NHL predictions Wed, Nov 11
Win probabilities, projected goals and totals for every NHL game, plus each skater's chance to score. Methodology →
6 games on this slate · 21–9 since Nov 6 (model V4) →
Games
Biggest factor: 5-on-5 play · TBL +0.4 goals
Biggest factor: 5-on-5 play · NYR +0.3 goals
Biggest factor: 5-on-5 play · EDM +0.3 goals
Biggest factor: Home ice · VGK +0.3 goals
Biggest factor: Home ice · ANA +0.3 goals
Biggest factor: 5-on-5 play · PIT +0.6 goals
How we got this
Forwards
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Jake Guentzel
|
42% | 0.55 | 68% | 2.88 | 77% | 21:24 | 5:09 |
Nikita Kucherov
|
42% | 0.54 | 81% | 3.11 | 80% | 21:36 | 5:14 |
Tage Thompson
|
39% | 0.50 | 61% | 3.20 | 81% | 19:03 | 3:40 |
Brandon Hagel
|
37% | 0.46 | 63% | 2.96 | 78% | 19:43 | 3:25 |
Jack Quinn
|
30% | 0.35 | 55% | 2.41 | 68% | 17:33 | 3:43 |
Zach Benson
|
26% | 0.30 | 55% | 2.18 | 63% | 19:44 | 3:26 |
Noah Ostlund
|
23% | 0.27 | 47% | 1.87 | 55% | 17:46 | 3:26 |
Anthony Cirelli
|
23% | 0.26 | 44% | 1.66 | 49% | 16:45 | 1:56 |
Jason Zucker
|
21% | 0.23 | 39% | 1.57 | 46% | 13:38 | 2:06 |
Josh Doan
|
20% | 0.23 | 37% | 1.70 | 50% | 14:47 | 1:21 |
Pontus Holmberg
|
16% | 0.18 | 33% | 1.47 | 43% | 14:02 | 0:39 |
Josh Norris
|
16% | 0.17 | 32% | 1.21 | 34% | 13:29 | 1:30 |
Ilya Mikheyev
|
15% | 0.17 | 29% | 1.40 | 40% | 14:47 | 0:01 |
Yanni Gourde
|
15% | 0.17 | 33% | 1.40 | 41% | 16:30 | 0:08 |
Gage Goncalves
|
15% | 0.16 | 34% | 1.16 | 32% | 14:32 | 1:11 |
Conor Geekie
|
13% | 0.14 | 24% | 1.18 | 33% | 11:36 | 1:05 |
Zemgus Girgensons
|
13% | 0.14 | 23% | 1.27 | 36% | 14:41 | 0:04 |
Sam O'Reilly
|
12% | 0.13 | 27% | 1.26 | 36% | 11:14 | 0:49 |
Ryan McLeod
|
12% | 0.13 | 34% | 0.97 | 25% | 14:57 | 0:54 |
Peyton Krebs
|
11% | 0.11 | 32% | 0.98 | 26% | 14:30 | 0:05 |
Jeffrey Viel
|
10% | 0.10 | 20% | 0.95 | 25% | 9:59 | 0:02 |
Beck Malenstyn
|
8% | 0.08 | 17% | 0.77 | 18% | 12:11 | 0:01 |
Sam Carrick
|
7% | 0.08 | 16% | 0.86 | 21% | 9:18 | 0:01 |
Tyson Kozak
|
7% | 0.08 | 17% | 0.63 | 13% | 11:14 | 0:01 |
Defense
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Rasmus Dahlin
|
17% | 0.19 | 56% | 2.40 | 68% | 23:46 | 3:43 |
John Carlson
|
13% | 0.14 | 47% | 1.92 | 56% | 19:36 | 3:54 |
Olen Zellweger
|
10% | 0.10 | 25% | 1.62 | 48% | 19:01 | 0:19 |
Owen Power
|
9% | 0.10 | 39% | 1.48 | 43% | 23:34 | 1:35 |
Charle-Edouard D'Astous
|
9% | 0.10 | 41% | 1.44 | 42% | 19:12 | 3:46 |
Mattias Samuelsson
|
7% | 0.07 | 31% | 1.31 | 38% | 23:24 | 0:03 |
Victor Hedman
|
7% | 0.07 | 28% | 1.17 | 33% | 17:17 | 0:38 |
J.J. Moser
|
6% | 0.06 | 21% | 1.06 | 29% | 18:42 | 0:05 |
Erik Cernak
|
4% | 0.04 | 20% | 0.97 | 25% | 17:57 | 0:04 |
Ryan McDonagh
|
4% | 0.04 | 21% | 0.76 | 18% | 17:26 | 0:02 |
Conor Timmins
|
4% | 0.04 | 19% | 0.91 | 23% | 17:11 | 0:01 |
Zach Metsa
|
3% | 0.03 | 12% | 0.58 | 12% | 11:53 | 0:02 |
No NHL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their share of the team's expected goals is spread across the dressed lineup.
TBL
Brayden PointF
BUF
Konsta HeleniusFMatt GrzelcykD
Anytime Goal excludes shootout goals. Lineups are projected, so a late scratch can change them. Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Goaltending
TBL- Rating
- League avg
- DailyFaceoff
- Unconfirmed
BUF- Rating
- -0.07
- DailyFaceoff
- Unconfirmed
Rating: goals saved per game against a league-average goalie, reset each season. The model uses DailyFaceoff's starter once confirmed or likely, else its own pick.
Model vs market
- Model
- 55.6%
- First line
- 53.2%
- Latest
- 53.2%
Moneyline BUF +105 / TBL -125 (vig removed)
- Model
- 6.5
- First line
- 6.5
- Latest
- 6.5
Over -115 / Under -105
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 4 captures, first 53.2%.
- First line
- DraftKings · 6:51 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings · as of 9:51 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
How the numbers are built
- 5-on-5 playexpected goals for minus against at 5-on-5 TBL +0.36
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals TBL +0.15
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net TBL +0.11
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it BUF +0.30
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances TBL +0.08
- Total shrinkgame total pulled toward a league-average matchup's; the margin is kept 0.00
- Lineupprojected skaters tonight and last game's dressed skaters vs each team's usual BUF +0.05
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score TBL +0.01
- 5-on-5 playboth teams' 5-on-5 expected goals4.23
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals +1.44
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net +0.87
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it -0.02
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances +0.07
- Back-to-back centringevery game: a credit offsetting the average back-to-back effects +0.00
- Total shrinkgame total pulled toward a league-average matchup's; the margin is kept -0.09
- Lineupprojected skaters tonight and last game's dressed skaters vs each team's usual +0.03
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score -0.01
Team comparison
TBL |
BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| Power ratinggoals/gm | 0.525th of 32 | -0.1620th of 32 |
| 5-on-5 offensexGF/60 | 2.785th of 32 | 2.6010th of 32 |
| 5-on-5 defensexGA/60 | 2.307th of 32 | 2.5517th of 32 |
| Power playxGF/60 | 7.5018th of 32 | 7.0621st of 32 |
| Penalty killxGA/60 | 7.5413th of 32 | 8.3525th of 32 |
| Power-play minutesmin | 5.2 | 4.8 |
| Starting goalieGSAx/gm | 0.0012th of 32 | -0.0716th of 32 |
Goaltending
| TBL | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Andrei Vasilevskiy | Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen |
| StatusProjected = our pick: most starts in his team's last 10 | Projected | Projected |
| Rating (GSAx/gm)0 = league average; this season blended with his last | +0.00 (#12) | -0.07 (#16) |
Who is out
- Alex Lyon BUF Out goalie left out of the starter pick
What moves this game
- Regulation winBUF 33%, TBL 44%
- Goes to overtime23%tied after 60 minutes
- Decided in a shootout10%
- Win in OT or shootoutBUF 11%, TBL 12%
Conditions
- Home ice+4.7% home goalsaway goals divided by the same factor
- Back-to-back (TBL)No
- Back-to-back (BUF)No
- Days since last game Not in the modelBUF 3 days, TBL 3 daysbeyond back-to-backs, rest is not modelled
- Skater lineupsProjected: BUF +1.3%, TBL -0.2% goalsDailyFaceoff projected lines, not confirmed participation
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: NHL API (schedule, results), MoneyPuck (expected goals, GSAx), DailyFaceoff (starting goalies), RotoWire (injuries), ESPN (goalie injuries), DailyFaceoff (projected lineups), NHL API (player box scores), MoneyPuck (player expected goals). How the models work →
How we got this
Forwards
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Pavel Dorofeyev
|
35% | 0.43 | 53% | 2.87 | 77% | 16:42 | 2:54 |
Mika Zibanejad
|
33% | 0.40 | 63% | 2.50 | 70% | 20:52 | 3:08 |
Alexis Lafrenière
|
31% | 0.37 | 57% | 2.31 | 66% | 18:39 | 3:07 |
J.T. Miller
|
29% | 0.35 | 62% | 2.13 | 62% | 19:46 | 2:48 |
Joel Farabee
|
28% | 0.32 | 51% | 2.20 | 63% | 19:42 | 2:18 |
Gabriel Perreault
|
26% | 0.30 | 46% | 1.90 | 56% | 16:55 | 2:01 |
Matt Coronato
|
26% | 0.30 | 51% | 2.25 | 65% | 17:55 | 2:26 |
Will Cuylle
|
24% | 0.27 | 42% | 2.03 | 59% | 16:38 | 1:33 |
Matvei Gridin
|
24% | 0.27 | 50% | 2.09 | 61% | 17:01 | 2:24 |
Tye Kartye
|
22% | 0.25 | 45% | 1.94 | 57% | 18:18 | 1:19 |
Mikael Backlund
|
22% | 0.24 | 42% | 2.26 | 65% | 19:07 | 0:06 |
Morgan Frost
|
21% | 0.23 | 44% | 1.67 | 49% | 15:41 | 2:29 |
Yegor Sharangovich
|
19% | 0.21 | 36% | 1.55 | 45% | 16:22 | 0:54 |
Oliver Bjorkstrand
|
17% | 0.19 | 36% | 1.54 | 45% | 12:23 | 1:31 |
Aydar Suniev
|
17% | 0.19 | 35% | 1.44 | 42% | 13:16 | 1:03 |
Ryan Strome
|
16% | 0.18 | 38% | 1.55 | 45% | 14:21 | 1:02 |
Adam Klapka
|
14% | 0.15 | 30% | 1.30 | 37% | 12:17 | 0:45 |
Martin Pospisil
|
13% | 0.14 | 31% | 1.37 | 39% | 13:32 | 0:05 |
Noah Laba
|
12% | 0.13 | 29% | 1.04 | 28% | 13:40 | 0:06 |
Eeli Tolvanen
|
11% | 0.12 | 24% | 1.22 | 34% | 11:08 | 0:27 |
Jonathan Castagna
|
11% | 0.12 | 28% | 0.91 | 23% | 12:36 | 0:00 |
Jaroslav Chmelar
|
9% | 0.09 | 18% | 0.86 | 21% | 8:30 | 0:07 |
Brennan Othmann
|
9% | 0.09 | 19% | 0.87 | 22% | 8:42 | 0:10 |
Luke Glendening
|
5% | 0.05 | 10% | 0.56 | 11% | 6:42 | 0:00 |
Defense
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Adam Fox
|
14% | 0.15 | 66% | 1.77 | 52% | 24:10 | 4:01 |
Zayne Parekh
|
12% | 0.12 | 36% | 1.56 | 46% | 19:31 | 2:31 |
Simon Nemec
|
10% | 0.10 | 35% | 1.51 | 44% | 21:37 | 0:59 |
Vladislav Gavrikov
|
8% | 0.08 | 30% | 1.46 | 42% | 22:27 | 0:31 |
Braden Schneider
|
5% | 0.05 | 22% | 1.38 | 40% | 19:46 | 0:08 |
Jacob Middleton
|
5% | 0.05 | 21% | 0.99 | 26% | 19:12 | 0:00 |
Scott Morrow
|
5% | 0.05 | 22% | 1.18 | 33% | 13:41 | 0:38 |
Matthew Robertson
|
4% | 0.05 | 18% | 1.05 | 28% | 15:29 | 0:02 |
Marcus Pettersson
|
4% | 0.04 | 25% | 0.89 | 22% | 21:11 | 0:10 |
Yan Kuznetsov
|
4% | 0.04 | 20% | 1.04 | 28% | 18:17 | 0:00 |
Zach Whitecloud
|
4% | 0.04 | 21% | 0.95 | 25% | 21:36 | 0:02 |
Joel Hanley
|
3% | 0.03 | 15% | 0.71 | 16% | 16:14 | 0:02 |
No NHL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their share of the team's expected goals is spread across the dressed lineup.
NYR
Adam SykoraFJoe VelenoFAlberts SmitsDSean DurziD
CGY
Jonathan HuberdeauFSamuel HonzekFKevin BahlD
Anytime Goal excludes shootout goals. Lineups are projected, so a late scratch can change them. Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Goaltending
NYR- Rating
- +0.01
- DailyFaceoff
- Unconfirmed
CGY- Rating
- -0.25
- DailyFaceoff
- D. CooleyUnconfirmed
Rating: goals saved per game against a league-average goalie, reset each season. The model uses DailyFaceoff's starter once confirmed or likely, else its own pick.
Model vs market
- Model
- 58.5%
- First line
- 56.3%
- Latest
- 56.3%
Moneyline CGY +120 / NYR -142 (vig removed)
- Model
- 6.3
- First line
- 5.5
- Latest
- 5.5
Over -122 / Under +102
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 4 captures, first 56.3%.
- First line
- DraftKings · 6:51 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings · as of 9:51 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
How the numbers are built
- 5-on-5 playexpected goals for minus against at 5-on-5 NYR +0.30
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals NYR +0.29
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net CGY +0.03
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it CGY +0.28
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances NYR +0.26
- Total shrinkgame total pulled toward a league-average matchup's; the margin is kept 0.00
- Lineupprojected skaters tonight and last game's dressed skaters vs each team's usual CGY +0.02
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score 0.00
- 5-on-5 playboth teams' 5-on-5 expected goals4.06
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals +1.25
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net +0.79
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it -0.02
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances +0.24
- Back-to-back centringevery game: a credit offsetting the average back-to-back effects +0.00
- Total shrinkgame total pulled toward a league-average matchup's; the margin is kept -0.03
- Lineupprojected skaters tonight and last game's dressed skaters vs each team's usual +0.04
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score +0.01
Team comparison
NYR |
CGY | |
|---|---|---|
| Power ratinggoals/gm | 0.1811th of 32 | -0.6629th of 32 |
| 5-on-5 offensexGF/60 | 2.5315th of 32 | 2.3823rd of 32 |
| 5-on-5 defensexGA/60 | 2.4314th of 32 | 2.6626th of 32 |
| Power playxGF/60 | 8.974th of 32 | 6.3331st of 32 |
| Penalty killxGA/60 | 6.767th of 32 | 7.4312th of 32 |
| Power-play minutesmin | 4.8 | 4.3 |
| Starting goalieGSAx/gm | 0.0110th of 32 | -0.2528th of 32 |
Goaltending
| NYR | CGY | |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Dylan Garand | Dustin Wolf |
| StatusProjected = our pick: most starts in his team's last 10 | Projected | Projected |
| Rating (GSAx/gm)0 = league average; this season blended with his last | +0.01 (#10) | -0.25 (#28) |
Who is out
- Igor Shesterkin NYR Out goalie left out of the starter pick
What moves this game
- Regulation winCGY 31%, NYR 46%
- Goes to overtime23%tied after 60 minutes
- Decided in a shootout10%
- Win in OT or shootoutCGY 11%, NYR 12%
Conditions
- Home ice+4.7% home goalsaway goals divided by the same factor
- Back-to-back (NYR)No
- Back-to-back (CGY)No
- Days since last game Not in the modelCGY 3 days, NYR 2 daysbeyond back-to-backs, rest is not modelled
- Skater lineupsProjected: CGY +1.2%, NYR +0.3% goalsDailyFaceoff projected lines, not confirmed participation
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: NHL API (schedule, results), MoneyPuck (expected goals, GSAx), DailyFaceoff (starting goalies), RotoWire (injuries), ESPN (goalie injuries), DailyFaceoff (projected lineups), NHL API (player box scores), MoneyPuck (player expected goals). How the models work →
How we got this
Forwards
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Leon Draisaitl
|
44% | 0.58 | 74% | 3.18 | 81% | 21:47 | 4:15 |
Connor McDavid
|
42% | 0.54 | 82% | 3.17 | 81% | 23:13 | 4:12 |
Zach Hyman
|
33% | 0.40 | 48% | 2.32 | 66% | 17:53 | 3:24 |
Matvei Michkov
|
24% | 0.27 | 47% | 1.88 | 55% | 15:36 | 3:05 |
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
|
23% | 0.27 | 50% | 1.77 | 52% | 16:52 | 3:50 |
Trevor Zegras
|
23% | 0.26 | 49% | 1.89 | 56% | 17:37 | 3:07 |
Travis Konecny
|
21% | 0.24 | 48% | 1.83 | 54% | 17:05 | 2:06 |
Owen Tippett
|
21% | 0.24 | 37% | 2.19 | 63% | 14:25 | 1:24 |
Tyson Foerster
|
20% | 0.22 | 33% | 1.78 | 52% | 16:00 | 1:43 |
Kasperi Kapanen
|
20% | 0.22 | 38% | 1.67 | 49% | 17:09 | 2:37 |
Vasily Podkolzin
|
19% | 0.21 | 36% | 1.71 | 50% | 15:01 | 1:18 |
Porter Martone
|
19% | 0.20 | 40% | 1.68 | 50% | 14:32 | 2:40 |
Christian Dvorak
|
18% | 0.20 | 41% | 1.53 | 45% | 17:48 | 1:20 |
Colton Dach
|
15% | 0.17 | 28% | 1.50 | 44% | 14:00 | 1:00 |
Denver Barkey
|
14% | 0.15 | 36% | 1.06 | 29% | 13:39 | 2:37 |
Michael Bunting
|
13% | 0.14 | 27% | 1.28 | 36% | 11:05 | 1:08 |
Sean Couturier
|
13% | 0.14 | 32% | 1.28 | 36% | 15:23 | 0:11 |
Noah Cates
|
12% | 0.12 | 27% | 1.08 | 29% | 14:05 | 0:12 |
Noel Acciari
|
11% | 0.11 | 20% | 1.07 | 29% | 13:22 | 0:02 |
Jason Dickinson
|
10% | 0.10 | 20% | 0.95 | 25% | 13:08 | 0:10 |
Mathieu Joseph
|
10% | 0.10 | 23% | 0.91 | 23% | 12:22 | 0:04 |
Alex Formenton
|
9% | 0.10 | 21% | 1.05 | 28% | 11:59 | 0:03 |
Owen Michaels
|
8% | 0.08 | 19% | 0.81 | 20% | 10:45 | 0:16 |
Trent Frederic
|
8% | 0.08 | 15% | 0.88 | 22% | 8:32 | 0:45 |
Defense
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Evan Bouchard
|
20% | 0.23 | 64% | 2.63 | 73% | 23:58 | 4:22 |
Travis Sanheim
|
10% | 0.10 | 31% | 1.38 | 40% | 23:42 | 0:32 |
Mattias Ekholm
|
8% | 0.08 | 32% | 1.43 | 42% | 20:25 | 0:31 |
Jamie Drysdale
|
8% | 0.08 | 32% | 1.29 | 37% | 22:28 | 2:53 |
Cam York
|
6% | 0.06 | 21% | 0.99 | 26% | 20:52 | 0:20 |
Oliver Bonk
|
6% | 0.06 | 30% | 1.09 | 30% | 17:56 | 1:11 |
Ryan Shea
|
6% | 0.06 | 27% | 0.91 | 23% | 21:45 | 0:57 |
Nick Seeler
|
4% | 0.04 | 17% | 0.96 | 25% | 16:45 | 0:01 |
Connor Murphy
|
4% | 0.04 | 16% | 1.02 | 27% | 19:56 | 0:04 |
Shakir Mukhamadullin
|
3% | 0.03 | 12% | 0.75 | 18% | 15:08 | 0:05 |
Simon Benoit
|
2% | 0.02 | 9% | 0.68 | 15% | 14:39 | 0:00 |
Ty Emberson
|
2% | 0.02 | 12% | 0.66 | 14% | 13:04 | 0:01 |
No NHL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their share of the team's expected goals is spread across the dressed lineup.
PHI
Nikita GrebenkinFRasmus RistolainenD
EDM
Isaac HowardFMatthew SavoieFMattias JanmarkFAlec RegulaD
Anytime Goal excludes shootout goals. Lineups are projected, so a late scratch can change them. Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Goaltending
PHI- Rating
- -0.06
- DailyFaceoff
- Unconfirmed
EDM- Rating
- -0.19
- DailyFaceoff
- D. LeviUnconfirmed
Rating: goals saved per game against a league-average goalie, reset each season. The model uses DailyFaceoff's starter once confirmed or likely, else its own pick.
Model vs market
- Model
- 62.1%
- First line
- 65.7%
- Latest
- 65.7%
Moneyline EDM -218 / PHI +180 (vig removed)
- Model
- 6.4
- First line
- 6.5
- Latest
- 6.5
Over +110 / Under -130
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 4 captures, first 65.7%.
- First line
- DraftKings · 6:51 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings · as of 9:51 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
How the numbers are built
- 5-on-5 playexpected goals for minus against at 5-on-5 EDM +0.33
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals EDM +0.03
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net EDM +0.17
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it EDM +0.27
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances PHI +0.13
- Total shrinkgame total pulled toward a league-average matchup's; the margin is kept 0.00
- Lineupprojected skaters tonight and last game's dressed skaters vs each team's usual EDM +0.13
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score PHI +0.04
- 5-on-5 playboth teams' 5-on-5 expected goals3.56
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals +1.45
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net +0.79
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it +0.03
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances +0.26
- Back-to-back centringevery game: a credit offsetting the average back-to-back effects +0.00
- Total shrinkgame total pulled toward a league-average matchup's; the margin is kept +0.12
- Lineupprojected skaters tonight and last game's dressed skaters vs each team's usual +0.23
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score -0.01
Team comparison
PHI |
EDM | |
|---|---|---|
| Power ratinggoals/gm | -0.4926th of 32 | -0.0415th of 32 |
| 5-on-5 offensexGF/60 | 2.1630th of 32 | 2.2927th of 32 |
| 5-on-5 defensexGA/60 | 2.6223rd of 32 | 2.328th of 32 |
| Power playxGF/60 | 7.5017th of 32 | 8.618th of 32 |
| Penalty killxGA/60 | 6.788th of 32 | 8.1020th of 32 |
| Power-play minutesmin | 4.7 | 5.2 |
| Starting goalieGSAx/gm | -0.0615th of 32 | -0.1924th of 32 |
Goaltending
| PHI | EDM | |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Dan Vladar | Tristan Jarry |
| StatusProjected = our pick: most starts in his team's last 10 | Projected | Projected |
| Rating (GSAx/gm)0 = league average; this season blended with his last | -0.06 (#15) | -0.19 (#24) |
Who is out
- Frederik Andersen EDM Out goalie left out of the starter pick
What moves this game
- Regulation winEDM 50%, PHI 27%
- Goes to overtime23%tied after 60 minutes
- Decided in a shootout9%
- Win in OT or shootoutEDM 12%, PHI 11%
Conditions
- Home ice+4.7% home goalsaway goals divided by the same factor
- Back-to-back (PHI)No
- Back-to-back (EDM)No
- Days since last game Not in the modelEDM 2 days, PHI 2 daysbeyond back-to-backs, rest is not modelled
- Skater lineupsProjected: EDM +5.3%, PHI +1.9% goalsDailyFaceoff projected lines, not confirmed participation
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: NHL API (schedule, results), MoneyPuck (expected goals, GSAx), DailyFaceoff (starting goalies), RotoWire (injuries), ESPN (goalie injuries), DailyFaceoff (projected lineups), NHL API (player box scores), MoneyPuck (player expected goals). How the models work →
How we got this
Forwards
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Jack Eichel
|
35% | 0.43 | 70% | 2.78 | 75% | 20:07 | 3:12 |
Dylan Guenther
|
34% | 0.42 | 57% | 2.56 | 71% | 17:10 | 3:42 |
Mark Stone
|
31% | 0.37 | 63% | 1.88 | 55% | 18:38 | 2:59 |
Logan Cooley
|
30% | 0.36 | 58% | 1.81 | 53% | 18:43 | 3:42 |
Mitch Marner
|
29% | 0.34 | 68% | 2.02 | 59% | 20:14 | 3:28 |
Tomas Hertl
|
29% | 0.34 | 49% | 2.06 | 60% | 14:56 | 3:14 |
Clayton Keller
|
28% | 0.33 | 67% | 2.42 | 68% | 19:15 | 3:41 |
Nick Schmaltz
|
27% | 0.31 | 55% | 2.07 | 60% | 17:34 | 3:36 |
William Karlsson
|
23% | 0.26 | 43% | 1.80 | 53% | 17:11 | 1:13 |
Trevor Connelly
|
23% | 0.26 | 42% | 1.67 | 49% | 14:14 | 2:12 |
Anders Lee
|
22% | 0.25 | 38% | 1.81 | 53% | 14:14 | 0:53 |
Victor Olofsson
|
20% | 0.23 | 38% | 1.80 | 53% | 13:08 | 2:37 |
Vincent Trocheck
|
20% | 0.22 | 45% | 1.50 | 44% | 18:23 | 1:07 |
Ivan Barbashev
|
19% | 0.22 | 46% | 1.36 | 39% | 15:02 | 0:59 |
Brett Howden
|
18% | 0.20 | 32% | 1.29 | 37% | 15:03 | 0:19 |
Barrett Hayton
|
17% | 0.18 | 35% | 1.57 | 46% | 14:50 | 0:57 |
Lawson Crouse
|
16% | 0.18 | 30% | 1.43 | 41% | 15:26 | 0:08 |
Braeden Bowman
|
16% | 0.18 | 34% | 1.19 | 33% | 12:49 | 1:19 |
Michael Carcone
|
16% | 0.17 | 30% | 1.61 | 47% | 11:55 | 1:14 |
Jack McBain
|
11% | 0.12 | 25% | 1.03 | 27% | 12:47 | 0:03 |
Marc Gatcomb
|
10% | 0.10 | 18% | 1.11 | 30% | 9:50 | 0:01 |
Liam O'Brien
|
8% | 0.09 | 16% | 0.87 | 22% | 8:52 | 0:00 |
Kevin Stenlund
|
8% | 0.09 | 21% | 0.85 | 21% | 13:07 | 0:02 |
Nic Dowd
|
8% | 0.09 | 21% | 0.64 | 14% | 11:28 | 0:01 |
Defense
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Mikhail Sergachev
|
13% | 0.14 | 54% | 1.91 | 56% | 25:15 | 3:32 |
Shea Theodore
|
11% | 0.12 | 43% | 1.69 | 50% | 22:30 | 1:32 |
Rasmus Andersson
|
11% | 0.12 | 33% | 1.69 | 50% | 20:13 | 1:19 |
MacKenzie Weegar
|
9% | 0.09 | 30% | 1.67 | 49% | 22:21 | 0:47 |
Noah Hanifin
|
8% | 0.08 | 28% | 1.43 | 41% | 20:06 | 0:09 |
Brayden McNabb
|
6% | 0.06 | 23% | 1.12 | 31% | 20:42 | 0:02 |
Dmitri Simashev
|
5% | 0.05 | 16% | 0.95 | 25% | 16:35 | 0:01 |
Jeremy Lauzon
|
5% | 0.05 | 16% | 1.07 | 29% | 17:23 | 0:01 |
Dylan Coghlan
|
4% | 0.04 | 16% | 1.15 | 32% | 13:22 | 0:01 |
Andrew Peeke
|
4% | 0.04 | 19% | 0.98 | 26% | 19:29 | 0:01 |
Nick DeSimone
|
4% | 0.04 | 16% | 0.77 | 18% | 13:42 | 0:01 |
No NHL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their share of the team's expected goals is spread across the dressed lineup.
UTA
Kailer YamamotoFJohn MarinoDNate SchmidtD
VGK
Parker WotherspoonD
Anytime Goal excludes shootout goals. Lineups are projected, so a late scratch can change them. Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Goaltending
UTA- Rating
- -0.29
- DailyFaceoff
- S. CossaUnconfirmed
VGK- Rating
- -0.13
- DailyFaceoff
- C. HartUnconfirmed
Rating: goals saved per game against a league-average goalie, reset each season. The model uses DailyFaceoff's starter once confirmed or likely, else its own pick.
Model vs market
- Model
- 57.1%
- First line
- 53.2%
- Latest
- 53.2%
Moneyline VGK -125 / UTA +105 (vig removed)
- Model
- 6.5
- First line
- 6.5
- Latest
- 6.5
Over -105 / Under -115
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 4 captures, first 53.2%.
- First line
- DraftKings · 6:51 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings · as of 9:51 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
How the numbers are built
- 5-on-5 playexpected goals for minus against at 5-on-5 UTA +0.17
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals VGK +0.16
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net VGK +0.01
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it VGK +0.29
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances VGK +0.16
- Total shrinkgame total pulled toward a league-average matchup's; the margin is kept 0.00
- Lineupprojected skaters tonight and last game's dressed skaters vs each team's usual VGK +0.03
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score UTA +0.03
- 5-on-5 playboth teams' 5-on-5 expected goals3.94
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals +1.50
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net +0.79
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it +0.01
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances +0.42
- Back-to-back centringevery game: a credit offsetting the average back-to-back effects +0.00
- Total shrinkgame total pulled toward a league-average matchup's; the margin is kept -0.18
- Lineupprojected skaters tonight and last game's dressed skaters vs each team's usual -0.01
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score -0.01
Team comparison
UTA |
VGK | |
|---|---|---|
| Power ratinggoals/gm | 0.1810th of 32 | 0.297th of 32 |
| 5-on-5 offensexGF/60 | 2.794th of 32 | 2.5713th of 32 |
| 5-on-5 defensexGA/60 | 2.274th of 32 | 2.286th of 32 |
| Power playxGF/60 | 8.973rd of 32 | 8.656th of 32 |
| Penalty killxGA/60 | 8.6329th of 32 | 6.595th of 32 |
| Power-play minutesmin | 4.6 | 4.6 |
| Starting goalieGSAx/gm | -0.2931st of 32 | -0.1320th of 32 |
Goaltending
| UTA | VGK | |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Karel Vejmelka | Adin Hill |
| StatusProjected = our pick: most starts in his team's last 10 | Projected | Projected |
| Rating (GSAx/gm)0 = league average; this season blended with his last | -0.29 (#31) | -0.13 (#20) |
What moves this game
- Regulation winVGK 45%, UTA 32%
- Goes to overtime23%tied after 60 minutes
- Decided in a shootout10%
- Win in OT or shootoutVGK 12%, UTA 11%
Conditions
- Home ice+4.7% home goalsaway goals divided by the same factor
- Back-to-back (UTA)No
- Back-to-back (VGK)No
- Days since last game Not in the modelVGK 3 days, UTA 4 daysbeyond back-to-backs, rest is not modelled
- Skater lineupsProjected: VGK +0.4%, UTA -0.6% goalsDailyFaceoff projected lines, not confirmed participation
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: NHL API (schedule, results), MoneyPuck (expected goals, GSAx), DailyFaceoff (starting goalies), RotoWire (injuries), ESPN (goalie injuries), DailyFaceoff (projected lineups), NHL API (player box scores), MoneyPuck (player expected goals). How the models work →
How we got this
Forwards
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Cutter Gauthier
|
43% | 0.56 | 63% | 4.06 | 90% | 18:27 | 4:35 |
Filip Forsberg
|
38% | 0.49 | 67% | 2.98 | 78% | 20:02 | 3:44 |
Beckett Sennecke
|
35% | 0.44 | 64% | 2.73 | 74% | 19:25 | 4:15 |
Steven Stamkos
|
34% | 0.42 | 57% | 2.50 | 70% | 18:37 | 3:50 |
Leo Carlsson
|
32% | 0.38 | 64% | 2.43 | 69% | 20:39 | 4:39 |
Ryan O'Reilly
|
29% | 0.34 | 61% | 1.94 | 57% | 21:04 | 3:35 |
Mikael Granlund
|
28% | 0.32 | 61% | 2.16 | 63% | 20:57 | 4:30 |
Troy Terry
|
28% | 0.32 | 56% | 2.48 | 70% | 18:16 | 3:23 |
Mavrik Bourque
|
20% | 0.23 | 42% | 1.90 | 56% | 16:49 | 2:10 |
Adam Edstrom
|
19% | 0.21 | 31% | 1.51 | 44% | 15:36 | 0:00 |
Ross Colton
|
18% | 0.20 | 35% | 1.77 | 52% | 13:10 | 0:26 |
Judd Caulfield
|
18% | 0.20 | 37% | 1.48 | 43% | 14:10 | 1:33 |
Alex Killorn
|
18% | 0.20 | 34% | 1.74 | 51% | 17:05 | 1:10 |
Shane Wright
|
17% | 0.19 | 35% | 1.29 | 37% | 14:18 | 1:44 |
Jack Drury
|
15% | 0.16 | 32% | 1.32 | 38% | 17:15 | 0:01 |
Alex Kerfoot
|
14% | 0.15 | 35% | 1.09 | 30% | 15:36 | 1:20 |
Roger McQueen
|
14% | 0.15 | 28% | 1.40 | 40% | 11:44 | 1:07 |
Tim Washe
|
12% | 0.13 | 25% | 1.15 | 32% | 14:05 | 0:09 |
Nils Hoglander
|
11% | 0.11 | 23% | 1.04 | 28% | 10:37 | 0:30 |
Jeff Malott
|
10% | 0.11 | 21% | 1.20 | 33% | 9:51 | 0:02 |
Vitali Pinchuk
|
10% | 0.11 | 24% | 1.06 | 29% | 8:47 | 1:02 |
Nikita Nesterenko
|
10% | 0.11 | 24% | 1.13 | 31% | 10:30 | 0:35 |
Reid Schaefer
|
9% | 0.09 | 19% | 0.93 | 24% | 10:20 | 0:00 |
Nico Myatovic
|
9% | 0.09 | 21% | 0.96 | 25% | 9:41 | 0:05 |
Defense
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Roman Josi
|
20% | 0.22 | 63% | 2.62 | 72% | 25:54 | 3:49 |
Jackson Lacombe
|
15% | 0.16 | 59% | 1.73 | 51% | 27:48 | 4:36 |
Tristan Luneau
|
7% | 0.08 | 32% | 1.30 | 37% | 17:57 | 1:00 |
Brady Skjei
|
7% | 0.07 | 30% | 1.26 | 36% | 21:15 | 1:02 |
Pavel Mintyukov
|
7% | 0.07 | 24% | 1.09 | 30% | 19:19 | 0:13 |
Adam Wilsby
|
6% | 0.06 | 29% | 1.25 | 35% | 19:57 | 0:05 |
Nick Perbix
|
5% | 0.05 | 20% | 0.93 | 24% | 19:06 | 0:08 |
Drew Helleson
|
4% | 0.05 | 21% | 0.93 | 24% | 19:52 | 0:05 |
Daemon Hunt
|
3% | 0.03 | 16% | 0.78 | 19% | 13:18 | 0:01 |
Jayden Struble
|
3% | 0.03 | 16% | 0.54 | 10% | 15:17 | 0:00 |
Travis Mitchell
|
3% | 0.03 | 12% | 0.59 | 12% | 12:18 | 0:04 |
Noah Warren
|
3% | 0.03 | 19% | 0.79 | 19% | 14:55 | 0:02 |
No NHL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their share of the team's expected goals is spread across the dressed lineup.
NSH
Jonathan MarchessaultFWilliam TrudeauD
ANA
A.J. GreerFRyan PoehlingFIan MooreD
Anytime Goal excludes shootout goals. Lineups are projected, so a late scratch can change them. Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Goaltending
NSH- Rating
- -0.03
- DailyFaceoff
- Unconfirmed
ANA- Rating
- -0.10
- DailyFaceoff
- Unconfirmed
Rating: goals saved per game against a league-average goalie, reset each season. The model uses DailyFaceoff's starter once confirmed or likely, else its own pick.
Model vs market
- Model
- 57.9%
- First line
- 56.3%
- Latest
- 56.3%
Moneyline ANA -142 / NSH +120 (vig removed)
- Model
- 6.8
- First line
- 6.5
- Latest
- 6.5
Over -122 / Under +102
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 4 captures, first 56.3%.
- First line
- DraftKings · 6:51 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings · as of 9:51 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
How the numbers are built
- 5-on-5 playexpected goals for minus against at 5-on-5 NSH +0.10
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals NSH +0.09
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net 0.00
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it ANA +0.30
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances NSH +0.07
- Back-to-back (NSH)NSH played yesterday ANA +0.22
- Total shrinkgame total pulled toward a league-average matchup's; the margin is kept 0.00
- Lineupprojected skaters tonight and last game's dressed skaters vs each team's usual ANA +0.28
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score NSH +0.03
- 5-on-5 playboth teams' 5-on-5 expected goals4.32
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals +1.37
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net +0.87
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it 0.00
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances +0.12
- Back-to-backNSH played yesterday, plus a credit offsetting the average back-to-back effects -0.01
- Total shrinkgame total pulled toward a league-average matchup's; the margin is kept -0.13
- Lineupprojected skaters tonight and last game's dressed skaters vs each team's usual +0.25
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score -0.03
Team comparison
NSH |
ANA | |
|---|---|---|
| Power ratinggoals/gm | -0.0416th of 32 | -0.3123rd of 32 |
| 5-on-5 offensexGF/60 | 2.4720th of 32 | 2.4819th of 32 |
| 5-on-5 defensexGA/60 | 2.6324th of 32 | 2.7629th of 32 |
| Power playxGF/60 | 7.7015th of 32 | 7.7814th of 32 |
| Penalty killxGA/60 | 6.574th of 32 | 7.5614th of 32 |
| Power-play minutesmin | 5.1 | 5.0 |
| Starting goalieGSAx/gm | -0.0314th of 32 | -0.1018th of 32 |
Goaltending
| NSH | ANA | |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Juuse Saros | Laurent Brossoit |
| StatusProjected = our pick: most starts in his team's last 10 | Projected | Projected |
| Rating (GSAx/gm)0 = league average; this season blended with his last | -0.03 (#14) | -0.10 (#18) |
What moves this game
- Regulation winANA 46%, NSH 31%
- Goes to overtime23%tied after 60 minutes
- Decided in a shootout9%
- Win in OT or shootoutANA 12%, NSH 11%
Conditions
- Home ice+4.7% home goalsaway goals divided by the same factor
- Back-to-back (NSH)Yes-0.12 goals to NSH
- Back-to-back (ANA)No
- Days since last game Not in the modelANA 3 days, NSH 1 daybeyond back-to-backs, rest is not modelled
- Skater lineupsProjected: ANA +7.7%, NSH -0.5% goalsDailyFaceoff projected lines, not confirmed participation
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: NHL API (schedule, results), MoneyPuck (expected goals, GSAx), DailyFaceoff (starting goalies), RotoWire (injuries), ESPN (goalie injuries), DailyFaceoff (projected lineups), NHL API (player box scores), MoneyPuck (player expected goals). How the models work →
How we got this
Forwards
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Macklin Celebrini
|
45% | 0.61 | 78% | 3.89 | 89% | 23:11 | 4:59 |
Rickard Rakell
|
39% | 0.49 | 61% | 2.64 | 73% | 19:54 | 3:33 |
Sidney Crosby
|
36% | 0.45 | 69% | 2.41 | 68% | 19:44 | 3:41 |
Will Smith
|
34% | 0.42 | 61% | 2.51 | 70% | 20:02 | 4:43 |
Evgeni Malkin
|
29% | 0.34 | 61% | 2.26 | 65% | 17:47 | 2:27 |
Ben Kindel
|
28% | 0.32 | 49% | 2.15 | 62% | 17:14 | 2:51 |
Tommy Novak
|
27% | 0.31 | 52% | 1.94 | 57% | 15:27 | 2:35 |
Mason Marchment
|
27% | 0.31 | 52% | 1.88 | 55% | 16:49 | 4:02 |
Egor Chinakhov
|
24% | 0.28 | 44% | 1.93 | 57% | 14:32 | 1:31 |
Ivar Stenberg
|
24% | 0.28 | 49% | 1.63 | 48% | 15:33 | 3:58 |
Tyler Toffoli
|
23% | 0.26 | 43% | 2.08 | 61% | 13:16 | 3:13 |
Kiefer Sherwood
|
22% | 0.24 | 40% | 1.96 | 58% | 15:55 | 1:28 |
Michael Misa
|
21% | 0.23 | 45% | 1.50 | 44% | 15:35 | 2:16 |
Alexander Wennberg
|
19% | 0.21 | 47% | 1.33 | 38% | 19:56 | 3:58 |
Nicholas Robertson
|
19% | 0.21 | 32% | 1.72 | 51% | 13:20 | 0:05 |
Justin Brazeau
|
17% | 0.18 | 33% | 1.44 | 42% | 11:49 | 0:43 |
Collin Graf
|
16% | 0.17 | 32% | 1.25 | 35% | 14:46 | 0:28 |
Andrei Kuzmenko
|
15% | 0.17 | 34% | 1.13 | 31% | 12:23 | 1:37 |
Connor Dewar
|
15% | 0.16 | 30% | 1.41 | 41% | 14:01 | 0:02 |
Hendrix Lapierre
|
13% | 0.14 | 34% | 1.04 | 28% | 11:33 | 0:50 |
Blake Lizotte
|
12% | 0.13 | 29% | 1.09 | 30% | 13:43 | 0:01 |
Ty Dellandrea
|
9% | 0.10 | 22% | 0.93 | 24% | 11:52 | 0:04 |
Zack Ostapchuk
|
8% | 0.08 | 15% | 0.85 | 21% | 9:45 | 0:05 |
Barclay Goodrow
|
7% | 0.07 | 14% | 0.76 | 18% | 10:18 | 0:02 |
Defense
| Scoring | Shots | Usage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||
Erik Karlsson
|
17% | 0.19 | 61% | 2.29 | 66% | 23:43 | 3:45 |
Kris Letang
|
9% | 0.10 | 40% | 1.65 | 49% | 20:31 | 1:36 |
Jacob Trouba
|
9% | 0.09 | 33% | 1.67 | 49% | 21:14 | 1:11 |
Darnell Nurse
|
8% | 0.09 | 26% | 1.74 | 51% | 21:04 | 0:02 |
Declan Carlile
|
7% | 0.07 | 20% | 1.19 | 33% | 17:48 | 0:04 |
Eric Pohlkamp
|
6% | 0.07 | 32% | 1.12 | 31% | 15:18 | 2:13 |
Michael Kesselring
|
6% | 0.06 | 23% | 1.36 | 39% | 18:00 | 0:10 |
Samuel Girard
|
6% | 0.06 | 30% | 1.07 | 29% | 18:50 | 0:06 |
Dmitry Orlov
|
6% | 0.06 | 35% | 0.98 | 26% | 16:06 | 2:26 |
Sam Dickinson
|
6% | 0.06 | 21% | 0.96 | 25% | 18:19 | 0:07 |
Kaedan Korczak
|
5% | 0.05 | 28% | 0.94 | 24% | 17:45 | 0:01 |
Spencer Stastney
|
4% | 0.04 | 20% | 1.08 | 29% | 16:55 | 0:00 |
No NHL props for this team at this position.
Ruled out
Their share of the team's expected goals is spread across the dressed lineup.
PIT
Bryan RustFVille KoivunenFRyan GravesDTrevor van RiemsdykD
SJS
Igor ChernyshovF
Anytime Goal excludes shootout goals. Lineups are projected, so a late scratch can change them. Each number is the model's average projection for that player, not a betting line.
Goaltending
PIT- Rating
- -0.22
- DailyFaceoff
- Unconfirmed
SJS- Rating
- -0.22
- DailyFaceoff
- Unconfirmed
Rating: goals saved per game against a league-average goalie, reset each season. The model uses DailyFaceoff's starter once confirmed or likely, else its own pick.
Model vs market
- Model
- 51.2%
- First line
- 54.3%
- Latest
- 54.3%
Moneyline SJS +110 / PIT -130 (vig removed)
- Model
- 7.0
- First line
- 6.5
- Latest
- 6.5
Over -135 / Under +114
Movement
Market is the no-vig moneyline at each of 4 captures, first 54.3%.
- First line
- DraftKings · 6:51 PM ET
- Latest
- DraftKings · as of 9:51 PM ET
Against closing lines in past seasons, these models showed no edge. Record against the line →
How the numbers are built
- 5-on-5 playexpected goals for minus against at 5-on-5 PIT +0.55
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals PIT +0.09
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net SJS +0.04
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it SJS +0.32
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances 0.00
- Total shrinkgame total pulled toward a league-average matchup's; the margin is kept 0.00
- Lineupprojected skaters tonight and last game's dressed skaters vs each team's usual SJS +0.23
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score PIT +0.01
- 5-on-5 playboth teams' 5-on-5 expected goals4.44
- Power play and killpower-play chances and PP time, shorthanded goals +1.35
- Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, empty net +1.02
- Home icehome goals x1.047, away divided by it -0.02
- Goaltendingstarters' GSAx ratings vs the opponent's chances +0.43
- Back-to-back centringevery game: a credit offsetting the average back-to-back effects +0.00
- Total shrinkgame total pulled toward a league-average matchup's; the margin is kept -0.39
- Lineupprojected skaters tonight and last game's dressed skaters vs each team's usual +0.22
- Overtime and shootoutscore grid: regulation, tie calibration, OT/shootout winner; reconciles to the published score -0.04
Team comparison
PIT |
SJS | |
|---|---|---|
| Power ratinggoals/gm | -0.2822nd of 32 | -0.8930th of 32 |
| 5-on-5 offensexGF/60 | 2.776th of 32 | 2.3126th of 32 |
| 5-on-5 defensexGA/60 | 2.6021st of 32 | 2.7830th of 32 |
| Power playxGF/60 | 6.4030th of 32 | 6.4629th of 32 |
| Penalty killxGA/60 | 7.7117th of 32 | 9.3331st of 32 |
| Power-play minutesmin | 4.9 | 5.0 |
| Starting goalieGSAx/gm | -0.2227th of 32 | -0.2226th of 32 |
Goaltending
| PIT | SJS | |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Arturs Silovs | Yaroslav Askarov |
| StatusProjected = our pick: most starts in his team's last 10 | Projected | Projected |
| Rating (GSAx/gm)0 = league average; this season blended with his last | -0.22 (#27) | -0.22 (#26) |
Who is out
- Kyle Keyser SJS Out goalie left out of the starter pick
What moves this game
- Regulation winSJS 38%, PIT 40%
- Goes to overtime22%tied after 60 minutes
- Decided in a shootout9%
- Win in OT or shootoutSJS 11%, PIT 11%
Conditions
- Home ice+4.7% home goalsaway goals divided by the same factor
- Back-to-back (PIT)No
- Back-to-back (SJS)No
- Days since last game Not in the modelSJS 2 days, PIT 3 daysbeyond back-to-backs, rest is not modelled
- Skater lineupsProjected: SJS +6.8%, PIT -0.1% goalsDailyFaceoff projected lines, not confirmed participation; PIT: tonight's lineup not used (lineup older than 48 hours)
Model V4 · data as of · Sources: NHL API (schedule, results), MoneyPuck (expected goals, GSAx), DailyFaceoff (starting goalies), RotoWire (injuries), ESPN (goalie injuries), DailyFaceoff (projected lineups), NHL API (player box scores), MoneyPuck (player expected goals). How the models work →
Players
Anytime goal board
- Macklin Celebrini45%
- Leon Draisaitl44%
- Cutter Gauthier43%
- Jake Guentzel42%
- Nikita Kucherov42%
Forwards
| PIT @ SJS | 45.5% | 0.61 | 78.0% | 44.8% | 59.7% | 3.89 | 88.5% | 72.7% | 23:11 | 4:59 | |
| PHI @ EDM | 41.7% | 0.54 | 82.0% | 51.2% | 69.2% | 3.17 | 81.0% | 60.1% | 23:13 | 4:12 | |
| TBL @ BUF | 42.0% | 0.54 | 81.3% | 49.9% | 67.8% | 3.11 | 80.2% | 58.9% | 21:36 | 5:14 | |
| PHI @ EDM | 44.3% | 0.58 | 74.3% | 39.3% | 53.8% | 3.18 | 81.1% | 60.3% | 21:47 | 4:15 | |
| TBL @ BUF | 42.2% | 0.55 | 68.3% | 31.9% | 45.1% | 2.88 | 76.7% | 53.9% | 21:24 | 5:09 | |
| NSH @ ANA | 42.7% | 0.56 | 63.2% | 26.4% | 35.8% | 4.06 | 89.9% | 75.2% | 18:27 | 4:35 | |
| NSH @ ANA | 31.7% | 0.38 | 64.1% | 27.4% | 47.5% | 2.43 | 68.6% | 43.3% | 20:39 | 4:39 | |
| NSH @ ANA | 27.7% | 0.32 | 60.5% | 23.8% | 45.4% | 2.16 | 62.5% | 36.5% | 20:57 | 4:30 | |
| PIT @ SJS | 34.0% | 0.42 | 61.1% | 24.4% | 41.1% | 2.51 | 70.2% | 45.3% | 20:02 | 4:43 | |
| NSH @ ANA | 38.4% | 0.49 | 67.0% | 30.4% | 46.3% | 2.98 | 78.3% | 56.2% | 20:02 | 3:44 | |
| NSH @ ANA | 35.4% | 0.44 | 63.6% | 26.9% | 43.7% | 2.73 | 74.4% | 50.7% | 19:25 | 4:15 | |
| NYR @ CGY | 32.7% | 0.40 | 63.5% | 26.7% | 45.7% | 2.50 | 70.0% | 45.1% | 20:52 | 3:08 | |
| UTA @ VGK | 35.2% | 0.43 | 69.9% | 33.8% | 53.5% | 2.78 | 75.2% | 51.8% | 20:07 | 3:12 | |
| TBL @ BUF | 36.6% | 0.46 | 63.2% | 26.5% | 42.1% | 2.96 | 78.0% | 55.7% | 19:43 | 3:25 | |
| TBL @ BUF | 39.0% | 0.50 | 61.3% | 24.6% | 36.6% | 3.20 | 81.4% | 60.7% | 19:03 | 3:40 | |
| PIT @ SJS | 38.7% | 0.49 | 61.2% | 24.5% | 36.8% | 2.64 | 72.6% | 48.4% | 19:54 | 3:33 | |
| NSH @ ANA | 28.6% | 0.34 | 60.7% | 24.0% | 45.0% | 1.94 | 56.9% | 30.7% | 21:04 | 3:35 | |
| PIT @ SJS | 36.3% | 0.45 | 69.0% | 32.7% | 51.3% | 2.41 | 68.1% | 42.8% | 19:44 | 3:41 | |
| UTA @ VGK | 28.7% | 0.34 | 68.0% | 31.6% | 55.2% | 2.02 | 59.1% | 32.9% | 20:14 | 3:28 | |
| UTA @ VGK | 28.4% | 0.33 | 66.8% | 30.2% | 53.6% | 2.42 | 68.4% | 43.1% | 19:15 | 3:41 | |
| TBL @ BUF | 26.0% | 0.30 | 54.7% | 18.8% | 38.8% | 2.18 | 63.1% | 37.1% | 19:44 | 3:26 | |
| NSH @ ANA | 34.4% | 0.42 | 57.3% | 20.9% | 34.8% | 2.50 | 70.1% | 45.1% | 18:37 | 3:50 | |
| NYR @ CGY | 29.4% | 0.35 | 62.1% | 25.4% | 46.4% | 2.13 | 61.8% | 35.7% | 19:46 | 2:48 | |
| PIT @ SJS | 19.1% | 0.21 | 47.2% | 13.5% | 34.7% | 1.33 | 38.0% | 15.2% | 19:56 | 3:58 | |
| NSH @ ANA | 27.6% | 0.32 | 55.8% | 19.7% | 39.0% | 2.48 | 69.7% | 44.7% | 18:16 | 3:23 | |
| NYR @ CGY | 30.9% | 0.37 | 56.6% | 20.4% | 37.2% | 2.31 | 65.9% | 40.3% | 18:39 | 3:07 | |
| UTA @ VGK | 30.3% | 0.36 | 57.7% | 21.3% | 39.3% | 1.81 | 53.3% | 27.4% | 18:43 | 3:42 | |
| NYR @ CGY | 27.7% | 0.32 | 51.3% | 16.3% | 32.7% | 2.20 | 63.5% | 37.5% | 19:42 | 2:18 | |
| TBL @ BUF | 29.6% | 0.35 | 54.5% | 18.7% | 35.4% | 2.41 | 68.3% | 43.0% | 17:33 | 3:43 | |
| UTA @ VGK | 34.0% | 0.42 | 57.2% | 20.9% | 35.1% | 2.56 | 71.2% | 46.6% | 17:10 | 3:42 | |
| UTA @ VGK | 30.6% | 0.37 | 62.8% | 26.0% | 46.4% | 1.88 | 55.4% | 29.3% | 18:38 | 2:59 | |
| PHI @ EDM | 33.2% | 0.40 | 48.1% | 14.0% | 22.2% | 2.32 | 66.3% | 40.7% | 17:53 | 3:24 | |
| UTA @ VGK | 26.6% | 0.31 | 54.9% | 19.0% | 38.5% | 2.07 | 60.4% | 34.2% | 17:34 | 3:36 | |
| NYR @ CGY | 35.1% | 0.43 | 52.6% | 17.2% | 27.0% | 2.87 | 76.6% | 53.7% | 16:42 | 2:54 | |
| PIT @ SJS | 28.9% | 0.34 | 61.4% | 24.7% | 45.8% | 2.26 | 65.0% | 39.2% | 17:47 | 2:27 | |
| TBL @ BUF | 23.5% | 0.27 | 47.0% | 13.3% | 30.7% | 1.87 | 55.1% | 29.0% | 17:46 | 3:26 | |
| NYR @ CGY | 25.6% | 0.30 | 51.3% | 16.3% | 34.6% | 2.25 | 64.7% | 38.8% | 17:55 | 2:26 | |
| PIT @ SJS | 26.6% | 0.31 | 51.8% | 16.6% | 34.3% | 1.88 | 55.2% | 29.1% | 16:49 | 4:02 | |
| PHI @ EDM | 22.8% | 0.26 | 49.2% | 14.8% | 34.2% | 1.89 | 55.6% | 29.4% | 17:37 | 3:07 | |
| PHI @ EDM | 23.4% | 0.27 | 49.9% | 15.3% | 34.5% | 1.77 | 52.2% | 26.4% | 16:52 | 3:50 | |
| PIT @ SJS | 27.5% | 0.32 | 48.7% | 14.4% | 29.2% | 2.15 | 62.2% | 36.2% | 17:14 | 2:51 | |
| NYR @ CGY | 23.9% | 0.27 | 50.4% | 15.6% | 34.9% | 2.09 | 60.9% | 34.7% | 17:01 | 2:24 | |
| NYR @ CGY | 22.4% | 0.25 | 44.7% | 12.0% | 28.8% | 1.94 | 57.0% | 30.8% | 18:18 | 1:19 | |
| NYR @ CGY | 21.6% | 0.24 | 41.8% | 10.3% | 25.8% | 2.26 | 64.9% | 39.1% | 19:07 | 0:06 | |
| PIT @ SJS | 24.3% | 0.28 | 48.9% | 14.6% | 32.5% | 1.63 | 47.9% | 22.7% | 15:33 | 3:58 | |
| PHI @ EDM | 19.7% | 0.22 | 38.4% | 8.6% | 23.4% | 1.67 | 49.3% | 23.8% | 17:09 | 2:37 | |
| PHI @ EDM | 21.4% | 0.24 | 48.4% | 14.2% | 34.3% | 1.83 | 53.9% | 27.9% | 17:05 | 2:06 | |
| NYR @ CGY | 25.8% | 0.30 | 45.9% | 12.7% | 27.2% | 1.90 | 55.8% | 29.6% | 16:55 | 2:01 | |
| UTA @ VGK | 19.7% | 0.22 | 45.4% | 12.4% | 32.0% | 1.50 | 43.9% | 19.5% | 18:23 | 1:07 | |
| NSH @ ANA | 20.2% | 0.23 | 42.0% | 10.4% | 27.3% | 1.90 | 55.8% | 29.7% | 16:49 | 2:10 | |
| PHI @ EDM | 23.7% | 0.27 | 46.5% | 13.1% | 29.9% | 1.88 | 55.2% | 29.1% | 15:36 | 3:05 | |
| UTA @ VGK | 28.6% | 0.34 | 49.4% | 15.0% | 29.2% | 2.06 | 60.0% | 33.8% | 14:56 | 3:14 | |
| PHI @ EDM | 18.1% | 0.20 | 40.6% | 9.6% | 27.4% | 1.53 | 44.8% | 20.1% | 17:48 | 1:20 | |
| PIT @ SJS | 26.9% | 0.31 | 51.6% | 16.5% | 33.8% | 1.94 | 57.0% | 30.9% | 15:27 | 2:35 | |
| NYR @ CGY | 23.9% | 0.27 | 42.1% | 10.5% | 23.9% | 2.03 | 59.2% | 33.0% | 16:38 | 1:33 | |
| TBL @ BUF | 23.1% | 0.26 | 44.5% | 11.8% | 27.8% | 1.66 | 48.9% | 23.5% | 16:45 | 1:56 | |
| UTA @ VGK | 23.0% | 0.26 | 42.6% | 10.7% | 25.4% | 1.80 | 53.1% | 27.1% | 17:11 | 1:13 | |
| NYR @ CGY | 20.5% | 0.23 | 44.1% | 11.6% | 29.7% | 1.67 | 49.2% | 23.7% | 15:41 | 2:29 | |
| NSH @ ANA | 17.8% | 0.20 | 34.1% | 6.6% | 19.8% | 1.74 | 51.3% | 25.5% | 17:05 | 1:10 | |
| PIT @ SJS | 21.6% | 0.24 | 40.0% | 9.4% | 23.4% | 1.96 | 57.6% | 31.4% | 15:55 | 1:28 | |
| PIT @ SJS | 20.7% | 0.23 | 44.6% | 11.9% | 30.1% | 1.50 | 43.8% | 19.4% | 15:35 | 2:16 | |
| PHI @ EDM | 20.0% | 0.22 | 33.4% | 6.3% | 16.7% | 1.78 | 52.3% | 26.5% | 16:00 | 1:43 | |
| PIT @ SJS | 22.8% | 0.26 | 43.1% | 11.0% | 26.3% | 2.08 | 60.5% | 34.4% | 13:16 | 3:13 | |
| PHI @ EDM | 18.5% | 0.20 | 39.8% | 9.3% | 26.2% | 1.68 | 49.5% | 24.0% | 14:32 | 2:40 | |
| NYR @ CGY | 19.2% | 0.21 | 35.9% | 7.4% | 20.6% | 1.55 | 45.3% | 20.5% | 16:22 | 0:54 | |
| PIT @ SJS | 24.3% | 0.28 | 44.1% | 11.6% | 26.1% | 1.93 | 56.7% | 30.5% | 14:32 | 1:31 | |
| PHI @ EDM | 21.2% | 0.24 | 37.0% | 7.9% | 20.1% | 2.19 | 63.3% | 37.3% | 14:25 | 1:24 | |
| UTA @ VGK | 22.6% | 0.26 | 42.2% | 10.5% | 25.4% | 1.67 | 49.0% | 23.6% | 14:14 | 2:12 | |
| NSH @ ANA | 14.7% | 0.16 | 32.3% | 5.9% | 20.6% | 1.32 | 37.9% | 15.2% | 17:15 | 0:01 | |
| PHI @ EDM | 19.2% | 0.21 | 35.6% | 7.3% | 20.3% | 1.71 | 50.4% | 24.8% | 15:01 | 1:18 | |
| TBL @ BUF | 20.4% | 0.23 | 37.2% | 8.0% | 21.1% | 1.70 | 50.2% | 24.6% | 14:47 | 1:21 | |
| TBL @ BUF | 15.4% | 0.17 | 33.2% | 6.2% | 21.0% | 1.40 | 40.7% | 17.1% | 16:30 | 0:08 | |
| UTA @ VGK | 20.5% | 0.23 | 38.3% | 8.5% | 22.4% | 1.80 | 52.9% | 27.0% | 13:08 | 2:37 | |
| NSH @ ANA | 14.2% | 0.15 | 34.8% | 6.9% | 24.0% | 1.09 | 29.5% | 10.0% | 15:36 | 1:20 | |
| UTA @ VGK | 19.5% | 0.22 | 45.5% | 12.4% | 32.4% | 1.36 | 39.2% | 16.1% | 15:02 | 0:59 | |
| TBL @ BUF | 20.8% | 0.23 | 39.2% | 8.9% | 23.3% | 1.57 | 46.2% | 21.3% | 13:38 | 2:06 | |
| UTA @ VGK | 16.6% | 0.18 | 35.1% | 7.1% | 22.2% | 1.57 | 46.1% | 21.2% | 14:50 | 0:57 | |
| NSH @ ANA | 17.9% | 0.20 | 37.5% | 8.1% | 23.8% | 1.48 | 43.3% | 19.0% | 14:10 | 1:33 | |
| UTA @ VGK | 21.7% | 0.25 | 38.1% | 8.4% | 21.0% | 1.81 | 53.4% | 27.4% | 14:14 | 0:53 | |
| NSH @ ANA | 17.2% | 0.19 | 34.9% | 7.0% | 21.4% | 1.29 | 36.7% | 14.4% | 14:18 | 1:44 | |
| PHI @ EDM | 14.2% | 0.15 | 36.1% | 7.5% | 25.5% | 1.06 | 28.6% | 9.5% | 13:39 | 2:37 | |
| NSH @ ANA | 19.2% | 0.21 | 30.7% | 5.3% | 14.2% | 1.51 | 44.3% | 19.8% | 15:36 | 0:00 | |
| NYR @ CGY | 16.2% | 0.18 | 38.2% | 8.4% | 26.3% | 1.55 | 45.4% | 20.7% | 14:21 | 1:02 | |
| UTA @ VGK | 16.5% | 0.18 | 30.4% | 5.2% | 16.7% | 1.43 | 41.5% | 17.7% | 15:26 | 0:08 | |
| TBL @ BUF | 14.7% | 0.16 | 34.2% | 6.6% | 22.8% | 1.16 | 32.2% | 11.5% | 14:32 | 1:11 | |
| PHI @ EDM | 13.0% | 0.14 | 31.8% | 5.7% | 21.6% | 1.28 | 36.5% | 14.2% | 15:23 | 0:11 | |
| UTA @ VGK | 18.2% | 0.20 | 32.5% | 6.0% | 17.5% | 1.29 | 36.8% | 14.5% | 15:03 | 0:19 | |
| TBL @ BUF | 11.8% | 0.13 | 34.2% | 6.7% | 25.4% | 0.97 | 25.5% | 7.8% | 14:57 | 0:54 | |
| PHI @ EDM | 15.4% | 0.17 | 28.2% | 4.4% | 15.1% | 1.50 | 43.7% | 19.3% | 14:00 | 1:00 | |
| PIT @ SJS | 15.9% | 0.17 | 32.0% | 5.8% | 19.2% | 1.25 | 35.2% | 13.4% | 14:46 | 0:28 | |
| TBL @ BUF | 16.4% | 0.18 | 32.6% | 6.0% | 19.3% | 1.47 | 42.8% | 18.7% | 14:02 | 0:39 | |
| TBL @ BUF | 15.5% | 0.17 | 28.9% | 4.6% | 15.9% | 1.40 | 40.5% | 16.9% | 14:47 | 0:01 | |
| TBL @ BUF | 15.8% | 0.17 | 31.9% | 5.8% | 19.2% | 1.21 | 34.1% | 12.7% | 13:29 | 1:30 | |
| NYR @ CGY | 17.1% | 0.19 | 35.3% | 7.1% | 21.9% | 1.44 | 41.9% | 18.0% | 13:16 | 1:03 | |
| TBL @ BUF | 12.7% | 0.14 | 23.2% | 2.9% | 12.1% | 1.27 | 36.2% | 14.0% | 14:41 | 0:04 | |
| NSH @ ANA | 18.3% | 0.20 | 34.8% | 6.9% | 20.2% | 1.77 | 52.2% | 26.3% | 13:10 | 0:26 | |
| NYR @ CGY | 17.3% | 0.19 | 35.7% | 7.3% | 22.2% | 1.54 | 45.1% | 20.4% | 12:23 | 1:31 | |
| PIT @ SJS | 14.6% | 0.16 | 29.9% | 5.0% | 18.0% | 1.41 | 41.0% | 17.3% | 14:01 | 0:02 | |
| PIT @ SJS | 19.0% | 0.21 | 31.5% | 5.6% | 15.5% | 1.72 | 50.5% | 24.9% | 13:20 | 0:05 | |
| TBL @ BUF | 10.8% | 0.11 | 32.1% | 5.8% | 23.8% | 0.98 | 25.9% | 8.0% | 14:30 | 0:05 | |
| UTA @ VGK | 16.4% | 0.18 | 34.4% | 6.8% | 21.5% | 1.19 | 33.1% | 12.1% | 12:49 | 1:19 | |
| PIT @ SJS | 15.4% | 0.17 | 34.0% | 6.6% | 22.0% | 1.13 | 31.1% | 10.9% | 12:23 | 1:37 | |
| PHI @ EDM | 11.7% | 0.12 | 27.5% | 4.2% | 17.9% | 1.08 | 29.4% | 9.9% | 14:05 | 0:12 | |
| NSH @ ANA | 12.1% | 0.13 | 24.8% | 3.4% | 14.4% | 1.15 | 31.8% | 11.3% | 14:05 | 0:09 | |
| NYR @ CGY | 12.8% | 0.14 | 31.0% | 5.4% | 20.8% | 1.37 | 39.4% | 16.2% | 13:32 | 0:05 | |
| UTA @ VGK | 15.7% | 0.17 | 30.4% | 5.2% | 17.4% | 1.61 | 47.2% | 22.1% | 11:55 | 1:14 | |
| PIT @ SJS | 11.8% | 0.13 | 28.6% | 4.5% | 19.0% | 1.09 | 29.8% | 10.2% | 13:43 | 0:01 | |
| NYR @ CGY | 12.3% | 0.13 | 29.0% | 4.7% | 19.0% | 1.04 | 27.7% | 9.0% | 13:40 | 0:06 | |
| NYR @ CGY | 14.1% | 0.15 | 30.3% | 5.1% | 18.9% | 1.30 | 37.0% | 14.6% | 12:17 | 0:45 | |
| NSH @ ANA | 13.5% | 0.15 | 27.7% | 4.3% | 16.4% | 1.40 | 40.5% | 16.9% | 11:44 | 1:07 | |
| PIT @ SJS | 16.8% | 0.18 | 32.8% | 6.1% | 19.2% | 1.44 | 41.7% | 17.8% | 11:49 | 0:43 | |
| PHI @ EDM | 10.6% | 0.11 | 19.8% | 2.1% | 10.3% | 1.07 | 28.9% | 9.7% | 13:22 | 0:02 | |
| PHI @ EDM | 9.7% | 0.10 | 20.0% | 2.1% | 11.4% | 0.95 | 24.7% | 7.4% | 13:08 | 0:10 | |
| TBL @ BUF | 13.0% | 0.14 | 24.2% | 3.2% | 12.8% | 1.18 | 33.0% | 12.0% | 11:36 | 1:05 | |
| UTA @ VGK | 11.3% | 0.12 | 24.9% | 3.4% | 15.3% | 1.03 | 27.3% | 8.8% | 12:47 | 0:03 | |
| UTA @ VGK | 8.4% | 0.09 | 20.9% | 2.4% | 13.7% | 0.85 | 21.1% | 5.8% | 13:07 | 0:02 | |
| PHI @ EDM | 13.1% | 0.14 | 27.2% | 4.1% | 16.2% | 1.28 | 36.4% | 14.2% | 11:05 | 1:08 | |
| PIT @ SJS | 13.1% | 0.14 | 34.0% | 6.6% | 24.0% | 1.04 | 27.9% | 9.1% | 11:33 | 0:50 | |
| NYR @ CGY | 11.3% | 0.12 | 28.4% | 4.5% | 19.3% | 0.91 | 23.2% | 6.7% | 12:36 | 0:00 | |
| TBL @ BUF | 12.1% | 0.13 | 26.7% | 3.9% | 16.7% | 1.26 | 35.5% | 13.6% | 11:14 | 0:49 | |
| PHI @ EDM | 9.6% | 0.10 | 22.7% | 2.8% | 14.6% | 0.91 | 23.0% | 6.7% | 12:22 | 0:04 | |
| PHI @ EDM | 9.5% | 0.10 | 20.9% | 2.3% | 12.6% | 1.05 | 28.2% | 9.3% | 11:59 | 0:03 | |
| NYR @ CGY | 11.3% | 0.12 | 23.7% | 3.1% | 13.9% | 1.22 | 34.5% | 12.9% | 11:08 | 0:27 | |
| PIT @ SJS | 9.2% | 0.10 | 22.1% | 2.7% | 14.3% | 0.93 | 24.0% | 7.1% | 11:52 | 0:04 | |
| TBL @ BUF | 8.0% | 0.08 | 17.2% | 1.6% | 10.0% | 0.77 | 18.3% | 4.6% | 12:11 | 0:01 | |
| NSH @ ANA | 10.0% | 0.11 | 23.6% | 3.0% | 15.1% | 1.13 | 31.1% | 10.9% | 10:30 | 0:35 | |
| NSH @ ANA | 10.7% | 0.11 | 23.3% | 2.9% | 14.1% | 1.04 | 28.0% | 9.2% | 10:37 | 0:30 | |
| UTA @ VGK | 8.3% | 0.09 | 20.7% | 2.3% | 13.5% | 0.64 | 13.6% | 2.9% | 11:28 | 0:01 | |
| PHI @ EDM | 8.0% | 0.08 | 18.8% | 1.9% | 11.7% | 0.81 | 19.7% | 5.2% | 10:45 | 0:16 | |
| TBL @ BUF | 7.3% | 0.08 | 17.3% | 1.6% | 10.8% | 0.63 | 13.3% | 2.8% | 11:14 | 0:01 | |
| NSH @ ANA | 10.5% | 0.11 | 21.4% | 2.5% | 12.2% | 1.20 | 33.4% | 12.3% | 9:51 | 0:02 | |
| NSH @ ANA | 8.9% | 0.09 | 18.6% | 1.9% | 10.7% | 0.93 | 24.1% | 7.1% | 10:20 | 0:00 | |
| NSH @ ANA | 10.1% | 0.11 | 23.7% | 3.1% | 15.1% | 1.06 | 28.7% | 9.5% | 8:47 | 1:02 | |
| UTA @ VGK | 9.9% | 0.10 | 18.3% | 1.8% | 9.3% | 1.11 | 30.4% | 10.5% | 9:50 | 0:01 | |
| TBL @ BUF | 9.7% | 0.10 | 20.2% | 2.2% | 11.6% | 0.95 | 24.7% | 7.4% | 9:59 | 0:02 | |
| PIT @ SJS | 6.8% | 0.07 | 13.8% | 1.0% | 7.6% | 0.76 | 17.6% | 4.3% | 10:18 | 0:02 | |
| NSH @ ANA | 8.8% | 0.09 | 20.5% | 2.3% | 12.9% | 0.96 | 25.1% | 7.6% | 9:41 | 0:05 | |
| PIT @ SJS | 7.5% | 0.08 | 14.6% | 1.1% | 7.7% | 0.85 | 21.0% | 5.7% | 9:45 | 0:05 | |
| PHI @ EDM | 7.9% | 0.08 | 15.4% | 1.2% | 8.1% | 0.88 | 22.0% | 6.2% | 8:32 | 0:45 | |
| TBL @ BUF | 7.5% | 0.08 | 15.8% | 1.3% | 9.0% | 0.86 | 21.4% | 5.9% | 9:18 | 0:01 | |
| NYR @ CGY | 8.8% | 0.09 | 19.1% | 2.0% | 11.3% | 0.87 | 21.8% | 6.1% | 8:42 | 0:10 | |
| UTA @ VGK | 8.5% | 0.09 | 16.3% | 1.4% | 8.5% | 0.87 | 21.6% | 6.0% | 8:52 | 0:00 | |
| NYR @ CGY | 9.0% | 0.09 | 18.5% | 1.8% | 10.5% | 0.86 | 21.4% | 5.9% | 8:30 | 0:07 | |
| NYR @ CGY | 5.0% | 0.05 | 10.1% | 0.5% | 5.3% | 0.56 | 10.9% | 2.0% | 6:42 | 0:00 |
Defense
| NSH @ ANA | 14.7% | 0.16 | 59.2% | 22.6% | 52.1% | 1.73 | 51.0% | 25.3% | 27:48 | 4:36 | |
| NSH @ ANA | 19.5% | 0.22 | 62.8% | 26.0% | 53.8% | 2.62 | 72.4% | 48.1% | 25:54 | 3:49 | |
| PHI @ EDM | 20.3% | 0.23 | 63.9% | 27.1% | 54.7% | 2.63 | 72.5% | 48.2% | 23:58 | 4:22 | |
| UTA @ VGK | 12.7% | 0.14 | 54.2% | 18.4% | 47.5% | 1.91 | 56.0% | 29.9% | 25:15 | 3:32 | |
| NYR @ CGY | 14.3% | 0.15 | 65.7% | 29.0% | 60.0% | 1.77 | 52.3% | 26.4% | 24:10 | 4:01 | |
| TBL @ BUF | 17.0% | 0.19 | 56.0% | 19.8% | 46.9% | 2.40 | 68.0% | 42.7% | 23:46 | 3:43 | |
| PIT @ SJS | 17.4% | 0.19 | 61.1% | 24.3% | 52.9% | 2.29 | 65.6% | 39.9% | 23:43 | 3:45 | |
| TBL @ BUF | 9.3% | 0.10 | 39.4% | 9.1% | 33.2% | 1.48 | 43.1% | 18.9% | 23:34 | 1:35 | |
| PHI @ EDM | 8.0% | 0.08 | 32.4% | 5.9% | 26.5% | 1.29 | 36.6% | 14.3% | 22:28 | 2:53 | |
| UTA @ VGK | 11.4% | 0.12 | 43.3% | 11.1% | 36.0% | 1.69 | 49.6% | 24.1% | 22:30 | 1:32 | |
| TBL @ BUF | 13.2% | 0.14 | 47.2% | 13.5% | 39.1% | 1.92 | 56.3% | 30.1% | 19:36 | 3:54 | |
| PHI @ EDM | 9.8% | 0.10 | 31.5% | 5.6% | 24.0% | 1.38 | 39.9% | 16.6% | 23:42 | 0:32 | |
| UTA @ VGK | 8.7% | 0.09 | 30.4% | 5.2% | 23.8% | 1.67 | 49.2% | 23.7% | 22:21 | 0:47 | |
| TBL @ BUF | 9.2% | 0.10 | 41.2% | 10.0% | 35.2% | 1.44 | 41.8% | 17.9% | 19:12 | 3:46 | |
| TBL @ BUF | 7.2% | 0.07 | 30.8% | 5.3% | 25.4% | 1.31 | 37.5% | 14.9% | 23:24 | 0:03 | |
| NYR @ CGY | 7.8% | 0.08 | 29.9% | 5.0% | 24.0% | 1.46 | 42.4% | 18.3% | 22:27 | 0:31 | |
| PIT @ SJS | 8.7% | 0.09 | 32.8% | 6.1% | 26.5% | 1.67 | 49.2% | 23.7% | 21:14 | 1:11 | |
| NYR @ CGY | 9.9% | 0.10 | 34.7% | 6.9% | 27.5% | 1.51 | 44.1% | 19.6% | 21:37 | 0:59 | |
| PIT @ SJS | 9.3% | 0.10 | 40.0% | 9.4% | 33.9% | 1.65 | 48.5% | 23.2% | 20:31 | 1:36 | |
| NYR @ CGY | 11.7% | 0.12 | 36.0% | 7.4% | 27.6% | 1.56 | 45.9% | 21.0% | 19:31 | 2:31 | |
| UTA @ VGK | 11.3% | 0.12 | 33.1% | 6.2% | 24.6% | 1.69 | 49.8% | 24.2% | 20:13 | 1:19 | |
| NSH @ ANA | 6.7% | 0.07 | 29.7% | 4.9% | 24.6% | 1.26 | 35.6% | 13.7% | 21:15 | 1:02 | |
| PHI @ EDM | 5.7% | 0.06 | 27.4% | 4.2% | 23.0% | 0.91 | 23.3% | 6.8% | 21:45 | 0:57 | |
| PIT @ SJS | 8.5% | 0.09 | 25.9% | 3.7% | 19.0% | 1.74 | 51.3% | 25.6% | 21:04 | 0:02 | |
| PHI @ EDM | 8.0% | 0.08 | 31.7% | 5.7% | 25.8% | 1.43 | 41.6% | 17.7% | 20:25 | 0:31 | |
| NYR @ CGY | 4.0% | 0.04 | 20.6% | 2.3% | 17.3% | 0.95 | 24.6% | 7.4% | 21:36 | 0:02 | |
| NYR @ CGY | 4.3% | 0.04 | 25.2% | 3.5% | 21.8% | 0.89 | 22.3% | 6.3% | 21:11 | 0:10 | |
| PHI @ EDM | 6.1% | 0.06 | 21.2% | 2.4% | 16.1% | 0.99 | 26.1% | 8.2% | 20:52 | 0:20 | |
| UTA @ VGK | 7.8% | 0.08 | 27.8% | 4.3% | 21.7% | 1.43 | 41.4% | 17.6% | 20:06 | 0:09 | |
| UTA @ VGK | 5.9% | 0.06 | 23.3% | 3.0% | 18.5% | 1.12 | 30.9% | 10.8% | 20:42 | 0:02 | |
| NSH @ ANA | 6.2% | 0.06 | 29.4% | 4.8% | 24.7% | 1.25 | 35.5% | 13.6% | 19:57 | 0:05 | |
| NYR @ CGY | 5.3% | 0.05 | 21.5% | 2.5% | 17.1% | 1.38 | 39.7% | 16.4% | 19:46 | 0:08 | |
| TBL @ BUF | 9.7% | 0.10 | 25.0% | 3.4% | 16.9% | 1.62 | 47.5% | 22.4% | 19:01 | 0:19 | |
| PHI @ EDM | 3.6% | 0.04 | 16.2% | 1.4% | 13.0% | 1.02 | 27.2% | 8.7% | 19:56 | 0:04 | |
| NSH @ ANA | 4.5% | 0.05 | 21.0% | 2.4% | 17.3% | 0.93 | 24.1% | 7.1% | 19:52 | 0:05 | |
| NSH @ ANA | 6.5% | 0.07 | 23.6% | 3.0% | 18.3% | 1.09 | 29.6% | 10.0% | 19:19 | 0:13 | |
| NSH @ ANA | 7.4% | 0.08 | 31.8% | 5.7% | 26.3% | 1.30 | 37.0% | 14.6% | 17:57 | 1:00 | |
| PHI @ EDM | 5.8% | 0.06 | 30.2% | 5.1% | 25.9% | 1.09 | 29.7% | 10.1% | 17:56 | 1:11 | |
| UTA @ VGK | 3.9% | 0.04 | 19.1% | 1.9% | 15.8% | 0.98 | 25.8% | 8.0% | 19:29 | 0:01 | |
| PIT @ SJS | 5.9% | 0.06 | 29.7% | 4.9% | 25.3% | 1.07 | 29.0% | 9.7% | 18:50 | 0:06 | |
| NYR @ CGY | 5.2% | 0.05 | 21.2% | 2.4% | 16.9% | 0.99 | 26.1% | 8.2% | 19:12 | 0:00 | |
| NSH @ ANA | 4.6% | 0.05 | 20.2% | 2.2% | 16.4% | 0.93 | 24.0% | 7.1% | 19:06 | 0:08 | |
| TBL @ BUF | 5.9% | 0.06 | 20.6% | 2.3% | 15.6% | 1.06 | 28.7% | 9.5% | 18:42 | 0:05 | |
| PIT @ SJS | 5.7% | 0.06 | 35.1% | 7.0% | 31.1% | 0.98 | 25.8% | 8.0% | 16:06 | 2:26 | |
| PIT @ SJS | 6.0% | 0.06 | 22.8% | 2.8% | 17.9% | 1.36 | 39.1% | 16.0% | 18:00 | 0:10 | |
| PIT @ SJS | 5.6% | 0.06 | 21.4% | 2.5% | 16.7% | 0.96 | 24.8% | 7.5% | 18:19 | 0:07 | |
| TBL @ BUF | 6.9% | 0.07 | 27.9% | 4.3% | 22.6% | 1.17 | 32.6% | 11.8% | 17:17 | 0:38 | |
| NYR @ CGY | 4.1% | 0.04 | 19.6% | 2.1% | 16.1% | 1.04 | 27.8% | 9.0% | 18:17 | 0:00 | |
| PIT @ SJS | 6.9% | 0.07 | 19.8% | 2.1% | 13.9% | 1.19 | 33.2% | 12.2% | 17:48 | 0:04 | |
| PIT @ SJS | 6.4% | 0.07 | 31.9% | 5.7% | 27.2% | 1.12 | 30.8% | 10.7% | 15:18 | 2:13 | |
| TBL @ BUF | 4.0% | 0.04 | 19.8% | 2.1% | 16.5% | 0.97 | 25.5% | 7.9% | 17:57 | 0:04 | |
| PIT @ SJS | 4.8% | 0.05 | 27.8% | 4.3% | 24.2% | 0.94 | 24.4% | 7.3% | 17:45 | 0:01 | |
| UTA @ VGK | 4.6% | 0.05 | 15.8% | 1.3% | 11.7% | 1.07 | 28.8% | 9.6% | 17:23 | 0:01 | |
| TBL @ BUF | 3.8% | 0.04 | 21.3% | 2.5% | 18.3% | 0.76 | 17.7% | 4.4% | 17:26 | 0:02 | |
| PIT @ SJS | 4.4% | 0.04 | 19.8% | 2.1% | 16.2% | 1.08 | 29.2% | 9.8% | 16:55 | 0:00 | |
| TBL @ BUF | 3.7% | 0.04 | 18.6% | 1.9% | 15.5% | 0.91 | 23.0% | 6.6% | 17:11 | 0:01 | |
| PHI @ EDM | 4.0% | 0.04 | 16.6% | 1.5% | 13.1% | 0.96 | 25.1% | 7.7% | 16:45 | 0:01 | |
| UTA @ VGK | 5.2% | 0.05 | 15.8% | 1.3% | 11.2% | 0.95 | 24.6% | 7.4% | 16:35 | 0:01 | |
| NYR @ CGY | 3.4% | 0.03 | 15.4% | 1.2% | 12.4% | 0.71 | 16.0% | 3.7% | 16:14 | 0:02 | |
| NYR @ CGY | 4.5% | 0.05 | 18.5% | 1.8% | 14.6% | 1.05 | 28.1% | 9.2% | 15:29 | 0:02 | |
| NYR @ CGY | 4.7% | 0.05 | 22.2% | 2.7% | 18.4% | 1.18 | 33.0% | 12.0% | 13:41 | 0:38 | |
| PHI @ EDM | 3.1% | 0.03 | 12.1% | 0.8% | 9.3% | 0.75 | 17.5% | 4.3% | 15:08 | 0:05 | |
| NSH @ ANA | 2.7% | 0.03 | 18.6% | 1.8% | 16.4% | 0.79 | 19.0% | 4.9% | 14:55 | 0:02 | |
| NSH @ ANA | 3.0% | 0.03 | 16.1% | 1.4% | 13.5% | 0.54 | 10.5% | 1.9% | 15:17 | 0:00 | |
| PHI @ EDM | 2.2% | 0.02 | 9.0% | 0.4% | 6.9% | 0.68 | 14.9% | 3.3% | 14:39 | 0:00 | |
| UTA @ VGK | 4.3% | 0.04 | 15.5% | 1.3% | 11.7% | 1.15 | 31.9% | 11.4% | 13:22 | 0:01 | |
| UTA @ VGK | 3.5% | 0.04 | 15.5% | 1.3% | 12.4% | 0.77 | 18.2% | 4.5% | 13:42 | 0:01 | |
| NSH @ ANA | 3.3% | 0.03 | 15.9% | 1.3% | 13.1% | 0.78 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 13:18 | 0:01 | |
| PHI @ EDM | 1.9% | 0.02 | 11.6% | 0.7% | 9.8% | 0.66 | 14.5% | 3.2% | 13:04 | 0:01 | |
| NSH @ ANA | 2.7% | 0.03 | 12.1% | 0.8% | 9.7% | 0.59 | 11.8% | 2.3% | 12:18 | 0:04 | |
| TBL @ BUF | 2.5% | 0.03 | 12.4% | 0.8% | 10.2% | 0.58 | 11.8% | 2.3% | 11:53 | 0:02 |