NHL predictions Fri, Nov 6
Win probabilities, projected goals and totals for every NHL game, plus each skater's chance to score. Methodology →
3 games on this slate · 27–20 since Oct 30 (model V3) →
Games
Biggest factor: Home ice · BUF +0.3 goals
Biggest factor: 5-on-5 play · MIN +0.7 goals
Biggest factor: Home ice · CGY +0.3 goals
How we got this
Forwards
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Tage Thompson
|
43% | 0.57 | 66% | 3.36 | 83% | 19:20 | 3:26 |
Jack Quinn
|
34% | 0.41 | 60% | 2.57 | 71% | 18:27 | 3:33 |
Adam Fantilli
|
32% | 0.38 | 53% | 2.91 | 77% | 20:18 | 3:13 |
Zach Benson
|
28% | 0.33 | 59% | 2.19 | 63% | 19:21 | 3:10 |
Noah Ostlund
|
26% | 0.30 | 52% | 1.92 | 56% | 18:27 | 3:10 |
Charlie Coyle
|
24% | 0.28 | 52% | 1.96 | 57% | 20:00 | 3:14 |
Jason Zucker
|
23% | 0.26 | 43% | 1.64 | 48% | 13:20 | 1:55 |
Josh Doan
|
23% | 0.26 | 41% | 1.78 | 52% | 15:18 | 1:01 |
Matthew Knies
|
22% | 0.25 | 48% | 1.73 | 51% | 17:47 | 3:06 |
Kent Johnson
|
22% | 0.25 | 45% | 1.96 | 57% | 16:54 | 2:53 |
Valeri Nichushkin
|
21% | 0.24 | 43% | 1.93 | 57% | 16:38 | 1:11 |
Sean Monahan
|
17% | 0.19 | 39% | 1.53 | 45% | 16:08 | 1:19 |
Josh Norris
|
17% | 0.19 | 35% | 1.23 | 35% | 13:34 | 1:11 |
Mathieu Olivier
|
17% | 0.18 | 30% | 1.61 | 47% | 15:17 | 0:06 |
Cole Sillinger
|
15% | 0.17 | 35% | 1.70 | 50% | 15:51 | 0:14 |
Conor Garland
|
14% | 0.15 | 31% | 1.50 | 44% | 13:51 | 1:11 |
Ryan McLeod
|
13% | 0.14 | 38% | 1.02 | 27% | 15:10 | 0:54 |
Peyton Krebs
|
12% | 0.12 | 34% | 0.99 | 26% | 13:52 | 0:04 |
Dmitri Voronkov
|
11% | 0.11 | 22% | 1.07 | 29% | 9:27 | 0:48 |
Beck Malenstyn
|
9% | 0.09 | 19% | 0.80 | 19% | 11:58 | 0:01 |
Tyson Kozak
|
9% | 0.09 | 19% | 0.70 | 16% | 11:23 | 0:01 |
Sam Carrick
|
8% | 0.08 | 17% | 0.86 | 21% | 8:44 | 0:01 |
Luca Del Bel Belluz
|
6% | 0.06 | 15% | 0.66 | 14% | 8:05 | 0:09 |
Ryan Lomberg
|
6% | 0.06 | 13% | 0.88 | 22% | 7:33 | 0:00 |
Defense
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Zach Werenski
|
23% | 0.26 | 64% | 3.28 | 82% | 27:00 | 3:34 |
Rasmus Dahlin
|
19% | 0.21 | 61% | 2.50 | 70% | 24:29 | 3:26 |
Olen Zellweger
|
12% | 0.13 | 31% | 1.81 | 53% | 20:47 | 0:25 |
Owen Power
|
11% | 0.12 | 44% | 1.57 | 46% | 25:29 | 1:19 |
Denton Mateychuk
|
9% | 0.09 | 28% | 1.47 | 43% | 20:36 | 0:55 |
Damon Severson
|
9% | 0.09 | 31% | 1.16 | 32% | 21:03 | 0:33 |
Mattias Samuelsson
|
8% | 0.09 | 35% | 1.36 | 39% | 24:31 | 0:04 |
Ivan Provorov
|
8% | 0.08 | 29% | 1.67 | 49% | 22:57 | 1:05 |
Dante Fabbro
|
3% | 0.03 | 14% | 0.91 | 23% | 15:10 | 0:05 |
Louis Crevier
|
3% | 0.03 | 14% | 0.83 | 20% | 11:27 | 0:01 |
Jake Christiansen
|
3% | 0.03 | 12% | 0.78 | 18% | 12:24 | 0:00 |
Zach Metsa
|
3% | 0.03 | 14% | 0.60 | 12% | 11:24 | 0:02 |
No NHL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their share of the team's expected goals is spread across the dressed lineup.
CBJ
Isac LundestromF
BUF
Jiri KulichFKonsta HeleniusFConor TimminsDMatt GrzelcykD
Anytime Goal excludes shootout goals. Lineups are projected, so a late scratch can change them. Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Goaltending
CBJ- Rating
- -0.01
- DailyFaceoff
- Unconfirmed
BUF- Rating
- -0.10
- DailyFaceoff
- C. EllisUnconfirmed
Rating: goals saved per game against a league-average goalie, reset each season. The model uses DailyFaceoff's starter once confirmed or likely, else its own pick.
Model vs market
- Model
- 58.5%
- First line
- 61.6%
- Latest
- 60.9%
Moneyline BUF -175 / CBJ +145 (vig removed) · opened 61.6%
- Model
- 6.5
- First line
- 6.5
- Latest
- 6.5
Over -102 / Under -118
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 61.6%.
- First line
- DraftKings · 6:53 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings · as of 9:24 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
How the numbers are built
- 5-on-5 playexpected goals for minus against at 5-on-5 BUF +0.01
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals BUF +0.01
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net BUF +0.12
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it BUF +0.30
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances CBJ +0.09
- Back-to-back (CBJ)CBJ played yesterday BUF +0.22
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score CBJ +0.03
- 5-on-5 playboth teams' 5-on-5 expected goals4.10
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals +1.34
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net +0.93
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it +0.01
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances +0.11
- Back-to-backCBJ played yesterday, plus a credit offsetting the average back-to-back effects -0.01
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score -0.01
Team comparison
CBJ |
BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| Power ratinggoals/gm | -0.3323rd of 32 | -0.2622nd of 32 |
| 5-on-5 offensexGF/60 | 2.4818th of 32 | 2.5115th of 32 |
| 5-on-5 defensexGA/60 | 2.5217th of 32 | 2.5418th of 32 |
| Power playxGF/60 | 6.7525th of 32 | 7.0420th of 32 |
| Penalty killxGA/60 | 8.1421st of 32 | 8.2626th of 32 |
| Power-play minutesmin | 4.8 | 4.7 |
| Starting goalieGSAx/gm | -0.0113th of 32 | -0.1020th of 32 |
Goaltending
| CBJ | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Cam Talbot | Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen |
| StatusProjected = our pick: most starts in his team's last 10 | Projected | Projected |
| Rating (GSAx/gm)0 = league average; this season blended with his last | -0.01 (#13) | -0.10 (#20) |
Who is out
- Alex Lyon BUF Out goalie left out of the starter pick
What moves this game
- Regulation winBUF 46%, CBJ 31%
- Goes to overtime23%tied after 60 minutes
- Decided in a shootout10%
- Win in OT or shootoutBUF 12%, CBJ 11%
Conditions
- Home ice+4.7% home goalsaway goals divided by the same factor
- Back-to-back (CBJ)Yes-0.12 goals to CBJ
- Back-to-back (BUF)No
- Days since last game Not in the modelBUF 2 days, CBJ 1 daybeyond back-to-backs, rest is not modelled
- Skater injuries Not in the modelNot in game modelgoalie injuries change the starter; props use lineups
Model V3 · data as of · Sources: NHL API (schedule, results), MoneyPuck (expected goals, GSAx), DailyFaceoff (starting goalies), RotoWire (injuries), ESPN (goalie injuries). How the models work →
How we got this
Forwards
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Kirill Kaprizov
|
54% | 0.78 | 81% | 3.41 | 84% | 22:07 | 4:28 |
Matt Boldy
|
50% | 0.70 | 78% | 3.69 | 87% | 21:14 | 4:25 |
Joel Eriksson Ek
|
41% | 0.52 | 69% | 3.07 | 80% | 19:35 | 4:04 |
Macklin Celebrini
|
32% | 0.39 | 62% | 3.55 | 85% | 22:13 | 4:30 |
Blake Coleman
|
27% | 0.32 | 47% | 2.21 | 64% | 15:57 | 1:24 |
Maxim Shabanov
|
26% | 0.30 | 56% | 1.55 | 45% | 15:42 | 3:51 |
Will Smith
|
23% | 0.26 | 45% | 2.33 | 66% | 18:48 | 4:13 |
Danila Yurov
|
23% | 0.26 | 43% | 1.51 | 44% | 15:09 | 1:26 |
Ryan Hartman
|
22% | 0.25 | 42% | 1.69 | 50% | 13:54 | 1:22 |
Bobby Brink
|
20% | 0.23 | 45% | 1.51 | 44% | 14:18 | 1:37 |
Mason Marchment
|
19% | 0.22 | 39% | 1.84 | 54% | 17:08 | 3:47 |
Ivar Stenberg
|
17% | 0.18 | 38% | 1.66 | 49% | 15:53 | 4:03 |
Tyler Toffoli
|
17% | 0.18 | 32% | 2.06 | 60% | 14:25 | 2:45 |
Kiefer Sherwood
|
16% | 0.18 | 31% | 1.97 | 58% | 16:33 | 1:32 |
Michael McCarron
|
16% | 0.17 | 31% | 1.48 | 43% | 13:30 | 0:03 |
Yakov Trenin
|
15% | 0.17 | 31% | 1.22 | 34% | 13:36 | 0:03 |
Michael Misa
|
13% | 0.14 | 30% | 1.33 | 38% | 14:29 | 1:43 |
Collin Graf
|
12% | 0.13 | 25% | 1.35 | 39% | 16:06 | 0:25 |
Nico Sturm
|
11% | 0.11 | 24% | 0.84 | 21% | 10:38 | 0:03 |
Tyler Pitlick
|
9% | 0.10 | 18% | 0.90 | 23% | 7:49 | 0:03 |
Filip Bystedt
|
8% | 0.09 | 19% | 1.20 | 34% | 10:43 | 0:39 |
Ty Dellandrea
|
7% | 0.08 | 17% | 0.96 | 25% | 13:15 | 0:06 |
Zack Ostapchuk
|
6% | 0.06 | 11% | 0.81 | 20% | 10:39 | 0:04 |
Barclay Goodrow
|
5% | 0.06 | 11% | 0.83 | 20% | 11:20 | 0:02 |
Defense
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Quinn Hughes
|
24% | 0.28 | 82% | 2.80 | 76% | 29:15 | 4:40 |
Eric Pohlkamp
|
9% | 0.09 | 32% | 1.76 | 52% | 17:36 | 4:21 |
Jonas Brodin
|
7% | 0.07 | 35% | 1.30 | 37% | 22:17 | 0:12 |
Jacob Trouba
|
6% | 0.07 | 25% | 1.73 | 51% | 22:10 | 1:10 |
Darnell Nurse
|
6% | 0.06 | 19% | 1.74 | 51% | 21:15 | 0:04 |
Olli Maatta
|
6% | 0.06 | 30% | 0.89 | 22% | 19:37 | 0:01 |
Dmitry Orlov
|
5% | 0.05 | 29% | 1.05 | 28% | 17:33 | 2:58 |
Michael Kesselring
|
5% | 0.05 | 18% | 1.37 | 39% | 18:49 | 0:15 |
David Spacek
|
4% | 0.04 | 22% | 0.89 | 22% | 12:33 | 0:52 |
Zach Bogosian
|
4% | 0.04 | 19% | 0.98 | 26% | 16:47 | 0:02 |
Matt Kiersted
|
4% | 0.04 | 20% | 0.86 | 21% | 12:58 | 0:05 |
Sam Dickinson
|
4% | 0.04 | 15% | 0.96 | 25% | 18:06 | 0:07 |
No NHL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their share of the team's expected goals is spread across the dressed lineup.
SJS
Alexander WennbergFIgor ChernyshovF
MIN
Marcus FolignoFNick FolignoFBrock FaberDJared SpurgeonD
Anytime Goal excludes shootout goals. Lineups are projected, so a late scratch can change them. Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Goaltending
SJS- Rating
- -0.23
- DailyFaceoff
- Unconfirmed
MIN- Rating
- +0.25
- DailyFaceoff
- Unconfirmed
Rating: goals saved per game against a league-average goalie, reset each season. The model uses DailyFaceoff's starter once confirmed or likely, else its own pick.
Model vs market
- Model
- 80.0%
- First line
- 69.1%
- Latest
- 69.1%
Moneyline MIN -258 / SJS +210 (vig removed)
- Model
- 6.8
- First line
- 6.5
- Latest
- 6.5
Over +105 / Under -125
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 69.1%.
- First line
- DraftKings · 6:53 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings · as of 9:24 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
How the numbers are built
- 5-on-5 playexpected goals for minus against at 5-on-5 MIN +0.69
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals MIN +0.28
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net MIN +0.45
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it MIN +0.32
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances MIN +0.47
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score SJS +0.09
- 5-on-5 playboth teams' 5-on-5 expected goals4.20
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals +1.52
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net +1.15
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it +0.07
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances -0.03
- Back-to-back centringevery game: a credit offsetting the average back-to-back effects +0.00
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score -0.10
Team comparison
SJS |
MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| Power ratinggoals/gm | -0.9131st of 32 | 0.932nd of 32 |
| 5-on-5 offensexGF/60 | 2.2927th of 32 | 2.687th of 32 |
| 5-on-5 defensexGA/60 | 2.8230th of 32 | 2.3611th of 32 |
| Power playxGF/60 | 6.7624th of 32 | 8.3710th of 32 |
| Penalty killxGA/60 | 8.9930th of 32 | 7.0010th of 32 |
| Power-play minutesmin | 5.2 | 4.9 |
| Starting goalieGSAx/gm | -0.2329th of 32 | 0.251st of 32 |
Goaltending
| SJS | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Yaroslav Askarov | Jesper Wallstedt |
| StatusProjected = our pick: most starts in his team's last 10 | Projected | Projected |
| Rating (GSAx/gm)0 = league average; this season blended with his last | -0.23 (#29) | +0.25 (#1) |
Who is out
- Filip Gustavsson MIN Out goalie left out of the starter pick
- Kyle Keyser SJS Out goalie left out of the starter pick
What moves this game
- Regulation winMIN 70%, SJS 13%
- Goes to overtime16%tied after 60 minutes
- Decided in a shootout7%
- Win in OT or shootoutMIN 10%, SJS 7%
Conditions
- Home ice+4.7% home goalsaway goals divided by the same factor
- Back-to-back (SJS)No
- Back-to-back (MIN)No
- Days since last game Not in the modelMIN 3 days, SJS 2 daysbeyond back-to-backs, rest is not modelled
- Skater injuries Not in the modelNot in game modelgoalie injuries change the starter; props use lineups
Model V3 · data as of · Sources: NHL API (schedule, results), MoneyPuck (expected goals, GSAx), DailyFaceoff (starting goalies), RotoWire (injuries), ESPN (goalie injuries). How the models work →
How we got this
Forwards
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Cutter Gauthier
|
39% | 0.50 | 60% | 3.89 | 89% | 18:30 | 3:31 |
Beckett Sennecke
|
34% | 0.42 | 61% | 2.71 | 74% | 20:16 | 3:22 |
Joel Farabee
|
30% | 0.35 | 56% | 2.05 | 60% | 18:43 | 2:08 |
Leo Carlsson
|
30% | 0.35 | 61% | 2.37 | 67% | 20:02 | 3:37 |
Matt Coronato
|
29% | 0.34 | 57% | 2.20 | 64% | 17:12 | 2:18 |
Matvei Gridin
|
27% | 0.32 | 56% | 2.07 | 60% | 16:04 | 2:16 |
Mikael Granlund
|
26% | 0.30 | 57% | 2.12 | 62% | 20:54 | 3:33 |
Mikael Backlund
|
26% | 0.30 | 48% | 2.27 | 65% | 18:57 | 0:08 |
Morgan Frost
|
24% | 0.28 | 49% | 1.67 | 49% | 15:19 | 2:18 |
Yegor Sharangovich
|
23% | 0.27 | 42% | 1.61 | 47% | 16:32 | 0:51 |
Aydar Suniev
|
22% | 0.24 | 41% | 1.54 | 45% | 13:38 | 0:56 |
Ryan Strome
|
20% | 0.22 | 45% | 1.57 | 46% | 14:36 | 0:55 |
Alex Killorn
|
17% | 0.19 | 34% | 1.77 | 52% | 16:59 | 0:58 |
Judd Caulfield
|
16% | 0.18 | 35% | 1.41 | 41% | 13:28 | 1:18 |
Adam Klapka
|
16% | 0.17 | 34% | 1.26 | 36% | 11:25 | 0:36 |
Martin Pospisil
|
15% | 0.17 | 36% | 1.36 | 39% | 13:28 | 0:04 |
Tim Washe
|
14% | 0.15 | 28% | 1.24 | 35% | 15:33 | 0:09 |
Jonathan Castagna
|
14% | 0.15 | 35% | 0.96 | 25% | 12:44 | 0:00 |
Roger McQueen
|
13% | 0.14 | 26% | 1.39 | 40% | 11:19 | 0:39 |
Sam Colangelo
|
12% | 0.12 | 26% | 1.22 | 34% | 11:22 | 0:28 |
Jeff Malott
|
11% | 0.11 | 22% | 1.19 | 33% | 10:10 | 0:00 |
Nikita Nesterenko
|
10% | 0.11 | 24% | 1.20 | 34% | 10:53 | 0:16 |
William Stromgren
|
10% | 0.11 | 24% | 0.92 | 24% | 8:24 | 0:00 |
Nico Myatovic
|
10% | 0.10 | 23% | 1.12 | 31% | 10:47 | 0:00 |
Defense
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Jackson Lacombe
|
14% | 0.15 | 54% | 1.69 | 50% | 26:26 | 3:29 |
Zayne Parekh
|
12% | 0.13 | 38% | 1.45 | 42% | 18:03 | 2:20 |
Simon Nemec
|
12% | 0.13 | 39% | 1.54 | 45% | 21:35 | 0:55 |
Tristan Luneau
|
7% | 0.08 | 33% | 1.30 | 37% | 19:52 | 0:51 |
Jacob Middleton
|
6% | 0.07 | 25% | 0.99 | 26% | 19:06 | 0:01 |
Pavel Mintyukov
|
6% | 0.06 | 23% | 1.07 | 29% | 19:31 | 0:11 |
Kevin Bahl
|
5% | 0.05 | 26% | 0.85 | 21% | 21:53 | 0:04 |
Yan Kuznetsov
|
5% | 0.05 | 21% | 1.04 | 28% | 18:11 | 0:00 |
Zach Whitecloud
|
5% | 0.05 | 24% | 0.93 | 24% | 21:09 | 0:02 |
Drew Helleson
|
4% | 0.04 | 19% | 0.90 | 23% | 18:46 | 0:00 |
Travis Mitchell
|
3% | 0.03 | 15% | 0.72 | 16% | 15:31 | 0:03 |
Noah Warren
|
3% | 0.03 | 21% | 0.82 | 20% | 16:38 | 0:01 |
No NHL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their share of the team's expected goals is spread across the dressed lineup.
ANA
A.J. GreerFRyan PoehlingFTroy TerryFIan MooreD
CGY
Brennan OthmannFJonathan HuberdeauFSamuel HonzekF
Anytime Goal excludes shootout goals. Lineups are projected, so a late scratch can change them. Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Goaltending
ANA- Rating
- -0.21
- DailyFaceoff
- Unconfirmed
CGY- Rating
- -0.22
- DailyFaceoff
- Unconfirmed
Rating: goals saved per game against a league-average goalie, reset each season. The model uses DailyFaceoff's starter once confirmed or likely, else its own pick.
Model vs market
- Model
- 55.1%
- First line
- 52.6%
- Latest
- 52.6%
Moneyline CGY -122 / ANA +102 (vig removed)
- Model
- 6.6
- First line
- 6.5
- Latest
- 6.5
Over -105 / Under -115
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 2 captures, first 52.6%.
- First line
- DraftKings · 6:53 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings · as of 9:24 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
How the numbers are built
- 5-on-5 playexpected goals for minus against at 5-on-5 ANA +0.02
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals ANA +0.12
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net ANA +0.01
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it CGY +0.28
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances ANA +0.01
- Back-to-back (ANA)ANA played yesterday CGY +0.22
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score ANA +0.02
- 5-on-5 playboth teams' 5-on-5 expected goals4.28
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals +1.26
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net +0.61
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it +0.00
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances +0.42
- Back-to-backANA played yesterday, plus a credit offsetting the average back-to-back effects -0.01
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score -0.01
Team comparison
ANA |
CGY | |
|---|---|---|
| Power ratinggoals/gm | -0.4524th of 32 | -0.6029th of 32 |
| 5-on-5 offensexGF/60 | 2.4819th of 32 | 2.3822nd of 32 |
| 5-on-5 defensexGA/60 | 2.7629th of 32 | 2.6727th of 32 |
| Power playxGF/60 | 7.8312th of 32 | 6.3731st of 32 |
| Penalty killxGA/60 | 7.7418th of 32 | 7.4814th of 32 |
| Power-play minutesmin | 4.8 | 4.6 |
| Starting goalieGSAx/gm | -0.2127th of 32 | -0.2228th of 32 |
Goaltending
| ANA | CGY | |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Lukas Dostal | Dustin Wolf |
| StatusProjected = our pick: most starts in his team's last 10 | Projected | Projected |
| Rating (GSAx/gm)0 = league average; this season blended with his last | -0.21 (#27) | -0.22 (#28) |
What moves this game
- Regulation winCGY 43%, ANA 34%
- Goes to overtime23%tied after 60 minutes
- Decided in a shootout10%
- Win in OT or shootoutCGY 12%, ANA 11%
Conditions
- Home ice+4.7% home goalsaway goals divided by the same factor
- Back-to-back (ANA)Yes-0.12 goals to ANA
- Back-to-back (CGY)No
- Days since last game Not in the modelCGY 2 days, ANA 1 daybeyond back-to-backs, rest is not modelled
- Skater injuries Not in the modelNot in game modelgoalie injuries change the starter; props use lineups
Model V3 · data as of · Sources: NHL API (schedule, results), MoneyPuck (expected goals, GSAx), DailyFaceoff (starting goalies), RotoWire (injuries), ESPN (goalie injuries). How the models work →
Players
Anytime goal board
- Kirill Kaprizov54%
- Matt Boldy50%
- Tage Thompson43%
- Joel Eriksson Ek41%
- Cutter Gauthier39%
Forwards
| SJS @ MIN | 54.2% | 0.78 | 80.9% | 49.3% | 58.4% | 3.41 | 84.0% | 64.8% | 22:07 | 4:28 | |
| SJS @ MIN | 50.2% | 0.70 | 78.1% | 44.8% | 56.0% | 3.69 | 86.8% | 69.6% | 21:14 | 4:25 | |
| SJS @ MIN | 32.4% | 0.39 | 62.3% | 25.5% | 44.2% | 3.55 | 85.5% | 67.3% | 22:13 | 4:30 | |
| SJS @ MIN | 40.8% | 0.52 | 68.9% | 32.5% | 47.4% | 3.07 | 79.7% | 58.2% | 19:35 | 4:04 | |
| CBJ @ BUF | 43.4% | 0.57 | 66.3% | 29.6% | 40.4% | 3.36 | 83.4% | 63.9% | 19:20 | 3:26 | |
| ANA @ CGY | 34.1% | 0.42 | 61.1% | 24.3% | 41.0% | 2.71 | 74.0% | 50.2% | 20:16 | 3:22 | |
| ANA @ CGY | 39.2% | 0.50 | 59.5% | 22.9% | 33.4% | 3.89 | 88.5% | 72.7% | 18:30 | 3:31 | |
| CBJ @ BUF | 31.5% | 0.38 | 52.8% | 17.3% | 31.0% | 2.91 | 77.3% | 54.7% | 20:18 | 3:13 | |
| ANA @ CGY | 26.0% | 0.30 | 56.8% | 20.6% | 41.6% | 2.12 | 61.6% | 35.4% | 20:54 | 3:33 | |
| ANA @ CGY | 29.8% | 0.35 | 60.5% | 23.8% | 43.8% | 2.37 | 67.4% | 41.9% | 20:02 | 3:37 | |
| SJS @ MIN | 23.2% | 0.26 | 45.2% | 12.2% | 28.6% | 2.33 | 66.4% | 40.8% | 18:48 | 4:13 | |
| CBJ @ BUF | 33.5% | 0.41 | 60.0% | 23.4% | 39.9% | 2.57 | 71.4% | 46.8% | 18:27 | 3:33 | |
| CBJ @ BUF | 24.4% | 0.28 | 51.7% | 16.6% | 36.1% | 1.96 | 57.4% | 31.2% | 20:00 | 3:14 | |
| CBJ @ BUF | 28.2% | 0.33 | 58.5% | 22.0% | 42.2% | 2.19 | 63.2% | 37.2% | 19:21 | 3:10 | |
| CBJ @ BUF | 26.1% | 0.30 | 51.6% | 16.5% | 34.6% | 1.92 | 56.4% | 30.2% | 18:27 | 3:10 | |
| ANA @ CGY | 29.8% | 0.35 | 55.8% | 19.7% | 37.1% | 2.05 | 59.8% | 33.6% | 18:43 | 2:08 | |
| CBJ @ BUF | 22.3% | 0.25 | 48.4% | 14.2% | 33.5% | 1.73 | 50.9% | 25.2% | 17:47 | 3:06 | |
| SJS @ MIN | 19.5% | 0.22 | 39.3% | 9.0% | 24.6% | 1.84 | 54.2% | 28.2% | 17:08 | 3:47 | |
| ANA @ CGY | 29.0% | 0.34 | 57.2% | 20.9% | 39.7% | 2.20 | 63.6% | 37.7% | 17:12 | 2:18 | |
| CBJ @ BUF | 22.1% | 0.25 | 44.6% | 11.9% | 29.0% | 1.96 | 57.5% | 31.3% | 16:54 | 2:53 | |
| ANA @ CGY | 25.6% | 0.30 | 48.3% | 14.2% | 30.5% | 2.27 | 65.2% | 39.4% | 18:57 | 0:08 | |
| SJS @ MIN | 25.7% | 0.30 | 55.9% | 19.8% | 40.7% | 1.55 | 45.3% | 20.6% | 15:42 | 3:51 | |
| SJS @ MIN | 16.7% | 0.18 | 38.1% | 8.4% | 25.6% | 1.66 | 48.8% | 23.4% | 15:53 | 4:03 | |
| ANA @ CGY | 27.3% | 0.32 | 55.6% | 19.6% | 38.9% | 2.07 | 60.2% | 34.0% | 16:04 | 2:16 | |
| SJS @ MIN | 27.3% | 0.32 | 47.4% | 13.6% | 27.7% | 2.21 | 63.8% | 37.9% | 15:57 | 1:24 | |
| CBJ @ BUF | 21.0% | 0.24 | 42.7% | 10.8% | 27.5% | 1.93 | 56.7% | 30.5% | 16:38 | 1:11 | |
| SJS @ MIN | 16.2% | 0.18 | 30.8% | 5.3% | 17.4% | 1.97 | 57.7% | 31.5% | 16:33 | 1:32 | |
| ANA @ CGY | 24.2% | 0.28 | 49.4% | 14.9% | 33.2% | 1.67 | 49.1% | 23.7% | 15:19 | 2:18 | |
| ANA @ CGY | 17.5% | 0.19 | 33.7% | 6.4% | 19.6% | 1.77 | 52.1% | 26.3% | 16:59 | 0:58 | |
| SJS @ MIN | 16.6% | 0.18 | 32.4% | 5.9% | 19.0% | 2.06 | 60.0% | 33.8% | 14:25 | 2:45 | |
| ANA @ CGY | 23.4% | 0.27 | 41.6% | 10.2% | 23.7% | 1.61 | 47.3% | 22.2% | 16:32 | 0:51 | |
| CBJ @ BUF | 17.2% | 0.19 | 38.5% | 8.6% | 25.7% | 1.53 | 44.8% | 20.2% | 16:08 | 1:19 | |
| CBJ @ BUF | 22.6% | 0.26 | 41.4% | 10.1% | 24.3% | 1.78 | 52.4% | 26.5% | 15:18 | 1:01 | |
| SJS @ MIN | 23.1% | 0.26 | 43.2% | 11.1% | 26.2% | 1.51 | 44.2% | 19.7% | 15:09 | 1:26 | |
| CBJ @ BUF | 15.4% | 0.17 | 35.0% | 7.0% | 23.2% | 1.70 | 50.2% | 24.6% | 15:51 | 0:14 | |
| SJS @ MIN | 20.2% | 0.23 | 45.1% | 12.2% | 31.1% | 1.51 | 44.0% | 19.5% | 14:18 | 1:37 | |
| SJS @ MIN | 12.4% | 0.13 | 25.3% | 3.5% | 14.7% | 1.35 | 38.8% | 15.8% | 16:06 | 0:25 | |
| ANA @ CGY | 19.7% | 0.22 | 44.9% | 12.0% | 31.4% | 1.57 | 46.1% | 21.2% | 14:36 | 0:55 | |
| SJS @ MIN | 22.4% | 0.25 | 42.1% | 10.4% | 25.4% | 1.69 | 49.7% | 24.1% | 13:54 | 1:22 | |
| CBJ @ BUF | 23.0% | 0.26 | 43.2% | 11.1% | 26.2% | 1.64 | 48.1% | 22.8% | 13:20 | 1:55 | |
| SJS @ MIN | 12.7% | 0.14 | 30.5% | 5.2% | 20.3% | 1.33 | 38.3% | 15.4% | 14:29 | 1:43 | |
| CBJ @ BUF | 16.6% | 0.18 | 30.0% | 5.0% | 16.1% | 1.61 | 47.2% | 22.1% | 15:17 | 0:06 | |
| CBJ @ BUF | 13.5% | 0.14 | 38.3% | 8.5% | 28.7% | 1.02 | 27.1% | 8.7% | 15:10 | 0:54 | |
| ANA @ CGY | 13.8% | 0.15 | 28.1% | 4.4% | 16.6% | 1.24 | 34.9% | 13.2% | 15:33 | 0:09 | |
| CBJ @ BUF | 14.2% | 0.15 | 30.7% | 5.3% | 19.2% | 1.50 | 43.8% | 19.4% | 13:51 | 1:11 | |
| ANA @ CGY | 21.6% | 0.24 | 41.3% | 10.0% | 25.2% | 1.54 | 45.0% | 20.3% | 13:38 | 0:56 | |
| ANA @ CGY | 16.3% | 0.18 | 35.0% | 7.0% | 22.3% | 1.41 | 40.7% | 17.1% | 13:28 | 1:18 | |
| CBJ @ BUF | 17.1% | 0.19 | 34.9% | 6.9% | 21.4% | 1.23 | 34.6% | 13.0% | 13:34 | 1:11 | |
| SJS @ MIN | 15.6% | 0.17 | 30.7% | 5.3% | 17.9% | 1.48 | 43.0% | 18.8% | 13:30 | 0:03 | |
| ANA @ CGY | 15.5% | 0.17 | 35.6% | 7.3% | 23.8% | 1.36 | 39.2% | 16.1% | 13:28 | 0:04 | |
| SJS @ MIN | 15.4% | 0.17 | 31.0% | 5.4% | 18.4% | 1.22 | 34.4% | 12.9% | 13:36 | 0:03 | |
| CBJ @ BUF | 11.7% | 0.12 | 34.3% | 6.7% | 25.7% | 0.99 | 26.1% | 8.1% | 13:52 | 0:04 | |
| SJS @ MIN | 7.2% | 0.08 | 17.1% | 1.6% | 10.6% | 0.96 | 24.9% | 7.6% | 13:15 | 0:06 | |
| ANA @ CGY | 13.8% | 0.15 | 34.5% | 6.8% | 24.0% | 0.96 | 24.9% | 7.6% | 12:44 | 0:00 | |
| ANA @ CGY | 15.9% | 0.17 | 33.9% | 6.5% | 21.4% | 1.26 | 35.6% | 13.6% | 11:25 | 0:36 | |
| ANA @ CGY | 12.9% | 0.14 | 26.1% | 3.8% | 15.2% | 1.39 | 40.0% | 16.6% | 11:19 | 0:39 | |
| ANA @ CGY | 11.6% | 0.12 | 25.6% | 3.6% | 15.9% | 1.22 | 34.3% | 12.8% | 11:22 | 0:28 | |
| CBJ @ BUF | 8.8% | 0.09 | 19.0% | 1.9% | 11.3% | 0.80 | 19.3% | 5.0% | 11:58 | 0:01 | |
| SJS @ MIN | 8.4% | 0.09 | 19.3% | 2.0% | 11.9% | 1.20 | 33.6% | 12.4% | 10:43 | 0:39 | |
| ANA @ CGY | 10.4% | 0.11 | 24.0% | 3.2% | 15.2% | 1.20 | 33.5% | 12.4% | 10:53 | 0:16 | |
| ANA @ CGY | 9.8% | 0.10 | 23.2% | 2.9% | 14.9% | 1.12 | 30.6% | 10.6% | 10:47 | 0:00 | |
| CBJ @ BUF | 8.7% | 0.09 | 19.5% | 2.0% | 11.8% | 0.70 | 15.7% | 3.6% | 11:23 | 0:01 | |
| SJS @ MIN | 5.4% | 0.06 | 10.9% | 0.6% | 5.9% | 0.83 | 20.4% | 5.5% | 11:20 | 0:02 | |
| SJS @ MIN | 10.6% | 0.11 | 24.0% | 3.1% | 15.0% | 0.84 | 20.8% | 5.6% | 10:38 | 0:03 | |
| ANA @ CGY | 10.5% | 0.11 | 22.1% | 2.7% | 13.0% | 1.19 | 33.3% | 12.2% | 10:10 | 0:00 | |
| CBJ @ BUF | 10.7% | 0.11 | 22.4% | 2.7% | 13.1% | 1.07 | 28.9% | 9.6% | 9:27 | 0:48 | |
| SJS @ MIN | 5.6% | 0.06 | 10.9% | 0.6% | 5.7% | 0.81 | 19.7% | 5.2% | 10:39 | 0:04 | |
| CBJ @ BUF | 8.1% | 0.08 | 17.3% | 1.6% | 10.0% | 0.86 | 21.5% | 6.0% | 8:44 | 0:01 | |
| ANA @ CGY | 10.2% | 0.11 | 23.6% | 3.0% | 14.9% | 0.92 | 23.5% | 6.9% | 8:24 | 0:00 | |
| SJS @ MIN | 9.4% | 0.10 | 18.3% | 1.8% | 9.7% | 0.90 | 22.8% | 6.6% | 7:49 | 0:03 | |
| CBJ @ BUF | 6.2% | 0.06 | 15.4% | 1.3% | 9.9% | 0.66 | 14.2% | 3.1% | 8:05 | 0:09 | |
| CBJ @ BUF | 6.1% | 0.06 | 12.6% | 0.8% | 6.9% | 0.88 | 22.2% | 6.3% | 7:33 | 0:00 |
Defense
| SJS @ MIN | 24.3% | 0.28 | 82.1% | 51.3% | 76.3% | 2.80 | 75.6% | 52.3% | 29:15 | 4:40 | |
| CBJ @ BUF | 23.2% | 0.26 | 64.0% | 27.2% | 53.1% | 3.28 | 82.4% | 62.4% | 27:00 | 3:34 | |
| ANA @ CGY | 13.5% | 0.15 | 54.2% | 18.4% | 47.0% | 1.69 | 49.9% | 24.3% | 26:26 | 3:29 | |
| CBJ @ BUF | 19.0% | 0.21 | 61.3% | 24.5% | 52.2% | 2.50 | 70.0% | 45.1% | 24:29 | 3:26 | |
| CBJ @ BUF | 10.9% | 0.12 | 43.7% | 11.4% | 36.8% | 1.57 | 46.0% | 21.1% | 25:29 | 1:19 | |
| CBJ @ BUF | 8.4% | 0.09 | 35.1% | 7.0% | 29.2% | 1.36 | 39.2% | 16.0% | 24:31 | 0:04 | |
| CBJ @ BUF | 7.7% | 0.08 | 29.0% | 4.7% | 23.1% | 1.67 | 49.3% | 23.8% | 22:57 | 1:05 | |
| SJS @ MIN | 6.4% | 0.07 | 25.2% | 3.5% | 20.0% | 1.73 | 51.0% | 25.3% | 22:10 | 1:10 | |
| ANA @ CGY | 11.9% | 0.13 | 39.2% | 9.0% | 31.0% | 1.54 | 45.0% | 20.3% | 21:35 | 0:55 | |
| SJS @ MIN | 8.6% | 0.09 | 32.2% | 5.9% | 25.9% | 1.76 | 51.9% | 26.1% | 17:36 | 4:21 | |
| SJS @ MIN | 6.7% | 0.07 | 35.4% | 7.2% | 30.7% | 1.30 | 36.9% | 14.5% | 22:17 | 0:12 | |
| CBJ @ BUF | 12.1% | 0.13 | 30.6% | 5.2% | 21.0% | 1.81 | 53.2% | 27.2% | 20:47 | 0:25 | |
| CBJ @ BUF | 8.9% | 0.09 | 27.9% | 4.3% | 20.8% | 1.47 | 43.0% | 18.8% | 20:36 | 0:55 | |
| SJS @ MIN | 6.0% | 0.06 | 19.1% | 1.9% | 13.9% | 1.74 | 51.3% | 25.6% | 21:15 | 0:04 | |
| CBJ @ BUF | 8.8% | 0.09 | 31.2% | 5.5% | 24.6% | 1.16 | 32.3% | 11.6% | 21:03 | 0:33 | |
| ANA @ CGY | 5.3% | 0.05 | 25.7% | 3.6% | 21.6% | 0.85 | 21.1% | 5.8% | 21:53 | 0:04 | |
| ANA @ CGY | 12.2% | 0.13 | 37.6% | 8.2% | 28.9% | 1.45 | 42.1% | 18.1% | 18:03 | 2:20 | |
| ANA @ CGY | 7.5% | 0.08 | 32.9% | 6.1% | 27.5% | 1.30 | 37.0% | 14.5% | 19:52 | 0:51 | |
| ANA @ CGY | 4.7% | 0.05 | 24.2% | 3.2% | 20.5% | 0.93 | 23.7% | 7.0% | 21:09 | 0:02 | |
| SJS @ MIN | 4.7% | 0.05 | 29.0% | 4.7% | 25.5% | 1.05 | 28.2% | 9.3% | 17:33 | 2:58 | |
| ANA @ CGY | 6.1% | 0.06 | 23.1% | 2.9% | 18.1% | 1.07 | 28.9% | 9.7% | 19:31 | 0:11 | |
| SJS @ MIN | 5.8% | 0.06 | 30.5% | 5.2% | 26.2% | 0.89 | 22.4% | 6.4% | 19:37 | 0:01 | |
| SJS @ MIN | 4.5% | 0.05 | 17.5% | 1.6% | 13.6% | 1.37 | 39.5% | 16.3% | 18:49 | 0:15 | |
| ANA @ CGY | 6.3% | 0.07 | 25.2% | 3.5% | 20.1% | 0.99 | 25.9% | 8.1% | 19:06 | 0:01 | |
| ANA @ CGY | 4.2% | 0.04 | 19.2% | 2.0% | 15.7% | 0.90 | 22.8% | 6.6% | 18:46 | 0:00 | |
| ANA @ CGY | 5.0% | 0.05 | 21.4% | 2.5% | 17.3% | 1.04 | 28.0% | 9.2% | 18:11 | 0:00 | |
| SJS @ MIN | 3.8% | 0.04 | 15.5% | 1.3% | 12.1% | 0.96 | 24.8% | 7.5% | 18:06 | 0:07 | |
| SJS @ MIN | 4.2% | 0.04 | 18.9% | 1.9% | 15.3% | 0.98 | 25.8% | 8.0% | 16:47 | 0:02 | |
| ANA @ CGY | 3.0% | 0.03 | 21.2% | 2.4% | 18.7% | 0.82 | 20.0% | 5.3% | 16:38 | 0:01 | |
| ANA @ CGY | 3.4% | 0.03 | 15.4% | 1.2% | 12.3% | 0.72 | 16.4% | 3.8% | 15:31 | 0:03 | |
| CBJ @ BUF | 3.3% | 0.03 | 14.3% | 1.1% | 11.4% | 0.91 | 23.3% | 6.8% | 15:10 | 0:05 | |
| SJS @ MIN | 4.3% | 0.04 | 22.2% | 2.7% | 18.7% | 0.89 | 22.3% | 6.3% | 12:33 | 0:52 | |
| SJS @ MIN | 3.9% | 0.04 | 19.5% | 2.0% | 16.3% | 0.86 | 21.3% | 5.9% | 12:58 | 0:05 | |
| CBJ @ BUF | 2.7% | 0.03 | 12.2% | 0.8% | 9.8% | 0.78 | 18.4% | 4.6% | 12:24 | 0:00 | |
| CBJ @ BUF | 3.2% | 0.03 | 13.5% | 1.0% | 10.7% | 0.83 | 20.4% | 5.5% | 11:27 | 0:01 | |
| CBJ @ BUF | 2.7% | 0.03 | 13.9% | 1.0% | 11.5% | 0.60 | 12.2% | 2.4% | 11:24 | 0:02 |