NHL predictions Fri, Oct 30
Win probabilities, projected goals and totals for every NHL game, plus each skater's chance to score. Methodology →
3 games on this slate
Games
Biggest factor: Home ice (VGK) · VGK +0.3 goals
Biggest factor: Power play and kill (FLA) · FLA +0.3 goals
Biggest factor: Goaltending (SEA) · SEA +0.3 goals
How we got this
Forwards
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Jack Hughes
|
35% | 0.44 | 67% | 3.12 | 80% | 20:00 | 3:23 |
Jack Eichel
|
34% | 0.42 | 68% | 2.80 | 76% | 19:56 | 3:26 |
Mark Stone
|
30% | 0.35 | 61% | 1.91 | 56% | 18:33 | 3:10 |
Nico Hischier
|
28% | 0.33 | 51% | 2.09 | 61% | 17:56 | 3:13 |
Tomas Hertl
|
27% | 0.32 | 47% | 2.04 | 60% | 14:55 | 3:16 |
Mitch Marner
|
27% | 0.31 | 65% | 2.00 | 59% | 19:19 | 4:06 |
Timo Meier
|
25% | 0.29 | 42% | 2.51 | 70% | 16:03 | 1:20 |
Jesper Bratt
|
23% | 0.26 | 57% | 1.85 | 54% | 16:59 | 3:09 |
Trevor Connelly
|
22% | 0.25 | 43% | 1.65 | 49% | 14:43 | 2:49 |
Luke Evangelista
|
22% | 0.25 | 51% | 2.10 | 61% | 16:57 | 3:23 |
William Karlsson
|
22% | 0.24 | 41% | 1.79 | 53% | 17:00 | 1:05 |
Ivan Barbashev
|
21% | 0.23 | 46% | 1.46 | 42% | 16:37 | 0:59 |
Arseny Gritsyuk
|
19% | 0.21 | 37% | 1.88 | 55% | 14:59 | 1:05 |
Brett Howden
|
18% | 0.19 | 31% | 1.34 | 39% | 14:57 | 0:11 |
Evan Rodrigues
|
18% | 0.19 | 35% | 1.66 | 49% | 15:20 | 1:32 |
Braeden Bowman
|
17% | 0.19 | 36% | 1.27 | 36% | 13:49 | 1:12 |
Connor Brown
|
17% | 0.19 | 36% | 1.43 | 42% | 15:39 | 1:09 |
Anthony Mantha
|
17% | 0.18 | 35% | 1.32 | 38% | 13:29 | 1:10 |
Amadeus Lombardi
|
13% | 0.14 | 29% | 1.47 | 43% | 11:30 | 0:14 |
Cody Glass
|
12% | 0.13 | 23% | 1.20 | 34% | 12:27 | 0:14 |
Marc Gatcomb
|
12% | 0.12 | 20% | 1.34 | 38% | 11:13 | 0:01 |
Raphael Lavoie
|
11% | 0.11 | 23% | 1.04 | 28% | 10:18 | 0:06 |
Jesper Boqvist
|
10% | 0.11 | 22% | 1.02 | 27% | 11:49 | 0:12 |
Nic Dowd
|
8% | 0.09 | 21% | 0.71 | 16% | 11:30 | 0:02 |
Defense
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Luke Hughes
|
13% | 0.13 | 45% | 1.99 | 58% | 23:16 | 3:15 |
Dougie Hamilton
|
11% | 0.12 | 35% | 2.08 | 61% | 19:44 | 1:17 |
Shea Theodore
|
11% | 0.11 | 41% | 1.71 | 50% | 21:46 | 1:22 |
Rasmus Andersson
|
10% | 0.11 | 30% | 1.61 | 47% | 19:38 | 1:03 |
Noah Hanifin
|
8% | 0.08 | 28% | 1.45 | 42% | 20:44 | 0:15 |
Brayden McNabb
|
6% | 0.06 | 22% | 1.14 | 32% | 20:18 | 0:01 |
Brett Pesce
|
5% | 0.05 | 21% | 1.09 | 30% | 20:03 | 0:07 |
Jeremy Lauzon
|
5% | 0.05 | 15% | 1.14 | 31% | 17:13 | 0:02 |
Ville Heinola
|
4% | 0.05 | 18% | 0.94 | 24% | 14:29 | 0:12 |
Jonas Siegenthaler
|
4% | 0.04 | 18% | 0.68 | 15% | 19:32 | 0:08 |
Declan Chisholm
|
3% | 0.03 | 17% | 0.68 | 15% | 15:08 | 0:27 |
Brenden Dillon
|
3% | 0.03 | 14% | 0.57 | 11% | 16:10 | 0:00 |
No NHL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their share of the team's expected goals is spread across the dressed lineup.
NJD
Seamus CaseyD
VGK
Victor OlofssonFParker WotherspoonD
Anytime Goal excludes shootout goals. Lineups are projected, so a late scratch can change them. Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Goaltending
NJD- Rating
- -0.10
- DailyFaceoff
- C. HellebuyckUnconfirmed
VGK- Rating
- -0.16
- DailyFaceoff
- Unconfirmed
Rating: goals saved per game against a league-average goalie, reset each season. The model uses DailyFaceoff's starter once confirmed or likely, else its own pick.
Model vs market
- Model
- 52.7%
- First line
- 51.1%
- Latest
- 51.1%
Moneyline VGK -115 / NJD -105 (vig removed)
- Model
- 6.5
- First line
- 6.5
- Latest
- 6.5
Over +110 / Under -130
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 51.1%.
- First line
- DraftKings · 6:50 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings · as of 9:50 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
How the numbers are built
- 5-on-5 playexpected goals for minus against at 5-on-5 0.00
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals VGK +0.06
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net NJD +0.10
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it VGK +0.29
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances NJD +0.06
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score NJD +0.02
- 5-on-5 playboth teams' 5-on-5 expected goals3.93
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals +1.30
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net +0.99
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it +0.01
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances +0.26
- Back-to-back centringevery game: a credit offsetting the average away back-to-back penalty +0.03
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score -0.01
Team comparison
NJD |
VGK | |
|---|---|---|
| Power ratinggoals/gm | 0.516th of 32 | 0.397th of 32 |
| 5-on-5 offensexGF/60 | 2.718th of 32 | 2.689th of 32 |
| 5-on-5 defensexGA/60 | 2.275th of 32 | 2.242nd of 32 |
| Power playxGF/60 | 8.626th of 32 | 8.309th of 32 |
| Penalty killxGA/60 | 7.0913th of 32 | 6.436th of 32 |
| Power-play minutesmin | 4.4 | 4.6 |
| Starting goalieGSAx/gm | -0.1022nd of 32 | -0.1627th of 32 |
Goaltending
| NJD | VGK | |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Jake Allen | Adin Hill |
| StatusProjected = our pick: most starts in his team's last 10 | Projected | Projected |
| Rating (GSAx/gm)0 = league average; resets each season | -0.10 (#22) | -0.16 (#27) |
What moves this game
- Regulation winVGK 41%, NJD 36%
- Goes to overtime24%tied after 60 minutes
- Decided in a shootout10%
- Win in OT or shootoutVGK 12%, NJD 12%
Conditions
- Home ice+4.7% home goalsaway goals divided by the same factor
- Back-to-back (NJD)No
- Back-to-back (VGK) Not in the modelNothe model adjusts only the away team
- Days since last game Not in the modelVGK 3 days, NJD 2 daysbeyond the away back-to-back, rest is not modelled
- Skater injuries Not in the modelNot in game modelgoalie injuries change the starter; props use lineups
Model nhl-2026-27 · data as of · Sources: NHL API (schedule, results), MoneyPuck (expected goals, GSAx), DailyFaceoff (starting goalies), RotoWire (injuries). How the models work →
How we got this
Forwards
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Sam Reinhart
|
38% | 0.48 | 64% | 2.64 | 73% | 19:52 | 4:52 |
Kyle Connor
|
37% | 0.47 | 64% | 3.27 | 82% | 21:32 | 3:35 |
Brady Tkachuk
|
35% | 0.43 | 61% | 3.16 | 81% | 16:05 | 4:19 |
Matthew Tkachuk
|
33% | 0.39 | 71% | 2.48 | 70% | 17:59 | 4:45 |
Carter Verhaeghe
|
31% | 0.38 | 56% | 2.42 | 68% | 17:50 | 3:50 |
Mark Scheifele
|
29% | 0.34 | 63% | 2.13 | 62% | 21:20 | 3:40 |
Sam Bennett
|
29% | 0.34 | 51% | 2.47 | 69% | 17:12 | 2:46 |
Cole Perfetti
|
26% | 0.30 | 48% | 2.33 | 67% | 17:56 | 3:17 |
Gabriel Vilardi
|
23% | 0.27 | 49% | 1.75 | 52% | 17:14 | 3:29 |
Anton Lundell
|
22% | 0.25 | 44% | 2.06 | 60% | 17:26 | 2:10 |
Dawson Mercer
|
16% | 0.17 | 32% | 1.66 | 49% | 15:46 | 1:41 |
Eetu Luostarinen
|
15% | 0.16 | 33% | 1.39 | 40% | 16:08 | 1:25 |
Lars Eller
|
15% | 0.16 | 32% | 1.33 | 38% | 16:03 | 1:03 |
Sandis Vilmanis
|
13% | 0.14 | 27% | 1.26 | 36% | 12:30 | 0:16 |
Adam Lowry
|
12% | 0.13 | 29% | 1.07 | 29% | 14:38 | 0:07 |
Isak Rosen
|
12% | 0.13 | 26% | 1.23 | 34% | 12:50 | 1:10 |
Alex Iafallo
|
12% | 0.13 | 25% | 1.23 | 35% | 13:27 | 0:26 |
Morgan Barron
|
12% | 0.12 | 23% | 1.27 | 36% | 12:59 | 0:01 |
Viggo Björck
|
12% | 0.12 | 26% | 1.12 | 31% | 13:02 | 1:03 |
Cole Schwindt
|
10% | 0.11 | 23% | 1.02 | 27% | 10:04 | 0:16 |
Cole Koepke
|
9% | 0.10 | 18% | 1.09 | 30% | 10:08 | 0:03 |
Brad Lambert
|
7% | 0.08 | 19% | 0.77 | 18% | 9:17 | 0:34 |
Garnet Hathaway
|
7% | 0.07 | 15% | 0.66 | 14% | 10:48 | 0:01 |
Bokondji Imama
|
7% | 0.07 | 16% | 0.78 | 18% | 8:17 | 0:03 |
Defense
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Seth Jones
|
13% | 0.14 | 52% | 2.06 | 60% | 24:10 | 4:11 |
Neal Pionk
|
9% | 0.10 | 38% | 1.95 | 57% | 23:37 | 2:54 |
Aaron Ekblad
|
8% | 0.08 | 35% | 1.34 | 38% | 21:14 | 1:56 |
Gustav Forsling
|
7% | 0.07 | 29% | 1.48 | 43% | 21:29 | 0:28 |
Niko Mikkola
|
6% | 0.06 | 20% | 1.17 | 33% | 20:07 | 0:08 |
Elias Salomonsson
|
5% | 0.05 | 20% | 1.13 | 31% | 17:06 | 0:50 |
Dylan Samberg
|
5% | 0.05 | 23% | 1.27 | 36% | 21:24 | 0:12 |
Mario Ferraro
|
4% | 0.04 | 17% | 1.08 | 29% | 19:26 | 0:03 |
Haydn Fleury
|
4% | 0.04 | 17% | 0.85 | 21% | 15:19 | 0:42 |
Dylan DeMelo
|
3% | 0.03 | 19% | 0.83 | 20% | 19:57 | 0:06 |
Dmitry Kulikov
|
3% | 0.03 | 15% | 0.67 | 15% | 15:39 | 0:01 |
Radko Gudas
|
3% | 0.03 | 15% | 0.84 | 21% | 14:07 | 0:00 |
No NHL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their share of the team's expected goals is spread across the dressed lineup.
WPG
Vladislav NamestnikovFGarrett BrownDJosh MorrisseyDNick Bjugstad
FLA
Aleksander BarkovFBrad MarchandFJonah GadjovichF
Anytime Goal excludes shootout goals. Lineups are projected, so a late scratch can change them. Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Goaltending
WPG- Rating
- +0.05
- DailyFaceoff
- N. DawsUnconfirmed
FLA- Rating
- -0.10
- DailyFaceoff
- Unconfirmed
Rating: goals saved per game against a league-average goalie, reset each season. The model uses DailyFaceoff's starter once confirmed or likely, else its own pick.
Model vs market
- Model
- 61.3%
- First line
- 65.7%
- Latest
- 65.7%
Moneyline FLA -218 / WPG +180 (vig removed)
- Model
- 6.1
- First line
- 6.5
- Latest
- 5.5
Over -135 / Under +114 · opened 6.5
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 65.7%.
- First line
- DraftKings · 6:50 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings · as of 9:50 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
How the numbers are built
- 5-on-5 playexpected goals for minus against at 5-on-5 FLA +0.24
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals FLA +0.35
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net WPG +0.11
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it FLA +0.29
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances WPG +0.15
- Back-to-back (WPG)WPG played yesterday: -0.12 goals to WPG FLA +0.12
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score WPG +0.03
- 5-on-5 playboth teams' 5-on-5 expected goals3.79
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals +1.64
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net +0.73
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it +0.03
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances +0.04
- Back-to-backWPG played yesterday (-0.12), plus a credit offsetting the average away back-to-back penalty -0.09
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score +0.01
Team comparison
WPG |
FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| Power ratinggoals/gm | -0.2322nd of 32 | 0.0613th of 32 |
| 5-on-5 offensexGF/60 | 2.3724th of 32 | 2.4221st of 32 |
| 5-on-5 defensexGA/60 | 2.5820th of 32 | 2.318th of 32 |
| Power playxGF/60 | 7.7112th of 32 | 8.933rd of 32 |
| Penalty killxGA/60 | 8.6430th of 32 | 6.335th of 32 |
| Power-play minutesmin | 5.1 | 5.3 |
| Starting goalieGSAx/gm | 0.0510th of 32 | -0.1021st of 32 |
Goaltending
| WPG | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Stuart Skinner | Akira Schmid |
| StatusProjected = our pick: most starts in his team's last 10 | Projected | Projected |
| Rating (GSAx/gm)0 = league average; resets each season | +0.05 (#10) | -0.10 (#21) |
Who is out
- Jacob Markstrom FLA Out goalie left out of the starter pick
What moves this game
- Regulation winFLA 49%, WPG 28%
- Goes to overtime23%tied after 60 minutes
- Decided in a shootout10%
- Win in OT or shootoutFLA 12%, WPG 11%
Conditions
- Home ice+4.7% home goalsaway goals divided by the same factor
- Back-to-back (WPG)Yes-0.12 goals to WPG
- Back-to-back (FLA) Not in the modelNothe model adjusts only the away team
- Days since last game Not in the modelFLA 3 days, WPG 1 daybeyond the away back-to-back, rest is not modelled
- Skater injuries Not in the modelNot in game modelgoalie injuries change the starter; props use lineups
Model nhl-2026-27 · data as of · Sources: NHL API (schedule, results), MoneyPuck (expected goals, GSAx), DailyFaceoff (starting goalies), RotoWire (injuries). How the models work →
How we got this
Forwards
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Bobby McMann
|
29% | 0.34 | 47% | 2.68 | 74% | 17:14 | 2:25 |
Matt Coronato
|
29% | 0.34 | 56% | 2.55 | 71% | 17:43 | 2:43 |
Joel Farabee
|
28% | 0.33 | 53% | 2.24 | 64% | 18:53 | 2:29 |
Matvei Gridin
|
27% | 0.31 | 55% | 2.25 | 65% | 17:10 | 2:40 |
Jordan Eberle
|
26% | 0.30 | 50% | 2.16 | 63% | 17:31 | 2:45 |
Matty Beniers
|
24% | 0.28 | 46% | 1.75 | 51% | 18:49 | 2:38 |
Mikael Backlund
|
23% | 0.27 | 44% | 2.35 | 67% | 18:11 | 0:14 |
Mackie Samoskevich
|
23% | 0.26 | 41% | 2.04 | 60% | 14:58 | 1:35 |
Morgan Frost
|
23% | 0.26 | 47% | 1.85 | 54% | 14:58 | 2:42 |
Yegor Sharangovich
|
21% | 0.23 | 38% | 1.69 | 50% | 15:22 | 1:05 |
Berkly Catton
|
20% | 0.22 | 41% | 1.65 | 49% | 14:25 | 2:23 |
Shane Wright
|
19% | 0.21 | 37% | 1.46 | 42% | 14:11 | 1:57 |
Aydar Suniev
|
19% | 0.21 | 39% | 1.68 | 50% | 13:06 | 1:18 |
Ryan Strome
|
19% | 0.21 | 43% | 1.75 | 52% | 15:11 | 1:14 |
Kaapo Kakko
|
17% | 0.19 | 43% | 1.30 | 37% | 14:22 | 2:17 |
Chandler Stephenson
|
16% | 0.17 | 47% | 1.17 | 32% | 17:54 | 2:46 |
Adam Klapka
|
15% | 0.16 | 32% | 1.34 | 39% | 12:09 | 0:38 |
Jonathan Castagna
|
14% | 0.15 | 32% | 1.12 | 31% | 13:29 | 0:01 |
Martin Pospisil
|
14% | 0.15 | 33% | 1.48 | 43% | 13:37 | 0:04 |
Jani Nyman
|
13% | 0.14 | 26% | 1.25 | 35% | 10:30 | 0:41 |
Ryan Winterton
|
13% | 0.14 | 29% | 1.46 | 43% | 12:32 | 0:01 |
Frederick Gaudreau
|
13% | 0.13 | 29% | 1.20 | 34% | 15:34 | 0:02 |
Ben Meyers
|
12% | 0.13 | 28% | 1.24 | 35% | 12:30 | 0:03 |
Brennan Othmann
|
10% | 0.10 | 21% | 0.94 | 24% | 8:37 | 0:10 |
Defense
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Brandon Montour
|
18% | 0.20 | 44% | 2.57 | 71% | 24:12 | 2:18 |
Vince Dunn
|
13% | 0.14 | 47% | 2.22 | 64% | 22:56 | 2:55 |
Zayne Parekh
|
12% | 0.13 | 37% | 1.64 | 48% | 17:45 | 2:47 |
Simon Nemec
|
12% | 0.12 | 39% | 1.61 | 47% | 22:06 | 1:11 |
Ryker Evans
|
6% | 0.06 | 27% | 1.03 | 27% | 21:23 | 0:34 |
Adam Larsson
|
6% | 0.06 | 24% | 1.30 | 37% | 20:41 | 0:03 |
Jacob Middleton
|
6% | 0.06 | 23% | 1.03 | 28% | 18:18 | 0:01 |
Kevin Bahl
|
5% | 0.05 | 25% | 0.97 | 25% | 22:37 | 0:06 |
Zach Whitecloud
|
4% | 0.04 | 22% | 1.01 | 27% | 20:39 | 0:01 |
Yan Kuznetsov
|
4% | 0.04 | 20% | 1.08 | 29% | 17:09 | 0:01 |
Joshua Mahura
|
4% | 0.04 | 17% | 0.84 | 21% | 13:47 | 0:01 |
Cale Fleury
|
3% | 0.04 | 15% | 0.93 | 24% | 13:29 | 0:01 |
No NHL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their share of the team's expected goals is spread across the dressed lineup.
SEA
Jacob MelansonFJared McCannFRyan LindgrenD
CGY
Jonathan HuberdeauFSamuel HonzekF
Anytime Goal excludes shootout goals. Lineups are projected, so a late scratch can change them. Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Goaltending
SEA- Rating
- -0.01
- DailyFaceoff
- J. DaccordUnconfirmed
CGY- Rating
- -0.30
- DailyFaceoff
- Unconfirmed
Rating: goals saved per game against a league-average goalie, reset each season. The model uses DailyFaceoff's starter once confirmed or likely, else its own pick.
Model vs market
- Model
- 52.0%
- First line
- 48.9%
- Latest
- 48.9%
Moneyline CGY -105 / SEA -115 (vig removed)
- Model
- 6.3
- First line
- 6.5
- Latest
- 6.5
Over +102 / Under -122
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 48.9%.
- First line
- DraftKings · 6:50 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings · as of 9:50 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
How the numbers are built
- 5-on-5 playexpected goals for minus against at 5-on-5 CGY +0.17
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals SEA +0.07
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net CGY +0.06
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it CGY +0.28
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances SEA +0.29
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score SEA +0.02
- 5-on-5 playboth teams' 5-on-5 expected goals4.01
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals +1.22
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net +0.73
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it +0.01
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances +0.32
- Back-to-back centringevery game: a credit offsetting the average away back-to-back penalty +0.03
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score +0.01
Team comparison
SEA |
CGY | |
|---|---|---|
| Power ratinggoals/gm | -0.5328th of 32 | -0.6531st of 32 |
| 5-on-5 offensexGF/60 | 2.2329th of 32 | 2.4122nd of 32 |
| 5-on-5 defensexGA/60 | 2.6827th of 32 | 2.6625th of 32 |
| Power playxGF/60 | 6.7425th of 32 | 6.4231st of 32 |
| Penalty killxGA/60 | 8.2925th of 32 | 7.7820th of 32 |
| Power-play minutesmin | 4.9 | 4.2 |
| Starting goalieGSAx/gm | -0.0114th of 32 | -0.3032nd of 32 |
Goaltending
| SEA | CGY | |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Philipp Grubauer | Dustin Wolf |
| StatusProjected = our pick: most starts in his team's last 10 | Projected | Projected |
| Rating (GSAx/gm)0 = league average; resets each season | -0.01 (#14) | -0.30 (#32) |
What moves this game
- Regulation winCGY 40%, SEA 36%
- Goes to overtime24%tied after 60 minutes
- Decided in a shootout10%
- Win in OT or shootoutCGY 12%, SEA 12%
Conditions
- Home ice+4.7% home goalsaway goals divided by the same factor
- Back-to-back (SEA)No
- Back-to-back (CGY) Not in the modelNothe model adjusts only the away team
- Days since last game Not in the modelCGY 2 days, SEA 2 daysbeyond the away back-to-back, rest is not modelled
- Skater injuries Not in the modelNot in game modelgoalie injuries change the starter; props use lineups
Model nhl-2026-27 · data as of · Sources: NHL API (schedule, results), MoneyPuck (expected goals, GSAx), DailyFaceoff (starting goalies), RotoWire (injuries). How the models work →
Players
Anytime goal board
- Sam Reinhart38%
- Kyle Connor37%
- Jack Hughes35%
- Brady Tkachuk35%
- Jack Eichel34%
Forwards
| WPG @ FLA | 37.5% | 0.47 | 64.1% | 27.3% | 42.6% | 3.27 | 82.3% | 62.2% | 21:32 | 3:35 | |
| WPG @ FLA | 37.9% | 0.48 | 63.6% | 26.8% | 41.4% | 2.64 | 72.7% | 48.5% | 19:52 | 4:52 | |
| NJD @ VGK | 35.4% | 0.44 | 67.4% | 30.9% | 49.6% | 3.12 | 80.4% | 59.2% | 20:00 | 3:23 | |
| WPG @ FLA | 28.7% | 0.34 | 62.8% | 26.0% | 47.9% | 2.13 | 61.8% | 35.7% | 21:20 | 3:40 | |
| NJD @ VGK | 34.1% | 0.42 | 67.9% | 31.5% | 51.3% | 2.80 | 75.5% | 52.3% | 19:56 | 3:26 | |
| WPG @ FLA | 32.5% | 0.39 | 70.6% | 34.6% | 56.4% | 2.48 | 69.6% | 44.6% | 17:59 | 4:45 | |
| NJD @ VGK | 27.0% | 0.31 | 65.4% | 28.7% | 52.7% | 2.00 | 58.6% | 32.4% | 19:19 | 4:06 | |
| WPG @ FLA | 31.5% | 0.38 | 56.1% | 20.0% | 36.0% | 2.42 | 68.4% | 43.1% | 17:50 | 3:50 | |
| WPG @ FLA | 35.0% | 0.43 | 61.3% | 24.5% | 40.4% | 3.16 | 80.9% | 60.0% | 16:05 | 4:19 | |
| NJD @ VGK | 29.7% | 0.35 | 61.3% | 24.5% | 44.9% | 1.91 | 56.2% | 30.1% | 18:33 | 3:10 | |
| SEA @ CGY | 27.9% | 0.33 | 53.3% | 17.8% | 35.3% | 2.24 | 64.4% | 38.5% | 18:53 | 2:29 | |
| WPG @ FLA | 25.6% | 0.30 | 48.4% | 14.3% | 30.7% | 2.33 | 66.5% | 40.9% | 17:56 | 3:17 | |
| SEA @ CGY | 28.7% | 0.34 | 55.7% | 19.6% | 37.9% | 2.55 | 71.0% | 46.3% | 17:43 | 2:43 | |
| NJD @ VGK | 27.9% | 0.33 | 50.9% | 16.0% | 32.0% | 2.09 | 60.7% | 34.6% | 17:56 | 3:13 | |
| SEA @ CGY | 24.1% | 0.28 | 46.4% | 12.9% | 29.3% | 1.75 | 51.4% | 25.7% | 18:49 | 2:38 | |
| WPG @ FLA | 28.5% | 0.34 | 51.1% | 16.1% | 31.5% | 2.47 | 69.4% | 44.4% | 17:12 | 2:46 | |
| SEA @ CGY | 28.8% | 0.34 | 46.5% | 13.1% | 24.8% | 2.68 | 73.5% | 49.5% | 17:14 | 2:25 | |
| SEA @ CGY | 26.2% | 0.30 | 50.4% | 15.6% | 32.8% | 2.16 | 62.6% | 36.6% | 17:31 | 2:45 | |
| NJD @ VGK | 22.1% | 0.25 | 51.4% | 16.3% | 37.6% | 2.10 | 61.1% | 34.9% | 16:57 | 3:23 | |
| SEA @ CGY | 27.0% | 0.31 | 55.3% | 19.3% | 38.8% | 2.25 | 64.7% | 38.9% | 17:10 | 2:40 | |
| WPG @ FLA | 23.4% | 0.27 | 48.8% | 14.5% | 33.2% | 1.75 | 51.7% | 25.9% | 17:14 | 3:29 | |
| NJD @ VGK | 22.7% | 0.26 | 57.1% | 20.8% | 44.6% | 1.85 | 54.4% | 28.3% | 16:59 | 3:09 | |
| WPG @ FLA | 21.8% | 0.25 | 44.5% | 11.8% | 29.0% | 2.06 | 60.0% | 33.8% | 17:26 | 2:10 | |
| SEA @ CGY | 15.5% | 0.17 | 47.2% | 13.5% | 37.5% | 1.17 | 32.4% | 11.7% | 17:54 | 2:46 | |
| SEA @ CGY | 23.5% | 0.27 | 44.2% | 11.7% | 27.1% | 2.35 | 66.9% | 41.4% | 18:11 | 0:14 | |
| NJD @ VGK | 27.2% | 0.32 | 47.2% | 13.5% | 27.4% | 2.04 | 59.6% | 33.4% | 14:55 | 3:16 | |
| NJD @ VGK | 25.3% | 0.29 | 41.7% | 10.3% | 22.0% | 2.51 | 70.3% | 45.5% | 16:03 | 1:20 | |
| NJD @ VGK | 21.6% | 0.24 | 40.7% | 9.7% | 24.3% | 1.79 | 52.7% | 26.8% | 17:00 | 1:05 | |
| SEA @ CGY | 23.1% | 0.26 | 47.3% | 13.6% | 31.5% | 1.85 | 54.3% | 28.3% | 14:58 | 2:42 | |
| NJD @ VGK | 22.4% | 0.25 | 43.4% | 11.2% | 27.0% | 1.65 | 48.6% | 23.2% | 14:43 | 2:49 | |
| NJD @ VGK | 20.5% | 0.23 | 46.1% | 12.8% | 32.2% | 1.46 | 42.5% | 18.4% | 16:37 | 0:59 | |
| SEA @ CGY | 23.1% | 0.26 | 41.4% | 10.1% | 23.8% | 2.04 | 59.6% | 33.5% | 14:58 | 1:35 | |
| WPG @ FLA | 15.8% | 0.17 | 31.8% | 5.7% | 18.9% | 1.66 | 48.8% | 23.4% | 15:46 | 1:41 | |
| WPG @ FLA | 14.8% | 0.16 | 32.9% | 6.1% | 21.2% | 1.39 | 40.1% | 16.7% | 16:08 | 1:25 | |
| SEA @ CGY | 20.0% | 0.22 | 40.6% | 9.7% | 25.8% | 1.65 | 48.7% | 23.3% | 14:25 | 2:23 | |
| NJD @ VGK | 17.6% | 0.19 | 34.9% | 7.0% | 21.0% | 1.66 | 49.0% | 23.5% | 15:20 | 1:32 | |
| SEA @ CGY | 18.8% | 0.21 | 43.4% | 11.2% | 30.2% | 1.75 | 51.6% | 25.8% | 15:11 | 1:14 | |
| SEA @ CGY | 20.5% | 0.23 | 38.2% | 8.4% | 22.2% | 1.69 | 49.9% | 24.3% | 15:22 | 1:05 | |
| WPG @ FLA | 14.8% | 0.16 | 32.5% | 6.0% | 20.8% | 1.33 | 38.1% | 15.3% | 16:03 | 1:03 | |
| NJD @ VGK | 17.3% | 0.19 | 36.3% | 7.6% | 23.0% | 1.43 | 41.5% | 17.7% | 15:39 | 1:09 | |
| NJD @ VGK | 18.9% | 0.21 | 36.8% | 7.8% | 22.1% | 1.88 | 55.2% | 29.1% | 14:59 | 1:05 | |
| SEA @ CGY | 16.9% | 0.19 | 43.5% | 11.2% | 31.9% | 1.30 | 37.0% | 14.6% | 14:22 | 2:17 | |
| SEA @ CGY | 19.2% | 0.21 | 37.2% | 8.0% | 22.2% | 1.46 | 42.4% | 18.4% | 14:11 | 1:57 | |
| SEA @ CGY | 12.5% | 0.13 | 29.4% | 4.8% | 19.3% | 1.20 | 33.6% | 12.4% | 15:34 | 0:02 | |
| SEA @ CGY | 19.1% | 0.21 | 39.1% | 8.9% | 24.8% | 1.68 | 49.6% | 24.1% | 13:06 | 1:18 | |
| NJD @ VGK | 17.6% | 0.19 | 31.3% | 5.5% | 16.6% | 1.34 | 38.6% | 15.6% | 14:57 | 0:11 | |
| NJD @ VGK | 17.3% | 0.19 | 35.6% | 7.3% | 22.2% | 1.27 | 36.1% | 14.0% | 13:49 | 1:12 | |
| NJD @ VGK | 16.9% | 0.18 | 35.4% | 7.2% | 22.3% | 1.32 | 37.8% | 15.1% | 13:29 | 1:10 | |
| WPG @ FLA | 12.5% | 0.13 | 28.9% | 4.6% | 18.7% | 1.07 | 29.1% | 9.8% | 14:38 | 0:07 | |
| SEA @ CGY | 14.0% | 0.15 | 32.5% | 6.0% | 21.5% | 1.48 | 43.1% | 18.9% | 13:37 | 0:04 | |
| WPG @ FLA | 12.4% | 0.13 | 25.6% | 3.6% | 15.1% | 1.23 | 34.5% | 12.9% | 12:50 | 1:10 | |
| WPG @ FLA | 11.6% | 0.12 | 25.9% | 3.7% | 16.2% | 1.12 | 30.8% | 10.7% | 13:02 | 1:03 | |
| WPG @ FLA | 11.9% | 0.13 | 24.9% | 3.4% | 14.8% | 1.23 | 34.8% | 13.1% | 13:27 | 0:26 | |
| SEA @ CGY | 14.2% | 0.15 | 32.3% | 5.9% | 21.0% | 1.12 | 30.8% | 10.7% | 13:29 | 0:01 | |
| SEA @ CGY | 15.0% | 0.16 | 31.9% | 5.7% | 19.9% | 1.34 | 38.5% | 15.6% | 12:09 | 0:38 | |
| SEA @ CGY | 12.7% | 0.14 | 29.3% | 4.8% | 18.9% | 1.46 | 42.5% | 18.4% | 12:32 | 0:01 | |
| WPG @ FLA | 11.7% | 0.12 | 23.4% | 3.0% | 13.3% | 1.27 | 35.9% | 13.9% | 12:59 | 0:01 | |
| WPG @ FLA | 13.2% | 0.14 | 27.4% | 4.2% | 16.4% | 1.26 | 35.6% | 13.7% | 12:30 | 0:16 | |
| SEA @ CGY | 12.3% | 0.13 | 28.2% | 4.4% | 18.2% | 1.24 | 35.0% | 13.3% | 12:30 | 0:03 | |
| NJD @ VGK | 12.0% | 0.13 | 22.8% | 2.8% | 12.2% | 1.20 | 33.7% | 12.5% | 12:27 | 0:14 | |
| NJD @ VGK | 13.0% | 0.14 | 29.2% | 4.8% | 18.6% | 1.47 | 42.8% | 18.7% | 11:30 | 0:14 | |
| NJD @ VGK | 10.3% | 0.11 | 21.8% | 2.6% | 12.8% | 1.02 | 27.3% | 8.8% | 11:49 | 0:12 | |
| NJD @ VGK | 11.5% | 0.12 | 20.4% | 2.2% | 10.1% | 1.34 | 38.3% | 15.4% | 11:13 | 0:01 | |
| SEA @ CGY | 13.1% | 0.14 | 26.3% | 3.8% | 15.2% | 1.25 | 35.3% | 13.4% | 10:30 | 0:41 | |
| NJD @ VGK | 8.5% | 0.09 | 20.9% | 2.3% | 13.5% | 0.71 | 15.9% | 3.7% | 11:30 | 0:02 | |
| NJD @ VGK | 10.7% | 0.11 | 22.6% | 2.8% | 13.3% | 1.04 | 27.7% | 9.0% | 10:18 | 0:06 | |
| WPG @ FLA | 10.0% | 0.11 | 22.5% | 2.8% | 13.9% | 1.02 | 27.0% | 8.6% | 10:04 | 0:16 | |
| WPG @ FLA | 9.3% | 0.10 | 18.3% | 1.8% | 9.9% | 1.09 | 29.6% | 10.0% | 10:08 | 0:03 | |
| WPG @ FLA | 6.8% | 0.07 | 14.8% | 1.1% | 8.6% | 0.66 | 14.5% | 3.2% | 10:48 | 0:01 | |
| WPG @ FLA | 7.5% | 0.08 | 18.8% | 1.9% | 12.2% | 0.77 | 18.0% | 4.5% | 9:17 | 0:34 | |
| SEA @ CGY | 9.7% | 0.10 | 20.9% | 2.4% | 12.4% | 0.94 | 24.1% | 7.2% | 8:37 | 0:10 | |
| WPG @ FLA | 6.7% | 0.07 | 15.5% | 1.3% | 9.5% | 0.78 | 18.5% | 4.7% | 8:17 | 0:03 |
Defense
| WPG @ FLA | 13.2% | 0.14 | 52.2% | 16.9% | 44.9% | 2.06 | 60.1% | 33.9% | 24:10 | 4:11 | |
| SEA @ CGY | 18.0% | 0.20 | 44.1% | 11.6% | 31.8% | 2.57 | 71.5% | 46.9% | 24:12 | 2:18 | |
| NJD @ VGK | 12.5% | 0.13 | 45.1% | 12.2% | 37.2% | 1.99 | 58.3% | 32.1% | 23:16 | 3:15 | |
| SEA @ CGY | 13.4% | 0.14 | 47.4% | 13.6% | 39.3% | 2.22 | 64.0% | 38.0% | 22:56 | 2:55 | |
| WPG @ FLA | 9.4% | 0.10 | 37.6% | 8.2% | 31.1% | 1.95 | 57.1% | 30.9% | 23:37 | 2:54 | |
| NJD @ VGK | 10.8% | 0.11 | 40.8% | 9.8% | 33.6% | 1.71 | 50.4% | 24.8% | 21:46 | 1:22 | |
| SEA @ CGY | 11.5% | 0.12 | 39.0% | 8.8% | 31.0% | 1.61 | 47.3% | 22.2% | 22:06 | 1:11 | |
| WPG @ FLA | 7.8% | 0.08 | 35.0% | 7.0% | 29.6% | 1.34 | 38.4% | 15.5% | 21:14 | 1:56 | |
| NJD @ VGK | 11.3% | 0.12 | 35.0% | 7.0% | 26.7% | 2.08 | 60.6% | 34.4% | 19:44 | 1:17 | |
| WPG @ FLA | 6.6% | 0.07 | 29.0% | 4.7% | 23.9% | 1.48 | 43.1% | 18.9% | 21:29 | 0:28 | |
| SEA @ CGY | 5.1% | 0.05 | 25.1% | 3.4% | 21.1% | 0.97 | 25.2% | 7.7% | 22:37 | 0:06 | |
| SEA @ CGY | 5.7% | 0.06 | 26.9% | 4.0% | 22.5% | 1.03 | 27.4% | 8.9% | 21:23 | 0:34 | |
| WPG @ FLA | 5.0% | 0.05 | 23.3% | 2.9% | 19.2% | 1.27 | 35.9% | 13.8% | 21:24 | 0:12 | |
| SEA @ CGY | 12.0% | 0.13 | 37.2% | 8.0% | 28.7% | 1.64 | 48.3% | 23.0% | 17:45 | 2:47 | |
| NJD @ VGK | 10.2% | 0.11 | 30.0% | 5.0% | 22.0% | 1.61 | 47.5% | 22.3% | 19:38 | 1:03 | |
| NJD @ VGK | 7.8% | 0.08 | 27.7% | 4.2% | 21.5% | 1.45 | 42.3% | 18.3% | 20:44 | 0:15 | |
| SEA @ CGY | 5.7% | 0.06 | 24.1% | 3.2% | 19.5% | 1.30 | 37.2% | 14.7% | 20:41 | 0:03 | |
| SEA @ CGY | 4.4% | 0.04 | 21.5% | 2.5% | 17.9% | 1.01 | 26.9% | 8.6% | 20:39 | 0:01 | |
| NJD @ VGK | 5.7% | 0.06 | 21.7% | 2.6% | 17.0% | 1.14 | 31.6% | 11.2% | 20:18 | 0:01 | |
| WPG @ FLA | 5.7% | 0.06 | 20.2% | 2.2% | 15.4% | 1.17 | 32.7% | 11.8% | 20:07 | 0:08 | |
| NJD @ VGK | 5.2% | 0.05 | 21.2% | 2.4% | 16.9% | 1.09 | 29.7% | 10.1% | 20:03 | 0:07 | |
| WPG @ FLA | 3.2% | 0.03 | 19.3% | 2.0% | 16.7% | 0.83 | 20.1% | 5.4% | 19:57 | 0:06 | |
| WPG @ FLA | 4.0% | 0.04 | 17.0% | 1.5% | 13.6% | 1.08 | 29.3% | 9.9% | 19:26 | 0:03 | |
| NJD @ VGK | 3.7% | 0.04 | 18.0% | 1.7% | 14.9% | 0.68 | 15.0% | 3.4% | 19:32 | 0:08 | |
| SEA @ CGY | 5.6% | 0.06 | 23.1% | 2.9% | 18.6% | 1.03 | 27.6% | 8.9% | 18:18 | 0:01 | |
| WPG @ FLA | 5.2% | 0.05 | 20.1% | 2.2% | 15.7% | 1.13 | 31.1% | 10.9% | 17:06 | 0:50 | |
| NJD @ VGK | 4.7% | 0.05 | 15.2% | 1.2% | 11.0% | 1.14 | 31.4% | 11.1% | 17:13 | 0:02 | |
| SEA @ CGY | 4.3% | 0.04 | 19.8% | 2.1% | 16.2% | 1.08 | 29.2% | 9.8% | 17:09 | 0:01 | |
| WPG @ FLA | 3.6% | 0.04 | 16.7% | 1.5% | 13.6% | 0.85 | 21.1% | 5.8% | 15:19 | 0:42 | |
| NJD @ VGK | 2.5% | 0.03 | 13.7% | 1.0% | 11.5% | 0.57 | 11.4% | 2.2% | 16:10 | 0:00 | |
| WPG @ FLA | 3.1% | 0.03 | 15.0% | 1.2% | 12.3% | 0.67 | 14.8% | 3.3% | 15:39 | 0:01 | |
| NJD @ VGK | 3.0% | 0.03 | 16.9% | 1.5% | 14.3% | 0.68 | 15.1% | 3.4% | 15:08 | 0:27 | |
| NJD @ VGK | 4.4% | 0.05 | 17.7% | 1.7% | 13.9% | 0.94 | 24.2% | 7.2% | 14:29 | 0:12 | |
| WPG @ FLA | 2.8% | 0.03 | 15.0% | 1.2% | 12.6% | 0.84 | 20.8% | 5.6% | 14:07 | 0:00 | |
| SEA @ CGY | 3.6% | 0.04 | 17.2% | 1.6% | 14.2% | 0.84 | 20.5% | 5.5% | 13:47 | 0:01 | |
| SEA @ CGY | 3.5% | 0.04 | 15.3% | 1.2% | 12.2% | 0.93 | 24.0% | 7.1% | 13:29 | 0:01 |