NHL predictions Mon, Nov 9
Win probabilities, projected goals and totals for every NHL game, plus each skater's chance to score. Methodology →
3 games on this slate · 16–5 since Nov 6 (model V4) →
Games
Biggest factor: Home ice · EDM +0.3 goals
Biggest factor: Home ice · VAN +0.3 goals
Biggest factor: Goaltending · NYI +0.4 goals
How we got this
Forwards
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Leon Draisaitl
|
43% | 0.56 | 73% | 3.27 | 82% | 22:01 | 4:13 |
Connor McDavid
|
40% | 0.52 | 81% | 3.27 | 82% | 23:30 | 4:09 |
Zach Hyman
|
33% | 0.40 | 47% | 2.45 | 69% | 18:03 | 3:21 |
Pavel Dorofeyev
|
32% | 0.38 | 48% | 2.45 | 69% | 16:04 | 2:37 |
Mika Zibanejad
|
29% | 0.35 | 59% | 2.20 | 63% | 20:15 | 2:48 |
Alexis Lafrenière
|
28% | 0.33 | 52% | 2.06 | 60% | 18:17 | 2:47 |
J.T. Miller
|
27% | 0.31 | 58% | 1.86 | 55% | 19:23 | 2:32 |
Gabriel Perreault
|
24% | 0.27 | 43% | 1.75 | 52% | 17:08 | 1:42 |
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
|
23% | 0.26 | 49% | 1.85 | 54% | 16:46 | 3:44 |
Will Cuylle
|
22% | 0.25 | 39% | 1.79 | 53% | 16:32 | 1:18 |
Kasperi Kapanen
|
20% | 0.22 | 38% | 1.80 | 53% | 17:43 | 2:43 |
Vasily Podkolzin
|
19% | 0.21 | 35% | 1.80 | 53% | 15:03 | 1:20 |
Tye Kartye
|
19% | 0.20 | 39% | 1.52 | 44% | 17:25 | 0:48 |
Oliver Bjorkstrand
|
16% | 0.17 | 32% | 1.34 | 39% | 12:31 | 1:11 |
Eeli Tolvanen
|
11% | 0.12 | 24% | 1.18 | 33% | 12:13 | 0:31 |
Noah Laba
|
11% | 0.12 | 27% | 0.90 | 23% | 13:24 | 0:05 |
Jason Dickinson
|
10% | 0.10 | 20% | 1.02 | 27% | 13:31 | 0:08 |
Alex Formenton
|
9% | 0.10 | 21% | 1.10 | 30% | 12:09 | 0:03 |
Mathieu Joseph
|
9% | 0.10 | 22% | 0.95 | 24% | 12:33 | 0:04 |
Owen Michaels
|
8% | 0.09 | 20% | 0.91 | 23% | 11:51 | 0:19 |
Jaroslav Chmelar
|
8% | 0.09 | 17% | 0.79 | 19% | 8:52 | 0:04 |
Trent Frederic
|
8% | 0.09 | 16% | 0.97 | 25% | 9:16 | 0:45 |
Max Jones
|
7% | 0.07 | 14% | 0.84 | 21% | 8:12 | 0:04 |
Matt Rempe
|
7% | 0.07 | 14% | 0.65 | 14% | 7:21 | 0:02 |
Defense
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Evan Bouchard
|
20% | 0.22 | 63% | 2.79 | 75% | 24:52 | 4:20 |
Adam Fox
|
13% | 0.14 | 61% | 1.52 | 44% | 23:54 | 3:29 |
Mattias Ekholm
|
8% | 0.08 | 30% | 1.49 | 43% | 20:38 | 0:29 |
Vladislav Gavrikov
|
7% | 0.07 | 27% | 1.32 | 38% | 22:31 | 0:23 |
Ryan Shea
|
6% | 0.06 | 27% | 0.95 | 25% | 22:28 | 0:56 |
Braden Schneider
|
5% | 0.05 | 19% | 1.20 | 34% | 19:34 | 0:06 |
Scott Morrow
|
5% | 0.05 | 22% | 1.10 | 30% | 14:24 | 0:44 |
Matthew Robertson
|
4% | 0.04 | 18% | 0.96 | 25% | 15:54 | 0:03 |
Marcus Pettersson
|
4% | 0.04 | 23% | 0.81 | 19% | 21:17 | 0:12 |
Connor Murphy
|
4% | 0.04 | 16% | 1.08 | 29% | 20:17 | 0:04 |
Shakir Mukhamadullin
|
3% | 0.03 | 12% | 0.80 | 19% | 14:51 | 0:06 |
Ty Emberson
|
2% | 0.02 | 11% | 0.68 | 15% | 13:15 | 0:01 |
No NHL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their share of the team's expected goals is spread across the dressed lineup.
NYR
Adam SykoraFJoe VelenoFAlberts SmitsDSean DurziD
EDM
Isaac HowardFMatthew SavoieFMattias JanmarkFAlec RegulaD
Anytime Goal excludes shootout goals. Lineups are projected, so a late scratch can change them. Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Goaltending
NYR- Rating
- +0.02
- DailyFaceoff
- Unconfirmed
EDM- Rating
- -0.19
- DailyFaceoff
- D. LeviUnconfirmed
Rating: goals saved per game against a league-average goalie, reset each season. The model uses DailyFaceoff's starter once confirmed or likely, else its own pick.
Model vs market
- Model
- 54.6%
- First line
- 58.3%
- Latest
- 58.3%
Moneyline EDM -155 / NYR +130 (vig removed)
- Model
- 6.4
- First line
- 6.5
- Latest
- 6.5
Over -112 / Under -108
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 4 captures, first 58.3%.
- First line
- DraftKings · 12:51 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings · as of 7:51 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
How the numbers are built
- 5-on-5 playexpected goals for minus against at 5-on-5 NYR +0.04
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals NYR +0.07
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net EDM +0.18
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it EDM +0.28
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances NYR +0.22
- Total shrinkgame total pulled toward a league-average matchup's; the margin is kept 0.00
- Lineupprojected skaters tonight and last game's dressed skaters vs each team's usual EDM +0.17
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score NYR +0.02
- 5-on-5 playboth teams' 5-on-5 expected goals3.73
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals +1.51
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net +0.87
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it +0.01
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances +0.17
- Back-to-back centringevery game: a credit offsetting the average back-to-back effects +0.00
- Total shrinkgame total pulled toward a league-average matchup's; the margin is kept -0.01
- Lineupprojected skaters tonight and last game's dressed skaters vs each team's usual +0.14
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score +0.00
Team comparison
NYR |
EDM | |
|---|---|---|
| Power ratinggoals/gm | 0.1511th of 32 | 0.0115th of 32 |
| 5-on-5 offensexGF/60 | 2.5315th of 32 | 2.3126th of 32 |
| 5-on-5 defensexGA/60 | 2.4614th of 32 | 2.318th of 32 |
| Power playxGF/60 | 8.993rd of 32 | 8.875th of 32 |
| Penalty killxGA/60 | 6.968th of 32 | 8.0619th of 32 |
| Power-play minutesmin | 4.5 | 4.8 |
| Starting goalieGSAx/gm | 0.0210th of 32 | -0.1924th of 32 |
Goaltending
| NYR | EDM | |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Dylan Garand | Tristan Jarry |
| StatusProjected = our pick: most starts in his team's last 10 | Projected | Projected |
| Rating (GSAx/gm)0 = league average; this season blended with his last | +0.02 (#10) | -0.19 (#24) |
Who is out
- Frederik Andersen EDM Out goalie left out of the starter pick
- Igor Shesterkin NYR Out goalie left out of the starter pick
What moves this game
- Regulation winEDM 43%, NYR 34%
- Goes to overtime23%tied after 60 minutes
- Decided in a shootout10%
- Win in OT or shootoutEDM 12%, NYR 12%
Conditions
- Home ice+4.7% home goalsaway goals divided by the same factor
- Back-to-back (NYR)No
- Back-to-back (EDM)No
- Days since last game Not in the modelEDM 2 days, NYR 2 daysbeyond back-to-backs, rest is not modelled
- Skater lineupsProjected: EDM +4.9%, NYR -0.5% goalsDailyFaceoff projected lines, not confirmed participation
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: NHL API (schedule, results), MoneyPuck (expected goals, GSAx), DailyFaceoff (starting goalies), RotoWire (injuries), ESPN (goalie injuries), DailyFaceoff (projected lineups), NHL API (player box scores), MoneyPuck (player expected goals). How the models work →
How we got this
Forwards
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Jake DeBrusk
|
30% | 0.36 | 49% | 2.28 | 65% | 17:23 | 3:01 |
Brock Boeser
|
29% | 0.34 | 53% | 1.91 | 56% | 20:03 | 3:04 |
Matvei Michkov
|
27% | 0.32 | 52% | 2.10 | 61% | 15:39 | 3:14 |
Trevor Zegras
|
27% | 0.31 | 56% | 2.16 | 62% | 18:01 | 3:15 |
Elias Pettersson
|
27% | 0.31 | 61% | 1.66 | 49% | 21:02 | 3:07 |
Owen Tippett
|
26% | 0.30 | 44% | 2.56 | 71% | 15:06 | 1:36 |
Travis Konecny
|
25% | 0.29 | 55% | 2.10 | 61% | 17:39 | 2:21 |
Tyson Foerster
|
24% | 0.27 | 39% | 2.06 | 60% | 16:20 | 1:58 |
Jonathan Lekkerimaki
|
22% | 0.25 | 46% | 1.63 | 48% | 15:29 | 2:44 |
Christian Dvorak
|
22% | 0.25 | 47% | 1.78 | 52% | 18:22 | 1:29 |
Porter Martone
|
21% | 0.24 | 45% | 1.79 | 53% | 14:12 | 2:48 |
Linus Karlsson
|
21% | 0.23 | 42% | 1.59 | 47% | 14:23 | 1:30 |
Marco Rossi
|
20% | 0.22 | 44% | 1.42 | 41% | 15:35 | 2:07 |
Drew O'Connor
|
19% | 0.21 | 34% | 1.49 | 43% | 15:43 | 0:10 |
Denver Barkey
|
17% | 0.19 | 42% | 1.23 | 35% | 13:53 | 2:45 |
Liam Ohgren
|
16% | 0.18 | 33% | 1.37 | 39% | 14:04 | 1:12 |
Paul Cotter
|
15% | 0.17 | 31% | 1.02 | 27% | 13:27 | 1:28 |
Sean Couturier
|
15% | 0.16 | 36% | 1.44 | 42% | 14:57 | 0:13 |
Cole Knuble
|
14% | 0.15 | 28% | 1.61 | 47% | 11:40 | 0:07 |
Brendan Gallagher
|
13% | 0.14 | 26% | 1.26 | 36% | 11:16 | 0:03 |
Noah Cates
|
13% | 0.14 | 31% | 1.19 | 33% | 13:30 | 0:14 |
Max Sasson
|
13% | 0.14 | 24% | 1.03 | 27% | 13:02 | 0:05 |
Noel Acciari
|
12% | 0.13 | 22% | 1.17 | 33% | 12:39 | 0:03 |
Arshdeep Bains
|
9% | 0.10 | 22% | 0.70 | 16% | 10:47 | 0:02 |
Defense
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Travis Sanheim
|
11% | 0.12 | 36% | 1.55 | 45% | 23:13 | 0:37 |
Filip Hronek
|
11% | 0.12 | 55% | 1.55 | 46% | 27:32 | 2:59 |
Jamie Drysdale
|
10% | 0.10 | 38% | 1.48 | 43% | 22:43 | 3:02 |
Oliver Bonk
|
7% | 0.07 | 36% | 1.27 | 36% | 17:50 | 1:23 |
Cam York
|
7% | 0.07 | 25% | 1.10 | 30% | 20:07 | 0:23 |
Zeev Buium
|
7% | 0.07 | 31% | 0.99 | 26% | 22:34 | 1:40 |
Elias Nils Pettersson
|
5% | 0.05 | 17% | 0.86 | 21% | 18:44 | 0:01 |
Guillaume Brisebois
|
5% | 0.05 | 21% | 1.11 | 30% | 16:05 | 0:08 |
Nick Seeler
|
5% | 0.05 | 19% | 1.09 | 30% | 16:37 | 0:01 |
Jamie Oleksiak
|
4% | 0.04 | 19% | 0.84 | 21% | 16:59 | 0:00 |
Luke Schenn
|
3% | 0.03 | 13% | 0.68 | 15% | 12:53 | 0:01 |
Simon Benoit
|
3% | 0.03 | 10% | 0.75 | 17% | 14:31 | 0:00 |
No NHL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their share of the team's expected goals is spread across the dressed lineup.
PHI
Nikita GrebenkinFRasmus RistolainenD
VAN
Filip ChytilF
Anytime Goal excludes shootout goals. Lineups are projected, so a late scratch can change them. Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Goaltending
PHI- Rating
- -0.06
- DailyFaceoff
- Unconfirmed
VAN- Rating
- -0.26
- DailyFaceoff
- K. LankinenUnconfirmed
Rating: goals saved per game against a league-average goalie, reset each season. The model uses DailyFaceoff's starter once confirmed or likely, else its own pick.
Model vs market
- Model
- 53.4%
- First line
- 52.6%
- Latest
- 54.3%
Moneyline VAN +110 / PHI -130 (vig removed) · opened 52.6%
- Model
- 6.3
- First line
- 6.5
- Latest
- 6.5
Over +105 / Under -125
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 4 captures, first 52.6%.
- First line
- DraftKings · 12:51 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings · as of 7:51 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
How the numbers are built
- 5-on-5 playexpected goals for minus against at 5-on-5 PHI +0.20
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals PHI +0.25
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net PHI +0.04
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it VAN +0.28
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances PHI +0.19
- Back-to-back (PHI)PHI played yesterday VAN +0.22
- Total shrinkgame total pulled toward a league-average matchup's; the margin is kept 0.00
- Lineupprojected skaters tonight and last game's dressed skaters vs each team's usual PHI +0.01
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score PHI +0.01
- 5-on-5 playboth teams' 5-on-5 expected goals3.85
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals +1.47
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net +0.68
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it -0.02
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances +0.32
- Back-to-backPHI played yesterday, plus a credit offsetting the average back-to-back effects -0.01
- Total shrinkgame total pulled toward a league-average matchup's; the margin is kept +0.03
- Lineupprojected skaters tonight and last game's dressed skaters vs each team's usual -0.01
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score +0.01
Team comparison
PHI |
VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| Power ratinggoals/gm | -0.5627th of 32 | -1.2632nd of 32 |
| 5-on-5 offensexGF/60 | 2.1630th of 32 | 2.1232nd of 32 |
| 5-on-5 defensexGA/60 | 2.6625th of 32 | 2.9131st of 32 |
| Power playxGF/60 | 7.4518th of 32 | 7.0721st of 32 |
| Penalty killxGA/60 | 6.757th of 32 | 10.0132nd of 32 |
| Power-play minutesmin | 4.7 | 5.1 |
| Starting goalieGSAx/gm | -0.0615th of 32 | -0.2630th of 32 |
Goaltending
| PHI | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Dan Vladar | Leevi Merilinen |
| StatusProjected = our pick: most starts in his team's last 10 | Projected | Projected |
| Rating (GSAx/gm)0 = league average; this season blended with his last | -0.06 (#15) | -0.26 (#30) |
Who is out
- Thatcher Demko VAN Out goalie left out of the starter pick
What moves this game
- Regulation winVAN 35%, PHI 41%
- Goes to overtime24%tied after 60 minutes
- Decided in a shootout10%
- Win in OT or shootoutVAN 12%, PHI 12%
Conditions
- Home ice+4.7% home goalsaway goals divided by the same factor
- Back-to-back (PHI)Yes-0.12 goals to PHI
- Back-to-back (VAN)No
- Days since last game Not in the modelVAN 2 days, PHI 1 daybeyond back-to-backs, rest is not modelled
- Skater lineupsProjected: VAN -0.5%, PHI +0.0% goalsDailyFaceoff projected lines, not confirmed participation; PHI: tonight's lineup not used (a recent game not yet in play
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: NHL API (schedule, results), MoneyPuck (expected goals, GSAx), DailyFaceoff (starting goalies), RotoWire (injuries), ESPN (goalie injuries), DailyFaceoff (projected lineups), NHL API (player box scores), MoneyPuck (player expected goals). How the models work →
How we got this
Forwards
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Macklin Celebrini
|
43% | 0.56 | 76% | 3.90 | 89% | 23:55 | 5:05 |
Bo Horvat
|
41% | 0.53 | 67% | 3.19 | 81% | 21:06 | 3:23 |
Will Smith
|
32% | 0.38 | 58% | 2.50 | 70% | 20:15 | 4:47 |
Kyle Palmieri
|
31% | 0.36 | 55% | 2.30 | 66% | 17:29 | 3:18 |
Simon Holmstrom
|
26% | 0.31 | 53% | 1.67 | 49% | 18:56 | 2:36 |
Brayden Schenn
|
26% | 0.30 | 53% | 1.77 | 52% | 16:42 | 2:54 |
Mason Marchment
|
26% | 0.30 | 51% | 1.89 | 55% | 17:38 | 4:24 |
Tyler Toffoli
|
22% | 0.25 | 42% | 2.18 | 63% | 14:31 | 3:26 |
Victor Eklund
|
22% | 0.25 | 45% | 1.63 | 48% | 14:26 | 1:21 |
Ivar Stenberg
|
22% | 0.25 | 47% | 1.63 | 48% | 16:14 | 3:58 |
Kiefer Sherwood
|
21% | 0.24 | 39% | 2.00 | 59% | 16:55 | 1:42 |
Emil Heineman
|
20% | 0.23 | 36% | 1.64 | 48% | 14:48 | 0:48 |
Michael Misa
|
18% | 0.20 | 42% | 1.41 | 41% | 15:31 | 2:17 |
Jean-Gabriel Pageau
|
17% | 0.19 | 43% | 1.29 | 37% | 15:56 | 0:32 |
Anthony Duclair
|
17% | 0.19 | 37% | 1.34 | 38% | 13:42 | 1:11 |
Collin Graf
|
16% | 0.17 | 32% | 1.32 | 38% | 15:57 | 0:32 |
Ondrej Palat
|
16% | 0.17 | 34% | 1.22 | 34% | 14:05 | 0:54 |
Casey Cizikas
|
12% | 0.13 | 25% | 0.99 | 26% | 11:50 | 0:03 |
Adam Gaudette
|
11% | 0.11 | 20% | 1.09 | 30% | 9:50 | 0:36 |
Mitchell Chaffee
|
10% | 0.11 | 22% | 0.93 | 24% | 10:04 | 0:04 |
Filip Bystedt
|
9% | 0.10 | 21% | 1.07 | 29% | 9:02 | 0:29 |
Kyle MacLean
|
9% | 0.09 | 21% | 0.77 | 18% | 10:30 | 0:01 |
Ty Dellandrea
|
9% | 0.09 | 21% | 0.99 | 26% | 12:51 | 0:05 |
Barclay Goodrow
|
7% | 0.07 | 14% | 0.80 | 19% | 11:14 | 0:03 |
Defense
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Matthew Schaefer
|
27% | 0.32 | 65% | 3.16 | 81% | 26:41 | 3:34 |
Tony DeAngelo
|
9% | 0.10 | 40% | 1.65 | 49% | 19:16 | 1:12 |
Jacob Trouba
|
8% | 0.08 | 30% | 1.69 | 50% | 21:40 | 0:59 |
Darnell Nurse
|
8% | 0.08 | 25% | 1.76 | 52% | 21:51 | 0:03 |
Adam Pelech
|
7% | 0.08 | 28% | 1.40 | 40% | 20:30 | 0:13 |
Logan Stanley
|
7% | 0.07 | 34% | 1.12 | 31% | 21:51 | 0:08 |
Eric Pohlkamp
|
7% | 0.07 | 31% | 1.27 | 36% | 16:08 | 2:26 |
Michael Kesselring
|
6% | 0.06 | 22% | 1.33 | 38% | 18:47 | 0:12 |
Dmitry Orlov
|
5% | 0.06 | 34% | 1.00 | 26% | 16:47 | 2:30 |
Ben Hutton
|
5% | 0.05 | 23% | 1.22 | 34% | 15:05 | 0:02 |
Sam Dickinson
|
5% | 0.05 | 20% | 0.94 | 24% | 17:53 | 0:09 |
Matthew Kessel
|
4% | 0.04 | 17% | 0.82 | 20% | 14:03 | 0:04 |
No NHL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their share of the team's expected goals is spread across the dressed lineup.
NYI
Calum RitchieFMathew BarzalFMatias MaccelliFAlexander RomanovDRyan PulockD
SJS
Alexander WennbergFIgor ChernyshovF
Anytime Goal excludes shootout goals. Lineups are projected, so a late scratch can change them. Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Goaltending
NYI- Rating
- +0.17
- DailyFaceoff
- Unconfirmed
SJS- Rating
- -0.25
- DailyFaceoff
- Unconfirmed
Rating: goals saved per game against a league-average goalie, reset each season. The model uses DailyFaceoff's starter once confirmed or likely, else its own pick.
Model vs market
- Model
- 53.9%
- First line
- 54.3%
- Latest
- 55.1%
Moneyline SJS +114 / NYI -135 (vig removed) · opened 54.3%
- Model
- 6.7
- First line
- 6.5
- Latest
- 6.5
Over +105 / Under -125
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 4 captures, first 54.3%.
- First line
- DraftKings · 12:51 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings · as of 7:51 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
How the numbers are built
- 5-on-5 playexpected goals for minus against at 5-on-5 NYI +0.34
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals NYI +0.06
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net SJS +0.12
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it SJS +0.31
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances NYI +0.43
- Total shrinkgame total pulled toward a league-average matchup's; the margin is kept 0.00
- Lineupprojected skaters tonight and last game's dressed skaters vs each team's usual SJS +0.17
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score NYI +0.01
- 5-on-5 playboth teams' 5-on-5 expected goals4.34
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals +1.51
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net +0.82
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it -0.01
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances +0.08
- Back-to-back centringevery game: a credit offsetting the average back-to-back effects +0.00
- Total shrinkgame total pulled toward a league-average matchup's; the margin is kept -0.13
- Lineupprojected skaters tonight and last game's dressed skaters vs each team's usual +0.14
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score -0.02
Team comparison
NYI |
SJS | |
|---|---|---|
| Power ratinggoals/gm | -0.2421st of 32 | -0.9730th of 32 |
| 5-on-5 offensexGF/60 | 2.5911th of 32 | 2.3027th of 32 |
| 5-on-5 defensexGA/60 | 2.6928th of 32 | 2.8030th of 32 |
| Power playxGF/60 | 6.7625th of 32 | 6.4930th of 32 |
| Penalty killxGA/60 | 8.2324th of 32 | 9.4030th of 32 |
| Power-play minutesmin | 5.0 | 5.5 |
| Starting goalieGSAx/gm | 0.175th of 32 | -0.2529th of 32 |
Goaltending
| NYI | SJS | |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Ilya Sorokin | Yaroslav Askarov |
| StatusProjected = our pick: most starts in his team's last 10 | Projected | Projected |
| Rating (GSAx/gm)0 = league average; this season blended with his last | +0.17 (#5) | -0.25 (#29) |
Who is out
- Kyle Keyser SJS Out goalie left out of the starter pick
What moves this game
- Regulation winSJS 35%, NYI 42%
- Goes to overtime23%tied after 60 minutes
- Decided in a shootout10%
- Win in OT or shootoutSJS 11%, NYI 12%
Conditions
- Home ice+4.7% home goalsaway goals divided by the same factor
- Back-to-back (NYI)No
- Back-to-back (SJS)No
- Days since last game Not in the modelSJS 2 days, NYI 2 daysbeyond back-to-backs, rest is not modelled
- Skater lineupsProjected: SJS +5.0%, NYI -0.3% goalsDailyFaceoff projected lines, not confirmed participation
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: NHL API (schedule, results), MoneyPuck (expected goals, GSAx), DailyFaceoff (starting goalies), RotoWire (injuries), ESPN (goalie injuries), DailyFaceoff (projected lineups), NHL API (player box scores), MoneyPuck (player expected goals). How the models work →
Players
Anytime goal board
- Leon Draisaitl43%
- Macklin Celebrini43%
- Bo Horvat41%
- Connor McDavid40%
- Zach Hyman33%
Forwards
| NYI @ SJS | 42.8% | 0.56 | 76.0% | 41.8% | 58.1% | 3.90 | 88.6% | 72.8% | 23:55 | 5:05 | |
| NYR @ EDM | 40.4% | 0.52 | 80.8% | 49.1% | 67.7% | 3.27 | 82.3% | 62.2% | 23:30 | 4:09 | |
| NYR @ EDM | 42.8% | 0.56 | 72.7% | 37.3% | 52.3% | 3.27 | 82.3% | 62.2% | 22:01 | 4:13 | |
| NYI @ SJS | 41.2% | 0.53 | 66.8% | 30.2% | 43.6% | 3.19 | 81.2% | 60.5% | 21:06 | 3:23 | |
| NYI @ SJS | 31.6% | 0.38 | 58.4% | 21.9% | 39.3% | 2.50 | 70.0% | 45.0% | 20:15 | 4:47 | |
| PHI @ VAN | 26.6% | 0.31 | 61.1% | 24.4% | 47.0% | 1.66 | 49.0% | 23.6% | 21:02 | 3:07 | |
| NYR @ EDM | 29.3% | 0.35 | 58.6% | 22.1% | 41.4% | 2.20 | 63.5% | 37.5% | 20:15 | 2:48 | |
| PHI @ VAN | 29.1% | 0.34 | 53.3% | 17.8% | 34.2% | 1.91 | 56.2% | 30.0% | 20:03 | 3:04 | |
| NYR @ EDM | 32.7% | 0.40 | 47.1% | 13.4% | 21.5% | 2.45 | 68.9% | 43.8% | 18:03 | 3:21 | |
| NYR @ EDM | 26.6% | 0.31 | 57.8% | 21.4% | 42.5% | 1.86 | 54.8% | 28.7% | 19:23 | 2:32 | |
| NYI @ SJS | 25.6% | 0.30 | 50.7% | 15.8% | 33.7% | 1.89 | 55.4% | 29.3% | 17:38 | 4:24 | |
| PHI @ VAN | 27.0% | 0.31 | 56.1% | 20.0% | 39.9% | 2.16 | 62.4% | 36.4% | 18:01 | 3:15 | |
| NYI @ SJS | 30.5% | 0.36 | 54.6% | 18.8% | 34.7% | 2.30 | 65.8% | 40.1% | 17:29 | 3:18 | |
| NYR @ EDM | 28.1% | 0.33 | 52.5% | 17.1% | 34.0% | 2.06 | 60.1% | 33.9% | 18:17 | 2:47 | |
| NYI @ SJS | 26.4% | 0.31 | 52.9% | 17.4% | 35.9% | 1.67 | 49.2% | 23.8% | 18:56 | 2:36 | |
| PHI @ VAN | 30.4% | 0.36 | 49.4% | 14.9% | 27.3% | 2.28 | 65.3% | 39.5% | 17:23 | 3:01 | |
| PHI @ VAN | 25.3% | 0.29 | 55.4% | 19.4% | 40.3% | 2.10 | 61.1% | 35.0% | 17:39 | 2:21 | |
| NYR @ EDM | 22.9% | 0.26 | 48.5% | 14.3% | 33.2% | 1.85 | 54.5% | 28.4% | 16:46 | 3:44 | |
| NYR @ EDM | 19.8% | 0.22 | 38.3% | 8.5% | 23.1% | 1.80 | 53.1% | 27.1% | 17:43 | 2:43 | |
| NYI @ SJS | 22.2% | 0.25 | 46.9% | 13.3% | 31.8% | 1.63 | 47.8% | 22.6% | 16:14 | 3:58 | |
| NYR @ EDM | 31.5% | 0.38 | 48.0% | 14.0% | 24.1% | 2.45 | 69.0% | 43.8% | 16:04 | 2:37 | |
| PHI @ VAN | 21.9% | 0.25 | 46.7% | 13.1% | 31.7% | 1.78 | 52.3% | 26.4% | 18:22 | 1:29 | |
| NYI @ SJS | 25.8% | 0.30 | 53.1% | 17.6% | 36.8% | 1.77 | 52.3% | 26.4% | 16:42 | 2:54 | |
| PHI @ VAN | 27.4% | 0.32 | 52.1% | 16.9% | 34.0% | 2.10 | 61.0% | 34.9% | 15:39 | 3:14 | |
| NYI @ SJS | 21.0% | 0.24 | 39.2% | 9.0% | 23.0% | 2.00 | 58.6% | 32.4% | 16:55 | 1:42 | |
| NYR @ EDM | 24.0% | 0.27 | 42.6% | 10.7% | 24.4% | 1.75 | 51.6% | 25.8% | 17:08 | 1:42 | |
| PHI @ VAN | 23.9% | 0.27 | 39.2% | 9.0% | 20.1% | 2.06 | 60.2% | 34.0% | 16:20 | 1:58 | |
| NYI @ SJS | 22.3% | 0.25 | 42.4% | 10.6% | 25.9% | 2.18 | 63.0% | 37.0% | 14:31 | 3:26 | |
| PHI @ VAN | 22.0% | 0.25 | 45.9% | 12.7% | 30.7% | 1.63 | 47.9% | 22.6% | 15:29 | 2:44 | |
| PHI @ VAN | 25.8% | 0.30 | 43.8% | 11.4% | 24.3% | 2.56 | 71.2% | 46.6% | 15:06 | 1:36 | |
| NYR @ EDM | 21.7% | 0.25 | 38.6% | 8.6% | 21.5% | 1.79 | 52.7% | 26.8% | 16:32 | 1:18 | |
| NYR @ EDM | 18.5% | 0.20 | 38.9% | 8.8% | 25.0% | 1.52 | 44.4% | 19.8% | 17:25 | 0:48 | |
| NYI @ SJS | 18.4% | 0.20 | 41.6% | 10.2% | 28.5% | 1.41 | 40.9% | 17.2% | 15:31 | 2:17 | |
| PHI @ VAN | 19.5% | 0.22 | 43.8% | 11.4% | 30.1% | 1.42 | 41.3% | 17.6% | 15:35 | 2:07 | |
| PHI @ VAN | 21.0% | 0.24 | 45.0% | 12.1% | 30.4% | 1.79 | 52.7% | 26.8% | 14:12 | 2:48 | |
| NYR @ EDM | 18.9% | 0.21 | 34.5% | 6.8% | 19.3% | 1.80 | 53.0% | 27.0% | 15:03 | 1:20 | |
| PHI @ VAN | 17.1% | 0.19 | 42.0% | 10.4% | 30.1% | 1.23 | 34.5% | 13.0% | 13:53 | 2:45 | |
| NYI @ SJS | 17.5% | 0.19 | 43.3% | 11.1% | 31.3% | 1.29 | 36.9% | 14.5% | 15:56 | 0:32 | |
| NYI @ SJS | 22.2% | 0.25 | 45.3% | 12.3% | 29.7% | 1.63 | 47.8% | 22.6% | 14:26 | 1:21 | |
| PHI @ VAN | 20.7% | 0.23 | 41.9% | 10.4% | 26.8% | 1.59 | 46.8% | 21.8% | 14:23 | 1:30 | |
| NYI @ SJS | 15.6% | 0.17 | 31.7% | 5.7% | 19.1% | 1.32 | 37.8% | 15.1% | 15:57 | 0:32 | |
| NYI @ SJS | 20.3% | 0.23 | 36.4% | 7.6% | 20.3% | 1.64 | 48.3% | 23.0% | 14:48 | 0:48 | |
| PHI @ VAN | 19.0% | 0.21 | 33.8% | 6.5% | 18.3% | 1.49 | 43.4% | 19.1% | 15:43 | 0:10 | |
| PHI @ VAN | 15.1% | 0.16 | 36.4% | 7.6% | 25.1% | 1.44 | 42.0% | 18.0% | 14:57 | 0:13 | |
| PHI @ VAN | 16.5% | 0.18 | 32.9% | 6.1% | 19.7% | 1.37 | 39.4% | 16.2% | 14:04 | 1:12 | |
| NYI @ SJS | 17.4% | 0.19 | 36.7% | 7.8% | 23.3% | 1.34 | 38.4% | 15.5% | 13:42 | 1:11 | |
| NYI @ SJS | 15.6% | 0.17 | 33.7% | 6.5% | 21.5% | 1.22 | 34.4% | 12.9% | 14:05 | 0:54 | |
| PHI @ VAN | 15.4% | 0.17 | 31.0% | 5.4% | 18.4% | 1.02 | 27.3% | 8.8% | 13:27 | 1:28 | |
| NYR @ EDM | 15.5% | 0.17 | 32.4% | 5.9% | 20.0% | 1.34 | 38.5% | 15.6% | 12:31 | 1:11 | |
| PHI @ VAN | 13.2% | 0.14 | 31.1% | 5.4% | 20.6% | 1.19 | 33.2% | 12.1% | 13:30 | 0:14 | |
| NYR @ EDM | 9.6% | 0.10 | 19.7% | 2.1% | 11.2% | 1.02 | 27.1% | 8.7% | 13:31 | 0:08 | |
| NYR @ EDM | 11.1% | 0.12 | 26.6% | 3.9% | 17.5% | 0.90 | 22.9% | 6.6% | 13:24 | 0:05 | |
| PHI @ VAN | 12.8% | 0.14 | 24.4% | 3.3% | 13.3% | 1.03 | 27.4% | 8.8% | 13:02 | 0:05 | |
| NYR @ EDM | 11.4% | 0.12 | 23.6% | 3.0% | 13.8% | 1.18 | 32.7% | 11.9% | 12:13 | 0:31 | |
| PHI @ VAN | 12.0% | 0.13 | 22.4% | 2.7% | 11.9% | 1.17 | 32.6% | 11.8% | 12:39 | 0:03 | |
| PHI @ VAN | 14.2% | 0.15 | 27.7% | 4.3% | 15.8% | 1.61 | 47.3% | 22.2% | 11:40 | 0:07 | |
| NYI @ SJS | 9.0% | 0.09 | 21.3% | 2.4% | 13.5% | 0.99 | 26.0% | 8.1% | 12:51 | 0:05 | |
| NYR @ EDM | 9.4% | 0.10 | 22.3% | 2.7% | 14.2% | 0.95 | 24.4% | 7.3% | 12:33 | 0:04 | |
| NYR @ EDM | 9.5% | 0.10 | 20.7% | 2.3% | 12.4% | 1.10 | 30.1% | 10.3% | 12:09 | 0:03 | |
| NYR @ EDM | 8.5% | 0.09 | 19.6% | 2.1% | 12.1% | 0.91 | 23.3% | 6.8% | 11:51 | 0:19 | |
| NYI @ SJS | 11.8% | 0.13 | 24.6% | 3.3% | 14.5% | 0.99 | 26.0% | 8.1% | 11:50 | 0:03 | |
| PHI @ VAN | 13.2% | 0.14 | 25.9% | 3.7% | 14.6% | 1.26 | 35.5% | 13.6% | 11:16 | 0:03 | |
| NYI @ SJS | 6.6% | 0.07 | 13.7% | 1.0% | 7.5% | 0.80 | 19.3% | 5.0% | 11:14 | 0:03 | |
| NYI @ SJS | 10.6% | 0.11 | 19.6% | 2.1% | 10.1% | 1.09 | 29.7% | 10.1% | 9:50 | 0:36 | |
| PHI @ VAN | 9.1% | 0.10 | 21.6% | 2.5% | 13.8% | 0.70 | 15.7% | 3.6% | 10:47 | 0:02 | |
| NYI @ SJS | 9.0% | 0.09 | 20.8% | 2.3% | 12.9% | 0.77 | 18.1% | 4.5% | 10:30 | 0:01 | |
| NYI @ SJS | 10.0% | 0.11 | 22.0% | 2.6% | 13.3% | 0.93 | 23.8% | 7.0% | 10:04 | 0:04 | |
| NYR @ EDM | 8.2% | 0.09 | 15.7% | 1.3% | 8.2% | 0.97 | 25.3% | 7.7% | 9:16 | 0:45 | |
| NYI @ SJS | 9.1% | 0.10 | 21.0% | 2.4% | 13.1% | 1.07 | 28.9% | 9.7% | 9:02 | 0:29 | |
| NYR @ EDM | 8.3% | 0.09 | 17.3% | 1.6% | 9.8% | 0.79 | 19.0% | 4.9% | 8:52 | 0:04 | |
| NYR @ EDM | 7.2% | 0.07 | 14.4% | 1.1% | 7.7% | 0.84 | 20.8% | 5.6% | 8:12 | 0:04 | |
| NYR @ EDM | 6.6% | 0.07 | 13.8% | 1.0% | 7.8% | 0.65 | 14.0% | 3.0% | 7:21 | 0:02 |
Defense
| NYI @ SJS | 27.1% | 0.32 | 65.4% | 28.7% | 52.6% | 3.16 | 80.9% | 59.9% | 26:41 | 3:34 | |
| NYR @ EDM | 20.1% | 0.22 | 63.0% | 26.2% | 53.7% | 2.79 | 75.3% | 51.9% | 24:52 | 4:20 | |
| PHI @ VAN | 11.2% | 0.12 | 55.0% | 19.0% | 49.3% | 1.55 | 45.5% | 20.8% | 27:32 | 2:59 | |
| NYR @ EDM | 12.6% | 0.14 | 60.6% | 23.9% | 54.9% | 1.52 | 44.4% | 19.9% | 23:54 | 3:29 | |
| PHI @ VAN | 9.6% | 0.10 | 37.8% | 8.3% | 31.2% | 1.48 | 43.1% | 18.9% | 22:43 | 3:02 | |
| PHI @ VAN | 11.4% | 0.12 | 36.3% | 7.6% | 28.1% | 1.55 | 45.5% | 20.7% | 23:13 | 0:37 | |
| PHI @ VAN | 6.9% | 0.07 | 31.3% | 5.5% | 26.2% | 0.99 | 26.0% | 8.1% | 22:34 | 1:40 | |
| NYI @ SJS | 7.9% | 0.08 | 30.5% | 5.2% | 24.5% | 1.69 | 49.7% | 24.2% | 21:40 | 0:59 | |
| NYR @ EDM | 7.1% | 0.07 | 27.4% | 4.1% | 21.8% | 1.32 | 37.6% | 15.0% | 22:31 | 0:23 | |
| NYR @ EDM | 5.7% | 0.06 | 27.0% | 4.0% | 22.7% | 0.95 | 24.5% | 7.4% | 22:28 | 0:56 | |
| NYI @ SJS | 7.8% | 0.08 | 24.6% | 3.3% | 18.1% | 1.76 | 51.7% | 25.9% | 21:51 | 0:03 | |
| NYI @ SJS | 7.1% | 0.07 | 33.8% | 6.5% | 28.8% | 1.12 | 30.7% | 10.7% | 21:51 | 0:08 | |
| NYR @ EDM | 7.9% | 0.08 | 30.5% | 5.2% | 24.5% | 1.49 | 43.4% | 19.1% | 20:38 | 0:29 | |
| NYI @ SJS | 9.3% | 0.10 | 40.3% | 9.5% | 34.2% | 1.65 | 48.6% | 23.2% | 19:16 | 1:12 | |
| NYI @ SJS | 7.4% | 0.08 | 28.4% | 4.5% | 22.6% | 1.40 | 40.5% | 16.9% | 20:30 | 0:13 | |
| NYR @ EDM | 4.0% | 0.04 | 23.5% | 3.0% | 20.3% | 0.81 | 19.4% | 5.1% | 21:17 | 0:12 | |
| PHI @ VAN | 7.1% | 0.07 | 24.5% | 3.3% | 18.8% | 1.10 | 29.9% | 10.2% | 20:07 | 0:23 | |
| NYR @ EDM | 3.6% | 0.04 | 15.8% | 1.3% | 12.7% | 1.08 | 29.3% | 9.9% | 20:17 | 0:04 | |
| PHI @ VAN | 7.2% | 0.07 | 35.8% | 7.4% | 30.9% | 1.27 | 36.2% | 14.0% | 17:50 | 1:23 | |
| NYR @ EDM | 4.8% | 0.05 | 19.4% | 2.0% | 15.4% | 1.20 | 33.7% | 12.5% | 19:34 | 0:06 | |
| NYI @ SJS | 5.4% | 0.06 | 33.9% | 6.6% | 30.1% | 1.00 | 26.5% | 8.4% | 16:47 | 2:30 | |
| NYI @ SJS | 5.6% | 0.06 | 22.0% | 2.6% | 17.3% | 1.33 | 38.2% | 15.4% | 18:47 | 0:12 | |
| NYI @ SJS | 6.7% | 0.07 | 30.8% | 5.3% | 25.8% | 1.27 | 36.0% | 13.9% | 16:08 | 2:26 | |
| PHI @ VAN | 5.1% | 0.05 | 17.3% | 1.6% | 12.8% | 0.86 | 21.3% | 5.9% | 18:44 | 0:01 | |
| NYI @ SJS | 4.9% | 0.05 | 19.7% | 2.1% | 15.6% | 0.94 | 24.2% | 7.2% | 17:53 | 0:09 | |
| PHI @ VAN | 4.8% | 0.05 | 18.9% | 1.9% | 14.9% | 1.09 | 29.8% | 10.1% | 16:37 | 0:01 | |
| PHI @ VAN | 4.2% | 0.04 | 18.9% | 1.9% | 15.4% | 0.84 | 20.8% | 5.6% | 16:59 | 0:00 | |
| PHI @ VAN | 4.9% | 0.05 | 21.4% | 2.5% | 17.3% | 1.11 | 30.4% | 10.5% | 16:05 | 0:08 | |
| NYR @ EDM | 4.3% | 0.04 | 17.7% | 1.7% | 14.0% | 0.96 | 25.1% | 7.6% | 15:54 | 0:03 | |
| NYI @ SJS | 5.2% | 0.05 | 23.2% | 2.9% | 18.9% | 1.22 | 34.3% | 12.8% | 15:05 | 0:02 | |
| NYR @ EDM | 4.6% | 0.05 | 21.8% | 2.6% | 18.1% | 1.10 | 29.9% | 10.2% | 14:24 | 0:44 | |
| NYR @ EDM | 3.0% | 0.03 | 11.6% | 0.7% | 8.9% | 0.80 | 19.0% | 4.9% | 14:51 | 0:06 | |
| PHI @ VAN | 2.6% | 0.03 | 10.4% | 0.6% | 8.1% | 0.75 | 17.4% | 4.3% | 14:31 | 0:00 | |
| NYI @ SJS | 4.0% | 0.04 | 17.5% | 1.6% | 14.0% | 0.82 | 20.0% | 5.3% | 14:03 | 0:04 | |
| NYR @ EDM | 1.9% | 0.02 | 11.1% | 0.6% | 9.4% | 0.68 | 15.1% | 3.4% | 13:15 | 0:01 | |
| PHI @ VAN | 2.8% | 0.03 | 12.6% | 0.8% | 10.1% | 0.68 | 14.8% | 3.3% | 12:53 | 0:01 |