29 | 55.2% | 19.2% | 40.1% | 2.00 | 58.5% | 32.3% | 16:47 | 2:00 | |
| PHI @ CGY | 17.7% | 0.20 | 39.0% | 8.9% | 25.9% | 1.75 | 51.5% | 25.7% | 18:10 | 1:24 | |
| PIT @ ANA | 25.8% | 0.30 | 50.0% | 15.4% | 32.7% | 1.86 | 54.7% | 28.6% | 16:08 | 2:41 | |
| PIT @ ANA | 23.7% | 0.27 | 43.5% | 11.2% | 25.9% | 1.97 | 57.8% | 31.6% | 16:10 | 2:22 | |
| VGK @ BUF | 25.8% | 0.30 | 45.7% | 12.6% | 26.9% | 2.15 | 62.4% | 36.3% | 14:57 | 3:12 | |
| PHI @ CGY | 20.1% | 0.22 | 33.5% | 6.4% | 16.8% | 2.07 | 60.4% | 34.2% | 16:29 | 2:00 | |
| PIT @ ANA | 20.4% | 0.23 | 38.2% | 8.5% | 22.4% | 1.65 | 48.4% | 23.1% | 17:43 | 1:15 | |
| VGK @ BUF | 20.8% | 0.23 | 39.3% | 9.0% | 23.4% | 1.81 | 53.4% | 27.5% | 17:26 | 1:09 | |
| NJD @ TOR | 25.0% | 0.29 | 45.4% | 12.3% | 27.2% | 2.57 | 71.4% | 46.8% | 15:34 | 1:26 | |
| TBL @ WPG | 22.6% | 0.26 | 43.8% | 11.4% | 27.4% | 1.70 | 50.0% | 24.4% | 16:37 | 1:42 | |
| TBL @ WPG | 17.8% | 0.20 | 35.9% | 7.4% | 22.1% | 1.68 | 49.5% | 24.0% | 16:36 | 1:44 | |
| FLA @ BOS | 21.5% | 0.24 | 40.0% | 9.4% | 23.6% | 1.63 | 48.0% | 22.8% | 16:21 | 1:38 | |
| PHI @ CGY | 21.9% | 0.25 | 46.6% | 13.1% | 31.7% | 1.61 | 47.4% | 22.2% | 15:14 | 2:29 | |
| NJD @ TOR | 20.6% | 0.23 | 42.0% | 10.4% | 26.9% | 1.71 | 50.4% | 24.8% | 15:32 | 1:56 | |
| NJD @ TOR | 18.0% | 0.20 | 39.3% | 9.0% | 26.0% | 1.78 | 52.5% | 26.6% | 14:32 | 2:48 | |
| PHI @ CGY | 20.9% | 0.23 | 36.8% | 7.8% | 20.1% | 2.48 | 69.7% | 44.7% | 14:44 | 1:33 | |
| NJD @ TOR | 16.4% | 0.18 | 37.8% | 8.3% | 25.6% | 1.63 | 48.0% | 22.7% | 16:18 | 0:55 | |
| FLA @ BOS | 12.0% | 0.13 | 28.1% | 4.4% | 18.3% | 1.39 | 40.1% | 16.7% | 16:20 | 1:17 | |
| PHI @ CGY | 17.1% | 0.19 | 38.2% | 8.4% | 25.4% | 1.76 | 52.0% | 26.2% | 13:43 | 2:47 | |
| PIT @ ANA | 23.0% | 0.26 | 42.0% | 10.4% | 24.7% | 1.86 | 54.6% | 28.6% | 14:41 | 1:28 | |
| FLA @ BOS | 12.6% | 0.14 | 28.7% | 4.6% | 18.4% | 1.42 | 41.2% | 17.5% | 16:17 | 1:02 | |
| VGK @ BUF | 21.0% | 0.24 | 39.6% | 9.1% | 23.5% | 1.76 | 52.0% | 26.2% | 13:55 | 2:18 | |
| PHI @ CGY | 20.2% | 0.23 | 36.6% | 7.7% | 20.6% | 1.49 | 43.5% | 19.1% | 15:48 | 0:48 | |
| PIT @ ANA | 20.9% | 0.23 | 42.9% | 10.9% | 27.8% | 1.47 | 42.7% | 18.6% | 14:44 | 1:40 | |
| VGK @ BUF | 19.0% | 0.21 | 35.9% | 7.4% | 20.8% | 1.90 | 55.8% | 29.7% | 13:12 | 2:42 | |
| NJD @ TOR | 14.9% | 0.16 | 30.3% | 5.1% | 18.1% | 1.31 | 37.5% | 14.9% | 16:15 | 0:31 | |
| PHI @ CGY | 13.7% | 0.15 | 35.7% | 7.3% | 25.5% | 1.19 | 33.1% | 12.1% | 14:03 | 2:41 | |
| NJD @ TOR | 19.1% | 0.21 | 37.5% | 8.1% | 22.7% | 1.88 | 55.4% | 29.3% | 14:23 | 1:08 | |
| PHI @ CGY | 17.9% | 0.20 | 41.6% | 10.2% | 28.8% | 1.55 | 45.3% | 20.6% | 14:54 | 0:57 | |
| VGK @ BUF | 18.0% | 0.20 | 41.8% | 10.3% | 29.0% | 1.45 | 42.3% | 18.2% | 14:58 | 0:58 | |
| VGK @ BUF | 19.5% | 0.22 | 36.4% | 7.6% | 21.1% | 1.64 | 48.2% | 22.9% | 14:30 | 1:11 | |
| FLA @ BOS | 16.7% | 0.18 | 38.8% | 8.7% | 26.5% | 1.18 | 32.8% | 11.9% | 14:48 | 1:26 | |
| VGK @ BUF | 20.3% | 0.23 | 39.0% | 8.9% | 23.5% | 1.56 | 45.6% | 20.8% | 13:27 | 2:03 | |
| VGK @ BUF | 17.0% | 0.19 | 30.6% | 5.3% | 16.4% | 1.38 | 39.9% | 16.6% | 15:22 | 0:22 | |
| VGK @ BUF | 17.6% | 0.19 | 33.0% | 6.2% | 18.7% | 1.53 | 44.9% | 20.3% | 14:05 | 1:18 | |
| PHI @ CGY | 12.7% | 0.14 | 30.7% | 5.3% | 20.6% | 1.45 | 42.1% | 18.2% | 15:21 | 0:12 | |
| TBL @ WPG | 14.4% | 0.16 | 33.9% | 6.5% | 22.8% | 1.17 | 32.5% | 11.7% | 14:31 | 1:11 | |
| TBL @ WPG | 15.3% | 0.17 | 31.7% | 5.7% | 19.4% | 1.44 | 41.9% | 18.0% | 14:12 | 0:34 | |
| TBL @ WPG | 15.2% | 0.17 | 28.4% | 4.5% | 15.6% | 1.43 | 41.5% | 17.7% | 14:44 | 0:01 | |
| TBL @ WPG | 13.2% | 0.14 | 30.8% | 5.3% | 20.3% | 1.02 | 27.1% | 8.7% | 15:12 | 0:08 | |
| TBL @ WPG | 13.3% | 0.14 | 27.5% | 4.2% | 16.3% | 1.21 | 33.9% | 12.6% | 14:18 | 0:48 | |
| TBL @ WPG | 12.4% | 0.13 | 28.9% | 4.6% | 18.8% | 1.00 | 26.5% | 8.4% | 13:54 | 1:27 | |
| VGK @ BUF | 15.4% | 0.17 | 31.6% | 5.6% | 19.2% | 1.18 | 32.8% | 11.9% | 13:29 | 1:22 | |
| PIT @ ANA | 18.0% | 0.20 | 30.2% | 5.1% | 14.9% | 1.69 | 49.6% | 24.1% | 13:45 | 0:05 | |
| PIT @ ANA | 14.4% | 0.16 | 29.1% | 4.7% | 17.1% | 1.13 | 31.0% | 10.9% | 14:36 | 0:10 | |
| TBL @ WPG | 12.4% | 0.13 | 22.6% | 2.8% | 11.7% | 1.29 | 36.8% | 14.4% | 14:37 | 0:03 | |
| PHI @ CGY | 18.5% | 0.20 | 36.6% | 7.7% | 22.1% | 1.41 | 40.8% | 17.2% | 13:06 | 0:57 | |
| PIT @ ANA | 13.8% | 0.15 | 28.5% | 4.5% | 17.1% | 1.37 | 39.5% | 16.2% | 14:15 | 0:01 | |
| TBL @ WPG | 13.7% | 0.15 | 27.0% | 4.0% | 15.4% | 1.36 | 39.3% | 16.1% | 14:03 | 0:07 | |
| NJD @ TOR | 10.6% | 0.11 | 22.4% | 2.7% | 13.2% | 1.12 | 30.9% | 10.8% | 14:37 | 0:02 | |
| PHI @ CGY | 13.8% | 0.15 | 32.4% | 5.9% | 21.6% | 1.30 | 37.0% | 14.6% | 13:33 | 0:06 | |
| VGK @ BUF | 14.7% | 0.16 | 31.2% | 5.5% | 19.3% | 1.24 | 34.9% | 13.2% | 12:31 | 1:06 | |
| VGK @ BUF | 10.2% | 0.11 | 31.4% | 5.5% | 23.6% | 0.93 | 23.7% | 7.0% | 14:03 | 0:06 | |
| PIT @ ANA | 11.1% | 0.12 | 27.3% | 4.1% | 18.2% | 1.02 | 27.0% | 8.6% | 14:02 | 0:01 | |
| TBL @ WPG | 14.8% | 0.16 | 29.7% | 4.9% | 17.5% | 1.23 | 34.7% | 13.1% | 12:32 | 0:55 | |
| FLA @ BOS | 11.8% | 0.13 | 25.7% | 3.6% | 15.8% | 0.90 | 22.8% | 6.6% | 14:04 | 0:02 | |
| PIT @ ANA | 14.6% | 0.16 | 29.3% | 4.8% | 17.3% | 1.36 | 39.3% | 16.1% | 12:43 | 0:27 | |
| PHI @ CGY | 10.7% | 0.11 | 25.8% | 3.7% | 16.9% | 1.18 | 32.9% | 11.9% | 13:17 | 0:16 | |
| NJD @ TOR | 9.2% | 0.10 | 23.2% | 2.9% | 15.4% | 1.08 | 29.2% | 9.8% | 13:31 | 0:02 | |
| TBL @ WPG | 12.3% | 0.13 | 25.7% | 3.6% | 15.3% | 1.09 | 29.7% | 10.1% | 12:06 | 1:17 | |
| PIT @ ANA | 15.1% | 0.16 | 30.1% | 5.1% | 17.7% | 1.31 | 37.4% | 14.8% | 11:36 | 1:07 | |
| PHI @ CGY | 12.7% | 0.14 | 31.8% | 5.7% | 21.8% | 0.94 | 24.4% | 7.3% | 13:07 | 0:00 | |
| PIT @ ANA | 15.5% | 0.17 | 30.5% | 5.2% | 17.8% | 1.36 | 39.0% | 15.9% | 11:54 | 0:32 | |
| PHI @ CGY | 14.6% | 0.16 | 31.4% | 5.5% | 19.6% | 1.23 | 34.8% | 13.2% | 11:47 | 0:38 | |
| PIT @ ANA | 12.6% | 0.13 | 32.5% | 6.0% | 22.8% | 1.02 | 27.3% | 8.8% | 11:59 | 0:46 | |
| FLA @ BOS | 9.6% | 0.10 | 20.6% | 2.3% | 12.2% | 1.17 | 32.5% | 11.7% | 12:48 | 0:00 | |
| PHI @ CGY | 11.8% | 0.13 | 23.5% | 3.0% | 13.3% | 1.64 | 48.3% | 23.0% | 11:38 | 0:08 | |
| PHI @ CGY | 9.7% | 0.10 | 18.5% | 1.8% | 9.7% | 1.16 | 32.1% | 11.5% | 12:39 | 0:00 | |
| TBL @ WPG | 12.4% | 0.13 | 23.4% | 3.0% | 12.5% | 1.19 | 33.4% | 12.2% | 11:06 | 0:59 | |
| NJD @ TOR | 13.2% | 0.14 | 24.5% | 3.3% | 13.1% | 1.36 | 39.2% | 16.0% | 11:35 | 0:10 | |
| NJD @ TOR | 12.4% | 0.13 | 24.9% | 3.4% | 14.3% | 1.23 | 34.7% | 13.1% | 11:44 | 0:09 | |
| FLA @ BOS | 14.0% | 0.15 | 24.6% | 3.3% | 12.4% | 1.55 | 45.3% | 20.6% | 11:08 | 0:10 | |
| NJD @ TOR | 10.6% | 0.11 | 23.7% | 3.1% | 14.6% | 1.02 | 27.1% | 8.7% | 11:31 | 0:34 | |
| NJD @ TOR | 13.8% | 0.15 | 30.3% | 5.1% | 19.1% | 1.53 | 44.9% | 20.2% | 10:40 | 0:08 | |
| PIT @ ANA | 11.6% | 0.12 | 27.0% | 4.0% | 17.5% | 1.10 | 29.9% | 10.2% | 10:47 | 0:36 | |
| VGK @ BUF | 7.6% | 0.08 | 16.8% | 1.5% | 10.0% | 0.75 | 17.4% | 4.2% | 12:05 | 0:01 | |
| NJD @ TOR | 7.7% | 0.08 | 17.0% | 1.5% | 10.1% | 0.84 | 20.6% | 5.6% | 11:50 | 0:02 | |
| FLA @ BOS | 11.6% | 0.12 | 22.2% | 2.7% | 12.0% | 1.02 | 27.3% | 8.8% | 10:58 | 0:05 | |
| FLA @ BOS | 9.8% | 0.10 | 21.6% | 2.5% | 13.1% | 0.81 | 19.5% | 5.1% | 10:52 | 0:06 | |
| PIT @ ANA | 12.2% | 0.13 | 24.7% | 3.3% | 14.2% | 1.16 | 32.1% | 11.5% | 10:13 | 0:02 | |
| VGK @ BUF | 7.3% | 0.08 | 16.8% | 1.5% | 10.3% | 0.64 | 13.5% | 2.8% | 11:14 | 0:01 | |
| TBL @ WPG | 9.6% | 0.10 | 19.6% | 2.1% | 11.0% | 1.06 | 28.6% | 9.5% | 10:15 | 0:06 | |
| PIT @ ANA | 10.6% | 0.11 | 24.5% | 3.3% | 15.5% | 0.93 | 24.0% | 7.1% | 10:18 | 0:07 | |
| VGK @ BUF | 7.3% | 0.08 | 18.5% | 1.8% | 12.0% | 0.66 | 14.3% | 3.1% | 10:43 | 0:01 | |
| VGK @ BUF | 9.2% | 0.10 | 16.9% | 1.5% | 8.5% | 1.19 | 33.3% | 12.2% | 9:44 | 0:01 | |
| PIT @ ANA | 10.7% | 0.11 | 24.1% | 3.2% | 15.0% | 0.95 | 24.5% | 7.4% | 9:26 | 0:22 | |
| FLA @ BOS | 11.1% | 0.12 | 25.6% | 3.6% | 16.3% | 1.03 | 27.5% | 8.9% | 9:11 | 0:21 | |
| TBL @ WPG | 9.2% | 0.10 | 19.4% | 2.0% | 11.3% | 0.95 | 24.6% | 7.4% | 9:25 | 0:02 | |
| FLA @ BOS | 5.1% | 0.05 | 11.9% | 0.7% | 7.2% | 0.62 | 12.9% | 2.6% | 9:59 | 0:02 | |
| PHI @ CGY | 10.3% | 0.11 | 22.9% | 2.9% | 14.1% | 0.94 | 24.2% | 7.2% | 9:02 | 0:00 | |
| VGK @ BUF | 7.2% | 0.08 | 15.7% | 1.3% | 9.1% | 0.85 | 21.0% | 5.7% | 9:16 | 0:01 | |
| FLA @ BOS | 6.8% | 0.07 | 15.9% | 1.3% | 9.7% | 0.86 | 21.4% | 5.9% | 8:46 | 0:15 | |
| NJD @ TOR | 7.8% | 0.08 | 17.3% | 1.6% | 10.2% | 0.99 | 26.0% | 8.1% | 8:44 | 0:02 | |
| TBL @ WPG | 7.6% | 0.08 | 18.3% | 1.8% | 11.6% | 0.70 | 15.7% | 3.6% | 8:35 | 0:02 | |
| FLA @ BOS | 4.6% | 0.05 | 10.9% | 0.6% | 6.6% | 0.70 | 15.7% | 3.6% | 7:04 | 0:03 |
Defense
| PIT @ ANA | 16.3% | 0.18 | 62.1% | 25.4% | 54.7% | 1.63 | 47.8% | 22.6% | 28:09 | 4:16 | |
| NJD @ TOR | 14.0% | 0.15 | 52.5% | 17.1% | 44.8% | 2.38 | 67.5% | 42.0% | 24:48 | 3:35 | |
| FLA @ BOS | 11.5% | 0.12 | 46.6% | 13.1% | 39.7% | 2.09 | 60.8% | 34.6% | 24:17 | 4:26 | |
| VGK @ BUF | 16.9% | 0.18 | 56.8% | 20.5% | 48.0% | 2.37 | 67.4% | 42.0% | 23:59 | 3:47 | |
| NJD @ TOR | 16.0% | 0.17 | 52.1% | 16.8% | 42.9% | 2.43 | 68.5% | 43.3% | 24:12 | 3:10 | |
| PIT @ ANA | 15.2% | 0.16 | 56.5% | 20.3% | 48.6% | 2.05 | 59.8% | 33.6% | 23:19 | 3:24 | |
| FLA @ BOS | 14.3% | 0.15 | 52.7% | 17.3% | 44.8% | 1.63 | 48.0% | 22.7% | 24:03 | 3:18 | |
| TBL @ WPG | 11.4% | 0.12 | 41.0% | 9.9% | 33.5% | 2.06 | 60.0% | 33.8% | 23:38 | 3:17 | |
| PHI @ CGY | 7.9% | 0.08 | 31.6% | 5.6% | 25.7% | 1.43 | 41.5% | 17.7% | 23:17 | 2:58 | |
| VGK @ BUF | 9.1% | 0.10 | 39.9% | 9.3% | 33.8% | 1.46 | 42.4% | 18.4% | 24:05 | 1:25 | |
| NJD @ TOR | 14.9% | 0.16 | 43.6% | 11.3% | 33.7% | 2.69 | 73.5% | 49.6% | 20:06 | 1:59 | |
| TBL @ WPG | 12.7% | 0.14 | 46.2% | 12.9% | 38.4% | 1.93 | 56.6% | 30.4% | 19:41 | 3:28 | |
| PHI @ CGY | 9.5% | 0.10 | 31.1% | 5.4% | 23.8% | 1.59 | 46.6% | 21.6% | 23:22 | 0:39 | |
| VGK @ BUF | 10.2% | 0.11 | 38.6% | 8.6% | 31.6% | 1.76 | 52.0% | 26.1% | 22:06 | 1:20 | |
| TBL @ WPG | 9.1% | 0.10 | 41.2% | 10.0% | 35.3% | 1.49 | 43.5% | 19.2% | 19:44 | 3:35 | |
| FLA @ BOS | 6.6% | 0.07 | 28.8% | 4.6% | 23.7% | 1.44 | 41.9% | 18.0% | 21:31 | 1:45 | |
| VGK @ BUF | 6.9% | 0.07 | 30.4% | 5.2% | 25.2% | 1.24 | 34.9% | 13.2% | 23:23 | 0:03 | |
| PHI @ CGY | 10.6% | 0.11 | 36.2% | 7.5% | 28.6% | 1.49 | 43.4% | 19.1% | 21:35 | 0:54 | |
| TBL @ WPG | 5.8% | 0.06 | 25.9% | 3.7% | 21.3% | 1.24 | 34.9% | 13.2% | 22:09 | 0:24 | |
| PHI @ CGY | 11.6% | 0.12 | 37.9% | 8.3% | 29.8% | 1.44 | 41.9% | 18.0% | 19:13 | 2:30 | |
| VGK @ BUF | 10.1% | 0.11 | 30.0% | 5.0% | 22.1% | 1.77 | 52.3% | 26.4% | 20:01 | 1:11 | |
| PIT @ ANA | 7.9% | 0.08 | 35.9% | 7.4% | 30.4% | 1.52 | 44.4% | 19.9% | 20:08 | 1:14 | |
| FLA @ BOS | 5.1% | 0.05 | 23.0% | 2.9% | 18.8% | 1.47 | 42.8% | 18.6% | 20:55 | 0:24 | |
| VGK @ BUF | 7.5% | 0.08 | 26.6% | 3.9% | 20.7% | 1.58 | 46.2% | 21.3% | 20:50 | 0:10 | |
| FLA @ BOS | 6.8% | 0.07 | 28.1% | 4.4% | 22.8% | 1.28 | 36.3% | 14.1% | 20:58 | 0:26 | |
| NJD @ TOR | 3.5% | 0.04 | 21.8% | 2.6% | 19.0% | 0.90 | 22.6% | 6.5% | 21:45 | 0:04 | |
| VGK @ BUF | 10.0% | 0.11 | 26.1% | 3.7% | 17.9% | 1.62 | 47.7% | 22.5% | 20:01 | 0:21 | |
| PHI @ CGY | 4.2% | 0.04 | 22.0% | 2.6% | 18.6% | 0.89 | 22.5% | 6.4% | 21:29 | 0:01 | |
| NJD @ TOR | 6.3% | 0.07 | 26.4% | 3.8% | 21.4% | 1.39 | 40.0% | 16.6% | 20:22 | 0:06 | |
| PIT @ ANA | 7.7% | 0.08 | 27.3% | 4.1% | 21.2% | 1.05 | 28.2% | 9.3% | 20:15 | 0:15 | |
| PIT @ ANA | 8.7% | 0.09 | 36.9% | 7.8% | 30.9% | 1.22 | 34.2% | 12.8% | 18:52 | 1:06 | |
| VGK @ BUF | 5.3% | 0.05 | 21.0% | 2.4% | 16.6% | 1.15 | 31.8% | 11.3% | 20:25 | 0:02 | |
| PHI @ CGY | 5.8% | 0.06 | 20.5% | 2.3% | 15.7% | 1.10 | 30.0% | 10.3% | 19:48 | 0:27 | |
| NJD @ TOR | 4.7% | 0.05 | 23.8% | 3.1% | 20.0% | 1.04 | 27.7% | 9.0% | 19:09 | 0:40 | |
| TBL @ WPG | 3.4% | 0.03 | 22.2% | 2.7% | 19.4% | 0.82 | 20.1% | 5.3% | 19:57 | 0:05 | |
| FLA @ BOS | 5.3% | 0.05 | 24.0% | 3.1% | 19.7% | 1.07 | 29.0% | 9.7% | 19:30 | 0:04 | |
| PHI @ CGY | 6.0% | 0.06 | 29.7% | 4.9% | 25.3% | 1.28 | 36.5% | 14.2% | 17:47 | 1:17 | |
| PIT @ ANA | 5.0% | 0.05 | 23.3% | 2.9% | 19.2% | 0.86 | 21.4% | 5.9% | 19:38 | 0:06 | |
| PHI @ CGY | 5.7% | 0.06 | 23.2% | 2.9% | 18.5% | 0.97 | 25.4% | 7.8% | 19:32 | 0:01 | |
| FLA @ BOS | 7.4% | 0.08 | 29.1% | 4.7% | 23.4% | 0.98 | 25.7% | 7.9% | 17:43 | 1:29 | |
| PIT @ ANA | 5.5% | 0.06 | 28.2% | 4.4% | 24.0% | 1.04 | 27.9% | 9.1% | 19:01 | 0:06 | |
| TBL @ WPG | 4.2% | 0.04 | 17.5% | 1.6% | 13.9% | 1.02 | 27.2% | 8.8% | 19:11 | 0:05 | |
| FLA @ BOS | 4.1% | 0.04 | 18.4% | 1.8% | 14.9% | 0.91 | 23.3% | 6.8% | 19:16 | 0:03 | |
| FLA @ BOS | 4.2% | 0.04 | 15.2% | 1.2% | 11.4% | 1.11 | 30.4% | 10.5% | 18:43 | 0:05 | |
| PIT @ ANA | 6.7% | 0.07 | 19.3% | 2.0% | 13.6% | 1.16 | 32.3% | 11.6% | 18:24 | 0:04 | |
| NJD @ TOR | 4.3% | 0.04 | 20.9% | 2.4% | 17.3% | 0.81 | 19.4% | 5.0% | 18:48 | 0:09 | |
| TBL @ WPG | 5.8% | 0.06 | 20.6% | 2.3% | 15.7% | 1.07 | 29.1% | 9.8% | 18:22 | 0:06 | |
| NJD @ TOR | 3.8% | 0.04 | 15.8% | 1.3% | 12.4% | 0.95 | 24.7% | 7.5% | 18:41 | 0:03 | |
| PHI @ CGY | 4.5% | 0.05 | 20.3% | 2.2% | 16.6% | 1.00 | 26.3% | 8.2% | 18:20 | 0:00 | |
| TBL @ WPG | 6.6% | 0.07 | 27.5% | 4.2% | 22.4% | 1.19 | 33.2% | 12.1% | 17:11 | 0:35 | |
| TBL @ WPG | 3.9% | 0.04 | 19.0% | 1.9% | 15.7% | 0.97 | 25.5% | 7.8% | 18:10 | 0:04 | |
| PIT @ ANA | 4.4% | 0.04 | 26.4% | 3.8% | 23.0% | 0.90 | 22.8% | 6.6% | 18:01 | 0:01 | |
| PIT @ ANA | 4.2% | 0.04 | 18.9% | 1.9% | 15.4% | 1.05 | 28.4% | 9.4% | 17:19 | 0:00 | |
| FLA @ BOS | 4.4% | 0.05 | 20.0% | 2.2% | 16.3% | 1.11 | 30.5% | 10.6% | 15:26 | 1:40 | |
| TBL @ WPG | 3.7% | 0.04 | 21.4% | 2.5% | 18.4% | 0.76 | 17.8% | 4.4% | 17:17 | 0:03 | |
| VGK @ BUF | 3.5% | 0.04 | 18.6% | 1.9% | 15.6% | 0.90 | 22.8% | 6.6% | 16:58 | 0:01 | |
| PHI @ CGY | 3.8% | 0.04 | 15.3% | 1.2% | 11.9% | 1.10 | 30.1% | 10.3% | 16:42 | 0:01 | |
| VGK @ BUF | 4.1% | 0.04 | 14.3% | 1.1% | 10.6% | 1.11 | 30.4% | 10.5% | 16:38 | 0:01 | |
| FLA @ BOS | 4.9% | 0.05 | 26.2% | 3.8% | 22.4% | 0.83 | 20.4% | 5.5% | 15:42 | 1:03 | |
| PIT @ ANA | 3.3% | 0.03 | 22.4% | 2.7% | 19.8% | 0.77 | 18.1% | 4.5% | 16:22 | 0:02 | |
| PHI @ CGY | 3.6% | 0.04 | 16.7% | 1.5% | 13.5% | 0.68 | 14.9% | 3.3% | 16:05 | 0:02 | |
| NJD @ TOR | 3.8% | 0.04 | 19.1% | 1.9% | 15.9% | 0.96 | 24.9% | 7.6% | 15:34 | 0:01 | |
| NJD @ TOR | 3.0% | 0.03 | 15.8% | 1.3% | 13.2% | 0.69 | 15.3% | 3.4% | 15:53 | 0:00 | |
| NJD @ TOR | 3.4% | 0.03 | 16.7% | 1.5% | 13.8% | 0.91 | 23.2% | 6.7% | 14:59 | 0:01 | |
| FLA @ BOS | 2.3% | 0.02 | 11.7% | 0.7% | 9.6% | 0.66 | 14.2% | 3.1% | 15:06 | 0:01 | |
| VGK @ BUF | 4.2% | 0.04 | 14.9% | 1.2% | 11.2% | 1.30 | 37.0% | 14.6% | 13:55 | 0:01 | |
| PHI @ CGY | 2.1% | 0.02 | 8.4% | 0.4% | 6.5% | 0.75 | 17.3% | 4.2% | 14:12 | 0:00 | |
| TBL @ WPG | 3.3% | 0.03 | 15.6% | 1.3% | 12.6% | 0.81 | 19.7% | 5.2% | 13:27 | 0:27 | |
| NJD @ TOR | 3.2% | 0.03 | 17.0% | 1.5% | 14.3% | 0.82 | 19.8% | 5.2% | 13:35 | 0:14 | |
| NJD @ TOR | 2.8% | 0.03 | 12.0% | 0.8% | 9.5% | 0.64 | 13.6% | 2.9% | 12:52 | 0:01 | |
| PIT @ ANA | 3.0% | 0.03 | 13.8% | 1.0% | 11.2% | 0.53 | 10.2% | 1.8% | 12:12 | 0:04 | |
| VGK @ BUF | 2.5% | 0.02 | 12.6% | 0.8% | 10.4% | 0.56 | 11.0% | 2.0% | 12:00 | 0:02 | |
| TBL @ WPG | 2.0% | 0.02 | 11.0% | 0.6% | 9.2% | 0.57 | 11.3% | 2.1% | 9:56 | 0:00 |
Tims Hockey Challenge
Tim Hortons Hockey Challenge: one pick per group, and each pick counts if that player scores. Every group is ranked by the model's chance to score. The three best picks: 1.00 expected scorers, 3.3% that all three score.
Group 1
-
Cutter Gauthier
Best46%
-
Jack Hughes
44%
-
David Pastrnak
43%
-
Jake Guentzel
42%
-
Kyle Connor
40%
-
Beckett Sennecke
39%
-
Auston Matthews
39%
-
Brandon Hagel
35%
-
Leo Carlsson
35%
-
Rickard Rakell
35%
-
Brayden Point
35%
-
William Nylander
34%
-
Jack Eichel
33%
-
Sam Reinhart
33%
-
Sidney Crosby
32%
-
Nico Hischier
32%
-
Brady Tkachuk
32%
-
Joel Farabee
29%
-
Matvei Michkov
23%
Group 2
-
Mikael Granlund
Best30%
-
Pavel Zacha
29%
-
Carter Verhaeghe
28%
-
Matthew Tkachuk
27%
-
Mitch Marner
26%
-
Matvei Gridin
25%
-
Zach Benson
25%
-
Jack Roslovic
25%
-
Judd Caulfield
21%
-
William Karlsson
21%
-
Victor Olofsson
19%
-
Aydar Suniev
19%
-
Nick Robertson
18%
-
Gavin McKenna
18%
-
Porter Martone
17%
-
Josh Norris
15%
-
Erik Karlsson
15%
Group 3
-
Mikael Backlund
Best24%
-
Ivan Barbashev
18%
-
Ryan Strome
18%
-
Dawson Mercer
18%
-
Jiri Kulich
18%
-
Casey Mittelstadt
17%
-
Luke Hughes
16%
-
Braeden Bowman
15%
-
Denver Barkey
14%
-
Adam Lowry
13%
-
Sean Couturier
13%
-
John Carlson
13%
-
Jeff Malott
12%
-
Eetu Luostarinen
12%
-
Mark Kastelic
12%
-
Blake Lizotte
11%
-
Noah Cates
11%
-
Shea Theodore
10%
-
Ville Koivunen
Ruled out
Groups via timnhlassist.com, refreshed hourly. Not affiliated with Tim Hortons. Percentages are model estimates, not betting lines.